[Index]
Monthly Global Tropical Cyclone Summary October 1999
[Summaries and Track Data] [Prepared by Gary Padgett]
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Cyclones
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Monthly Global Tropical Cyclone Summary October 1999 [Summaries and Track Data] [Prepared by Gary Padgett] |
MONTHLY GLOBAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY
OCTOBER, 1999
(For general comments about the nature of these summaries, as well as
information on how to download the tabular cyclone track files, see
the Author's Note at the end of this summary.)
***********************************************************************
TROPICAL CYCLONE NAMES
for the AUSTRALIAN REGION
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology maintains three Tropical
Cyclone Warning Centres (TCWC): Perth, Western Australia; Darwin,
Northern Territory; and Brisbane, Queensland. Each centre is allotted
a separate list of tropical cyclone names for tropical cyclones forming
within its area of responsibility (AOR). In addition a TCWC located at
Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea (PNG)--a former Australian territory--
maintains a list of native names to assign to the very rare tropical
cyclones which form within its AOR.
The AORs of the respective centres are:
(1) Perth - 125E westward to 90E. Technically, Perth's AOR is south of
10S with Indonesia being responsible for waters north of 10S, but
I believe the plan is that any rare tropical cyclone which might
form north of 10S would be named by Perth.
(2) Darwin - 125E eastward to 138E and extending northward to the
equator. There is a little irregularity with the eastern border
in the Gulf of Carpentaria. The Darwin TCWC issues High Seas
Warnings for the entire Gulf of Carpentaria, but Brisbane issues
Tropical Cyclone Advices and names cyclones in the eastern portion
of the Gulf.
(3) Brisbane - 138E eastward to 160E and generally south of 10S. The
northern border with the Port Moresby AOR is somewhat irregular.
(4) Port Moresby, PNG - immediate vicinity of the island of New Guinea
and eastward to 160E generally north of 10S although the southern
border is somewhat irregular.
Names for the 1999-2000 season (** indicates name has already been
assigned):
Perth Darwin Brisbane Port Moresby
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Ilsa ** Winsome Steve Epi
John ** Alistair Tessi Guba
Kirrily Bonnie Vaughan Ila
Leon Craig Wylva Kama
Marcia Debbie Abigail Matere
Norman Evan Bernie Rowe
Olga Fay Claudia Tako
Paul George Des Upia
Rosita Erica
Sam Fritz
Taryn Grace
Vincent Harvey
Walter Ingrid
Alex Jim
Bessi Kate
***********************************************************************
OCTOBER HIGHLIGHTS
--> Atlantic continues active--South Florida and Leeward Islands
experience hurricane strikes
--> Eastern India struck by two intense cyclones--one very deadly
--> North Pacific relatively quiet--northern Luzon struck by typhoon
***********************************************************************
ACTIVITY BY BASINS
ATLANTIC (ATL) - North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico
Activity for October: 2 tropical depressions
1 tropical storm
2 hurricanes
NOTE: Much of the information presented below was obtained from the
TPC/NHC discussion bulletins issued with every regular advisory. All
references to sustained winds imply a 1-min averaging period unless
otherwise noted. A special thanks to John Wallace, a tropical cyclone
enthusiast and college student from San Antonio, for providing me with
a log he had kept of all Atlantic/Northeast Pacific tropical waves and
LOWs which proved to be very valuable in helping to trace the pre-
depression history of some of the cyclones.
Atlantic Activity for October
-----------------------------
After the demise of Hurricane Gert and Tropical Storm Harvey in
September, a short lull ensued in the Atlantic tropics. Two tropical
depressions formed late in the first week of October, but it was not
until 13 Oct, almost three weeks after Gert had become extratropical
in the far North Atlantic, that the next tropical storm--Irene--formed
in the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Irene crossed western Cuba and
south Florida as a Category 1 hurricane and later deepened rather
explosively off the North Carolina coast into a strong Category 2
hurricane on the Saffir/Simpson scale. About the same time that
Irene was strengthening off the Outer Banks, Jose was born in the
deep tropical Atlantic east of the Windward Islands. Jose intensified
into a Category 2 hurricane and struck the northern Leeward Islands,
an area which has experienced hurricane strikes in every year since
1995 with the exception of the strong El Nino year of 1997. Finally,
at the end of the month, a tropical depression in the southwestern
Caribbean briefly became Tropical Storm Katrina before making landfall
in Nicaragua.
Tropical Depression #11 can be traced to a tropical wave which
was approaching the Lesser Antilles on 26 Sep. The wave moved through
the Caribbean Sea during the following days and by 30 Sep a 1008-mb
LOW had formed east of Cape Gracias a Dios, Nicaragua. The disturbance
continued moving west-northwestward across the northwestern Caribbean
Sea and over the southern Yucatan Peninsula. The broad area of low
pressure had reached the extreme southern Bay of Campeche by 4 Oct,
and around midday a reconnaissance flight was made into the area by
the U. S. Air Force Reserves 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron
(the Hurricane Hunters). The Hurricane Hunters found a CP of 1003 mb
and maximum FLW of 44 kts south of the center but winds of only 15 kts
over much of the remainder of the circulation. It was felt that the
stronger winds could be due to funneling along the coast or else due
to downbursts. Since the wind field and convection had become better
organized, advisories were initiated on Tropical Depression #11.
The depression was located just offshore of the northern coast of
the Mexican state of Tabasco. Over the next couple of days the
system moved little, perhaps drifting very slowly west-northwestward.
The upper-level atmospheric pattern was favorable for intensification,
but the depression did not intensify due to two probable reasons:
(1) its proximity to land, and (2) much of the would be low-level
inflow bypassed the depression for a trough over the Gulf of Mexico to
the north. A reconnaissance flight around midday on 5 Oct found a CP
of 1005 mb with maximum FLW of 30 kts. Rich Henning related to me
that during a flight into the depression on which he was present,
there was an area approximately 200 nm in diameter over which the
pressure did not vary by more than 1 or 2 mb. The convective pattern
remained rather chaotic and uncharacteristic of what would be expected
in a developing tropical cyclone.
By midday on the 6th a flight by the Hurricane Hunters could not
find a center so the depression was declared dissipated. However,
despite the lack of a center, winds increased considerably along the
western side of the former circulation. Ship PGEC reported winds of
40-48 kts and the reconnaissance aircraft found FLW as high as 50 kts.
Convection with very cold cloud tops to -80 C developed and persisted
in association with the depression over eastern Mexico between Tampico
and Veracruz, and very heavy rains fell over much of the region,
leading to some devastating flooding with much loss of life. Press
reports indicated that nine Mexican states were affected by the
flooding and landslides resulting from the heavy rains, with Hidalgo,
Puebla, Veracruz, and Tabasco being the hardest hit. The town of
Pantepec in Hidalgo state was partially covered by landslides. Over
100,000 people were evacuated in the state of Tabasco along the
southern Bay of Campeche coast. An on-line report by the U. N. Office
for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) dated 2 November
indicates that the death toll was 476 with 160 persons still missing.
However, heavy rains not directly associated with Tropical Depression
#11 continued over the region through much of October, and it is very
difficult to assess just how much of the disaster was attributable
to the depression's rainfall.
