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Tropical Cyclone WAKA
[Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean]
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Tropical Cyclone WAKA [Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean] |
WTPS21 PHNC 20011228 14:30z
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
2. AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
3. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
210 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.1S0 175.7W0 TO 15.6S2 174.7W9
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
281330Z7 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 10.7S8
175.0W3. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS. THE
NEXT SATELLITE INVESTIGATION IS SCHEDULED FOR 291200Z4.
4. REMARKS:
ENHANCED INFRARED ANIMATION DEPICTS SIGNIFICANT COVERAGE
EXPANSION OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER DURING THE PAST 6
HOURS. SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS SITUATED OVER THE
SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE BENEATH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
5. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
291430Z9.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PHNC 20011229 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
290000Z1 --- NEAR 10.8S9 174.1W3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.8S9 174.1W3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z4 --- 11.7S9 173.9W0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z3 --- 13.1S5 173.9W0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z6 --- 14.8S3 173.9W0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z4 --- 16.5S2 173.8W9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
290300Z4 POSITION NEAR 11.0S2 174.0W2
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P HAS DEVELOPED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF THE SAMOA ISLANDS IN THE SOUTHEAST PACIFIC OCEAN. TC
07P HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 282330Z8 MULTI-SPECTRAL AND RECENT
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS OVERALL IMPROVEMENT IN CLOUD BAND ORGANIZATION, WITH A
DEVELOPING BANDING FEATURE WRAPPING NORTH AND EAST OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
BUILD IN EAST OF TC 07P, AS AN UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES
AND DEEPENS WEST OF THE SYSTEM. AS A RESULT, A SOUTHWARD TRACK IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AVAILABLE NWP (NOGAPS, AVN,
AND THE UKMET GLOBAL) ALL AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO. 200MB ANALYSIS
AND UW CIMSS SHEAR PRODUCTS INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM IS UNDERNEATH
WEAK DIFLUENT WESTERLIES ALOFT, AND FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS IT REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z1 IS 10 FEET. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 281421Z DEC 01 TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 281430). NEXT WARNINGS AT
291500Z7 AND 300300Z6.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20011229 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (WAKA) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
291200Z4 --- NEAR 11.9S1 174.8W0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.9S1 174.8W0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z3 --- 13.0S4 175.1W4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z6 --- 14.2S7 175.1W4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z4 --- 15.7S3 175.0W3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z7 --- 17.6S4 174.6W8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
291500Z7 POSITION NEAR 12.2S5 174.9W1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (WAKA) IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 168 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE SAMOA ISLANDS, IN THE SOUTHEAST PACIFIC
OCEAN. TC 07P HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS DURING THE
PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 291130Z6 INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS OVERALL IMPROVEMENT IN CLOUD BAND ORGANIZATION, WITH A
DEVELOPING BANDING FEATURE WRAPPING NORTH AND EAST OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
BUILD IN SOUTHEAST OF TC 07P, AS AN UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES AND DEEPENS WEST OF THE SYSTEM. AS A RESULT, A SOUTHWARD
TRACK IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AVAILABLE NWP
(NOGAPS, AVN, AND THE UKMET GLOBAL) ALL AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO.
