Tropical Cyclones [Index]

Tropical Cyclone 200121 [Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean]

WTXS21 PGTW 20010621 17:00z
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
2. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 140 NM RADIUS OF 26.2S0 36.0E9 WITHIN THE NEXT 03 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED
TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 221430Z2 INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 26.1S9 35.7E5. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
3. REMARKS: ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A VERY SMALL
(MIDGET) SYSTEM HAS FORMED IN THE SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL
APPROXIMATELY 180 NM EAST OF MAPUTO. IMAGERY REVEALS A VERY TIGHTLY
WOUND CIRCULATION WITH A VERY SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION
SURROUNDING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. NEARBY SYNOPTIC REPORTS INDICATE
15 TO 30 KNOTS WITH RECENT PRESSURE FALLS IN THE AREA. THE MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1014 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
4. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
221700Z2.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20010621 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   211800Z2 --- NEAR 26.0S8 36.3E2
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 070 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   REPEAT POSIT: 26.0S8 36.3E2
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   220600Z0 --- 25.6S3 38.0E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z3 --- 25.6S3 39.7E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z1 --- 25.7S4 41.4E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z4 --- 26.3S1 43.8E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
212100Z6 POSITION NEAR 25.9S6 36.7E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S HAS DEVELOPED IN THE SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL, APPROXIMATELY 180 NM EAST OF MAPUTO. THE SYSTEM HAS TRACKED
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 9 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 211730Z4 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 45 KNOTS. THIS SYSTEM IS VERY SMALL IN DIAMETER AND TRACKING
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM IS EXPERIENCING
MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR AND SHOULD WEAKEN OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z2 IS 16 FEET. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 211651Z6 JUN 01
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 211700) NEXT WARNINGS
AT 220900Z3 AND 222100Z7.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20010622 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S WARNING NR 002
      01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
      MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
        ---
      WARNING POSITION:
      220600Z0 --- NEAR 25.9S6 39.0E2
          MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 085 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
          POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
          POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
      PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
      MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
      RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM
      REPEAT POSIT: 25.9S6 39.0E2
        ---
      FORECASTS:
      12 HRS, VALID AT:
      221800Z3 --- 25.8S5 41.2E7
      MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
      RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM
      VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 09 KTS
        ---
      24 HRS, VALID AT:
      230600Z1 --- 25.9S6 43.1E8
      MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
      RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 035 NM
      VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 07 KTS
        ---
      36 HRS, VALID AT:
      231800Z4 --- 26.2S0 44.7E5
      MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
      VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 07 KTS
        ---
      EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
      48 HRS, VALID AT:
      240600Z2 --- 26.7S5 46.1E1
      MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
      DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
        ---
REMARKS:
220900Z3 POSITION NEAR 25.9S6 39.6E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 340 NM EAST OF
MAPUTO. THE SYSTEM HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 220530Z2 VISIBLE
AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS. THIS
SYSTEM IS VERY SMALL IN DIAMETER AND TRACKING EASTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE
NORTH. THE SYSTEM IS EXPERIENCING MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR AND SHOULD
WEAKEN TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z0 IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 222100Z7 AND
230900Z4.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20010622 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S WARNING NR 003
      01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
      MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
        ---
      WARNING POSITION:
      221800Z3 --- NEAR 25.5S2 41.0E5
          MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 075 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
          POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
          POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
      PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
      MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
      DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
      REPEAT POSIT: 25.5S2 41.0E5
        ---
      FORECASTS:
      12 HRS, VALID AT:
      230600Z1 --- 25.5S2 42.8E4
      MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
      DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
      VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 08 KTS
        ---
      24 HRS, VALID AT:
      231800Z4 --- 25.6S3 44.6E4
      MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
      DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
        ---
REMARKS:
222100Z7 POSITION NEAR 25.5S2     41.4E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S, LOCATED OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, HAS
TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 221730Z5 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPERIENCING MODERATE VERTICAL
SHEAR AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z3 IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
230900Z4.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20010623 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S WARNING NR 004
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   230600Z1 --- NEAR 24.6S2 41.9E4
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 24.6S2 41.9E4
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z4 --- 23.8S3 42.0E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
230900Z4 POSITION NEAR 24.4S0 41.9E4.
EX-TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S, LOCATED OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL,
HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 230530Z3 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPERIENCING MODERATE
VERTICAL SHEAR AND HAS MOVED OVER COOLER WATERS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z1 IS 8 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE
SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//