Tropical Depression #12 developed from a tropical wave which left
the west African coast around 30 Sep. A 1011-mb LOW had formed on the
wave by 3 Oct, and advisories were begun on the system at 0300 UTC on
6 Oct when the center was located approximately 850 nm east-northeast
of Barbados. With an anticyclone in place over the system, the
depression was initially given a good chance to intensify, but west-
southwesterly flow associated with an upper-level LOW to the northwest
began undercutting the anticyclone and led to shearing which hampered
development and ultimately led to the depression's dissipation.
During its life the depression moved slowly in a west-northwesterly
direction and was located about 800 nm east of Guadeloupe when the
final advisory was issued at 08/1800 UTC.
Hurricane Irene (TC #13)
13 - 21 October
-------------------------
Contrary to most Atlantic tropical cyclones this season, Hurricane
Irene appears not to have been spawned by a tropical wave of African
origin. An area of disturbed weather had developed over the
extreme southwestern Caribbean Sea by late on 10 Oct, and over the
ensuing couple of days drifted generally northwestward. A flight was
made by the Hurricane Hunters into the area on 12 Oct but a well-
defined LLCC could not be found, although surface pressures were low
between northeastern Honduras and the Cayman Islands. On the morning
of 13 Oct, however, satellite images and radar observations from Grand
Cayman indicated that the LOW had become much better organized and was
upgraded directly to Tropical Storm Irene at 1500 UTC. The center
of the storm was then located about 150 nm southwest of Grand Cayman.
A reconnaissance flight during the afternoon found a CP of 1002 mb
and a poorly-organized center with tropical storm-force winds
limited to a band northeast of the center. However, Irene had plenty
of deep convection, excellent outflow and banding features, and was
forecast to intensify. Irene initially moved northward and within
18 hours was upgraded to a 65-kt hurricane located just southwest of
the Isle of Youth. The storm displayed an impressive satellite
signature with the center embedded within very cold convection with
tops to -80 C. Hurricane-force winds extended out only 15 nm from
the center but gales reached outward up to 115 nm.
Irene moved northward to a position just west of the Isle of Youth
but then jogged northeastward, crossing the northwestern portion of
the island during the morning of 14 Oct. Then the hurricane took
another jog, this time to the north, which carried it over western
Cuba and just west of Havana around 15/0000 UTC. Havana reported
wind gusts to 63 kts as the eye of Irene passed by. After emerging
from Cuba the eye of the hurricane moved somewhat erratically--even
re-forming at one point--but in general tracked north-northeastward
toward the southwestern tip of Florida. Irene's eye was just south
of Key West at 1200 UTC and made landfall near Cape Sable around mid-
afternoon on the 15th. During the early morning a reconnaissance
flight reported FLW of 85 kts well east of the center but it was felt
that those winds may have been associated with a mesocyclone in an
outer band. Cloud tops were as cold as -89 C at one point. Irene's
organization as seen in satellite imagery improved during the day and
the MSW increased a little to 75 kts just before the center made
landfall.
As Hurricane Irene passed through the Florida Keys, quite a few
stations reported winds well above tropical storm force and some
reported gusts above hurricane force. Dry Tortugas (24.6 N, 82.7 W)
reported a peak sustained wind of 41 kts at 15/0900 UTC with a peak
gust of 51 kts. Long Key (24.8 N, 80.4 W) experienced sustained
winds exceeding tropical storm force for several hours, reaching
50 kts at 2000 UTC with a peak gust of 61 kts and a pressure of 988.7
mb. Molasses Reef (25.0 N, 80.3 W) likewise recorded a sustained
wind of 50 kts at 15/2000 UTC with peak gusts reaching 63 kts and
a pressure of 992.1 mb. Winds gusted above hurricane force for
several hours at Sombrero Key (24.6 N, 81.0 W), reaching a peak of
69 kts. The maximum sustained wind of 55 kts was recorded at
1500 UTC and the lowest pressure of 990.8 mb was measured at 1600 UTC.
Sand Key (24.1 N, 82.0 W) reported a pressure of 987.0 mb at 1200 UTC
but the winds were only around 14 kts gusting to 31 kts at the time.
Sand Key's highest winds (sustained 44 kts, peak gust of 57 kts)
were reported earlier at 0600 UTC. During the morning of the 15th
(time unspecified) Big Pine Key reported a gust as high as 89 kts.
(A special thanks to Eric Blake at Colorado State University for
sending me a compilation of weather station observations. If anyone
would like the complete file, please e-mail a request to me and I'll
be very happy to send it along.)
By late afternoon of the 15th Irene's center was inland over the
extreme southern portion of the Florida peninsula, and hurricane-
force winds were confined to a few squalls offshore of the southeast
coast where a reconnaissance aircraft reported FLW of 93 kts and a
CP of 985 mb. A wind gust of 75 kts was measured at Homestead during
the afternoon and an unofficial gust of 65 kts was reported from Mercy
Hospital in Miami. Miami International Airport reported gusts to
60 kts during the late afternoon and a gust of 67 kts was reported
during the early evening hours at Fowey Rocks Light. Hurricane-force
winds at this time extended out over the Atlantic up to 60 nm from the
center. During the night Irene continued north-northeastward across
southern Florida and by the early morning of 16 Oct was moving out
into the Atlantic near Jupiter Inlet. The passage across the southern
peninsula appeared to take a toll on the storm as cloud tops warmed
somewhat. A reconnaissance flight during the very early morning hours
found a CP of 986 mb and 77-kt winds north of the center at 850 mb.
Also, ship ELUB8 reported winds to 65 kts east of Ft. Lauderdale at
0300 UTC.
Upon reaching the Atlantic Irene turned to a due northward course,
skimming the Florida east coast and gradually pulling farther away
from the coastline. Vero Beach and Melbourne reported gusts to 55 kts
and 50 kts, respectively, during the morning of the 16th as Irene
chugged northward. Satellite images revealed that the storm's cloud
pattern was somewhat disorganized, but a reconnaissance aircraft found
a pressure of 986 mb and peak winds of 85 kts during the morning; also,
ship WFLG reported sustained winds of 68 kts to the northeast of the
center, so Irene's MSW was adjusted from 65 kts to 70 kts in the
1500 UTC advisory. Hurricane Irene had expanded in areal extent by
the afternoon of 16 Oct with hurricane-force winds extending outward
90 nm and tropical storm-force winds out to 220 nm. The eye had
become very large with minimal deep convection. St. Augustine and
Daytona Beach reported gusts to around 48 kts as the hurricane
continued northward offshore, and St. Augustine later reported a gust
to 67 kts at 0213 UTC.
Although vertical shear across the storm was minimal, drier air
was pulled into the circulation and this led to a significant decrease
in the deep convection. Reconnaissance data during the evening of
the 16th showed a drop in the dew point of 8 deg C during the previous
twelve hours. Irene had reached a point about 100 nm due south
of Charleston, South Carolina, by 17/1200 UTC but then turned to a
northeasterly heading which paralleled the South and North Carolina
coasts. During the morning there was an intense burst of convection
followed by a drop in central pressure although the winds did not
increase. At 2341 UTC Frying Pan Shoals reported a wind gust of
59 kts. The center of Irene had become better defined by this time
and dew points were 10 deg C higher than 24 hours earlier. The CP
had dropped to 973 mb and was still falling. A reconnaissance flight
into the storm very early on 18 Oct found a big surprise! Irene had
developed a very tight wind center within the deep convection and FLW
at 850 mb were 114 kts just southeast of the center. Winds of 129 kts
were observed at 902 mb by an eyewall dropwindsonde and the CP had
dropped rather significantly to 958 mb. The surface MSW was estimated
at 90 kts in the advisory at 0900 UTC. The hurricane was located about
30 nm south-southeast of Cape Hatteras at this time and was starting
to accelerate rapidly to the northeast.
