Tropical Cyclones [Index]

Tropical Cyclone EDDY [Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean]

WTXS21 PGTW 20020123 14:00z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 231351Z JAN 02//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
125 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.5S7 89.8E5 TO 14.8S3 86.6E0
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 231330Z2 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 11.9S1 89.2E9. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.2S4 90.4E3 IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 11.9S1 89.2E9, ABOUT 450 NM WEST OF COCOS ISLAND, IN
THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES INCREASING ORGANIZATION OF A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES CONVECTION IS
CURRENTLY IN A REGION OF WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
MOVING INTO AN AREA FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS NOW GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
241400Z1.//

=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20020124 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z2 --- NEAR 12.1S4 88.5E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.1S4 88.5E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z5 --- 12.9S2 88.0E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z3 --- 14.2S7 87.8E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z6 --- 15.6S2 87.7E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z4 --- 16.7S4 87.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
240900Z5 POSITION NEAR 12.3S6 88.4E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE NEAR EQUATORIAL TROUGH
APPROXIMATELY 5 NM WEST OF COCOS ISLAND. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S HAS
TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 240530Z4 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 30 KNOTS. VISIBLE ANIMATION DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING
OVER THE VORTEX CENTER AND A WEAK BANDING FEATURE WRAPPING IN FROM
THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING OFF OF THE
NORTHWEST COAST OF AUSTRALIA SHOULD INFLUENCE THE SYSTEMS TRACK
THROUGH THE PERIOD. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON THE UKMET SPECTRAL, THE
AVIATION RUN OF THE MRF, AND THE MEDIUM BETA ADVECTION MODEL BASED
OFF OF THE 240000Z6 NOGAPS RUN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
240600Z2 IS 12 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
NAVPACMETOCCEN 231351Z JAN 02 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTXS22 PGTW 231400). NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z9 AND 250900Z6. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DINA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20020124 21:00z    
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (EDDY) WARNING NR 002    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   241800Z5 --- NEAR 13.3S7 88.2E8
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.3S7 88.2E8
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z3 --- 14.2S7 88.0E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   251800Z6 --- 15.3S9 87.7E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT    
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT    
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   260600Z4 --- 16.5S2 87.2E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT    
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT    
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   261800Z7 --- 17.4S2 86.6E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT    
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT    
    ---
REMARKS:
242100Z9 POSITION NEAR 13.5S9 88.2E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (EDDY), APPROXIMATELY 500 NM WEST OF THE COCOS 
ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. 
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 241730Z7 INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE 
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. INFRARED ANIMATION DEPICTS 
CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE VORTEX CENTER AND IMPROVED 
ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING 
OFF OF THE NORTHWEST COAST OF AUSTRALIA SHOULD INFLUENCE THE SYSTEMS 
TRACK THROUGH THE PERIOD. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON THE UKMET 
SPECTRAL, THE AVIATION RUN OF THE MRF, AND NOGAPS MODELS. MAXIMUM 
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z5 IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 
250900Z6 AND 252100Z0. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DINA) WARNING 
(WTXS31 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20020125 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (EDDY) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
250600Z3 --- NEAR 14.9S4 88.6E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S4 88.6E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z6 --- 16.6S3 88.4E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z4 --- 18.3S2 87.9E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z7 --- 19.5S5 86.9E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z5 --- 20.4S6 85.8E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
250900Z6 POSITION NEAR 15.3S9   88.6E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (EDDY), LOCATED OVER THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN,
HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 250530Z5 VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS. VISIBLE ANIMATION AND MICROWAVE
IMAGERY CONTINUE TO DEPICT AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS NEW BURSTS OF
DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOP OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING OFF OF THE NORTHWEST COAST OF AUSTRALIA
SHOULD INFLUENCE THE SYSTEMS TRACK THROUGH THE PERIOD. OUR FORECAST
IS BASED ON THE UKMET SPECTRAL, THE AVIATION RUN OF THE MRF, AND
NOGAPS MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z3 IS 18
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 252100Z0 AND 260900Z7. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE  10S (DINA) (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR FINAL WARNING.//

=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20020125 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (EDDY) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
