[Index]
Tropical Cyclone STEVE
[Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere][Summaries and Track Data]
| Tropical
Cyclones
[Index] |
Tropical Cyclone STEVE [Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere][Summaries and Track Data] |
WTPS22 PGTW 20000226 01:00z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 260051Z FEB 00//
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
2. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
3. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 200 NM RADIUS OF 16.4S1 1.9E3 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 20 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 262230Z5 INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 16.0S7 150.2E8. THE SYSTEM IS
QUASI-STATIONARY.
4. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION HAS REMAINED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM
EAST OF THE CAPE YORK PENINSULA IN THE CORAL SEA. SCATTEROMETER DATA
INDICATES A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCREASING CONVECTION. ANIMATED VISIBLE IMAGERY
REVEALS CONVECTION DEVELOPING INTO BANDING FEATURES AROUND THE LLCC.
252100Z0 SYNOPTIC DATA ALSO REFLECTS THE LLCC ALONG WITH FALLING
SURFACE PRESSURES. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS WEAK TO
MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION WITH FAIR OUTFLOW ALOFT.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS NOW GOOD.
5. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 270100Z0.
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20000226 21:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
261800Z7 --- NEAR 16.6S3 147.5E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S3 147.5E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z5 --- 16.8S5 145.7E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
040 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z8 --- 16.8S5 143.8E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z6 --- 16.7S4 142.0E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
262100Z1 POSITION NEAR 16.6S3 147.0E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14P HAS DEVELOPED IN THE WESTERN CORAL SEA AND
TRACKED TOWARDS THE WEST AT 09 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 261730Z9 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 261800Z7
SURFACE SYNOPTIC DATA. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON SYNOPTIC
OBSERVATIONS OF 32 KNOTS (10 MINUTE AVERAGE) AND SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES
CONTINUED ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM DURING THE PAST 18 HOURS WITH
CONVECTION RECENTLY BUILDING OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). SURFACE PRESSURES HAVE CONTINUED TO FALL BELOW 1000 MB AND
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS CLOSE TO THE LLCC REMAIN NEAR 30 KNOTS (10
MINUTE AVERAGE). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS GOOD OUTFLOW
ALOFT, ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH, AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ACROSS
THE REGION. TC 14P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING TOWARDS THE WEST
WITHIN THE STEERING FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, AROUND
THE 12 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. TC 14P MAY INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY BEFORE
MOVING ONSHORE AND SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY THE END OF THE 36
HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261800Z7 IS
10 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS NAVPACMETOCCEN 260051Z
FEB 00 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS22 PGTW 260100). NEXT
WARNINGS AT 270900Z8 (DTG 270751Z2) AND 272100Z2 (DTG 271951Z5) BY
THE ALTERNATE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER, YOKOSUKA, JAPAN (DSN
315-243-8872). REFER TO TYPHOON KIM (13P) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PHNC) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20000227 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (STEVE) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
270600Z5 --- NEAR 16.7S4 146.3E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
035 NM WEST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 16.7S4 146.3E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z8 --- 16.8S5 144.7E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z6 --- 16.9S6 142.9E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z9 --- 17.0S8 141.3E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
270900Z8 POSITION NEAR 16.7S4 145.9E9. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P
(STEVE) HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS FOR THE PAST
12 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND COASTAL RADAR DATA. INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35-40 KNOTS AND SYNOPTIC
DATA. MULTI-SPECTRAL IMAGERY INDICATES BANDED DEEP CONVECTION IS
ISOLATED TO THE EAST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AS THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH LAND. TC 14P IS FORECAST TO MOVE
WESTWARD AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE OVER LAND WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 272100Z2 (DTG 271951Z5) AND 280900Z9 (DTG
280751Z3). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (KIM) WARNINGS (WTXS31
PHNC) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. THIS IS A PRODUCT OF THE
ALTERNATE AJTWC, YOKOSUKA, JAPAN. QUESTIONS SHOULD BE DIRECTED TO
THE TYPHOON DUTY OFFICER AT NPMOC YOKOSUKA JAPAN (DSN 243-
8872).//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20000227 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (STEVE) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z8 --- NEAR 16.5S2 143.2E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S2 143.2E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z6 --- 16.4S1 141.0E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z9 --- 16.4S1 139.0E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z7 --- 16.2S9 137.8E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 035 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z0 --- 15.6S2 136.9E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
272100Z2 POSITION NEAR 16.5S2 142.7E4. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS 10 FEET. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (STEVE)IS
INLAND OVER THE CAPE YORK PENINSULA AND CONTINUES TO TRACK
WESTWARD. A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD MOTION AND A SLIGHT TURN
TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED AFTER 24 HOURS DUE TO WEAKENING
STEERING FLOW AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS TO THE
SOUTHEAST. TC 14P IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS IT ENTERS
THE WARMER WATERS OF THE GULF OF CARPENTERIA AND THE UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW SLOWLY INCREASES. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280900Z9 (DTG
280751Z3) AND 282100Z (DTG 271951Z). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
13P (KIM) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PHNC) FOR TWELVE HOURLY UPDATES. THIS
IS A PRODUCT OF THE ALTERNATE AJTWC, YOKOSUKA, JAPAN. QUESTIONS
SHOULD BE DIRECTED TO THE TYPHOON DUTY OFFICER AT NPMOC YOKOSUKA
JAPAN (DSN 243-8872).//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20000228 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (STEVE) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z6 --- NEAR 18.2S1 141.1E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S1 141.1E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z9 --- 18.9S8 138.6E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
280900Z9 POSITION NEAR 18.4S3 140.5E0. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (STEVE) IS
INLAND OVER NORTHERN QUEENSLAND AND HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS UNDER THE STEERING FLOW OF THE STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A
BROADENING EXPOSED WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DECREASING
CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM IS DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
OVER LAND. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE ALTERNATE
JOINT TYPHOON CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN YOKOSUKA JAPAN). THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
THIS IS A PRODUCT OF THE ALTERNATE AJTWC, YOKOSUKA, JAPAN. QUESTIONS
SHOULD BE DIRECTED TO THE TYPHOON DUTY OFFICER AT NPMOC YOKOSUKA
JAPAN (DSN 243-8872).//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20000228 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (STEVE) WARNING NR 005
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
281800Z9 --- NEAR 16.9S6 139.7E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S6 139.7E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z7 --- 16.2S9 138.1E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
035 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z0 --- 15.7S3 136.9E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
055 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z7 --- 15.5S1 136.0E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z0 --- 15.6S2 135.1E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
282100Z3 POSITION NEAR 16.7S4 139.3E6. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P
REGENERATED AS IT MOVED INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
GULF OF CARPENTARIA JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF MORNINGTON
ISLAND. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THIS SYSTEM IS 995 MB. A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD MOTION AS THE SYSTEM PARALLELS
THE COASTLINE. TC 14P IS EXPECTED SLOWLY INTENSIFY IN 24
HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW SLOWLY INCREASES. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z9 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 290900Z0 (DTG 290751Z4) AND 292100Z4 (DTG 291951Z7).
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (KIM) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. THIS IS
A PRODUCT OF THE ALTERNATE JTWC, YOKOSUKA, JAPAN. QUESTIONS
SHOULD BE DIRECTED TO THE TYPHOON DUTY OFFICER AT NPMOC
YOKOSUKA (DSN 243-8872).//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20000229 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (STEVE) WARNING NR 006
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
290600Z7 --- NEAR 16.4S1 138.8E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4S1 138.8E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z0 --- 16.2S9 137.8E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z7 --- 15.9S5 136.7E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z0 --- 15.8S4 135.6E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z8 --- 15.8S4 134.6E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
---
REMARKS:
290900Z0 POSITION NEAR 16.4S1 138.5E7. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS 12 FEET. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P HAS MOVED SLOWLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA. THE INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS AND
SYNOPTIC DATA. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP CONVECTION
IS INCREASING AS THE SYSTEM HEADS SLOWLY WEST IN A WEAK SHEER
ENVIRONMENT. THE FORECAST TRACK REFLECTS THE GOOD AGREEMENT OF MOST
OBJECTIVE AIDS. TC 14P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SLOWLY WESTWARD AND
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER LAND. THIS IS A PRODUCT OF THE ALTERNATE
AJTWC, YOKOSUKA, JAPAN. QUESTIONS SHOULD BE DIRECTED TO THE TYPHOON
DUTY OFFICER AT NPMOC YOKOSUKA (DSN 243-8872). NEXT WARNINGS AT
292100Z4 (DTG 291951Z7) AND 010900Z0 (DTG 010751Z4). REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (KIM) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (NONAME)
WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20000229 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (STEVE) WARNING NR 007
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
291800Z0 --- NEAR 15.1S7 137.3E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
REPEAT POSIT: 15.1S7 137.3E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z7 --- 14.5S0 136.1E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
070 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z0 --- 14.2S7 135.4E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
040 NM WEST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z8 --- 14.1S6 134.4E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z1 --- 14.1S6 133.4E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
292100Z4 POSITION NEAR 14.9S4 137.0E1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P
(STEVE) CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWEST OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF
OF CARPENTERIA. TC 14P IS OVER OPEN WATER WITH HIGH SSTS AND
THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS GOOD TO EXCELLENT IN ALL QUADRANTS.