By 1500 UTC Irene was beginning to exhibit some extratropical
characteristics as it sped northeastward, but there was a symmetric
area of deep convection near the center, so the MSW was held at 90 kts
based on persistence and Dvorak intensity estimates. During the day
Irene continued to accelerate northeastward and gradually lost tropical
characteristics. TPC/NHC wrote the last advisory on Irene at 19/0300
UTC as the storm passed over 200 nm southeast of Halifax, Nova Scotia,
and merged with a cold front. Winds, however, were still above
hurricane force and the transformed extratropical storm remained very
potent for several more days as it traversed the North Atlantic. The
last position available to the author placed the storm's center
several hundred miles west of Ireland at 21/1800 UTC.
In Cuba widespread damage to crops was reported with the tobacco
crop in Sancti Spiritus province and banana plantations in Cienfuegos
province being especially hard hit. Four deaths were reported: two
by drowning and two by electrocution. There were extensive telephone
and power outages, and thousands of persons had to be evacuated when
many reservoirs overflowed in several western provinces. More than
27,000 homes were damaged with 730 completely destroyed. In the
Havana area 400 buildings suffered significant damage.
In southern Florida Hurricane Irene dumped between 250 and 500 mm
of rain. Total losses in the state, mainly agricultural, were
assessed to be around $800 million. There were eight deaths
indirectly attributed to Irene in Florida--either by drowning or by
electrocution. (The information in this paragraph was taken from the
seasonal summary prepared by the Hurricane Specialists at TPC/NHC.)
Hurricane Jose (TC #14)
17 - 28 October
------------------------
A tropical wave left the coast of Africa on 8 Oct and travelled
westward across the Atlantic. The system slowly became better
organized and by 17 Oct exhibited banding features and an excellent
upper-level outflow. A ship north of the developing center reported
20-kt easterly winds and a pressure of 1006 mb, so advisories were
initiated on Tropical Depression #14. At 1800 UTC the depression
was centered about 550 nm east-southeast of Barbados. At 0000 UTC
a ship with call sign C6QG4, located a short distance west of the
estimated center, reported northeast winds of only 7 kts with a
pressure of 1007.5 mb; however, satellite imagery indicated increasing
organization. By early morning on 18 Oct well-defined banding
features with cloud tops to -80 C just north of the center had
developed, and with Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB reflecting
this, the depression was upgraded to Tropical Storm Jose at 0900 UTC.
Jose presented a very symmetrical appearance in satellite imagery
and upper-level outflow was impressive. A reconnaissance flight
during the afternoon found a minimum CP of 1000 mb and peak FLW of
52 kts at 450 m altitude.
Jose continued to move on a general west-northwesterly course
toward the Lesser Antilles as it steadily intensified. The storm
was located about 200 nm east-southeast of Martinique at 19/1200 UTC,
and a reconnaissance flight found winds of 73 kts in a small area to
the northeast of the center. Satellite intensity estimates from SAB
and TAFB had reached T4.0, so Jose was upgraded to the season's seventh
hurricane at 1500 UTC. An early evening reconnaissance flight found
peak FLW (at 850 mb) of 91 kts and a CP of 986 mb, while another
aircraft during the very early morning hours of 20 Oct found a pressure
of 986 mb and FLW of 99 kts. The surface MSW was increased to 80 kts on
the 20/0900 UTC advisory. Satellite imagery indicated very cold cloud
tops to -85 C and the aircraft reported a 30-nm wide eye open to the
south. A later flight by the Hurricane Hunters during the morning
of the 20th measured winds of 111 kts at the 964-mb level and found
a CP of 978 mb. The MSW estimate was upped to 85 kts at 1500 UTC,
thereby making Jose a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir/Simpson scale.
Satellite T-numbers were 5.0 (90 kts) from TAFB, SAB, and KGWC at this
time.
The eye of Hurricane Jose crossed over the island of Antigua around
local noon on 20 Oct. A gust of 89 kts was measured on the island
and was relayed to TPC/NHC by the Director of the Meteorological
Service of Antigua. After crossing Antigua Jose continued on toward
the west-northwest, passing just south of St. Barthlemy and St. Martin
during the early evening hours. St. Martin reported sustained winds
of 44 kts with gusts to 61 kts while St. Barthlemy recorded sustained
winds of 60 kts with gusts to 77 kts. It is likely that stronger winds
were experienced at higher elevations on some of the islands. The
center of Jose at this time was embedded within a CDO of very deep
convection with tops to -85 C, although the cloud pattern as seen in
satellite imagery was becoming less impressive. As the storm
continued west-northwestward it began to encounter shearing associated
with an upper-level trough extending from the central Caribbean into
the Atlantic.
During the early morning hours of 21 Oct the southwesterly shear
increased and Jose began to weaken. A reconnaissance flight early
on 21 Oct found that the pressure had risen to 992 mb and the highest
FLW recorded was 65 kts. The LLCC was near the southwestern edge
of the deep convection. The weakening storm passed through the
British Virgin Islands during the morning of the 21st with the center
over or very near Tortola (and just east of St. John in the USVI)
around 1200 UTC. Jose was downgraded to a 55-kt tropical storm
at 1500 UTC since the LLCC was becoming exposed. St. Thomas reported
sustained winds of 38 kts with gusts to 45 kts around midday as the
storm passed to the north of the island.
After leaving the Virgin Islands Tropical Storm Jose began to
turn more to the north-northwest and eventually north, reaching the
westernmost point of its track at 1200 UTC on 22 Oct when it was
centered about 100 nm north of San Juan, Puerto Rico. A reconnaissance
flight very early on 23 Oct found a CP of 994 mb and a peak FLW of
only 63 kts 90 nm east-northeast of the center. A GPS dropwindsonde,
however, measured only 38 kts at the same location. A surface wind
analysis prepared by AOML/HRD showed a peak surface wind of 49 kts, so
the official MSW was reduced to 50 kts at 23/0600 UTC. As Jose's
track tended more to the north-northeast, the relative shear over the
storm began to decrease and the cyclone began to show signs of
regaining intensity. A Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM)
overpass at 24/0517 UTC showed that the LLCC was better involved with
the deep convection than it had been the previous day and the MSW
was increased to 60 kts in the 0900 UTC advisory. During the morning
visible imagery and data from another TRMM overpass confirmed that
the center was well embedded within the deeper convection, and since
the latest Dvorak T-numbers supported hurricane strength, Jose was
re-classified as a minimal hurricane at 1500 UTC when it was centered
about 265 nm southeast of Bermuda.
