[Index]
Monthly Global Tropical Cyclone Summary June 2002
[Summaries and Track Data] [Prepared by Gary Padgett]
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Monthly Global Tropical Cyclone Summary June 2002 [Summaries and Track Data] [Prepared by Gary Padgett] |
MONTHLY GLOBAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY
JUNE, 2002
(For general comments about the nature of these summaries, as well as
information on how to download the tabular cyclone track files, see
the Author's Note at the end of this summary.)
*************************************************************************
JUNE HIGHLIGHTS
--> Tropics rather quiet--two named storms in North Pacific
*************************************************************************
***** Feature of the Month for June *****
PATTERNS OF ATLANTIC INTENSE HURRICANE ACTIVITY
I had something else planned for the Feature of the Month spot, but
it will require some more work and correspondence, so in the interest
of getting the June summary out quickly, I'm substituting a "quickie".
This is an updating and revision of a response I'd written to an e-mail
posted on the WX-TALK discussion list several years ago. This dates
back to June, 1997, and a couple of messages had been posted on the
discussion list with which I disagreed, and so I wrote a rebuttal of
sorts, utilizing some statistics which I'd gleaned from the annual
track charts and the Best Track file.
The e-mails in question had made statements such as: (1) "With the
exception of Gilbert, there has been a notable absence of hurricanes,
especially westward-moving hurricanes, in the Caribbean."; and a reply
to that one (2) "This is very true. There has been a decided absence
of westward-moving, classic hurricanes penetrating the Caribbean and
reaching the Gulf of Mexico over the past 30 or so years." There was
a decided drop in the overall number of intense hurricanes (IH), storms
which reach Category 3 or higher on the Saffir/Simpson scale, after the
mid-1960s. But what is often overlooked is that from the mid-1960s
through the late 1980s, there was an INCREASE in major hurricanes
moving through the central Caribbean as compared with the period 1944-
1965. Below are presented three different measures which indicate
that the oft-referred to "downturn" period of the late 1960s through the
1980s was actually a more active period for IHs in certain portions of
the basin.
For purposes of this discussion I have defined an Atlantic intense
hurricane as a system which moved westward north of the easternmost
tip of the island of Hispaniola of at least tropical depression intensity
and was at Category 3+ status at some point west of there. A Caribbean
intense hurricane is a storm which moved westward south of the eastern-
most tip of Hispaniola and was of Category 3+ intensity west of that
point. I began with 1944 as that was the year in which aerial recon-
naissance of tropical cyclones was initiated on a regular basis and the
intensities can be considered somewhat reliable. During the period
1944-1962, the only examples of Caribbean IHs are (** indicates that
the storm was of hurricane intensity in the Gulf of Mexico):
Storm #4, 1944
Charlie, 1951 **
Hazel, 1954
Janet, 1955 **
From 1963-1998, the cases are:
Flora, 1963
Cleo, 1964
Inez, 1966 **
Beulah, 1967 **
Edith, 1971 **
Carmen, 1974 **
Greta, 1978
David, 1979
Frederic, 1979 **
Allen, 1980 **
Emily, 1987
Gilbert, 1988 **
Joan, 1988
However, from 1989 to the present the only examples are:
Georges, 1998 **
Iris, 2001
Camille of 1969 and Celia of 1970 almost fit into this group, as they
were strong tropical waves when they passed south of Hispaniola but did
not develop circulations until in the western Caribbean.
Another measure of the change in the pattern of IH tracks in the
1960s was the marked increase in the number of IH landfalls along the
U. S. Gulf of Mexico coastline. Between the Texas hurricane of August,
1942, and Carla in 1961, the only IH to make landfall on the U. S.
Gulf Coast west of Apalachicola was the anomalously early Audrey in
June, 1957. (Note: The Texas hurricane of August, 1945, is currently
classified as a Category 2 hurricane based on central pressure, but the
Best Track file indicates significantly higher winds. It is generally
agreed that many of the MSW entries in the Best Track file for intense
hurricanes are too high for years prior to around 1970. It will be
interesting to see how this hurricane is treated during the ongoing
re-analysis of the Atlantic hurricane database.)
From 1961 to 1985 there was a pronounced increase in major hurricanes
making landfall along the central and western Gulf Coast:
Carla, 1961 Frederic, 1979
Hilda, 1964 Allen, 1980
Betsy, 1965 Alicia, 1983
Camille, 1969 Elena, 1985
Celia, 1970 Andrew, 1992
Carmen, 1974 Opal, 1995
Eloise, 1975 Bret, 1999
With the exception of Betsy and Andrew, which entered the Gulf after
crossing the southern Florida Peninsula, all these major Gulf Coast
storms either originated in the Gulf of Mexico or came from the Caribbean
(including Elena which moved right over central Cuba).