TC 14P IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INTENSIFY OUT TO 12 HOURS AND
JUST BEFORE LANDFALL AND THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AT 24 HOURS AS
THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH LAND AND CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE
THROUGH 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z
IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z0 (DTG 010751Z4) AND
012100Z4 (DTG 011951Z7). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (KIM)
WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (STEVE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. THIS IS A PRODUCT OF THE ALTERNATE
JTWC, YOKOSUKA, JAPAN. QUESTIONS SHOULD BE DIRECTED TO THE
TYPHOON DUTY OFFICER AT NPMOC YOKOSUKA (DSN 243-8872).//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20000301 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (STEVE) WARNING NR 008
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
010600Z7 --- NEAR 15.4S0 135.1E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4S0 135.1E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z0 --- 15.2S8 134.0E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
010900Z0 POSITION NEAR 15.4S0 134.8E6. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (STEVE)
HAS MOVED INLAND OVER THE NORTHERN TERRITORY OF AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND COASTAL RADAR INDICATES CONVECTION HAS
DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY AS TC 14P INTERACTS WITH LAND. TC 14P IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE WESTWARD AND DISSIPATE OVER LAND WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
ALTERNATE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN YOKOSUKA
JAPAN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. THIS IS A PRODUCT OF THE ALTERNATE AJTWC, YOKOSUKA,
JAPAN. QUESTIONS SHOULD BE DIRECTED TO THE TYPHOON DUTY OFFICER AT
NPMOC YOKOSUKA (DSN 243-8872).
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (KIM) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (NONAME)
WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
FORECAST TEAM: DWINELLS/SWATZELL/WORKMAN//
=========================================================================
WTXS35 PGTW 20000302 21:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (STEVE) WARNING NR 009
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z1 --- NEAR 14.6S1 130.4E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6S1 130.4E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z9 --- 14.4S9 128.7E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z2 --- 14.4S9 126.8E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z0 --- 14.8S3 124.7E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z3 --- 15.4S0 122.7E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 16.2S9 118.3E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
022100Z5 POSITION NEAR 14.5S0 130.0E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (STEVE) IS FORECAST TO REGENERATE AS THE SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE SHORE OF NORTHERN AUSTRALIA, APPROXIMATELY 130 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DARWIN. THE SYSTEM HAS TRACKED TOWARDS THE WEST-
NORTHWEST AT 08 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION
IS BASED ON 021730Z3 INFRARED IMAGERY, SURFACE SYNOPTIC AND RADAR
DATA. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SURFACE SYNOPTIC REPORTS AND
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS. TC 14P (STEVE) IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND
GRADUALLY TURN TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE BROAD RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
SLOWLY INTENSIFY DURING THE INITIAL 36 HOURS AS INCREASING MOISTURE
IS PULLED INTO THE SYSTEM. TC 14P (STEVE) IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
INTENSIFYING AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER
OFFSHORE AFTER THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z1 IS 10 FEET. CURRENTLY, WARNINGS WILL BE
ISSUED AT 6-HOURLY INTERVALS UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. NEXT WARNINGS AT
030300Z6 (DTG 030151Z0), 030900Z2 (DTG 030751Z6), 031500Z9 (DTG
031351Z3) AND 032100Z6 (DTG 031951Z9). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S
(GLORIA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (NORMAN) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS35 PGTW 20000303 03:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (STEVE) WARNING NR 010
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z3 --- NEAR 14.8S3 129.7E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S3 129.7E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z6 --- 15.4S0 128.2E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z4 --- 16.2S9 126.3E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z7 --- 16.9S6 124.3E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z5 --- 17.4S2 122.3E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z6 --- 18.1S0 117.8E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
030300Z6 POSITION NEAR 14.9S4 129.3E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (STEVE) IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY REGENERATE AS THE
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE SHORE OF NORTHERN AUSTRALIA, APPROXIMATELY 140
NM SOUTHWEST OF DARWIN. THE SYSTEM HAS TRACKED TOWARDS THE WEST AT
08 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
022330Z0 VISIBLE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SURFACE
SYNOPTIC REPORTS AND SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25
KNOTS. THE GENERAL PHILOSOPHY OF THIS FORECAST REMAINS THE SAME AS
WITH THE PREVIOUS WARNING. TC 14P (STEVE) IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TRACKING WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE INITIAL 48 HOURS. AS
THE SYSTEM SKIRTS THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF AUSTRALIA, ABUNDANT