The hurricane was beginning to accelerate rapidly to the north-
northeast and the re-intensification was short-lived. By 0300 UTC
on 25 Oct Jose was beginning to merge with a frontal cloud band and was
downgraded to a 60-kt tropical storm. Six hours later TPC/NHC wrote
the final advisory as Jose continued to merge with the frontal zone
about 525 nm northeast of Bermuda and about 565 nm south-southwest of
Cape Race, Newfoundland. The extratropical remnants of Jose continued
to race north-northeastward into the North Atlantic and eventually
deepened into a very intense extratropical storm with winds well above
hurricane force which remained quasi-stationary between Iceland
and Greenland for several days.
The hardest hit island was Antigua where two persons were killed
and more than a dozen injured. More than 500 persons were left
homeless and 815 houses suffered damage to or loss of the roof. On
Antigua 50% of the telephones were out of service and 90% of the
island was without electricity immediately after Jose's passage. A
few homes on St. Barthelemy were damaged also. In the Virgin Islands
there were reports of scattered damage, but it appears to have been
relatively minor.
Tropical Storm Katrina (TC #15)
28 October - 1 November
--------------------------------
A Tropical Weather Outlook issued by TPC/NHC on 26 Oct mentioned
that a broad area of low pressure had developed over the southwestern
Caribbean Sea. Like the forerunner of Irene, this system seems to
have not been associated with a tropical wave of African origin. The
disturbance gradually became better organized over the next couple of
days while remaining essentially stationary, and a reconnaissance
flight by the Hurricane Hunters around midday on the 28th was able to
close off a center with a CP of 1001 mb. Therefore, advisories were
begun on Tropical Depression #15 at 2100 UTC. The broad center of the
depression was located roughly 100 nm southeast of San Andres Island.
The last fix by the aircraft reported a peak wind of 37 kts at 450 m
and a CP of 1002 mb with the center located on the eastern edge of the
deep convection.
Naturally, during the night the center was difficult to track with
infrared imagery. A 0600 UTC wind observation from San Andres
suggested that there was a low-pressure center to the east-northeast of
the island. This was partially explained as likely being related to
a tropical wave arriving from the east and causing an adjustment of the
wind field as the two systems merged. Morning visible satellite images
revealed a partially-exposed LLCC still on the eastern edge of the deep
convection. The depression was experiencing easterly shear due to
an upper-level anticyclone positioned over the central Caribbean Sea.
The system during this time was moving generally northwestward toward
the Nicaraguan coast. A reconnaissance mission into the depression
around midday on 29 Oct found a CP of 999 mb, a maximum FLW (at 450 m)
of 43 kts, and a surface wind of 35 kts. Based upon this information,
the system was upgraded to Tropical Storm Katrina at 2100 UTC when
it was centered about 100 nm south-southeast of Cabo Gracias a Dios,
Nicaragua.
Katrina's life as a tropical storm was ephemeral. By 0000 UTC
on 30 Oct the minimal tropical storm was making landfall on the coast
of Nicaragua about 40 km southwest of Puerto Cabezas. By 0300 UTC
Katrina had been downgraded back to a tropical depression over land.
Deep convection had become limited to a small area west of the center.
The weakening depression continued moving northwestward across north-
eastern Nicaragua and into eastern Honduras where its circulation
became increasingly disrupted by the mountainous terrain. By late
afternoon on the 30th the circulation appeared to have become elongated
with possible multiple centers. But observations during the evening
from La Ceiba and Roatan in Honduras showed persistent southwesterly
winds--indicating that the center had re-formed in the Gulf of
Honduras. However, Katrina did not have enough time over water to
begin to show any appreciable signs of re-intensification.
The weak depression with only 25-kt winds soon moved back inland
over the southern Yucatan Peninsula. During 31 Oct visible satellite
imagery suggested that Katrina's center had become a little better
defined, and it was thought that the system might have a shot at some
modest strengthening if it moved out over the Gulf of Mexico before
being overtaken by an approaching cold front. However, the
depression's forward motion slowed, keeping the center over land, and
by the afternoon of 1 Nov Katrina was being absorbed into a cold front
that was moving across the Yucatan Peninsula. It is estimated that
Katrina likely caused from 250 to 380 mm of rain across portions of
Central America, but there have been no reports of damage or fatalities
resulting from the storm.
***********************************************************************
NORTHEAST PACIFIC (NEP) - North Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 180
Activity for October: 1 tropical storm
NOTE: Much of the information presented below was obtained from the
TPC/NHC discussion bulletins issued with every regular advisory (CPHC
for locations west of 140W.) All references to sustained winds imply
a 1-min averaging period unless otherwise noted.
The following report on Tropical Storm Irwin was authored by John
Wallace of San Antonio, Texas. John is a very keen tropical cyclone
enthusiast who has a special interest in tropical cyclones and the
climatology of the Eastern North Pacific, and has made a serious study
of the relationship between tropical cyclones in this basin and the
El Nino/La Nina cycles. John is currently a student at the San Antonio
branch of the University of Texas.
Hopefully next year, if time permits, John will be writing the
summaries for all, or at least some, of the Northeast Pacific basin
tropical cyclones. I invited him to get a little chance to "cut his
teeth" by writing up Tropical Storm Irwin.
Northeast Pacific Activity for October
--------------------------------------
The only tropical cyclone to form in the Northeast Pacific basin
during October was Tropical Storm Irwin. Irwin formed on 8 Oct about
100 nm south-southwest of Manzanillo, initially moved northward, then
turned to the west and had dissipated over cooler waters well to the
southwest of Cabo San Lucas near Socorro Island by 11 Oct.
Tropical Storm Irwin (TC-14E)
8 - 11 October
------------------------------
NOTE: While the lion's share of the following narrative is exactly as
John wrote it, I did perform a little editing, mainly to keep
references to time, dates, distances, etc. in the same units and
formats which I have always followed. One thing I did let stand as
John had originally written it: the use of the "L" suffix for Atlantic
tropical depressions (e.g., TD-11L). The WMO's _Global Guide to
Tropical Cyclone Forecasting_ suggests the use of the letter "L" for
Atlantic tropical systems, and some models (the UKMET for one) use this
nomenclature. But since TPC/NHC does not attach this suffix to
tropical depressions in their advisories, I have chosen not to use it
either in the monthly summaries and cyclone tracks files.
The development of Tropical Storm Irwin--the last named storm of the
extremely quiet 1999 season--does not appear to have been associated
with a tropical wave. The disturbance that became Irwin formed within
a broad region of low pressure over the Bay of Campeche and southern
Mexico, the same region in which TD-11L was embedded. Though it is
highly unlikely that Irwin was the redevelopment of TD-11L--the
pre-Irwin low formed the same day that TD-11L dissipated in a location
far to the west--it is possible that the development of these two
cyclones represents a roughly twin tropical cyclogenesis. More likely,
the large area of strong convection and low pressure associated with
TD-11L helped to "jump start" Irwin's development.
As TD-11L was weakening over the Bay of Campeche late on 5 Oct,
a large cyclonic disturbance developed to its southeast from a
convective complex that had propagated westward. The disturbance was
centered roughly over the Gulf of Tehuantepec at 1800 UTC on 5 Oct.
There was weak cyclonic curvature apparent at this time. The
disturbance was situated near the southern terminus of a frontal zone
(responsible for the hostile shear over TD-11L) that extended far to
the northeast. However, it seemed to have only a modest effect on
the pre-Irwin disturbance.
