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Tropical Cyclone CHARLY
[Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean]
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Tropical Cyclone CHARLY [Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean] |
WTXS21 PGTW 20010119 06:30z
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/181151Z JAN 01//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 181200)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 120 NM RADIUS OF 15.0S6 83.6E7 WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED
TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 190530Z8 INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.3S8 84.8E0. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS SHOWN
SOME IMPROVEMENT IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) HAS BEGUN TO MOVE BENEATH THE CONVECTION. A RECENT
QUICKSCATT PASS INDICATES INCREASED WIND SPEEDS AT THE SURFACE.
UW-CIMSS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PRODUCT INDICATES THE SYSTEM REMAINS
UNDER WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH IMPROVING UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
200630Z1.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20010119 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (CHARLY) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z9 --- NEAR 15.1S7 83.6E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 15.1S7 83.6E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z8 --- 15.5S1 82.5E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z1 --- 15.9S5 81.4E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
105 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z9 --- 16.1S8 79.7E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z2 --- 16.1S8 77.9E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
140 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
192100Z3 POSITION NEAR 15.2S8 83.3E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (CHARLY) HAS DEVELOPED APPROXIMATELY 800
NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA OVER THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN. TROPICAL
CYCLONE (TC) 06S HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS DURING
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 191730Z1 INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 TO 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC 06S HAS IMPROVED ORGANIZATION
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH A WEAK CONVECTIVE BAND DEVELOPING SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 191125Z9
TROPICAL RAINFALL MEASURING MISSION PASS DEPICTED A WELL-DEFINED
LLCC WITH A CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING INTO THE WESTERN QUADRANT.
IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS THAT CONVECTION HAS CYCLED AS THE SYSTEM
CONSOLIDATES. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVED OUTFLOW,
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, WITH A NORTHWESTERLY JET
ENHANCING THE OUTFLOW. A LOW-MID LEVEL HIGH, CENTERED SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF TC 06S AT APPROXIMATELY 33S6 91E0, IS PROVIDING THE
DOMINANT STEERING FLOW. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD AND
STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WHICH WILL PROVIDE A
GENERALLY WESTWARD STEERING INFLUENCE AFTER 12-24 HOURS. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z9 IS 10 FEET. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 190621Z JAN 01 TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 190630) NEXT WARNINGS AT
200900Z1 (DTG 200751Z5) AND 202100Z5 (DTG 01951Z8).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20010120 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (CHARLY) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
200600Z8 --- NEAR 16.2S9 82.2E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S9 82.2E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z1 --- 17.0S8 80.5E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z9 --- 17.9S7 78.5E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z2 --- 18.6S5 76.3E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z0 --- 19.3S3 73.8E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
200900Z1 POSITION NEAR 16.4S1 81.8E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (CHARLY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 780 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 200530Z0
VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 TO 55 KNOTS. A
200330Z8 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I) PASS DEPICTED A
PRIMARY BAND WRAPPING FROM THE NORTHEAST TO WEST QUADRANTS OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS GOOD OUTFLOW, AND THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. TC 06S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
WITHIN A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE CREATED BY A MID-LAT TROUGH
POLEWARD OF THE SYSTEM. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE
TROUGH AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS FEATURE
SHOULD PROVIDE A GENERALLY WESTWARD STEERING INFLUENCE LATE IN THE
PERIOD. THE SYSTEM SHOULD INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z8 IS 14 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 202100Z5 (DTG 201951Z8) AND 210900Z2 (DTG
210751Z6).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20010120 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (CHARLY) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
201800Z1 --- NEAR 17.0S8 80.8E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S8 80.8E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z9 --- 17.5S3 78.9E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z2 --- 17.8S6 76.9E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z0 --- 17.9S7 74.3E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z3 --- 18.2S1 71.6E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
202100Z5 POSITION NEAR 17.1S9 80.3E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (CHARLY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1000 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT MATHURIN, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 08
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
201730Z3 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 TO 77 KNOTS.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS INCREASING ORGANIZATION
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH A BANDING EYE. A 201629Z0 SPECIAL SENSOR
MICROWAVE IMAGER PASS DEPICTS A PRIMARY BAND WRAPPING INTO THE
WESTERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
GOOD OUTFLOW, AND THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM REMAINS
UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. TC 06S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
WITHIN A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE CREATED BY A MID-LAT TROUGH
POLEWARD OF THE SYSTEM. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE
TROUGH AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS FEATURE
SHOULD PROVIDE A GENERALLY WESTWARD STEERING INFLUENCE BY MID-
PERIOD. THE SYSTEM SHOULD INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z1 IS 14 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 210900Z2 (DTG 210751Z6) AND 212100Z6 (DTG
211951Z9).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20010121 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (CHARLY) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
210600Z9 --- NEAR 17.3S1 78.2E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3S1 78.2E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z2 --- 18.2S1 76.0E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z0 --- 19.3S3 73.8E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z3 --- 20.4S6 71.6E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z1 --- 21.7S0 69.1E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
210900Z2 POSITION NEAR 17.5S3 77.7E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (CHARLY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 850 NM
EAST OF PORT MATHURIN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS DURING THE
PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 210530Z1 VISIBLE AND
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 TO 77 KNOTS. ANIMATED
MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM POSSESSES A
BANDING EYE WITH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
A 210341Z1 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER PASS DEPICTED A PRIMARY
BAND WRAPPING INTO THE WESTERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. THE 200 MB
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM REMAINS BENEATH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
TC 06S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WITHIN A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE CREATED BY AN APPROACHING MID-LAT TROUGH THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. TC 06S SHOULD TRACK IN A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AND MOVE
POLEWARD OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN
WEAKENING BY MID-PERIOD AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. THE WIND RADII HAS BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON A RECENT QUIKSCAT
PASS OVER THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z1 IS
