Tropical Cyclones [Index]

Tropical Cyclone 200216 [Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean]

WTPS21 PGTW 20020224 01:30z
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.4S1 175.5E8 TO 24.5S1
174.0E2 WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT
JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS
TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
METSAT IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA AT 232330Z3 INDICATE THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 18.6S5 175.1E4. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.9S6 175.4E7 IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 18.6S5 175.1E4, APPROXIMATELY 190 NM WEST OF SUVA.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A DEVELOPING LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT, YET DISORGANIZED,
CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE EAST. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS THE AREA
IS UNDER WEAK DIFFLUENT FLOW, WHILE ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS THE CONVECTION IS STILL UNDERGOING WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO
30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 1003 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS NOW
GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
250130Z1.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20020224 15:00z    
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA 
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P WARNING NR 001    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   241200Z9 --- NEAR 20.6S8 175.0E3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.6S8 175.0E3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   250000Z7 --- 22.4S8 175.5E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   251200Z0 --- 24.0S6 176.4E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   260000Z8 --- 25.5S2 177.5E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM 
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   261200Z1 --- 27.0S9 179.1E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM 
    ---
REMARKS:
241500Z2 POSITION NEAR 21.0S3 175.1E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. TC 
16P HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE 
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 241130Z1 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. 
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY 
ESTIMATES OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A 
DEVELOPING SYSTEM WITH GOOD OUTFLOW CHANNELS TO THE NORTHEAST AND 
SOUTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS 
DEPICTS MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 16P IS UNDER THE STEERING 
INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND A TROUGH 
TO THE SOUTH. THEREFORE, TC 16P IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTH TO SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 16P IS EXPECTED TO 
INTENSIFY AT A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE UNDER INCREASING 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS WERE LIMITED WITH 
NOGAPS INDICATING A SOUTHWARD TRACK. AVN AND UK-MET OFFICE DO NOT 
INITIALIZE ON THE SYSTEM. FIELD ANALYSIS OF THOSE MODELS TRACK THE 
SYSTEM IN A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON 
PERSISTENCE, NOGAPS AND THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS THROUGH 48 HOURS, 
BLENDED WITH FIELD ANALYSIS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 
241200Z9 IS 12 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, 
NAVPACMETOCCEN 240121Z FEB 02 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 
(WTPS21 PGTW 240130) NEXT WARNINGS AT 250300Z0 AND 251500Z3.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20020225 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   250000Z7 --- NEAR 22.2S6 175.9E2
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 22.2S6 175.9E2
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   251200Z0 --- 24.2S8 177.0E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   260000Z8 --- 25.9S6 178.5E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   261200Z1 --- 27.5S4 179.3W0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   270000Z9 --- 28.2S2 176.1W5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
250300Z0 POSITION NEAR 22.7S1 176.2E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 283 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 242330Z4
INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE EAST.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TC 16P IS SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. TC 16P IS
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND WEAKEN
THEREAFTER UNDER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SYSTEM IS UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTHEAST OF THE
SYSTEM AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO A
WEAKNESS OF THE LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE SOUTH OF THE STORM. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS INCLUDE NGPS, GFDN, AVN, AND UK-MET OFFICE
(EGRR). EGRR, NGPS AND AVN KEEP THE SYSTEM WEAK AND ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON TRACK AND SPEED. GFDN TRACKS THE SYSTEM QUICKLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST WHICH JTWC ATTRIBUTES TO ERRONEOUS DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SYSTEM. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z7
IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 251500Z3 AND 260300Z1.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20020225 15:00z    
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA 
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P WARNING NR 003    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   251200Z0 --- NEAR 22.9S3 176.3E7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 22.9S3 176.3E7
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   260000Z8 --- 23.9S4 176.8E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   261200Z1 --- 25.2S9 177.7E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   270000Z9 --- 26.2S0 179.0E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
251500Z3 POSITION NEAR 23.2S7 176.4E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 311 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS DURING THE 
PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 251130Z2 INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT 
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED 90 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST. UPPER AIR 
ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TC 16P IS SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS UNDER THE 
INFLUENCE OF STRONG MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. TC 16P IS EXPECTED TO 
WEAKEN UNDER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DISSIPATE BY THE END 
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE 
OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM AND IS EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO A WEAKNESS OF THE LOW TO MID 
LEVEL RIDGE SOUTH OF THE STORM. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS INCLUDE 
NGPS, GFDN, AVN, AND UK-MET OFFICE (EGRR). EGRR, NGPS AND AVN KEEP 
THE SYSTEM WEAK AND ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TRACK AND SPEED. GFDN 
TRACKS THE SYSTEM QUICKLY TO THE SOUTHEAST WHICH JTWC ATTRIBUTES TO 
ERRONEOUS DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON 
PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM 
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z0 IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 
260300Z1 AND 261500Z4.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20020226 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P WARNING NR 004
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   260000Z8 --- NEAR 23.2S7 176.9E3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 23.2S7 176.9E3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   261200Z1 --- 23.4S9 177.5E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
260300Z1 POSITION NEAR 23.2S7 177.1E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM SOUTH OF
SUVA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 252330Z5 VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH THE LITTLE REMAINING
DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED 113 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 16P WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE PERIPHERY RIDGE TO THE EAST. TC 16P WILL DISSIPATE
UNDER STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSIST OF NGPS, GFDN, AND AVIATION. OUR
FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z8 IS 12
FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//