Tropical Cyclones [Index]

Tropical Cyclone TRINA [Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean]

WTPS21 PGTW 20011130 11:00z
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
2. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 200 NM RADIUS OF 21.3S6 160.2W9 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.  WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED
TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 300900Z2 INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 21.7S0 159.5W0.  THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
3. REMARKS:
GOES ANIMATION DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER SITUATED ON THE TAIL END OF A WEAK SHEAR LINE. ANIMATION
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWLY BEEN
DEVELOPING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. TEMPS ON THE CONVECTIVE TOPS
ARE NOW NEAR -48 DEGREES CELSIUS. THE 24 HOUR TREND AT THE 200 MB
LEVEL SHOWS THE SYSTEM WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A CUT-OFF LOW WHICH
HAS OPENED UP INTO A TROUGH. THE UPPER-NORTHWESTERLIES DOWNSTREAM
OF THE TROUGH HAVE BECOME MORE DIFFLUENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
4. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
011100Z3.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PHNC 20011130 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (TRINA) WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   301200Z6 --- NEAR 22.2S6 159.8W3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 22.2S6 159.8W3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   010000Z1 --- 22.6S0 160.3W0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   011200Z4 --- 22.0S4 161.1W9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   020000Z2 --- 21.3S6 161.8W6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   021200Z5 --- 20.7S9 162.8W7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
    ---
REMARKS:
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (TRINA) HAS DEVELOPED AT THE TAIL END OF A WEAK
SHEAR LINE ABOUT 655 NM SOUTHWEST OF TAHITI. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P
(TRINA) HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 301122Z9 SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25
KNOTS AND SYNOPTIC/QUIKSCAT DATA INDICATING 35 KNOTS. A MID-LATITUDE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN OVER THE NEXT 18 HOURS CAUSING TC 06P
TO TURN EQUATORWARD. AVAILABLE NWP (NOGAPS, UKMET GLOBAL GRID-POINT,
AND THE AVN RUN OF THE MRF) AND THE LOW/MID BETA ADVECTION MODELS
AGREE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SCENARIO. LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN
INTENSITY IS FORECAST AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS JUST POLEWARD OF MODERATE
TO STRONG UPPER EASTERLIES THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z6 IS 9 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND
CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 301052Z NOV 01 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PHNC 301100). NEXT WARNINGS AT 010300Z4 AND
011500Z7.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20011201 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (TRINA) WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   010000Z1 --- NEAR 21.0S3 159.0W5
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 035 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.0S3 159.0W5
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   011200Z4 --- 20.6S8 158.3W7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
REMARKS:
010300Z4 POSITION NEAR 20.9S1 158.8W2
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (TRINA) LOCATED ABOUT 590 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
TAHITI, HAS BEEN TRACKING NORTHEAST AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 302330Z1 VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS AND SYNOPTIC/QUIKSCAT DATA
INDICATING 30 KNOTS. RECENT SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I)
AND TROPICAL RAINFALL MEASURING MISSION (TRMM) IMAGES DEPICT A LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTION LIMITED TO THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN
EXPOSED LLCC DECOUPLED FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION. UW CIMSS SHEAR
PRODUCTS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THAT THE SYSTEM HAS ENCOUNTERED
INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. TC 06P IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY AND CONTINUE TO ENCOUNTER
INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THEREFORE, THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS IT BECOMES DECOUPLED FROM ITS MID
LEVEL CIRCULATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z1 IS 9
FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//