Tropical Cyclones [Index]

Tropical Cyclone 200203 [Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean]

WTXS21 PGTW 20011121 00:30z
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
2. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 6.7S3 130.9E3 TO 7.3S0 124.6E3
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
202300Z7 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 6.7S3
130.3E7. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS.
3. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.6S2
132.0E6 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.7S3 130.3E7, APPROXIMATELY 200 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF TIMOR IN THE BANDA SEA. ANIMATED VISIBLE AND
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASED ORGANIZATION OF THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLCC. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE REGION IS EQUATORWARD OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE BUT BENEATH
REGION OF WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS NOW GOOD.
4. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
220030Z7.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20011121 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S WARNING NR 001
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTH IO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   210600Z9 --- NEAR 6.9S5 128.9E0
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 6.9S5 128.9E0
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   211800Z2 --- 7.4S1 127.0E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   220600Z0 --- 8.0S8 125.2E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z3 --- 8.5S3 123.5E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z1 --- 9.0S9 122.0E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
210900Z2 POSITION NEAR 7.0S7 128.4E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE BANDA SEA AND HAS
TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 210530Z1 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 30 TO 45 KNOTS. VISIBLE ANIMATION DEPICTS SIGNIFICANT
ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION PARTICULARLY OVER THE VORTEX CENTER
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY WITH A SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE UPPER-LEVEL SUB-EQUATORIAL RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO RE-ESTABLISH OVER THE TRACK BY THE 48 HOUR PERIOD. THE FORECAST
IS BASED ON CLIMATOLOGICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z9 IS 08 FEET. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 210021Z NOV 01 TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 210030) NEXT WARNINGS AT
212100Z6 AND 220900Z3. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (NO NAME)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20011121 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S WARNING NR 002
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   211800Z2 --- NEAR 7.4S1 126.2E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 7.4S1 126.2E1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   220600Z0 --- 7.8S5 123.8E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
212100Z6 POSITION NEAR 7.5S2 125.6E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S, LOCATED OVER THE BANDA SEA, HAS
TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 211730Z4 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 TO
30 KNOTS AND SYNOPTIC REPORTS OF 15 KNOTS. SATELLITE ANIMATION
DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION, BUT NO ORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION.
RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES POSSIBLE LINEAR CONVERGENCE.
SYNOPTIC REPORTS INDICATE PRESSURES OF 1012 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z2 IS 8 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE
SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//