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Tropical Cyclone 200201
[Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean] 
WTXS21 PGTW 20011005 23:30z
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 180 NM RADIUS OF 10.5S6 82.5E5 WITHIN THE NEXT 03 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.  WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED
TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 052030Z0 INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 10.5S6 82.5E5. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.5S6 82.5E5 HAS
REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY, APPROXIMATELY 620 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASE IN THE
DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). RECENT QUIKSCAT DATA REVEALS A DEFINED LLCC. THE
200MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THE REGION IS IN A MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS NOW GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
062330Z4.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20011006 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   060600Z2 --- NEAR 11.2S4 83.0E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.2S4 83.0E1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z5 --- 12.0S3 83.1E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z3 --- 12.8S1 82.8E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z6 --- 13.6S0 82.7E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z4 --- 14.5S0 83.0E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
060900Z5 POSITION NEAR 11.4S6   83.0E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 663 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 7 KNOTS DURING
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 060530Z4
VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS.
ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) APPROXIMATELY 30 NM EAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE
200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE DISTURBANCE IS UNDER THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN A REGION OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z2 IS 9 FEET.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 052321Z
OCT 01 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 052330)
NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z9 AND 070900Z6.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20011006 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   061800Z5 --- NEAR 11.9S1 82.5E5
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.9S1 82.5E5
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z3 --- 12.7S0 82.0E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z6 --- 13.6S0 81.8E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z4 --- 14.9S4 82.1E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z7 --- 16.7S4 82.5E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
    ---
REMARKS:
062100Z9 POSITION NEAR 12.1S4 82.4E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 655 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 6 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 061730Z7
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS. ANIMATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH WEAKENING CONVECTION. NEW CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN
THE PAST 3 HOURS. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE DISTURBANCE
IS UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EQUATORWARD OF THE AXIS IN A REGION
OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 061800Z5 IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z6 AND
072100Z0.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20011007 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S WARNING NR 003
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   070600Z3 --- NEAR 12.1S4 82.7E7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.1S4 82.7E7
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z6 --- 13.0S4 82.6E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z4 --- 13.9S3 82.3E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z7 --- 15.1S7 82.3E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600Z5 --- 16.9S6 82.6E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
070900Z6 POSITION NEAR 12.3S6 82.7E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 670 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 2 KNOTS DURING
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 07530Z5
INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CYCLING CONVECTION. THE 200 MB
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE DISTURBANCE IS UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IN A REGION OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z3 IS 9 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z0 AND 080900Z7.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20011007 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S WARNING NR 004
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   071800Z6 --- NEAR 13.1S5 82.1E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.1S5 82.1E1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z4 --- 14.4S9 81.6E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z7 --- 16.0S7 81.7E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600Z5 --- 17.7S5 81.9E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z8 --- 20.2S4 82.4E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
072100Z0 POSITION NEAR 13.4S8 82.0E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 670 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 8 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 071730Z8
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS. ANIMATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH VERY WEAK CYCLING CONVECTION. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT THE DISTURBANCE IS UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN A
REGION OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SYSTEM SHOULD
DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z6 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
080900Z7 AND 082100Z1.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20011008 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S FINAL WARNING NR 005
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   080600Z4 --- NEAR 14.2S7 82.6E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S7 82.6E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z7 --- 16.0S7 83.2E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600Z5 --- 18.1S0 84.1E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
080900Z7 POSITION NEAR 14.7S2 82.7E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 720 NM SOUTHEAST OF
DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 8 KNOTS DURING THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 07530Z5 INFRARED
AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
FIELD ANALYSIS ESTIMATES OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS NO LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH VERY WEAK
CYCLING CONVECTION. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE
DISTURBANCE IS UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN A REGION OF 10 TO 20
KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SYSTEM SHOULD DISSIPATE COMPLETELY
BY THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
080600Z4 IS 15 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
Document: 200201.html
Updated: 22nd November, 2001
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