The disturbance organized slowly and remained near the Mexican coast
for the next two days. The 1800 UTC tropical surface analysis prepared
by TPC/NHC on 6 Oct showed a 1006-mb tropical LOW near 15.0 N, 107.0 W.
Interaction with the coast, and perhaps modest shear, limited
development; convection was broad and intermittent. In fact, its
organization weakened on the 7th before increasing dramatically on
8 Oct. At 1205 UTC on 8 Oct the disturbance was upgraded to TD-14E,
although the first advisory was not issued by NHC until 2100 UTC
when the center was located roughly 100 nm south-southwest of
Manzanillo, Mexico. Increased organization apparent on satellite and
radar imagery warranted upgrading the depression to Tropical Storm
Irwin at 09/0300 UTC.
Irwin initially tracked slowly northward. Though the models
indicated that a strong ridge building to the north would turn Irwin
quickly northwest and west before reaching the coast, Irwin's proximity
to the coast warranted the issuance of a tropical storm warning with
the advisory at 0300 UTC on 9 Oct as the storm passed to within 60 nm
of Manzanillo. It is likely that the Mexican coast between Manzanillo
and Punta San Telmo experienced tropical storm-force winds associated
with Irwin along with the squally weather preceding its formation.
No significant damage or casualties were noted.
Irwin did not disappoint forecasters; the expected westward turn
occurred early on the 9th, and by 1200 UTC that day Irwin was tracking
west-northwestward away from the coast. During this time Irwin
steadily intensified, deepening to 997 millibars with a MSW of 50 kts
by 2100 UTC when it was centered about 300 nm southeast of Cabo San
Lucas on the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. The
satellite appearance of Irwin was surprisingly ragged for a storm
of this intensity; it had improved slightly by 2300 UTC.
Irwin continued to track westward under the influence of a strong
ridge to the north on 10 Oct. Outflow remained good in the western
semicircle. Irwin's peak was short-lived--it began a steady weakening
trend on the 10th as it tracked into cooler waters. Water vapor imagery
also suggested the entrainment of dry air into the circulation. The
LLCC became exposed to the northwest of the storm's deep convection
by 1200 UTC on 10 Oct; thereafter, the decay of the tropical cyclone
was extremely rapid. By 2300 UTC that same day Irwin was devoid of
significant deep convection. As it weakened, Irwin turned to the
southwest, following the low-level flow. The final advisory on Irwin
was issued at 0300 UTC on 11 Oct; this was also the advisory which
downgraded it to a tropical depression about 300 nm south-southwest of
Cabo San Lucas and near Socorro Island. A weak low-level vortex
persisted for several days, dissipating by the 16th.
***********************************************************************
NORTHWEST PACIFIC (NWP) - North Pacific Ocean West of Longitude 180
Activity for October: 1 tropical storm
1 typhoon
NOTE: Most of the information on each cyclone's history presented in
the narrative will be based upon JTWC's advisories, and references to
winds should be understood as a 1-min avg MSW unless otherwise noted.
However, in the accompanying tracking document I have made comparisons
of coordinates with JMA (Japan) and the Philippines (PAGASA) when their
positions differed from JTWC's by usually 40-50 nm or more. Also, as
announced earlier in a separate posting, a column of 10-min avg MSW
is included--the values being obtained from either PAGASA's or JMA's
advisories. A special thanks to Michael V. Padua, owner of the
Typhoon '99 webpage, for sending me the PAGASA and JMA tracks.
In the title line for each storm I plan to reference all the cyclone
names/numbers I have available: JTWC's depression number and name (if
any), JMA's tropical storm numeric designator, and PAGASA's name for
systems forming in or passing through their area of responsibility.
Northwest Pacific Activity for October
--------------------------------------
In contrast to the preceding two months, the month of October was
relatively quiet in the Northwest Pacific basin. Only two tropical
depressions formed and both of these became named tropical storms. Eve
remained fairly weak and nebulous, but Dan intensified into a 110-kt
typhoon (per JTWC's analysis), equalling Typhoon Leo in late April for
the honor of being the year's second strongest typhoon (after Super
Typhoon Bart in September). Dan cut across the extreme northern
end of Luzon in the Philippines, then turned northward and moved into
eastern China. The much weaker Eve moved across the central
Philippines and eventually into northern Vietnam.
Typhoon Dan/Pepang (TC-26W / TY 9920)
2 - 11 October
--------------------------------------
A Significant Tropical Weather Outlook (STWO) from JTWC on 1 Oct
mentioned that an area of convection had developed west of the Marianas
and had persisted for ten hours in a region where vertical shear was
relatively weak. A few hours later (02/0000 UTC) another STWO was
issued upgrading the development potential of the disturbance to Fair.
A LLCC was developing with increasing winds and falling pressures.
The system was apparently beginning to develop rapidly, and a Formation
Alert was issued at 0230 UTC. Warnings were initiated by JTWC, JMA,
and PAGASA at 1200 UTC with PAGASA naming the depression Pepang. The
center of Pepang was located about 500 nm east-northeast of Catanduanes
Island in the Philippines at that time. Although persistent, the
convection was somewhat disorganized with the deepest convection
located west of the LLCC. The depression was forecast to track west-
northwestward within the strong flow of a subtropical ridge to the
northeast.
At 0000 UTC on 3 Oct JTWC upgraded the depression to Tropical Storm
Dan based upon satellite intensity estimates of 30-35 kts and ship
reports of 27-33 kts. Deep convection was increasing around the LLCC
and Dan/Pepang was forecast to continue intensifying. Twelve hours
later a CDO had formed over the LLCC with an anticyclone aloft and
also significant banding features had developed. JTWC increased the
MSW to 45 kts, and JMA and PAGASA both upgraded the system to a
tropical storm with 35-kt MSW (10-min avg) at the same time. A period
of rapid intensification had begun and JTWC and PAGASA upgraded the
storm to typhoon intensity at 04/0600 UTC when it was located about
235 nm east of Luzon. A 45-nm wide eye had developed and significant
banding features were located northwest and east of the LLCC. The
typhoon exhibited good outflow and some very cold cloud tops.
Typhoon Pepang reached its peak intensity of 110 kts at 0000 UTC on
5 Oct as it was nearing the northeastern coast of Luzon, being located
only a short distance southeast of Cabo Engano at the time. (JMA's and
PAGASA's peak 10-min MSW of 80 kts and 75 kts, respectively, were
reached at the same time. Surprisingly, PAGASA's estimate was lower
than JMA's--usually the reverse is true for stronger typhoons.) The
typhoon moved across the extreme northern end of Luzon and by 1200 UTC
had emerged into the South China Sea just west of Laoag, a city on the
northwestern tip of the island. The MSW (1-min) per JTWC's warnings
had dropped to 90 kts during the storm's passage across Luzon. By
1800 UTC Dan/Pepang's forward motion had slowed considerably, from
around 12 kts to only 3 kts as the typhoon encountered a strong surface
ridge of high pressure.
Over the next couple of days Typhoon Dan moved rather slowly as
steering currents were weak. The storm was between subtropical ridges
to the west and northeast with strong surface pressures over south-
eastern China which prevented any significant movement to the north-
west. The storm moved slowly westward, later curving to the north.
