Tropical Cyclones [Index]

Tropical Cyclone BERNIE [Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean]

WTPS23 PGTW 20020102 08:00z
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
115 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.7S2 139.1E4 TO 16.2S9
137.7E8 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT
JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS
TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 020530Z0 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.9S4 139.0E3. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 03 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.3S9 138.5E7 IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 14.9S4 139.0E3 OVER THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA. ANIMATION
DEPICTS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS.
SYNOPTIC DATA AND THE RADAR LOOP FROM GOVE, AUSTRALIA INDICATE A
BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED AT 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
030800Z1.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20020103 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (BERNIE) WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   030600Z9 --- NEAR 14.3S8 138.9E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S8 138.9E1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   031800Z2 --- 14.5S0 138.4E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   040600Z0 --- 14.7S2 137.9E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   041800Z3 --- 14.9S4 137.4E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z1 --- 15.1S7 136.8E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
030900Z2 POSITION NEAR 14.3S8 138.8E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09P (BERNIE) HAS DEVELOPED IN THE GULF OF
CARPENTARIA. TC 09P HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 030530Z1
VISIBLE AND INFERRED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS. ANIMATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST
OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
JUST EAST OF TC 09P, AS WELL AS A 700 MB RIDGE CENTERED AROUND 22S4
AND 132E6, WILL TRACK THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS OF NOGAPS AND THE BETA
ADVECTION MODELS AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO. 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE SYSTEM IS IN A WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
WITH GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A
NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS IT REMAINS IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z9
IS 08 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
NAVPACMETOCCEN 020753Z JAN 02 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTPS23 PGTW 020800) NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z6 AND 040900Z3.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20020203 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (BERNIE) WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   031800Z2 --- NEAR 15.3S9 138.7E9
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S9 138.7E9
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   040600Z0 --- 15.9S5 138.6E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   041800Z3 --- 16.4S1 138.5E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z1 --- 16.9S6 138.1E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z4 --- 17.3S1 137.4E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
032100Z6 POSITION NEAR 15.4S0 138.7E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09P (BERNIE) IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 80 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND, AND HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 031730Z4 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY, RADAR, AND
AVAILABLE SYNOPTIC DATA. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 TO 55 KNOTS, AND A BUOY REPORT
(52627) OF 43 KNOTS NEAR THE CENTER AT 031400Z8. ANIMATED SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST
OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
EAST OF TC 09P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS
(NGPS, AVN, EGRR, TLAPS, TCLPS) AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO. 200 MB
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS NORTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
IN A WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD
OUTFLOW ALOFT. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE BEFORE LANDFALL AS IT REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z2 IS 08 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 040900Z3 AND 042100Z7.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20020104 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (BERNIE) WARNING NR 003
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   040600Z0 --- NEAR 16.2S9 139.0E3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S9 139.0E3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   041800Z3 --- 16.8S5 138.8E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z1 --- 17.4S2 138.5E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z4 --- 17.9S7 138.1E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
040900Z3 POSITION NEAR 16.3S0 139.0E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09P (BERNIE) IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 25 NM
NORTHWEST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND, AND HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT
07 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
040530Z2 INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY, RADAR, AND
AVAILABLE SYNOPTIC DATA. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS, AND A BUOY REPORT
(52627) OF 32 KNOTS NEAR THE CENTER AT 040500Z9. ANIMATED SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS THE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST
OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
EAST OF TC 09P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS
(NGPS, AVN, GFDN, EGRR, TLAPS, TCLPS) AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO. 200
MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IN A WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT MAKES LANDFALL AROUND
041800Z3. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z0 IS 08 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 042100Z7 AND 050900Z4.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20020104 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (BERNIE) WARNING NR 004
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   041800Z3 --- NEAR 17.1S9 138.0E2
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S9 138.0E2
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z1 --- 17.8S6 137.2E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
042100Z7 POSITION NEAR 17.3S1 137.8E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09P (BERNIE) MADE LANDFALL AT 041300Z8, NEAR
16.8S 138.7E, APPROXIMATELY 30 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MORNINGTON
ISLAND, AND HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS DURING THE
PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 041730Z5 INFRARED
SATELLITE AND AVAILABLE SYNOPTIC DATA. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS.
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS (NGPS, AVN, GFDN, EGRR) AGREE WITH A
WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK AS THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY DISSIPATES. THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
(NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION.//