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Tropical Cyclone DINA
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Tropical Cyclone DINA [Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean] |
WTXS21 PGTW 20020117 06:30z
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
2. AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
3. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
090 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.1S0 75.3E5 TO 12.2S5 71.8E6
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
170530Z6 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 9.2S1
75.2E4. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
4. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.0S7 75.8E0 IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 9.2S1 75.2E4, ABOUT 200 NM ESE OF DIEGO GARCIA.
ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASING ORGANIZATION
OF A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). RECENT
170309Z0 SSMI PASS ALONG WITH 170328Z1 PARTIAL TRMM PASS BOTH
INDICATE INCREASING CONSOLIDATION OF CONVECTION NEAR THE LLCC WITH
DEVELOPING BANDING IN THE NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION.
200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES CONVECTION CURRENTLY IN A REGION OF WEAK
TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MOVING INTO AN AREA OF STRONG
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND A LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS NOW GOOD.
5. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
180630Z8.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20020117 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DINA) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z7 --- NEAR 11.5S7 72.4E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.5S7 72.4E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z5 --- 12.6S9 71.0E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z8 --- 13.7S1 69.7E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z6 --- 14.8S3 68.3E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z9 --- 15.9S5 66.9E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
172100Z1 POSITION NEAR 11.8S0 72.0E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (DINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM SOUTH
OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS DURING THE
PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 171730Z9 INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 TO 55 KNOTS. RECENT SPECIAL SENSOR
MICROWAVE IMAGERY (SSM/I) INDICATES A DEVELOPING EYEWALL. THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. AN APPROACHING
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CREATE A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-
LATITUDE RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM THAT SHOULD CAUSE THE TRACK TO
TURN MORE POLEWARD AFTER 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 171800Z7 IS 14 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
NAVPACMETOCCEN 170621Z JAN 02 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTXS21 PGTW 170630) NEXT WARNINGS AT 180900Z8 AND 182100Z2.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20020118 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DINA) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z5 --- NEAR 13.6S0 69.9E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.6S0 69.9E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z8 --- 15.3S9 67.8E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z6 --- 16.1S8 66.2E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z9 --- 16.7S4 64.6E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z8 --- 17.2S0 63.2E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (DINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 410 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 18
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
180530Z7 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS.
RECENT SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGERY (SSM/I) INDICATED A
DEVELOPING EYEWALL WITH 180716Z3 METSAT-5 VISIBLE IMAGERY NOW
SHOWING A VERY WELL DEFINED 17 NM DIAMETER EYE. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CREATE A
WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LATITUDE RIDGE AND CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO SLOW DOWN
AS STEERING FLOW TO THE SOUTH WEAKENS BY 48 HOURS. 180900Z8 POSITION
NEAR 14.0S5 69.4E9. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z5 IS
18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z2 AND 190900Z9.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20020118 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DINA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z8 --- NEAR 15.4S0 67.9E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4S0 67.9E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z6 --- 16.6S3 66.5E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z9 --- 17.2S0 64.8E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z8 --- 17.4S2 63.4E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z1 --- 17.5S3 62.0E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
182100Z2 POSITION NEAR 15.7S3 67.5E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (DINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 650 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
181730Z0 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 TO 90 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A
LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS. TC 10S IS THEN EXPECTED TO SLOW AND TRACK WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD AND WEAKENS
THE STEERING FLOW POLEWARD OF THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 181800Z8 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z9 AND
192100Z3.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20020119 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DINA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z6 --- NEAR 16.5S2 66.9E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S2 66.9E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z9 --- 17.4S2 65.7E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z8 --- 18.1S0 63.7E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z1 --- 18.5S4 62.0E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z9 --- 18.8S7 60.5E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
190900Z9 POSITION NEAR 16.7S4 66.6E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (DINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM
NORTHEAST OF RODRIGUES ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
190530Z8 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 KNOTS. AN EARLIER 190134Z8
TRMM (37 GHZ) PASS DEPICTED A PARTIAL EYEWALL FEATURE AND A STRONG
CONVECTIVE BAND OVER THE NORTH QUADRANT. MID-LEVEL HIGH HEIGHT
CENTER SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR IS FORECAST TO
BUILD GRADUALLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS CREATING A MORE
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IN THE SYSTEM. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A
BLEND OF AVAILABLE NWP (NOGAPS, AVN, GFDN, UKMET SPECTRAL) AND THE
DEEP BETA ADVECTION MODEL BASED OFF OF THE 190000Z0 NOGAPS RUN.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z6 IS 23 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 192100Z3 AND 200900Z1.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20020119 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DINA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z9 --- NEAR 17.2S0 65.7E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2S0 65.7E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z8 --- 17.7S5 64.3E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z1 --- 18.2S1 62.3E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z9 --- 18.5S4 60.5E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z2 --- 18.7S6 58.7E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
192100Z3 POSITION NEAR 17.3S1 65.4E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (DINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM
NORTHEAST OF RODRIGUES ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
191730Z1 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 AND 115 KNOTS. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS COOLING CLOUD TOPS AND A RAGGED
EYE FORMING AT THIS TIME. A MID-LEVEL HIGH HEIGHT CENTER SITUATED
OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR IS FORECAST TO BUILD GRADUALLY
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS CREATING A MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
MOTION IN THE SYSTEM. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF AVAILABLE
NWP (NOGAPS, AVN, GFDN, UKMET SPECTRAL). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 191800Z9 IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z1 AND
202100Z5.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20020120 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DINA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