MOISTURE INFLOW IS FORECAST TO ALLOW TC 14P (STEVE) TO REMAIN INTACT
AND EVEN SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY. ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER OPEN WATER
AROUND THE 48 HOUR PERIOD, TC 14P (STEVE) IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO
RE-INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AS IT TRACKS FURTHER OFFSHORE.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z3 IS 10 FEET. CURRENTLY,
WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED AT 6-HOURLY INTERVALS UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z2 (DTG 030751Z6), 031500Z9 (DTG 031351Z3),
032100Z6 (DTG 031951Z9) AND 040300Z7 (DTG 040151Z1). REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GLORIA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (NORMAN) WARNINGS (WTXS32
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S
WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS35 PGTW 20000303 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (STEVE) WARNING NR 011
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z9 --- NEAR 15.6S2 128.3E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S2 128.3E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z2 --- 16.6S3 126.3E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z0 --- 17.4S2 124.3E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z3 --- 18.0S9 122.5E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 18.3S2 120.6E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 18.4S3 116.6E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
030900Z2 POSITION NEAR 15.9S5 127.8E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14P (STEVE), LOCATED ABOUT 180 NM SOUTHWEST OF
DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED OVER LAND TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST
AT 13 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 030530Z1 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SURFACE SYNOPTIC REPORTS AND SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 30 KNOTS. TC 14P (STEVE) IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE
OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH DURING THE INITIAL 36 HOURS.
AFTER THE 36 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD, TC 14P (STEVE) IS FORECAST TO
TRACK MORE WESTWARD AS THE RIDGE BUILDS SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD. WHILE
THE SYSTEM MOVES NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF AUSTRALIA, ABUNDANT
MOISTURE INFLOW IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW TC 14P (STEVE) TO REMAIN INTACT
AND EVEN SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY BEFORE MOVING OVER WATER NEAR THE 36
HOUR FORECAST TIME. ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER OPEN WATER, IT IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO RE-INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AS IT
TRACKS FURTHER OFFSHORE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z9
IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 031500Z9 (DTG 031351Z3), 032100Z6 (DTG
031951Z9), 040300Z7 (DTG 040151Z1) AND 040900Z3 (DTG 040751Z7).
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GLORIA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (NORMAN) WARNINGS
(WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
17S WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS35 PGTW 20000303 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (STEVE) WARNING NR 012
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z6 --- NEAR 16.3S0 127.3E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S0 127.3E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z4 --- 17.5S3 125.2E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z7 --- 18.3S2 123.0E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z5 --- 18.5S4 120.6E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z8 --- 18.6S5 118.2E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z9 --- 19.2S2 114.1E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
031500Z9 POSITION NEAR 16.6S3 126.8E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14P (STEVE), LOCATED ABOUT 200 NM EAST OF
YAMPI SOUND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED OVER LAND TOWARDS THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST AT 13 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION
IS BASED ON 031130Z8 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SURFACE SYNOPTIC REPORTS AND
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 30 KNOTS. TC 14P
(STEVE) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH DURING
THE INITIAL 24 HOURS. AFTER THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD, TC 14P
(STEVE) IS FORECAST TO TRACK MORE WESTWARD AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD. WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN
COAST OF AUSTRALIA, ABUNDANT MOISTURE INFLOW IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW TC
14P (STEVE) TO REMAIN INTACT AND EVEN SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY BEFORE
MOVING OVER WATER BEFORE THE 36 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. ONCE THE
SYSTEM MOVES OVER OPEN WATER, IT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO RE-
INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AS IT TRACKS FURTHER OFFSHORE.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z6 IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 032100Z6 (DTG 031951Z9), 040300Z7 (DTG 040151Z1),
040900Z3 (DTG 040751Z7) AND 041500Z0 (DTG 041351Z4). REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GLORIA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (NORMAN) WARNINGS (WTXS32
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S
WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS35 PGTW 20000303 21:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (STEVE) WARNING NR 013