The typhoon also weakened slightly with MSW dropping to 80 kts at
0600 UTC on 6 Oct. The westernmost point of Dan's track was reached
around 07/0000 UTC when it was centered about 200 nm northwest of
Laoag on Luzon. The typhoon by this time was displaying a banding-
type eye and overall convective organization had increased. By
0600 UTC on 7 Oct Typhoon Dan was located about 250 nm southeast of
Hong Kong and was moving northward at 5 kts. The estimated MSW had
increased to 90 kts and Dan was sporting an eye 30 nm in diameter.
Twenty-four hours later Dan was located about 160 nm west of the
southern tip of Taiwan and was moving northward into the Taiwan Strait.
A SSM/I pass indicated that the diameter of the eye had increased to
60 nm as the typhoon maintained its 90-kt intensity. At 1200 UTC the
JTWC warning noted that eye definition had improved with a deep
convective band wrapping three-quarters of the way around the eye but
that drier air was moving into the storm from the southwest. By
09/0000 UTC Dan was located just off the Chinese coast near Xiamen,
moving northward at 7 kts. The typhoon was beginning to weaken due to
land interaction and drier air intrusion. Typhoon Dan made landfall
in China near Xiamen and continued northward over eastern China. The
MSW had decreased to 35 kts by 1800 UTC and there was an elongated
band of convection north of the system. The storm was downgraded to
a depression at 0000 UTC on 10 Oct.
JMA dropped the system at 09/1800 UTC but JTWC continued to track
the residual depression northward just inland across eastern China.
By 10/1200 UTC the weak depression was moving north-northeastward
back out to sea just south of Shanghai and was beginning to transition
into an extratropical LOW. The final JTWC warning was issued at
11/0000 UTC with the now fully extratropical LOW located southwest of
Cheju Island and racing northeastward at 26 kts toward the southern
Korean Peninsula.
Patrick Hoareau of Rennes, France, sent me a couple of rainfall
measurements resulting from Typhoon Dan/Pepang. At Hengchun, on the
southern tip of Taiwan, 167 mm of rain was measured in 24 hours ending
at 06/1200 UTC. At Baguio in northwestern Luzon, 366 mm was recorded
in an 18-hour period ending at 1800 UTC on 5 Oct with 266 mm falling
during the first 12 hours of the period. (A special thanks to
Patrick for passing along this information.) Storm total rainfall
values at Bingu and Ambuklao (Philippines) were 328 mm and 300 mm,
respectively.
On Luzon the total damage assessment was equivalent to $1.8 million
U. S. dollars. At least 10 persons lost their lives--most due to
landslides. Over 400 homes were destroyed with over 4000 damaged,
mainly by flooding. At Laoag, near where Dan/Pepang's eye exited
Luzon, agricultural losses were estimated at almost 268,000 pesos.
In China the cities of Quanzhou, Xiamen, and Zhangzhou were hardest
hit. The death toll in China was 30 and the total economic losses
were estimated at $241.6 million U. S. dollars.
Typhoon Dan/Pepang, although not becoming an unusually intense
typhoon, was nonetheless a fairly well-defined system for most of its
lifetime. The track coordinates issued by JTWC, JMA, and PAGASA were
in remarkably good agreement for this cyclone, even during the early
formative stages.
Tropical Storm Eve/Rening (TC-27W / TS 9921)
15 -20 October
---------------------------------------------
The daily STWO from JTWC on 12 Oct mentioned that a broad area of
convection had developed about 250 nm east-southeast of Guam; however,
there was no evidence of any rotation. The next day the zone of
disturbed weather had moved westward and was located about 350 nm
west-southwest of the island. Deep convection persisted and there was
evidence of a possible LLCC. Also, vertical shear was low and there
was good upper-level divergence over the region; hence, the development
potential was upgraded to Fair. A synoptic analysis on the 14th
suggested that a weak LLCC was present, and by the next day, animated
visible and water vapor imagery indicated a well-defined LLCC
underneath an upper-level anticyclone with good outflow. A Formation
Alert was issued at 15/0200 UTC with the system located east of the
central Philippines by a few hundred miles.
PAGASA began issuing warnings on the system at 0000 UTC on 15 Oct,
naming it Tropical Depression Rening. Rening's broad center was
located roughly 250 nm east of the Leyte Gulf south of the island of
Samar. JTWC and JMA initiated warnings at 0600 UTC, relocating the
center farther to the west--about 130 nm east of Samar. Animated
satellite imagery depicted spiral banding around the LLCC with upper-
level divergence in a moderate vertical shear environment. Rening
was forecast to track west-northwestward within the steering flow
of a low- and mid-level ridge to the north. The depression crossed
the central Philippines on 16 Oct, but the exact path of the center
through the island archipelago isn't all that certain. There was
considerable disagreement between JTWC, PAGASA, and JMA on the center
coordinates of this system throughout its life.
JTWC tracked the center across northern Samar, Ticao, Burias Island,
the Sibuyan Sea, and across southern Luzon south of Manila. PAGASA's
track carried Rening's center across Catanduanes Island, over south-
eastern Luzon near Daet, and eventually very near Manila. JMA at
first tracked the center across Samar, but then relocated it much
farther north and subsequently tracked the center across Luzon along
the 15th parallel, just north of Manila. I received an observation
from Michael V. Padua at Naga City (13.6 N, 123.2 E) which he had made
with his own instruments on the morning of 16 Oct. At 0200 UTC PAGASA
had placed Rening's center at 14.0 N, 122.9 E, or over Daet and about
50 km north-northwest of Naga. But at 0328 UTC Michael measured
sustained winds from the east-southeast to southeast of 16-19 kts
(1-min avg) gusting to 27 kts from the southeast. The attendant
barometer reading was 999.4 mb. This strongly suggests that Rening's
center was indeed south of Naga as JTWC's track would imply.
By 16/1800 UTC the depression had emerged into the South China Sea
west of Manila. Deep convection was beginning to increase near the
center; however, dry northeasterly flow from an anticyclone over China
soon began to erode the convection, at least in the depression's
northern semicircle. Deep convection was noted south of the LLCC at
0600 UTC on the 17th, and JMA and PAGASA upgraded Rening to a tropical
storm at this time with the center being located approximately 125 nm
west-northwest of Manila. The storm moved northwestward until
0000 UTC on 18 Oct when it reached a position about 325 nm west-
northwest of Manila after which it turned to the west and later west-
southwest toward the Vietnamese coast, steered by a mid-level ridge
to the north. JMA increased the 10-min MSW to 40 kts while JTWC
kept the system as a 30-kt tropical depression. Dry, gale-force
northeasterlies generated by a high pressure cell over China impinged
on the system and prevented any significant intensification.
By 18/1800 UTC the storm was moving west-southwestward at 17 kts.
Convection had increased around the LLCC so JTWC upgraded the system
to Tropical Storm Eve. Satellite intensity estimates were 30-35 kts.
Over the next few hours the convection became even more organized near
the center so the MSW were increased to 45 kts at 19/0000 UTC--the
same as JMA's 10-min MSW estimate. According to both JTWC and JMA,
Eve's center reached the coast of Vietnam near the 15th parallel
around 19/0600 UTC, but after that there was big-time disagreement!
JTWC relocated the (supposed) weakening center northwestward just
inland where at 1200 UTC Eve was downgraded to a depression and the
final warning issued, placing the center a short distance southeast
of Hue.