200600Z8 --- NEAR 18.0S9 64.2E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.0S9 64.2E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z1 --- 18.5S4 62.5E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z9 --- 19.0S0 60.4E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z2 --- 19.2S2 58.4E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z0 --- 19.6S6 56.3E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
200900Z1 POSITION NEAR 18.1S0 63.8E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (DINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 110 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF RODRIGUES ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 200530Z0 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 127 TO 140 KNOTS. IMAGERY
ANALYSIS INDICATES A SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND OF THE TOPS OF THE
CONVECTIVE RING, AS WELL AS THE EMERGENCE OF A DISTINCT (APPROX) 19
NM EYE. THEREFORE, WE BUMPED UP THE INTENSITY TO 130 KNOTS. A
BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF MADAGASCAR TO (APPROX) 30.0S3 60.0E6 SHOULD INFLUENCE A
GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. OUR FORECAST
IS BASED ON A BLEND OF AVAILABLE NWP (NOGAPS, AVN, GFDN, UKMET
SPECTRAL) AND THE DEEP LAYER BETA ADVECTION MODEL BASED ON THE
200000Z2 NOGAPS RUN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z8 IS
26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 202100Z5 AND 210900Z2.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20020120 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DINA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
201800Z1 --- NEAR 18.6S5 62.6E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.6S5 62.6E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z9 --- 18.9S8 61.3E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z2 --- 18.9S8 59.7E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z0 --- 19.1S1 57.9E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z3 --- 19.2S2 55.9E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
202100Z5 POSITION NEAR 18.7S6 62.3E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (DINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 201730Z3 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 127 TO 140 KNOTS. IMAGERY
ANALYSIS INDICATES A WARMING TREND OF CLOUD TOPS DURING THE PAST 12
HOURS. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF MADAGASCAR SHOULD INFLUENCE A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE PASSAGE OF A MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH
LATE IN THE FORECAST IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AND TURN THE SYSTEM MORE
POLEWARD AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON
A BLEND OF AVAILABLE NWP (NOGAPS, AVN, GFDN, UKMET SPECTRAL) AND
PERSISTENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z1 IS 26 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 210900Z2 AND 212100Z6.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20020121 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DINA) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTH IO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
210600Z9 --- NEAR 18.9S8 60.5E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S8 60.5E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z2 --- 19.1S1 58.5E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z0 --- 19.4S4 56.5E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z3 --- 19.7S7 54.9E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z1 --- 20.1S3 53.5E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
210900Z2 POSITION NEAR 19.0S0 60.0E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (DINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 185 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 210530Z1
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 AND 127 KNOTS. A 210505Z3 SSM/I
PASS DEPICTED AN OUTER CONVECTIVE RING DEVELOPING AROUND THE
EXISTING INNER EYEWALL. CURRENT VISIBLE IMAGERY REVEALS EXPANSION OF
THE EYE FEATURE. A CONCENTRIC EYEWALL EVENT MAY BE IN THE MAKING,
WHICH WOULD CAUSE A TEMPORARY INTENSIFICATION PERIOD. THE
SUBTROPICAL MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR SHOULD INFLUENCE A GENERALLY WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE PERIOD. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A
BLEND OF AVAILABLE NWP (NOGAPS, AVN, GFDN, UKMET SPECTRAL) AND
PERSISTENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z9 IS 26 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z6 AND 220900Z3.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20020121 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DINA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
211800Z2 --- NEAR 19.3S3 58.5E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.3S3 58.5E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z0 --- 19.6S6 56.5E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z3 --- 19.8S8 55.0E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z1 --- 20.3S5 53.9E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z4 --- 21.2S5 53.0E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
212100Z6 POSITION NEAR 19.4S4 58.0E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (DINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 75 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS DURING THE
PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 211730Z4 INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 AND 127 KNOTS. A 211738Z2 SSM/I PASS IS NO
LONGER INDICATING CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS WITH 26 NM EYE DIAMETER NOTED
IN LATEST INFRARED IMAGERY. THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTH OF
THE SYSTEM SHOULD INFLUENCE A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS. AN UPSTREAM TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THIS RIDGE BY 36
HOURS AND ALLOW FOR TC 10S (DINA) TO BEGIN TRACKING SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF
PERSISTENCE AND AVAILABLE NWP (NOGAPS, AVN, GFDN, UKMET) WHICH ARE
ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SOUTHWEST MOTION LATE IN THE FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z2 IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 220900Z3 AND 222100Z7.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20020122 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DINA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z0 --- NEAR 19.5S5 56.8E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5S5 56.8E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z3 --- 19.9S9 55.3E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z1 --- 20.5S7 54.0E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z4 --- 21.4S7 53.2E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z2 --- 22.5S9 52.7E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
220900Z3 POSITION NEAR 19.6S6 56.4E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (DINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 60 NM
NORTHWEST OF PORT LOUIS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS DURING THE
PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 220530Z2 INFRARED AND
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 AND 127 KNOTS. A 42 NM EYE
DIAMETER IS NOTED IN THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD INFLUENCE A GENERAL
WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AN UPSTREAM TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THIS RIDGE BY 24 HOURS AND ALLOW FOR TC 10S
(DINA) TO BEGIN TRACKING SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND
AVAILABLE NWP (NOGAPS, AVN, GFDN, UKMET) AND CLIPPER WHICH ARE ALL
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z0 IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 222100Z7 AND
230900Z4.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20020122 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DINA) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z3 --- NEAR 20.3S5 54.9E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.3S5 54.9E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z1 --- 21.1S4 53.8E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z4 --- 22.1S5 52.9E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z2 --- 23.3S8 52.4E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z5 --- 24.5S1 52.1E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
222100Z7 POSITION NEAR 20.5S7 54.6E5
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (DINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 45 NM
NORTHWEST OF REUNION ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
221730Z5 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 AND 127 KNOTS. A 38 NM EYE
DIAMETER, SLIGHTLY ELONGATED, IS NOTED IN THE LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY. TC 10S (DINA) WILL BEGIN TRACKING SOUTHWEST UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED TO THE SOUTHEAST.