The Mexican Gulf Coast and Central America are also regions which
experienced an increase in IH landfalls after the mid-1960s. The only
IHs to strike those regions between 1944 and 1965 were Charlie of 1951,
Janet of 1955, and Hattie of 1961. Hurricanes Janet and Hattie were
Category 5 hurricanes when they made landfall in Mexico (Yucatan) and
Belize, respectively. The Best Track file indicates that Hurricane
Hilda of 1955 made landfall near Tampico as a Category 2 hurricane,
although earlier it had been at Category 3 intensity in the Bay of
Campeche.
Since 1966 the following major hurricanes have struck Mexico and/or
Central America:
Inez, 1966 Mexico (Gulf)
Ella, 1970 Mexico (Gulf)
Edith, 1971 Central America
Carmen, 1974 Mexico (Yucatan)
Caroline, 1975 Mexico (Gulf)
Anita, 1977 Mexico (Gulf)
Greta, 1978 Central America
Gilbert, 1988 Mexico (Yucatan and Gulf)
Joan, 1988 Central America
Roxanne, 1995 Mexico (Yucatan)
Iris, 2001 Central America
Two near-misses in recent years as far as IH landfalls go were Mitch in
1998 and Keith in 2000. The torrential rains of Mitch were responsible
for catastrophic loss of life and damage in Honduras and Nicaragua, but
the storm had weakened from its intense Category 5 status into a minimal
hurricane by the time the center made landfall. Keith was of Category 4
intensity just off the southern Mexican Yucatan and northern Belize
coastlines, but had weakened into a strong tropical storm by the time
the center moved onshore.
Given that there was an overall decrease in the total number of IHs
after the mid-1960s, but a significant increase in the number moving
along the central Caribbean track, it follows that there must have been
a sharp decline in the number of Atlantic IHs moving north of Hispaniola.
That is indeed the case. During the 22 seasons from 1944 through 1965,
there were 25 Atlantic IHs as I've defined above. Indeed, Hurricanes
Charlie of 1952 and Frances of 1961 could be counted in this category
as they passed almost directly over the eastern tip of the Dominican
Republic as tropical storms and reached Category 3 intensity in the
western Atlantic. Also, the very intense Hurricane Easy of 1951 all but
reached the longitude of eastern Hispaniola, its point of recurvature
being very slightly east of due north of that location.
However, during the next 29 seasons (1966-1994) there were only ten
Atlantic IHs. After Faith of 1966, there was not another until Hurri-
cane Eloise of 1975 which, ironically, ultimately became an IH in the
Gulf of Mexico. Of these ten storms, Ella of 1978 was a higher latitude
development of subtropical origin, and Hurricane Kate of 1985 was an
anomalously late-season storm in the latter part of November which
followed a typical mid-season track into the Gulf of Mexico across
the northern coast of Cuba. This severe reduction in IHs tracking
north of the Greater Antilles led to a complete absence of IH landfalls
along the U. S. East Coast for a long period of time. No IH struck the
East Coast between Betsy of 1965 and Gloria of 1985 (and it's question-
able whether or not Gloria was a Category 3 hurricane at landfall, based
on the Best Track intensities). South Florida enjoyed a 27-year
"vacation" between Betsy and Andrew in 1992. South Carolina experienced
a 30-year gap in IH landfalls between Gracie in 1959 and Hugo in 1989.
New England enjoyed a 25-year break, at least in significant hurricane
strikes, from 1960 (Donna) to 1985 (Gloria). And Hurricane Fran in 1996
was the first clear-cut major hurricane (wind-wise) to strike North
Carolina since the mighty Hurricane Hazel of 1954.
Beginning with the hyperactive Atlantic season of 1995, however,
there has been a big turnaround in these north-of-Hispaniola IH tracks.
The 1995 and 1996 seasons alone produced seven such storms: Felix, Luis,
Marilyn, Bertha, Edouard, Fran and Hortense; and Bonnie of 1998 and
Floyd of 1999 fall into this category also. True, several of these were
"squeakers". Hortense almost passed directly over the tip of Hispaniola
while Luis' and Marilyn's points of recurvature were not far to the
west of the longitude of the eastern tip of the island. But Bertha,
Edouard and Fran of 1996 as well as Bonnie and Floyd followed the classic
track with all but Edouard striking the U. S. along the North Carolina
coastline (although only Fran was of Category 3 intensity at landfall).
In their classic 1960 book, _Atlantic Hurricanes_, Dunn and Miller
refer to a 1955 study by Dr. H. C. Willett entitled "A Study of Tropical
Hurricanes Along the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts of the United States."
The discussion was about possible climatic cycles which had led to the
increase in strong hurricanes affecting the Middle Atlantic and New
England areas since the mid-1930s. Dunn and Miller state that Dr.