JMA, however, relocated the center over 100 nm to the north of the
previous warning position--back over the South China Sea between
Vietnam and Hainan Island, and with the MSW (10-min) still at 35 kts.
JMA then subsequently tracked the storm westward and inland (again)
near Dong Hoi with the remnants moving west-northwestward into Laos.
(The author has not received any reports of damage or fatalities
due to Tropical Storm Eve/Rening.)
***********************************************************************
NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (NIO) - Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea
Activity for October: 2 tropical cyclones of hurricane intensity
NOTE: The tracking and intensity information for North Indian Ocean
Basin tropical cyclones is based primarily upon operational warnings
from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center of the U. S. Air Force and Navy
(JTWC) at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii. Occasionally some information may
be gleaned from the daily Tropical Weather Outlooks and other bulletins
issued by the Indian Meteorological Department, which is the WMO's
RSMC for the basin.
The MSW are based on a 1-min averaging period, which is used by
all U. S. civilian and military weather services for tropical cyclone
warnings. For synoptic observations in the North Indian region,
both 10-min and 3-min average winds are employed, but IMD makes no
attempt to modify the Dvorak scale for estimating tropical cyclone
intensity; hence, a 1-min avg MSW is implied. In the North Indian
basin JTWC usually does not initiate warnings until a system is
well-organized and likely to attain tropical storm status within
48 hours.
North Indian Ocean Activity for October
---------------------------------------
Two tropical cyclones formed in the Bay of Bengal during October.
Both intensified into very intense cyclones and both struck the coast
of the Indian state of Orissa. The first cyclone was destructive and
deadly enough, but the second became the deadliest tropical cyclone
of the year and one of the deadliest of the decade.
Tropical Cyclone (TC-04B)
15 - 19 October
--------------------------
An area of convection developed and persisted in the Andaman Sea,
and late on 14 Oct was located near 13.0 N, 93.2 E, or near Narcondam
Island. Animated visible and microwave imagery as well as a synoptic
analysis indicated that a LLCC had formed. Outflow was fair and
vertical shear weak to moderate. During the 15th the system began
to develop rather rapidly. JTWC issued a Formation Alert at 1700 UTC
and issued the first warning at 1800 UTC. The tropical cyclone's
intensity was estimated at 35 kts and the center was located 185 nm
northwest of the Andaman Islands or about 410 nm south-southeast of
Calcutta. The storm was forecast to track northwestward under the
influence of a subtropical ridge to the northeast.
The cyclone continued moving northwestward toward the east coast of
India. By 16/1800 UTC satellite intensity estimates were 55 kts and
77 kts; deep convection had increased and consolidated around a 10-12
nm diameter eye; outflow was good--so the MSW was increased to 65 kts.
The cyclone's center at this time was about 150 nm east of the city of
Visakhapatnam, or roughly 100 nm off the Indian coast. The next six
hours, however, saw an explosive deepening of the system. JTWC was
only issuing 12-hourly warnings on the cyclone, but a special warning
was issued at 17/0000 UTC due to the extreme intensification. The
MSW had increased dramatically to an estimated 120 kts with the center
only about 65 nm off the coast. Dvorak numbers had reached T6.5 and
the storm displayed an extremely small eye only 5 nm in diameter. The
radius of 100-kt winds was estimated to be only 15 nm with gale-force
winds extending outward 90 nm to the northeast and 60 nm elsewhere.
A TRMM overpass showed a banding feature completely surrounding the
eye with another band of strong convection located west to southwest
of the vortex.
By 0600 UTC the cyclone's center was closing in on the coast of
Orissa, still maintaining 120-kt winds. The diameter of the eye had
increased slightly to 15 nm. The cyclone made landfall around
1200 UTC near Brahmapur with the MSW estimated at 100 kts and with
gusts to 125 kts. Once inland the small tropical cyclone began to
weaken quickly as it moved northward through Orissa state. Based
primarily on information from the IMD, the weakening system moved
northward, passing well west of Cuttack, then turning northeastward.
At 19/0300 UTC the weak depression was east of Jamshedpur and moving
northeastward across the state of West Bengal
The hardest hit district by Tropical Cyclone 04B was Ganjam where
83 persons died. Other districts significantly affected by the storm
were Puri, Khurda, and Gajapathi. The total official death toll is
115 with over 1000 injured, but there are unofficial reports that over
250 persons lost their lives. Total economic losses are estimated
to have been near $470 million (20 billion rupees). Many villages
and roads were flooded, paralyzing transportation. Over 50% of the
Srikakulam district was flooded by the cyclone's rains. Approximately
460 coastal villages were affected by the storm, with 35,000 houses
damaged or destroyed and more than 700,000 persons left homeless.
Tropical Cyclone (TC-05B)
25 October - 1 November
--------------------------
An area of convection developed on 21 Oct in the Sulu Sea, southeast
of the Philippine island of Palawan. Animated infrared satellite
imagery indicated that convection was increasing and that a LLCC
might be forming; however, moderate wind shear and weak outflow were
inhibiting development at the time. Over the next couple of days
the disturbance drifted westward out into the South China Sea.
Convection increased and vertical shear decreased, so the development
potential of the system was upgraded to Fair by JTWC. At 23/0200 UTC
a Formation Alert was issued for the disturbance. The LOW continued
to move westward, passing just south of the extreme southern tip of
Vietnam, and into the Gulf of Thailand. By late on the 23rd convection
had decreased due to increasing vertical shear and interaction with
land, so the Alert was cancelled.
The weak disturbance subsequently continued on westward, having
crossed the Malay Peninsula and entered the Andaman Sea by 0300 UTC on
25 Oct. Although vertical shear was still moderate, convection began
to increase once more and the system had developed a fair outflow.
During the 25th convective organization improved with a strong rainband
wrapping into the LLCC from the north, and surface pressures began to
slowly fall. Another Formation Alert was issued at 1900 UTC and the
first warning, classifying the system as a 35-kt tropical cyclone, was
issued at 26/0000 UTC. The newly born cyclone was centered about
175 nm south-southwest of Yangan (Rangoon), Myanmar. A subtropical
ridge to the northeast steered the storm on a west-northwesterly course
toward the east coast of India. By 27/0000 UTC the MSW estimate had
reached 60 kts. The cyclone was almost directly under a 200-mb ridge
axis and had excellent outflow.
The storm began to intensify more rapidly as the 27th progressed.
By 1200 UTC winds had reached 90 kts with the center about 350 nm
south-southwest of Chittagong, Bangladesh. Dvorak T-numbers had
reached T6.5/T7.0 by 28/1200 UTC and the MSW was increased to 135 kts.
The cyclone reached its peak intensity at 0000 UTC on 29 Oct when JTWC
estimate the MSW to be 140 kts. The radius of 100-kt winds was
estimated to be 20 nm while gale-force winds extended outward 130 nm
to the northeast and 100 nm elsewhere. The storm's center was then
located about 75 nm southeast of Cuttack, India. There have been only
two other tropical cyclones in recent years to reach this intensity
in the Bay of Bengal. One was a cyclone in May, 1991, which caused
many thousands of deaths in Bangladesh. The other was Typhoon Gay
in November, 1989, which crossed the Malay Peninsula at full typhoon
strength and later struck the east coast of India at peak intensity.