200MB ANALYSIS AND UW-CIMSS SHEAR PRODUCTS INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM
IS UNDERNEATH WEAK DIFLUENT WESTERLIES ALOFT, AND MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS IT REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z4 IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 300300Z6 AND 301500Z9.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PHNC 20011230 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (WAKA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z3 --- NEAR 13.1S5 176.0W4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.1S5 176.0W4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z6 --- 14.6S1 176.5W9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z4 --- 16.2S9 176.4W8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z7 --- 17.9S7 176.1W5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z1 --- 19.7S7 175.3W6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
300300Z6 POSITION NEAR 13.5S9 176.1W5
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (WAKA) IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM
WEST OF THE SAMOA ISLANDS, IN THE SOUTHEAST PACIFIC OCEAN. TC 07P
HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 292330Z9 INFRARED AND VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES OVERALL IMPROVEMENT IN CLOUD BAND ORGANIZATION, VERY GOOD
OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND A POSSIBLE BANDING EYE FEATURE. TC 07P IS
TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. AN UPSTREAM SHORT
WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN WEST OF THE SYSTEM, RESULTING IN A
MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK MIDWAY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AVAILABLE
NWP (NOGAPS, GFDN, AVN, AND THE UKMET GLOBAL) ALL AGREE WITH THIS
SCENARIO. 200MB ANALYSIS AND UW-CIMSS SHEAR PRODUCTS INDICATE THAT
THE SYSTEM IS UNDERNEATH WEAK DIFLUENT WESTERLIES ALOFT AND
FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
INTENSIFYING EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS IT REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT, AND THEN MAINTAIN INTENSITY AS IT ENCOUNTERS WESTERLY
SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z3 IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 301500Z9 AND
310300Z7.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PHNC 20011230 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (WAKA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
301200Z6 --- NEAR 14.2S7 175.8W1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S7 175.8W1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z4 --- 15.8S4 175.9W2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z7 --- 17.4S2 175.7W0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z1 --- 19.2S2 174.9W1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z4 --- 21.2S5 174.0W2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
301500Z9 POSITION NEAR 14.6S1 175.8W1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (WAKA) IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM
WEST OF THE SAMOA ISLANDS, IN THE SOUTHEAST PACIFIC OCEAN. TC 07P
HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 3011330Z1 INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 TO 102 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES OVERALL IMPROVEMENT IN CLOUD BAND ORGANIZATION, VERY GOOD
OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND A BANDING EYE FEATURE. TC 07P IS TRACKING
SOUTHWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. AN UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO DEEPEN WEST OF THE SYSTEM, RESULTING IN A MORE SOUTHWARD
TRACK MIDWAY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AVAILABLE NWP (NOGAPS,
GFDN, AVN, AND THE UKMET GLOBAL) ALL AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO. 200MB
ANALYSIS AND UW-CIMSS SHEAR PRODUCTS INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM IS
UNDERNEATH WEAK DIFLUENT WESTERLIES ALOFT AND FAVORABLE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING EARLY IN
THE PERIOD AS IT REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THEN MAINTAIN
INTENSITY AS IT ENCOUNTERS WESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING TROUGH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z6
IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 310300Z7 AND 311500Z0.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PHNC 20011231 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (WAKA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
310000Z4 --- NEAR 16.1S8 175.4W7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S8 175.4W7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z7 --- 18.4S3 174.9W1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z1 --- 20.7S9 174.0W2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z4 --- 23.4S9 172.3W3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z2 --- 26.0S8 170.6W4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
310300Z7 POSITION NEAR 16.7S4 175.3W6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (WAKA) IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF FIJI ISLANDS, IN THE SOUTHEAST PACIFIC OCEAN. TC
07P HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 302330Z1 INFRARED AND
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A RAGGED EYE FEATURE WITH WELL ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE SPIRAL BANDS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO ENCOUNTER WESTERLY SHEAR FROM THE MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. TC 07P IS TRACKING SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 07P SHOULD MAINTAIN THIS
TRACK THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE RIDGE MAINTAINS TO THE EAST, AND TC
07P BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
NORTHWESTERLIES. AVAILABLE NWP (NOGAPS, GFDN, AVN, AND THE UKMET
GLOBAL) ALL AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO. 200MB ANALYSIS AND UW-CIMSS
SHEAR PRODUCTS INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM IS UNDERNEATH DIFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT, BUT HAS BEGUN TO ENCOUNTER MARGINAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
CONDITIONS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY, AND
THEN SLIGHTLY WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310000Z4 IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 311500Z0 AND 010300Z4.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20011231 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (WAKA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
311200Z7 --- NEAR 18.3S2 174.2W4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.3S2 174.2W4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z1 --- 20.7S9 173.3W4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z4 --- 23.1S6 172.0W0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z2 --- 25.7S4 170.6W4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z5 --- 28.3S3 169.1W7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
311500Z0 POSITION NEAR 18.9S8 174.0W2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (WAKA) IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 395 NM
EAST OF THE FIJI ISLANDS, IN THE SOUTHEAST PACIFIC OCEAN. TC 07P HAS
TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 311130Z9 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 102 KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A
32 NM RAGGED EYE FEATURE WITH WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE SPIRAL
BANDS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS
BEGUN TO ENCOUNTER WESTERLY SHEAR FROM THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. TC 07P IS TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EAST
OF THE SYSTEM. TC 07P SHOULD MAINTAIN THIS TRACK THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS THE RIDGE MAINTAINS TO THE EAST, AND TC 07P BEGINS TO INTERACT
WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED NORTHWESTERLIES.