Willett was a leading student of long-range weather trends, and to
quote a portion of their discussion: "Dr. Willett forecasts an end to
the present warm dry cycle within the immediate future and that within
ten years (by 1965), hurricanes will return to their traditional track
in the Caribbean, the Gulf of Mexico, and the Atlantic....And along with
this change in cycle would be associated a small but significant decrease
in frequency." The cases cited above seem to bear out this forecast:
there was a decrease in tropical cyclone frequency, especially in the
1970s and 1980s, even with better detection tools, and there was a
noticeable increase in hurricane tracks across the central Caribbean
with storms affecting Central America, Mexico, and the central and
western U. S. Gulf of Mexico coastline in greater numbers than during
the 1940s and 1950s.
And just as the pattern which prevailed from the latter 1960s until
1994 had been forecast well in advance, so also the pattern which
abruptly began in 1995 was also forecast several years in advance.
Around 1990, Dr. William Gray of Colorado State University
and his seasonal forecasting team began predicting a return to the sort
of conditions which had been prevalent during the 1940s, 1950s and early
1960s. Nine Atlantic IH tracks over five seasons (1995-1999), as
compared with only 10 during the previous 29 seasons, certainly announce
that a change in tropical Atlantic atmospheric conditions has occurred.
And, as one might expect, there has been a decided drop-off in Caribbean
IH tracks, the only ones since the two great Caribbean hurricanes of
1988 being Georges and Iris, and of these, Georges barely qualified as
it passed only a very short distance south of Hispaniola's eastern tip.
This inverse relationship between East Coast and Gulf Coast IH land-
falls has happened before. Between 1906 and 1926 the U. S. East Coast
enjoyed a complete hiatus in IH landalls. But between 1909 and 1919,
nine major hurricanes struck the central and western U. S. Gulf Coast,
and another (in 1909) made landfall in extreme northeastern Mexico just
south of the Rio Grande. And of these 10 storms, all but two were of
Atlantic tropical wave origin, passing through the central Caribbean
and ultimately into the Gulf of Mexico.
The very quiet period in the Gulf of Mexico during the late 1940s and
1950s was probably in part just good fortune. Intense hurricanes which
strike the central and western U. S. Gulf coastline as well as the upper
Mexican coast may have traveled through the central Caribbean, but also
storms originating in the Gulf and in the western Caribbean (such as
Opal of 1995) may strike those areas. Also the Gulf is subject to IH
landfalls from storms moving through the Florida Straits or over the
extreme southern portion of the Peninsula, e.g., Betsy and Andrew.
Because of this, the frequency of IH landfalls along the Gulf Coast over
several such multi-decadal cycles would not be expected to show as much
variation as in certain other areas.
However, throughout the entire 20th century, all of the IHs striking
the U. S. East Coast--with three exceptions--formed in the Atlantic and
moved westward north of the island of Hispaniola. Therefore, when there
is a major decline in the number of such storms for 2 or 3 decades, it
follows that the East Coast will likely see very few landfalling IHs
during that time. But since the number of central Caribbean tracks
appear to increase during such periods, the U. S. Gulf Coast as well as
Mexico and Central America can expect to see a modest upswing in the
number of intense landfalling hurricanes. (Note: The three exceptions
referred to above are King of 1950, and Carol and Hazel of 1954.)
MINOR CORRECTION TO MAY FEATURE
-------------------------------
In the May Feature of the Month I incorrectly stated that Michael V.
Padua's Typhoon 2000 website had originated in 1998 as Typhoon '98.
Michael informed me that actually he had launched it on 2 November 1997
as Typhoon '97.
*************************************************************************
ACTIVITY BY BASINS
ATLANTIC (ATL) - North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico
Activity for June: No tropical cyclones
Atlantic Tropical Activity for June
-----------------------------------
No tropical storms or depressions formed in the Atlantic during June,
2002. Over the period 1950-2001, 27 tropical storms have formed during
June (0.52 per year) with 10 reaching hurricane intensity (0.19 per
year). During the past ten seasons there have been five tropical storms
named in June--exactly the long-term average--but with only one reaching
hurricane intensity. The last June hurricane in the Atlantic was Hurri-
cane Allison in 1995, which made landfall in the Florida Panhandle near
St. Marks as a strong tropical storm. Tropical Storm Allison in 2001
brought incredibly heavy rains to the Houston area, resulting in
devastating floods with over 20 fatalities. While no tropical cyclones
formed during June, disturbed weather prevailed over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea, the Gulf of Mexico, the Florida Peninsula and the Bahamas
for quite a few days during the month. All this was due to tropical
waves and surface troughs, in some cases interacting with upper-level
LOWs.