18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z6 (DTG 211951Z9) AND 220900Z3 (DTG
220751Z7).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20010121 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (CHARLY) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
211800Z2 --- NEAR 17.9S7 76.3E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9S7 76.3E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z0 --- 18.8S7 73.8E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z3 --- 19.7S7 71.2E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
105 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z1 --- 20.7S9 68.6E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z4 --- 21.7S0 66.0E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
212100Z6 POSITION NEAR 18.1S0 75.7E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (CHARLY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 740 NM
EAST OF PORT MATHURIN, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 09 KNOTS DURING
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 211730Z4 INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 TO 90 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A 29-NM IRREGULAR EYE WITH IMPROVED SYSTEM
ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 8 HOURS. A 211615Z6 SPECIAL SENSOR
MICROWAVE IMAGER PASS DEPICTED A PRIMARY BAND WRAPPING INTO THE
WESTERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM REMAINS UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY DEPICTS GOOD OUTFLOW OVER TC 06S, AND ALSO SHOWS A
MIDLATITUDE LOW NEAR 30.0S3 67.0E3 WITH ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING
NORTHWEST. TC 06S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD A
WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE CREATED BY THE APPROACHING MID-LAT
TROUGH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 06S SHOULD REMAIN UNDER THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE. AFTERWARDS, TC 06S IS EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
SOUTH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 211800Z2 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220900Z3 (DTG 220751Z7) AND
222100Z7 (DTG 221951Z0).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20010122 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (CHARLY) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z0 --- NEAR 18.3S2 73.9E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 18.3S2 73.9E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z3 --- 19.2S2 71.6E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z1 --- 20.1S3 69.3E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z4 --- 20.8S0 66.8E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z2 --- 21.6S9 64.2E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
220900Z3 POSITION NEAR 18.5S4 73.3E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (CHARLY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 930 NM
EAST OF PORT LOUIS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS DURING THE PAST
6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 220530Z2 VISIBLE AND
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A 33 NM IRREGULAR EYE WITH IMPROVED SYSTEM
ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. A 220030Z7 SPECIAL SENSOR
MICROWAVE IMAGER PASS DEPICTED A RING OF DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING
THE EYE. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM REMAINS UNDER THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS GOOD OUTFLOW
OVER TC 06S, AND ALSO SHOWS AN APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROUGH. TC 06S
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE CREATED BY THE APPROACHING MID-LAT TROUGH THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 06S SHOULD REMAIN UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AXIS FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE. AFTERWARDS, TC 06S IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR POLEWARD OF
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
220600Z0 IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 222100Z7 (DTG 221951Z0) AND
230900Z4 (DTG 230751Z8).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20010122 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (CHARLY) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z3 --- NEAR 19.4S4 72.1E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 19.4S4 72.1E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z1 --- 20.7S9 70.2E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z4 --- 21.9S2 68.1E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z2 --- 23.0S5 65.3E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z5 --- 23.6S1 62.4E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
222100Z7 POSITION NEAR 19.7S7 71.6E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (CHARLY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 822 NM
EAST OF MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS DURING THE
PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 221730Z5 INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TC 06S HAD A 20 NM EYE WITH SOME DECREASE
IN CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE
UW-CIMSS UPPER LEVEL WIND ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM REMAINS
UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS
GOOD OUTFLOW OVER TC 06S, AND ALSO SHOWS AN APPROACHING TROUGH. TC
06S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE CREATED BY THE APPROACHING TROUGH THROUGH THE 36
HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO RESUME A MORE
WESTWARD TRACK AFTER 36 HOURS AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH OF
THE SYSTEM. TC 06S SHOULD REMAIN UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS
FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND MAINTAIN CURRENT INTENSITY. AFTERWARDS, TC
06S IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR POLEWARD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 221800Z3 IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230900Z4 (DTG
230751Z8) AND 232100Z8 (DTG 231951Z1).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20010123 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (CHARLY) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
230600Z1 --- NEAR 20.8S0 70.2E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 20.8S0 70.2E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z4 --- 22.0S4 68.2E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z2 --- 22.8S2 66.0E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z5 --- 23.7S2 63.3E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z3 --- 24.5S1 60.3E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
230900Z4 POSITION NEAR 21.1S4 69.7E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (CHARLY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 390 NM
EAST OF PORT MATHURIN, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS DURING
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 230530Z3 INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 AND 102 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC 06S HAS FILLED ITS EYE. ADDITIONALLY
THERE HAS BEEN A DECREASE IN CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE UW-CIMSS UPPER LEVEL WIND ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM REMAINS UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS GOOD OUTFLOW OVER TC 06S, AND ALSO SHOWS
AN APPROACHING TROUGH. TC 06S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE CREATED BY
THE APPROACHING TROUGH THROUGH THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. TC 06S
IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR POLEWARD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
230600Z1 IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z8 (DTG 231951Z1) AND
240900Z5 (DTG 240751Z9).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20010123 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (CHARLY) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z4 --- NEAR 22.1S5 67.7E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 22.1S5 67.7E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z2 --- 23.2S7 65.0E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z5 --- 24.1S7 62.1E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z3 --- 25.4S1 59.3E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z6 --- 26.8S6 56.5E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
232100Z8 POSITION NEAR 22.4S8 67.0E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (CHARLY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 580 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
231730Z6 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 231750Z8 TROPICAL RAINFALL
MEASURING MISSION (TRMM) PASS. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TC 06S HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AND
HAS LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION REMAINING. THE UW-CIMSS UPPER LEVEL WIND
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AND IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS WEAKENED
THE SYSTEM. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS DRIER AIR BEING
ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE WEST HAS ALSO SERVED TO WEAKEN
THE SYSTEM. TC 06S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST.