AVAILABLE NWP (NOGAPS, GFDN, AVN, AND THE UKMET GLOBAL) ALL AGREE
WITH THIS SCENARIO. 200 MB ANALYSIS AND UW-CIMSS SHEAR PRODUCTS
INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM IS UNDERNEATH DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT, BUT HAS
BEGUN TO ENCOUNTER MARGINAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY, AND THEN SLIGHTLY
WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING WESTERLIES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 311200Z7 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010300Z4 AND
011500Z7.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20020101 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (WAKA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z1 --- NEAR 22.1S5 171.1W0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 24 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.1S5 171.1W0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z4 --- 25.1S8 169.1W7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z2 --- 27.9S8 167.4W8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z5 --- 29.9S0 166.3W6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z3 --- 31.7S1 165.3W5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
010300Z4 POSITION NEAR 22.9S3 170.6W4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (WAKA), LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST PACIFIC
OCEAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 24 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 312330Z3 VISIBLE AND
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 AND 102 KNOTS. ANIMATION
DEPICTS A RATHER LARGE BANDING EYE FEATURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM. A POLEWARD PATTERN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH AN APPROACH OF A
MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY EAST OF NEW CALEDONIA. THEREFORE,
TC 07P SHOULD TRACK INCREASINGLY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD.
NWP (NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET-O, AVN) AGREES WITH THE SYNOPTIC SCENARIO
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A MINOR DISPARITY IN THE AVN RUN. AVN
INDICATES A SLOWER SPEED OF MOTION BEYOND 36 TAU AS A MID-LAT RIDGE
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE TROUGH BY 36 TAU. ALL OTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS
FAIL TO REFLECT THIS MID-LAT FEATURE. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A
BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE NWP. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
010000Z1 IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 011500Z7 AND 020300Z5.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20020101 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (WAKA) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z4 --- NEAR 25.6S3 169.2W8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 22 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.6S3 169.2W8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z2 --- 28.5S5 167.3W7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z5 --- 30.2S5 166.0W3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z3 --- 31.8S2 165.0W2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z6 --- 33.3S9 164.2W3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
011500Z7 POSITION NEAR 26.3S1 168.7W2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (WAKA), LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST PACIFIC
OCEAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 22 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 011130Z6 INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 77 KNOTS. ANIMATION DEPICTS THE DEEP
CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST LEAVING AN EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER APPROXIMATELY 30 NM TO THE NW. TC 07P IS
FORECAST TO TRACK INCREASINGLY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST-
NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO PASS SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM BETWEEN THE 24 TO 48 HOUR PERIOD. FOUR
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS (NOGAPS, GFDN, EGRR, AND AVN) DEPICT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A MID-LATITUDE RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES SOUTH OF TC 07P. AS A RESULT, THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO SLOW IN ITS SPEED OF ADVANCE AS THE DEVELOPING MID-
LATITUDE RIDGE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE. THE FORECAST IS BASED
ON A BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 011200Z4 IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020300Z5 AND
021500Z8.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20020102 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (WAKA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z2 --- NEAR 29.1S2 167.8W2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 29.1S2 167.8W2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z5 --- 30.7S0 167.5W9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
020300Z5 POSITION NEAR 29.5S6 167.7W1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (WAKA), LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST PACIFIC
OCEAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 13 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 012330Z9 INFRARED AND VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 AND 55 KNOTS. WATER VAPOR
ANIMATION AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICT A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE
BAROTROPIC CHARACTERISTICS OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. IT
APPEARS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY COMPLETED A TRANSITION TO AN
EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z2 IS
26 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
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Document: waka.html
Updated: 2nd January, 2002 |
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