*************************************************************************
NORTHEAST PACIFIC (NEP) - North Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 180
Activity for June: 1 tropical depression
1 tropical storm
Sources of Information
----------------------
Most of the information presented below was obtained from the
various tropical cyclone products issued by the Tropical Prediction
Center/National Hurricane Center (TPC/NHC) in Miami, Florida (or the
Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) in Honolulu, Hawaii, for
locations west of longitude 140W): discussions, public advisories,
forecast/advisories, tropical weather outlooks, special tropical
disturbance statements, etc. Some additional information may have
been gleaned from the monthly summaries prepared by the hurricane
specialists and available on TPC/NHC's website. All references to
sustained winds imply a 1-minute averaging period unless otherwise
noted.
Northeast Pacific Tropical Activity for June
--------------------------------------------
June tropical activity was below normal in the Eastern North Pacific.
Over the period 1971-2001, June has produced an average of two tropical
storms per year with one reaching hurricane intensity. Only one fairly
short-lived tropical storm formed during June, 2002. There was also
a tropical depression (TD-03E) which was active during the final days
of the month. The depression formed on 27 June about 950 nm southwest
of Cabo San Lucas on the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.
The system moved generally west-northwestward for a couple of days and
remained poorly-organized, although it did produce some impressive
bursts of deep convection. By 0600 UTC on the 29th the depression had
weakened into a remnant LOW about 1450 nm west-southwest of Cabo San
Lucas, or about 1350 nm east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii.
The summary below on Tropical Storm Boris was written by John Wallace
of San Antonio, Texas.
TROPICAL STORM BORIS
(TC-02E)
8 - 11 June
----------------------------------------
A. Storm Origins
----------------
The disturbance that became Boris was evident in satellite imagery
as early as 3 June. The disturbance remained disorganized for several
days, probably due to land interaction as it straddled the southern
coast of Mexico. A very broad cyclonic circulation had appeared by
6 June; the following day it finally tracked into the ocean and the
system developed accordingly. The first advisory on Tropical Depression
Two-E was issued at 1715 UTC on 8 June when it was located 160 nm west of
Acapulco, Mexico. The depression tracked slowly west-northwestward,
south of a weak ridge. Inhibited by shear at first, it nevertheless
became organized enough to warrant its upgrade to Tropical Storm Boris
at 0300 UTC on 9 June, located 140 nm south of Manzanillo, Mexico.
B. Track and Intensity History
------------------------------
The cyclone's proximity to land justified the issuance of a tropical
storm watch for the coast, extending from Punta San Telmo to Cabo
Corrientes, at 2100 UTC on the 8th. It's bark proved worse than its
bite, however, as Boris stalled on the 9th, sandwiched between ridges to
its north and south. Indeed, it remained stalled or quasi-stationary for
the rest of its existence while stiff easterly shear gnawed away at its
convection. Boris still managed to reach a peak MSW of 50 kts at 1500
UTC on 9 June, with an estimated CP of 997 mb, while located some 135 nm
south of Manzanillo. According to the advisory issued at this time, a
QuikScat pass had revealed low-level winds of 50 kts--minus a closed
circulation.
Boris' intensity dropped immediately after its peak as strong easterly
shear took its toll. Ship ELYL8 reported a 39-kt MSW and a MSLP reading
of 1003.8 mb 70 nm north of the center around 0000 UTC on the 10th; the
storm had more life than its deteriorating satellite signature suggested.
Even so, Boris weakened as it spun aimlessly offshore. Though SSTs were
warm, persistent shear prevented regeneration. By 1500 UTC on the 10th,
it was little more than a low-level vortex, devoid of deep convection.
Boris was downgraded to a depression and all watches for the coast were
dropped. After a few intermittent bursts of convection, the final
advisory on Tropical Depression Boris was issued at 2100 UTC on 11 June,
placing the center about 185 nm west of Acapulco. The remnant vortex
had dissipated by the 13th.
C. Damage and Casualties
------------------------
Both the Mexican National Meteorological Service and the NHC state
that wind and rain affected the Mexican coast, but no casualties are
known to have resulted. According to the NHC, there was some relatively
minor coastal damage to homes due to heavy rains.
*************************************************************************
NORTHWEST PACIFIC (NWP) - North Pacific Ocean West of Longitude 180
Activity for June: 2 tropical storms **
1 typhoon
** - both storms formed on 29 June and continued well into July and will
be covered in the July summary
Sources of Information
----------------------
Most of the information presented below is based upon tropical
cyclone warnings and significant tropical weather outlooks issued
by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center of the U. S. Air Force and
Navy (JTWC), located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii. In the companion
tropical cyclone tracks file, I normally annotate track coordinates
from some of the various Asian warning centers when their center
positions differ from JTWC's by usually 40-50 nm or more. All
references to sustained winds imply a 1-minute averaging period
unless otherwise noted.