251800Z6 --- NEAR 16.3S0 88.6E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S0 88.6E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z4 --- 18.0S9 88.2E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z7 --- 19.5S5 87.0E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z5 --- 20.3S5 85.4E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z8 --- 21.1S4 83.5E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
252100Z0 POSITION NEAR 16.7S4 88.5E1
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (EDDY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 545 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 251730Z8
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 251235Z8 TRMM PASS SHOWS THE CONVECTIVE BAND
WRAPPING COMPLETELY AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 11S
SHOULD CONTINUE TRACKING TO THE SOUTH INITIALLY, AND THEN TURN WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARDS AS A LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM. TC 11S SHOULD WEAKEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASES DUE TO A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSIST OF THE
UK MET GLOBAL, NOGAPS, GFDN, TCLPS, TLAPS, AND AVIATION MODELS. OUR
FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE DYNAMIC AIDS AND PERSISTENCE.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z6 IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 260900Z7 AND 262100Z1.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20020126 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (EDDY) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
260600Z4 --- NEAR 18.2S1 89.7E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S1 89.7E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z7 --- 20.2S4 89.4E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z5 --- 22.0S4 89.0E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z8 --- 24.0S6 88.3E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z6 --- 25.8S5 87.4E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
260900Z7 POSITION NEAR 18.7S6 89.6E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (EDDY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 550 NM SOUTHWEST
OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 260530Z6
VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS. ANIMATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BANDING EYE FEATURE. TC 11S WILL CONTINUE
TRACK IN A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION, AND THEN TURN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS AS
A LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. TC 11S WILL
MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGH THE 24-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD, UNTIL
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INHIBITS DEVELOPMENT TOWARDS THE END
OF THE PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS OF THE UK MET GLOBAL
(EGRR), NOGAPS, GFDN, AND AVIATION MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT. NGPS
AND AVN PULL THE TRACK QUICKLY TO THE WEST. EGRR AND
GFDN TRACK THE SYSTEM SOUTHWESTERLY. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A
SELECTIVE BLEND OF EGRR, GFDN, AND THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z4 IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 262100Z1 AND 270900Z8.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20020126 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (EDDY) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
261800Z7 --- NEAR 20.0S2 89.7E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0S2 89.7E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z5 --- 21.5S8 89.4E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z8 --- 22.8S2 87.5E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z6 --- 23.6S1 85.0E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z9 --- 24.4S0 82.1E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
262100Z1 POSITION NEAR 20.4S6 89.6E3
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (EDDY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 630 NM SOUTHWEST
OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 6 KNOTS DURING THE
PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 261730Z9 INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 TO 77 KNOTS. ANIMATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PERSISTENT BANDING FEATURE. A 261240Z5
SSMI PASS INDICATES CONVECTION IS BECOMING RESTRICTED TO THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. TC 11S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK IN
A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, THEN BEGIN TO TURN
SOUTHWESTWARD AS A LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM. TC 11S WILL MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGH THE 24-HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD WITH INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SLIGHTLY COOLER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE END
OF THE FORECAST. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS OF THE UK MET GLOBAL
(EGRR), NOGAPS, GFDN, AND AVIATION (AVN) MODELS ARE CLUSTERED IN TWO
GROUPS IN REGARD TO FORECAST TRACK. NGPS/AVN CONTINUE TO PULL THE
SYSTEM IMMEDIATELY WESTWARD WHILE EGRR/GFDN ARE INITIALLY INDICATING
A SOUTHERLY TRACK WITH A GRADUAL WESTWARD TURN BEYOND THE 24 HOUR
PERIOD. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF
EGRR/GFDN THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS LEANING TOWARD A CONSENSUS OF
ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261800Z7 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
270900Z8 AND 272100Z2.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20020127 09:00z
   1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (EDDY) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
270600Z5 --- NEAR 21.6S9 88.7E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.6S9 88.7E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z8 --- 23.1S6 87.0E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z6 --- 23.7S2 84.7E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z9 --- 24.3S9 82.5E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z7 --- 25.1S8 80.4E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
270900Z8 POSITION NEAR 22.0S4 88.3E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (EDDY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 735 NM SOUTHWEST
OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 8 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 270530Z7
VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 TO 65 KNOTS.
ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PERSISTENT BANDING FEATURE. TC
11S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK IN A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION OVER
THE NEXT 12 HOURS, THEN BEGIN TO TURN GRADUALLY MORE WESTWARD AS THE
LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. TC 11S WILL
SLOWLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT
APPROACHES INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SLIGHTLY COOLER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS OF THE UK MET
GLOBAL (EGRR), NOGAPS, GFDN, AND AVIATION (AVN) MODELS ARE CLUSTERED
IN TWO GROUPS IN REGARD TO FORECAST TRACK. NGPS/AVN CONTINUE TO PULL
THE SYSTEM IMMEDIATELY WESTWARD WHILE EGRR/GFDN ARE INITIALLY
INDICATING A SOUTHERLY TRACK WITH A GRADUAL WESTWARD TURN BEYOND THE
24 HOUR PERIOD. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF
EGRR/GFDN THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS LEANING TOWARD A CONSENSUS OF
ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z5 IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 272100Z2 AND 280900Z9.
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20020127 21:00z    
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (EDDY) WARNING NR 008    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   271800Z8 --- NEAR 22.1S5 86.3E7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT    
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT    
   REPEAT POSIT: 22.1S5 86.3E7
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   280600Z6 --- 23.0S5 83.2E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   281800Z9 --- 24.3S9 80.0E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 17 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   290600Z7 --- 27.1S0 77.8E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 18 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   291800Z0 --- 30.6S9 77.9E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
272100Z2 POSITION NEAR 22.3S7 85.5E8
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (EDDY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 850 NM SOUTHWEST 
OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS DURING THE 
PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 271730Z0 INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT 
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS A SHEARED SYSTEM WITH REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION 
FOUND 120 NM EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). RECENT 
TRMM AND SSMI PASSES OVER TC 11S FURTHER SUPPORT A STRONGLY SHEARED 
SYSTEM. TC 11S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE 
STEERING INFLUENCE OF A LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGE SOUTH OF THE 
SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN TURN SOUTH INTO 
A BREAK IN THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE BEYOND 24 HOURS. TC 11S WILL CONTINUE 
TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT REMAINS IN A 
STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND MOVES INTO COOLER SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF THE 
UK MET GLOBAL (EGRR), NOGAPS, GFDN, AND AVIATION (AVN) MODELS ARE IN 
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST TRACK. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON 
PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF ALL THE DYNAMIC MODELS BY THE END OF THE 
FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z8 IS 18 
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280900Z9 AND 282100Z3.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20020128 09:00z
   1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (EDDY) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z6 --- NEAR 22.6S0 84.6E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 22.6S0 84.6E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z9 --- 23.3S8 83.0E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z7 --- 23.9S4 81.4E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
280900Z9 POSITION NEAR 22.8S2   84.2E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (EDDY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 940 NM SOUTHWEST
OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 280530Z8
VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS. ANIMATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SHEARED SYSTEM WITH DISSIPATING
CONVECTION. RECENT TRMM AND SSMI PASSES OVER TC 11S FURTHER SUPPORT
A STRONGLY SHEARED SYSTEM. TC 11S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL
RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. TC 11S WILL
CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT REMAINS
IN A STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND MOVES INTO COOLER
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF
THE UK MET GLOBAL (EGRR), NOGAPS, GFDN, AND AVIATION (AVN) MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST TRACK. OUR FORECAST IS BASED
ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF ALL THE DYNAMIC MODELS BY THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z6 IS
10 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//