AN APPROACHING TROUGH, LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, WILL STEER THE
SYSTEM POLEWARD. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS (NOGAPS, AVN, GFDN, UKMET) WHICH ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON A CONTINUED TRACK SOUTHWEST AND THEN SOUTHWARD. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z3 IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
230900Z4 AND 232100Z8.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20020123 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DINA) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
230600Z1 --- NEAR 21.1S4 53.8E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.1S4 53.8E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z4 --- 22.2S6 52.7E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z2 --- 23.4S9 52.4E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z5 --- 24.5S1 52.3E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z3 --- 25.6S3 52.4E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
230900Z4 POSITION NEAR 21.4S7 53.5E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (DINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 90 NM WEST
OF REUNION ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS DURING
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 230530Z5 VISIBLE
AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 KNOTS. A 36 NM EYE DIAMETER IS
NOTED IN THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. TC 10S (DINA) WILL BEGIN
TRACKING SOUTHWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
SITUATED TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. AN APPROACHING TROUGH WILL STEER THE
SYSTEM POLEWARD. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS (NOGAPS, AVN, GFDN, UKMET) WHICH ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON A CONTINUED SOUTHWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 230600Z1 IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z8 AND
240900Z5.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20020123 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DINA) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z4 --- NEAR 22.8S2 53.1E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.8S2 53.1E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z2 --- 23.7S2 52.8E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z5 --- 24.5S1 52.4E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z3 --- 25.9S6 52.2E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z6 --- 27.4S3 52.3E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
232100Z8 POSITION NEAR 23.0S5 53.0E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (DINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 175 NM
SOUTHWEST OF REUNION ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
231730Z6 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 231501Z2 SSM/I PASS. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 90 AND 102 KNOTS. TC 10S (DINA) SHOULD CONTINUE TRACKING
SOUTHWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED
TO THE EAST AND AN APPROACHING MID-LAT TROUGH. MICROWAVE IMAGERY
INDICATES THE ONSEET OF EYEWALL EROSION DURING THE PAST 12 HOU
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20020124 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DINA) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z2 --- NEAR 25.3S0 52.7E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.3S0 52.7E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z5 --- 27.6S5 52.8E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z3 --- 28.6S6 53.4E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z6 --- 29.6S7 54.6E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z4 --- 30.6S9 57.3E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
240900Z5 POSITION NEAR 25.9S6 52.7E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (DINA), LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR,
HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 14 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 240530Z4 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 77 TO 90 KNOTS. ANIMATION DEPICTS THAT TC 10S (DINA) HAS BEGUN
EXTRA TROPICAL TRANSITION. TC 10S IS FORECAST TO TURN INCREASINGLY
SOUTHEASTWARD BY MID PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH A MID-
LATITUDE BAROCLINIC SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
240600Z2 IS 26 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (NO NAME)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. NEXT WARNINGS AT
242100Z9 AND 250900Z6.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20020124 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DINA) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z5 --- NEAR 27.8S7 52.4E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.8S7 52.4E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z3 --- 30.1S4 54.4E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
242100Z9 POSITION NEAR 28.4S4 52.9E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (DINA), LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR,
HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 241730Z7 INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS. ANIMATION DEPICTS THAT TC 10S
(DINA) NEARING THE FINAL STAGES OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. TC 10S
IS FORECAST TO TURN INCREASINGLY SOUTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE AS IT
INTERACTS WITH A MID-LATITUDE BAROCLINIC SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z5 IS 26 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON
THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN).
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (EDDY) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
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Document: dina.html
Updated: 25th January, 2002 |
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