Michael V. Padua of Naga City in the Philippines, owner of the
Typhoon 2000 website, normally sends me cyclone tracks based upon
warnings issued by the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA) and the
Philippines' Atmospheric, Geophysical & Astronomical Services
Administration (PAGASA). Also, Huang Chunliang of Fuzhou City, China,
sends me each month tracks obtained from warnings issued by the
National Meteorological Center of China (NMCC), the Central Weather
Bureau of Taiwan (CWBT) and the Hong Kong Observatory (HKO). A very
special thanks to Michael and Chunliang for the assistance they so
reliably provide.
In the title line for each storm I have referenced all the cyclone
names/numbers I have available: JTWC's depression number, the
JMA-assigned name (if any), JMA's tropical storm numeric designator,
and PAGASA's name for systems forming in or passing through their
area of warning responsibility.
Northwest Pacific Tropical Activity for June
--------------------------------------------
Three tropical cyclones formed in Northwest Pacific waters during the
month of June. One of these, Noguri, became a small typhoon of moderate
intensity early in the month, tracking out of the South China Sea and
turning northward east of Taiwan, eventually passing west of Okinawa and
weakening as it neared Japan. The month was quiet across the western
Pacific until the final days of the month. Two systems formed simul-
taneously, one in the Philippine Sea and one far to the east in the
vicinity of Pohnpei. Both were upgraded to tropical storm status by
JMA at the same time with the westernmost depression being named
Rammasun and the easternmost one Chataan. Both cyclones subsequently
reached typhoon intensity with Rammasun moving northward, passing east
of Taiwan and eastern mainland China and eventually making landfall in
South Korea as a weakening tropical storm. Chataan, after dawdling for
several days in the vicinity of Chuuk, where it was responsible for
extremely heavy rainfall, began moving west-northwestward as it increased
to typhoon intensity and moved directly across the island of Guam as a
Category 2 typhoon (on the Saffir/Simpson scale). Chataan later briefly
became a super typhoon, then weakened and flirted with the Japanese
coastline as it recurved northeastward. Since both of these tropical
cyclones reached maturity in July and lasted well into the month, they
will be covered in the July summary.
TYPHOON NOGURI
(TC-07W / STS 0204 / ESPADA)
6 - 11 June
------------------------------------------------
Noguri: contributed by South Korea, is the raccoon dog--a small grayish-
brown animal with black markings on its face and on its thick,
furry tail
A. Storm Origins
----------------
The only Northwest Pacific tropical cyclone to form during the month
of June had its beginnings in a monsoon trough which extended eastward
from the coast of Vietnam across the South China Sea. A broad LLCC had
formed by early on 4 June--a SSM/I pass at 04/0205 UTC and animated
satellite imagery revealed that significant development had occurred
during the past six hours with a developing banding feature wrapping
into the LLCC from the southwest. Water vapor imagery revealed an upper-
level trough extending over the coast of China while a mid-level analysis
indicated air mass continuity over the suspect area through 500 mb. JTWC
assessed the potential for development to be fair.
A TCFA was issued at 0000 UTC on 5 June. Animated satellite imagery
indicated a developing LLCC with associated deepening convection south-
east of Hainan Dao. CIMSS analysis products indicated that the LLCC was
situated beneath an upper-level ridge with favorable outflow aloft and
weak to moderate vertical shear. At 0600 UTC the center was located
roughly 150 nm south-southwest of Hong Kong and was quasi-stationary
with most of the deep convection confined to the eastern semicircle.
JTWC issued the first warning on Tropical Depression 07W at 0000 UTC
on 6 June. (HKO also classified the system as a depression at this
time.) The initial warning intensity was estimated at 30 kts, based
on CI estimates of 25 and 35 kts, and the center was located roughly
150 nm south-southeast of Hong Kong. TD-07W was located in a region
of weak to moderate vertical shear and consisted of a broad LLCC with
deep convection limited primarily to the southeastern quadrant. The
system moved slowly eastward toward the Luzon Strait during the next
24 hours with little change in intensity or organization. At 07/0000
UTC the depression's center was located approximately 185 nm west-
southwest of southern Taiwan, moving eastward at 9 kts. PAGASA began
issuing warnings on the system as it entered their AOR, naming it
Espada (a Spanish noun meaning "sword"). As the depression continued
eastward its organization began to improve and PAGASA upgraded it to
Tropical Storm Espada at 07/0600 UTC. Espada's center passed about
65 nm south of Taiwan around 1200 UTC, and at 1800 UTC JTWC also upgraded
the system to tropical storm status, based on CI estimates and ship
reports of 35-kt winds. Convection was developing over the LLCC, and
water vapor imagery revealed that a longwave trough moving over the East
China Sea had helped in the establishment of a poleward outflow channel.