TC 06S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR POLEWARD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 231800Z4 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z5 (DTG
240751Z9) AND 242100Z9 (DTG 241951Z2).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20010124 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (CHARLY) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z2 --- NEAR 22.6S0 64.6E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 22.6S0 64.6E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z5 --- 23.3S8 61.6E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z3 --- 24.2S8 58.7E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z6 --- 25.6S3 56.0E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z4 --- 27.2S1 53.7E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
240900Z5 POSITION NEAR 22.8S2 63.8E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (CHARLY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 420 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
240530Z4 INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55
KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TC 06S HAS
CONTINUED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AND HAS LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION
REMAINING. THE UW-CIMSS UPPER LEVEL WIND ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND IS IN AN AREA OF
20 TO 30 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
DEPICTS DRIER AIR BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE WEST
WHICH HAS ALSO SERVED TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. TC 06S IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO
MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 06S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
WEAKENING AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR POLEWARD
OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z2 IS 18
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z9 (DTG 241951Z2) AND 250900Z6 (DTG
250751Z0).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20010124 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (CHARLY) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z5 --- NEAR 23.5S0 61.4E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 23.5S0 61.4E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z3 --- 24.6S2 58.7E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z6 --- 25.9S6 56.4E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z4 --- 27.0S9 54.5E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z7 --- 27.8S7 52.7E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
242100Z9 POSITION NEAR 23.8S3 60.7E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (CHARLY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 365 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 15 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 241730Z7
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 TO 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC 06S HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN
RAPIDLY WITH REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM
SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 241712Z7
SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER PASS FURTHER INDICATES A FULLY
EXPOSED LLCC. THE UW-CIMSS UPPER LEVEL WIND ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT
THE SYSTEM IS SOUTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF 20
TO 30 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 06S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID-
LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 06S SHOULD CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT
ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SLIGHTLY COOLER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TC 06S SHOULD DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z5 IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 250900Z6 (DTG 250751Z0) AND 252100Z0 (DTG 251951Z3).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20010125 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (CHARLY) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
250600Z3 --- NEAR 24.6S2 59.1E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 24.6S2 59.1E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z6 --- 26.1S9 56.7E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z4 --- 27.3S2 55.0E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
250900Z6 POSITION NEAR 25.0S7 58.5E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (CHARLY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 287 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 13 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 250530Z5 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 TO
45 KNOTS. VISIBLE ANIMATION AND A PARTIAL 250357Z2 SPECIAL SENSOR
MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I) PASS DEPICT A FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH ASSOCIATED WEAKENING CONVECTION SHEARED
APPROXIMATELY 36 NM TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER
WEST-NORTHWESTERLIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE SYSTEM THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THEREFORE, TC 06S IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z3 IS 15 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 252100Z0 (DTG 251951Z3).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20010125 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (CHARLY) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
251800Z6 --- NEAR 25.2S9 57.5E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 25.2S9 57.5E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z4 --- 25.6S3 56.7E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
252100Z0 POSITION NEAR 25.3S0 57.3E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (CHARLY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM
SOUTH OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWEST AT 05 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 251730Z8
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS, AND A 251353Z9
QUIKSCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
A 251405Z7 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER PASS DEPICT A FULLY
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH ISOLATED DEEP
CONVECTION 80 NM EAST OF THE LLCC. THE 251353Z9 QUIKSCAT PASS
DEPICTS AN ELONGATED LLCC WITH STRONGER WINDS IN THE POLEWARD
SEMICIRCLE. MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER WEST-NORTHWESTERLIES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE PERIOD. THEREFORE, TC
06S IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z6 IS 12 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
(NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION.//
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Document: charly.htm
Updated: 14th April, 2004 |
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