Tropical Cyclones [Index]

Tropical Cyclone 200219 [Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean]

WTPS21 PGTW 20020314 08:00z
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.9S6 160.6E3 TO 21.1S4
167.1E5 WITHIN THE NEXT 03 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT
JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS
TIME. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 140530Z3 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION
CENTER, WHICH IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE, IS NEAR 17.8S6 161.8E6. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.4S3
161.8E6 IS RELOCATED NEAR 17.8S6 161.8E6, APPROXIMATELY 380 NM
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THIS
CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN COVERAGE, AND SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 25 TO 35 KNOTS. 200 MB ANALYSIS AND
UW CIMSS SHEAR PRODUCTS SHOW THAT THE AREA IS SOUTH OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS UNDER MARGINAL DIFFUENCE ALOFT AND WEAK TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS NOW GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
150800Z4.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20020314 21:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/140751Z MAR 02//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   141800Z4 --- NEAR 20.3S5 164.4E5
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.3S5 164.4E5
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   150600Z2 --- 21.2S5 166.9E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   151800Z5 --- 21.9S2 169.6E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   160600Z3 --- 22.5S9 172.3E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   161800Z6 --- 22.7S1 175.3E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
142100Z8 POSITION NEAR 20.5S7 165.0E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P, LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHEAST COAST OF NEW
CALEDONIA IN THE SOUTH PACIFIC OCEAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
14 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
141730Z6 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 TO 45 KNOTS.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS INCREASED
CONVECTION AND IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 140749Z5 TROPICAL RAINFALL MEASURING MISSION (TRMM)
PASS REVEALS A DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 19P IS UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE NORTH-NORTHEAST
OF THE SYSTEM AND HAS PASSED POLEWARD OF THE RIDGE AXES. THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING EAST TO EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG
THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE, REMAINING JUST
NORTH OF THE MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES. INTENSIFICATION SHOULD REMAIN
SLOWER THAN THE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS IN THIS
PATTERN. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS (AVN AND NOGAPS) AGREE WITH THIS
SCENARIO. THE FORECAST TRACK IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
141800Z4 IS 09 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
NAVPACMETOCCEN 140751Z MAR 02 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTPS21 PGTW 140800). NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z5 AND 152100Z9.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20020315 09:00z    
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA 
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P WARNING NR 002    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   150600Z2 --- NEAR 21.6S9 169.2E8
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 26 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.6S9 169.2E8
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   151800Z5 --- 22.8S2 173.0E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 19 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   160600Z3 --- 24.3S9 176.7E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   161800Z6 --- 25.4S1 179.9W6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
150900Z5 POSITION NEAR 21.9S2 170.2E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD 
AT 26 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED 
ON 150530Z4 MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS. 
ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THE SYSTEM MOVING QUICKLY 
TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH ITS DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED SOUTHEAST OF THE 
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). TC 19P IS UNDER THE STEERING 
INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE 
SYSTEM AND HAS PASSED POLEWARD OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. THE 
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE 
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THE SYSTEM SHOULD 
REMAIN AT ITS CURRENT INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 
HOURS AS IT REMAINS JUST NORTH OF THE MID-LATITUDE UPPER LEVEL 
WESTERLIES AND HIGHER SHEAR. THEN, IT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BELOW TC 
INTENSITY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE 
WESTERLIES AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE 
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF AVN, EGRR, AND NOGAPS AGREE 
WITH THIS SCENARIO. THE FORECAST TRACK IS BASED ON A BLEND OF 
PERSISTENCE AND THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE 
HEIGHT AT 150600Z2 IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 152100Z9 AND 
160900Z6.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20020315 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P WARNING NR 003
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   151800Z5 --- NEAR 22.6S0 173.1E2
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 22.6S0 173.1E2
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   160600Z3 --- 23.6S1 176.3E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   161800Z6 --- 24.6S2 179.4E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   170600Z4 --- 25.1S8 179.1W8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
152100Z9 POSITION NEAR 22.9S3 173.9E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 365 NM SOUTHWEST OF
FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 19 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 151730Z7 ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 TO 45 KNOTS. A 151804Z9 SPECIAL
SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER PASS INDICATES THAT THE LOW LEVEL CENTER HAS
DECOUPLED FROM THE CONVECTION. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS
THAT 19P REMAINS SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND IS BEING SHEARED ON THE
SOUTHERN SIDE. A LOW/MID LEVEL HIGH HEIGHT CENTER SITUATED JUST
NORTH OF FIJI AND A BAROCLINIC LOW POSITIONED OVER NEW ZEALAND ARE
FORECAST TO INTERACT THROUGH THE PERIOD GENERATING A GENERALLY EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL MODELS CONSISTING OF
AVN, NOGAPS AND GFDN AGREE WITH THE ABOVE SCENARIO. THE FORECAST
TRACK IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS. TC 19P SHOULD WEAKEN AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS JUST POLEWARD OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z5
IS 08 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160900Z6 AND 162100Z0.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20020316 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P WARNING NR 004
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   160600Z3 --- NEAR 23.3S8 176.7E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 23.3S8 176.7E1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   161800Z6 --- 24.9S5 179.7E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
160900Z6 POSITION NEAR 23.7S2 177.5E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS DURING
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON A 160600Z3
TROPICAL RAINFALL MEASURING MISSION (TRMM) PASS. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON 160232Z4 ENHANCED INFRARED AND VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS THAT THE REMAINING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS
DISSIPATING RAPIDLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODERATE SHEAR AND COOLER
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL MODELS CONSIST OF
THE AVIATION, NOGAPS, AND GFDN MODELS. THE FORECAST TRACK IS BASED
ON A PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF THE DYNAMIC AIDS. TC 19P IS EXPECTED
TO BE DISSIPATED IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 160600Z3 IS 09 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE
SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//