B. Track and Intensity History
------------------------------
JTWC increased the MSW to 45 kts at 0000 UTC on 8 June--at the same
time HKO upgraded Espada/07W to tropical storm status. Six hours later
NMCC and JMA both classified the system as a tropical storm with JMA
assigning the name Noguri. Deep convection near the LLCC temporarily
weakened early on 8 June but was redeveloping by 1200 UTC. A 08/0953
UTC TRMM 37 GHz image indicated a well-defined vortex center on the
western edge of the new deep convection. Noguri's earlier eastward
and east-northeastward motion had been due to the steering influence
of a low to mid-level ridge southeast of the cyclone. The ridge was
forecast to build east of the storm, inducing it to turn more toward
the northeast. This is exactly what happened--at 1800 UTC Noguri's
center was located approximately 320 nm southwest of Okinawa, moving
northeastward at 7 kts. JTWC upped the MSW to 55 kts at 1800 UTC, even
though convection had decreased somewhat in the western semicircle as a
shortwave trough passed north of the system. NMCC and PAGASA were
reporting maximum 10-min mean winds of 50 kts while JMA and HKO were
estimating the intensity at 40 kts.
A surprise was in store on 9 June. Multi-spectral satellite imagery
indicated the development of a cloud-filled eye, and CI estimates jumped
to 65 and even up to 90 kts. At 09/0000 UTC JTWC upgraded Noguri to an
85-kt typhoon, located about 260 nm southwest of Naha, Okinawa. A SSM/I
image at 08/2205 UTC had depicted a small area of deep convection with
a well-defined eye and a broad region of dry air west of the system.
Even though some CI estimates remained at 90 kts through 1800 UTC, JTWC
did not increase the MSW above 85 kts. Noguri was a compact typhoon
with gales extending outward around 70-75 nm from the center. NMCC
upgraded Noguri to a typhoon at 0600 UTC with the 10-min avg MSW esti-
mated at 70 kts. NMCC classified the storm as a typhoon for 18 hours
while PAGASA upgraded it to minimal typhoon status for only one warning
cycle. The peak intensity estimated by JMA, Hong Kong, and Taiwan was
60 kts (10-min avg).
The small typhoon turned northward and by 1800 UTC was located about
160 nm southwest of Okinawa. TRMM and SSM/I passes during the day
revealed a partial eyewall with most convection located in the eastern
semicircle. A SSM/I pass at 09/1134 UTC depicted a small eye with very
little deep convection extending out from the eyewall. Satellite imagery
indicated that the system was beginning to experience shear from the
west as a small upper-level ridge built to the west of the cyclone.
At 0000 UTC on the 10th Noguri was approximately 90 nm southwest of Naha
and moving north-northeastward. The storm was still experiencing shear
and the intensity was lowered to 75 kts. The Okinawa radar loop indi-
cated that the center tracked just east of the island of Miyako around
09/1700 UTC. A SSM/I pass at 09/2151 UTC indicated that the remaining
deep convection was localized in the southeastern quadrant.
JTWC downgraded Noguri to a 55-kt tropical storm at 10/1200 UTC when
the storm was centered about 270 nm south-southwest of Sasebo, Japan.
The cyclone's northeastward motion had accelerated to 16 kts. Deep
convection was rapidly weakening and system was beginning to transition
into an extratropical cyclone. JTWC downgraded Noguri to a 30-kt
tropical depression at 1800 UTC, but JMA was reporting the 10-min avg
MSW at 45 kts. The final JTWC warning on Noguri was issued at 11/0000
UTC with the system located about 380 nm west-southwest of Tokyo, racing
northeastward at 33 kts. JMA had dropped the winds to 35 kts, and the
final bulletin from that agency was issued at 0600 UTC, placing the
center inland near Kyoto. The system either dissipated over Honshu, or
else was absorbed into an extratropical LOW moving eastward over the
Sea of Japan.
C. Comparisons Between JTWC and Other Centers
---------------------------------------------
NMCC's peak 10-min avg MSW of 70 kts compares rather well with JTWC's
peak 1-min avg MSW of 85 kts. As noted above, PAGASA was the only other
warning agency to upgrade Noguri to typhoon status, and that only for
a six-hour period. All the other warning centers (JMA, HKO and CWBT)
estimated the peak 10-min avg sustained wind at 60 kts.
D. Meteorological Observations
------------------------------
Just as I was about ready to send out the June summary, I received
some rainfall totals recorded on Taiwan during several tropical cyclones.
These were sent to me by Huang Chunliang--a special thanks to Chunliang
for passing them along. The data were compiled by Professor Chun-Chieh
Wu of National Taiwan University and his student, Wei-Peng Huang. A
special thanks also to these gentlemen for sending the information to
Chunliang. The amounts are tabulated for various periods by station
name and county.