Tropical Cyclone 05B made landfall near 0600 UTC on 29 Oct southeast
of Cuttack, between Puri and Kendrapara. However, instead of moving
well inland as forecast, the cyclone stalled near the coastal region.
At 30/0000 UTC the center had been quasi-stationary near Jajpur for
twelve hours. Significant dry-air advection had caused the
convection to weaken with cloud top temperatures having warmed 20
degrees C over a 12-hour period. The next couple of days saw the
weakening cyclone drift very slowly southward along the coastal zone.
Winds were down to 45 kts by 30/1200 UTC and continued to slowly
diminish. The system was caught in weak steering flow between two
mid-level anticyclones. Deep convection was confined to a band north-
east of the center. The storm was advecting in dry air from over
India but was still maintaining a strong low-level cyclonic inflow.
JTWC downgraded the cyclone to a 30-kt depression at 0000 UTC on
1 Nov and issued the final warning, placing the weakening center
offshore about 60 nm south of Puri. A residual low-pressure area
remained in the area for a few more days.
Tropical Cyclone 05B was the most severe cyclone to affect Orissa
since 1971. Districts that were hard hit include Ganjam, Kendrapara,
Jagatsinghpur, Puri, Bhubaneshwar, Bhadrak, Balasore, Cuttack, and
Jajpur. The storm generated a 7-m tidal surge which swept 20 km
inland in some places. Together the two cyclones effectively wiped
out all crops along a 140-km stretch of coastline. Heavy rains
continued in the area for days. The damage caused by Tropical
Cyclone 05B was not confined to India--in Myanmar flooding caused by
heavy cyclone-related rains left 20,000 homeless and there were 10
deaths reported there.
The current official death toll in India stands at 9885 with 8119
of these occurring in Jagatsinghpur district, but there are unofficial
estimates that as many as 30,000 persons may have lost their lives.
The total damage from the cyclone is estimated to have exceeded
$1.5 billion (67 billion rupees). Nearly 2 million houses were
damaged or destroyed and over 1.8 million hectares of agricultural
land was devastated by the storm. Heavy rains washed industrial
chemicals into bathing ponds, and relief workers reported that
thousands of people had suffered chemical burns. In the coastal town
of Paradwip where the cyclone's center made landfall, almost every
house was completely destroyed by the storm surge.
There were thousands of farm animals and livestock destroyed by
the storm. Some totals include: buffaloes - 8238; sheep - 78,104;
goats - 78,728; calves - 10,381; chickens - over 1 million. Other
problems which are always to be encountered following a disaster of
this magnitude are polluted drinking water, looting, disease and
rotting carcasses (both animal and human), and shortages of food,
clothing, and medical supplies. Much more information about the
aftermath of these two destructive Indian cyclones can be found at
the following website: http://wwwnotes.reliefweb.int/>. Click
on the "Natural Disasters" link.
***********************************************************************
SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN (SIO) - South Indian Ocean West of Longitude 90E
Activity for October: No tropical cyclones
***********************************************************************
AUSTRALIAN REGION (AUG) - From Longitude 90E Eastward to Longitude 160E
Activity for October: No tropical cyclones
***********************************************************************
SOUTHWEST PACIFIC (SWP) - South Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 160E
Activity for October: No tropical cyclones
Southwest Pacific Activity for October
--------------------------------------
There were no tropical cyclones in the Southwest Pacific basin
during October, but the author did receive one gale warning from Fiji
on a system that was referred to as a tropical depression. The system
was centered near 27.0 S, 156.0 W at 1800 UTC on 21 Oct, moving to the
southeast at 10 kts. The warning indicated that winds of 30-35 kts
might be experienced in association with the LOW. Considering the
latitude and time of year, it is highly likely that this system was
not a true tropical depression but rather a hybrid or subtropical
LOW. No track is given for this system in the accompanying cyclone
tracks file document.
***********************************************************************
EXTRA FEATURE
In order to shorten the amount of typing in preparing the narrative
material, I have been in the habit of freely using abbreviations and
acronyms. I have tried to define most of these with the first usage
in a given summary, but I may have missed one now and then. Most of
these are probably understood by a majority of readers but perhaps a
few aren't clear to some. To remedy this I developed a Glossary of
Abbreviations and Acronyms which I included in the July, 1998 summary.
I will include this glossary from time to time, primarily in "lean"
months without a lot of tropical cyclone activity to cover. But if
anyone missed receiving it and wishes to obtain a copy, send me an
e-mail privately and I'll forward them a copy.
***********************************************************************
AUTHOR'S NOTE: This summary should be considered a very preliminary
overview of the tropical cyclones that occur in each month. The cyclone
tracks (provided separately) will generally be based upon operational
warnings issued by the various tropical cyclone warning centers. The
information contained therein may differ somewhat from the tracking and
intensity information obtained from a "best-track" file which is based
on a detailed post-seasonal analysis of all available data. Information
on where to find official "best-track" files from the various warning
centers will be passed along from time to time.
The track files are not being sent via e-mail. They can be retrieved
in the following manner:
(a) FTP to: hrd-type42.nhc.noaa.gov [140.90.176.206]
(b) Login as: anonymous
(c) For a password use your e-mail address
(d) Go to "data" subdirectory (Type: cd data)
(e) Set file type to ASCII (Type: ascii)
(f) Transfer file (Type: get remote_file_name local_file_name )
(The files will be named with an obvious nomenclature--using
October as an example: oct99.tracks)
(g) To exit FTP, type: quit
Both the summaries and the track files are standard text files
created in DOS editor. Download to disk and use a viewer such as
Notepad or DOS editor to view the files.
The first summary in this series covered the month of October,
1997. If anyone wishes to retrieve any of the previous summaries,
they may be downloaded from the aforementioned FTP site at HRD. The
summary files are catalogued with the nomenclature: oct99.sum, for
example.
Back issues can also be obtained from the following websites
(courtesy of Michael Bath, Michael V. Padua, Tom Berg, Michael
Pitt, and Rich Henning):
http://australiansevereweather.com/cyclones/>
http://www.geocities.com/capecanaveral/6825>
http://www.hcane.com/tropcl.html>
http://www.qisfl.net/home/hurricanemike>
http://www.met.fsu.edu/gsc/Docs/Grads/henning/cyclones/>
Another website where much information about tropical cyclones may
be found is the website for the UK Meteorological Office. Their site
contains a lot of statistical information about tropical cyclones
globally on a monthly basis. The URL is:
http://www.met-office.gov.uk/sec2/sec2cyclone/sec2cyclone.html>
TROPICAL CYCLONE REPORTS AVAILABLE
JTWC now has available on its new website the completed Annual
Tropical Cyclone Report for 1998. Also, reports for each year from
1959 through 1997 are available in Adobe Acrobat format.
The URL is: http://199.10.200.33/jtwc.html>
TPC/NHC has available on its webpage nice "technicolor" tracking
charts for the 1998 Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific tropical
cyclones, and preliminary storm reports for all the 1998 Atlantic
and Eastern North Pacific cyclones are now available. Also, a few
preliminary reports for some of the 1999 tropical cyclones are
already available.
The URL is: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/1998.html>
Prepared by: Gary Padgett
E-mail: [email protected]
Phone: 334-222-5327 (nights & weekends) / 850-882-2594 (weekdays)
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Document: summ9910.htm
Updated: 4th January 2007 |
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