For Typhoon Noguri (rainfall amounts in mm):
--------------------------------------------
1. Storm totals, from 05/1600 UTC through 06/1900 UTC:
LIUFENLIAO, Nantu County 134
JEASHIAN, Kaohsiung County 90
JIYUEHTAN, Nantu County 75
YU CHIH, Nantu County 71
NIU-TON, Ilan County 67
SHANGDER, Pingtung County 66
TSAOLING, Chiayi County 76
O MEI, Hsinchu County 67
2. Storm totals, from 06/1600 UTC through 07/1900 UTC:
MU-TAN, Pingtung County 320
MA TSUMIAO, Tainan County 107
MA TOU SAN, Chiayi County 77
E. Damage and Casualties
------------------------
No reports of damage or casualties resulting from Typhoon Noguri have
been received by the author.
ADDENDUM TO MAY SUMMARY
-----------------------
The Taiwan rainfall tables sent by Huang Chunliang also included
some amounts recorded during the passage of Tropical Depression Dagul
(06W) in late May. I have included these in the table below.
For Tropical Depression Dagul, May, 2002 (rainfall amounts in mm):
------------------------------------------------------------------
1. Storm totals, from 28/1600 UTC through 30/0700 UTC:
MU-TAN, Pingtung County 191
SHOU CHIA, Pingtung County 137
SAUKUANSAN, Kaohsiung County 182
*************************************************************************
NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (NIO) - Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea
Activity for June: No tropical cyclones
North Indian Ocean Tropical Activity for June
---------------------------------------------
No tropical cyclones developed in the Bay of Bengal or the Arabian
Sea during June. A tropical disturbance formed on the 1st near the
west coast of India, south of Bombay. The system exhibited improved
organization on the 2nd and JTWC upgraded the development potential to
fair, estimating the maximum winds in the 20-25 kt range. However, by
the next day the system had moved inland over western India and weakened.
There were some episodes of disturbed weather in both the Arabian Sea
and Bay of Bengal later in the month but none of these disturbances
became very well-organized.
*************************************************************************
SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN (SWI) - South Indian Ocean West of Longitude 90E
Activity for June: 1 tropical disturbance
Southwest Indian Ocean Tropical Activity for June
-------------------------------------------------
A tropical disturbance developed in the Southwest Indian Ocean during
June which elicited the issuance of several bulletins from the La Reunion
TCWC. The system was located approximately 525 nm east-southeast of
Diego Garcia at 11/0600 UTC and subsequently moved slowly southward over
the next few days, accelerating on the 14th. By the time the final
bulletin was issued at 0600 UTC on the 15th, the system was located
about 900 nm southeast of Diego Garcia. JTWC did not issue any warnings
on this system, but did assign a fair potential for development from
the 10th through the 12th, downgrading it to poor on the 13th. On
13 June MFR estimated the MSW near the center at 25 kts, reaching 30 kts
up to 250 nm from the center in the southern semicircle.
*************************************************************************
NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA/SOUTHEAST INDIAN OCEAN (AUW) - From 90E to 135E
Activity for June: No tropical cyclones
*************************************************************************
NORTHEAST AUSTRALIA/CORAL SEA (AUE) - From 135E to 160E
Activity for June: No tropical cyclones
Northeast Australia/Coral Sea
Tropical Activity for June
-----------------------------
No tropical cyclones developed in waters around northeastern Australia
during June, but I did receive a report from Jeff Callaghan concerning a
hybrid low-pressure system which brought gales, heavy rains and heavy
seas to portions of Australia. I have included Jeff's write-up below
verbatim (with some minor editing). A special thanks to Jeff for sending
the report to me.
A LOW in the middle atmosphere developed overland in southeast Queens-
land by 2 June 2002. At the surface a large HIGH moved across southeast
Australia while a trough developed to the east of the upper LOW, gener-
ating gale-force winds along the south coast of Queensland. The trough
developed east of Bowen between Marion Reef and Frederick Reef, and
because of the large HIGH over southeast Australia, it had the same
effect as a deep East Coast LOW. The gales extended northwards up to
the Capricorn Coast by 4 June 2002. The low-level onshore flow and the
upper LOW combined to produce areas of very heavy rain.
On Tuesday, 4 June 2002, torrential rain and flash flooding occurred
in the Yeppoon area with general falls between 80 mm and 100 mm in the
24 hours to 2300 UTC, 3 June 2002. Very heavy rain (with thunder) began
falling at about 2230 UTC, 3 June 2002, and continued until 0030 UTC,
4 June 2002. Reports of amounts in that two-hour period ranged from
120 mm to 320 mm. The heaviest rainfall areas seemed to be around Kinka
Beach (halfway between Yeppoon and Emu Park), Emu Park itself, and at
Zilzie just south of Emu Park. Some of the reports received were Kinka
Beach--359 mm in total, with 70 mm of it before 2100 UTC. Another Kinka
Beach resident reported a 322 mm total--102 mm before 2300 UTC and 220 mm
after 2300 UTC--while a report from a resident 1 km inland from Kinka
Beach indicated 305 mm for a total and 75 mm before 2300 UTC. At
Barlows Hill, just north of Yeppoon, 150 mm was recorded in 90 minutes,
and at Kemp Beach 330 mm was recorded in total with 240 mm after 2300
UTC. Emu Park reported 290 mm in the 7 hours to 0500 UTC, 4 June 2002.
Zilzie recorded a total of 380 mm with 320 mm after 2100 UTC. The Keppel
Sands Coastguard registered 245 mm up to 0200 UTC. There was one report
of 446 mm at Kinka Beach for the whole event. A number of houses were
inundated by stormwater at Emu Park and motor vehicles were abandoned.
Gales generated large seas, and near Lady Musgrave Island, five
yachtsmen were rescued off two yachts: Banshee and Moonfleet. Both
yachts were destroyed by the seas. Rundle Island automatic weather
station (AWS) reported gales from 1700 UTC, 3 June 2002, until 0900 UTC,
4 June 2002. The strongest 10-minute average wind recorded at the AWS
was 45 knots. The strongest 10-minute average wind recorded at Double
Island Point AWS was 39 knots, at Lady Elliot Island AWS 35 knots, at
Frederick Reef 38 knots, at Gannet Cay AWS 41 knots, and at Cape Moreton
AWS 45 knots.
*************************************************************************
SOUTH PACIFIC (SPA) - South Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 160E
Activity for June: No tropical cyclones
*************************************************************************
EXTRA FEATURE
In order to shorten the amount of typing in preparing the narrative
material, I have been in the habit of freely using abbreviations and
acronyms. I have tried to define most of these with the first usage
in a given summary, but I may have missed one now and then. Most of
these are probably understood by a majority of readers but perhaps a
few aren't clear to some. To remedy this I developed a Glossary of
Abbreviations and Acronyms which I first included in the July, 1998
summary. I don't normally include the Glossary in most months in
order to help keep them from being too long. If anyone would like to
receive a copy of the Glossary, please e-mail me and I'll be happy
to send them a copy.
*************************************************************************
AUTHOR'S NOTE: This summary should be considered a very preliminary
overview of the tropical cyclones that occur in each month. The cyclone
tracks (provided separately) will generally be based upon operational
warnings issued by the various tropical cyclone warning centers. The
information contained therein may differ somewhat from the tracking and
intensity information obtained from a "best-track" file which is based
on a detailed post-seasonal analysis of all available data. Information
on where to find official "best-track" files from the various warning
centers will be passed along from time to time.
The track files are not being sent via e-mail. They can be retrieved
in the following manner:
(a) FTP to: hrd-type42.nhc.noaa.gov [140.90.176.206]
(b) Login as: anonymous
(c) For a password use your e-mail address
(d) Go to "data" subdirectory (Type: cd data)
(e) Set file type to ASCII (Type: ascii)
(f) Transfer file (Type: get remote_file_name local_file_name )
(The files will be named with an obvious nomenclature--using
June as an example: jun02.tracks)
(g) To exit FTP, type: quit
Both the summaries and the track files are standard text files
created in DOS editor. Download to disk and use a viewer such as
Notepad or DOS editor to view the files.
The first summary in this series covered the month of October,
1997. If anyone wishes to retrieve any of the previous summaries,
they may be downloaded from the aforementioned FTP site at HRD. The
summary files are catalogued with the nomenclature: jun02.sum, for
example.
Back issues can also be obtained from the following websites
(courtesy of Michael Bath, Michael V. Padua and Michael Pitt):
http://australiasevereweather.com/cyclones/>
http://www.typhoon2000.ph> OR http://66.40.4.61>
http://mpitthurricane.com>
Another website where much information about tropical cyclones may
be found is the website for the UK Meteorological Office. Their site
contains a lot of statistical information about tropical cyclones
globally on a monthly basis. The URL is:
http://www.met-office.gov.uk/sec2/sec2cyclone/sec2cyclone.html>
TROPICAL CYCLONE REPORTS AVAILABLE
JTWC now has available on its website the complete Annual Tropical
Cyclone Report (ATCR) for 2001 (2000-2001 season for the Southern
Hemisphere). ATCRs for earlier years are available also.
The URL is: http://199.10.200.33/jtwc.html>
Also, TPC/NHC has available on its webpage nice "technicolor"
tracking charts for the 2001 Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific
tropical cyclones; also, preliminary storm reports for all the 2001
Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific cyclones are now available, as
well as track charts and reports on storms from earlier years.
The URL is: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov>
A special thanks to Michael Bath of Wollongbar, New South Wales,
Australia, for assisting me with proofreading the summaries.
PREPARED BY
Gary Padgett
E-mail: [email protected]
Phone: 334-222-5327
AND
John Wallace
E-mail: [email protected]
*************************************************************************
*************************************************************************
|
Document: summ0206.htm
Updated: 27th December 2006 |
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