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z2 --- NEAR 16.2S9 126.5E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S9 126.5E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z0 --- 16.6S3 124.4E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z3 --- 17.0S8 122.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 17.1S9 120.0E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 17.2S0 117.6E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
010 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 18.0S9 113.0E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
032100Z6 POSITION NEAR 16.3S0 126.0E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14P (STEVE), LOCATED ABOUT 175 NM EAST OF
YAMPI SOUND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
KIMBERLEY, AUSTRALIA DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION
IS BASED ON 031730Z4 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SURFACE SYNOPTIC REPORTS AND
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 30 KNOTS. THE
WARNING INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO REFLECT CURRENT SYNOPTIC
REPORTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THAT DEEP
CONVECTION HAS REMAINED NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. IT
APPEARS THAT THE INFLOW OF MOISTURE FROM THE TIMOR SEA HAS HELPED TO
KEEP THE SYSTEM INTACT. A MID-LEVEL HIGH SITUATED OVER SOUTHWEST
AUSTRALIA IS EXPECTED TO BUILD NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS
CAUSING TC 14P (STEVE) TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER OPEN WATER, IT IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 031800Z2 IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040300Z7 (DTG 040151Z1),
040900Z3 (DTG 040751Z7), 041500Z0 (DTG 041351Z4) AND 042100Z7 (DTG
041951Z0). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GLORIA) WARNINGS (WTXS31
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S
(NORMAN) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
=========================================================================
WTXS35 PGTW 20000304 03:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (STEVE) WARNING NR 014
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
040000Z4 --- NEAR 16.7S4 124.9E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.7S4 124.9E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z7 --- 17.2S0 123.2E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z5 --- 17.5S3 121.5E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z8 --- 17.8S6 119.8E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z6 --- 18.1S0 118.3E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
010 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z7 --- 19.1S1 115.1E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
040300Z7 POSITION NEAR 16.8S5 124.5E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14P (STEVE), LOCATED ABOUT 85 NM EAST OF
YAMPI SOUND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER KIMBERLEY, AUSTRALIA DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 032330Z1 INFRARED AND MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SURFACE
SYNOPTIC REPORTS AND SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND
30 KNOTS. ANIMATED IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT DISORGANIZED YET
PERSISTENT CONVECTION SHIELDING KIMBERLEY, AUSTRALIA. SYNOPTIC DATA
INDICATES AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. THE DEEP CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE
SITUATED JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC. 200 MB ANALYSIS REVEALS WEAK
MID-LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING OVER THE REGION. A MID-LEVEL HIGH
SITUATED OVER SOUTHWEST AUSTRALIA IS EXPECTED TO BUILD NORTHWARD
OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS CAUSING TC 14P (STEVE) TO TRACK
GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE
COAST, TC 14P (STEVE) SHOULD INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z4 IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 040900Z3 (DTG 040751Z7), 041500Z0 (DTG 041351Z4),
042100Z7 (DTG 041951Z0) AND 050300Z8 (DTG 050151Z2). REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GLORIA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (NORMAN) WARNINGS (WTXS32
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S
WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS35 PGTW 20000304 09:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (STEVE) WARNING NR 015
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z0 --- NEAR 16.9S6 123.8E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S6 123.8E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z3 --- 17.1S9 122.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 17.4S2 120.6E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 17.7S5 119.0E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
010 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 18.2S1 117.1E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 20.0S2 112.8E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
040900Z3 POSITION NEAR 17.0S8 123.4E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14P (STEVE), LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN YAMPI
SOUND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 040530Z2 MULTI-SPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY, SYNOPTIC DATA, AND RADAR DATA. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SURFACE SYNOPTIC REPORTS AND SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED IMAGERY DEPICTS
DISORGANIZED WEAK CONVECTION OVER LAND WITH STRONGER CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH A CONVECTIVE BAND WEST THROUGH NORTH OF THE LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). SYNOPTIC DATA SUGGESTS A MORE
SYMMETRIC LLCC WITH STRONGER WINDS OF 30-35 KNOTS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTIVE BAND. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS REVEALS WEAK
RIDGING EXTENDING OVER THE REGION. UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT
TC 14P (STEVE) IS UNDER WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 14P (STEVE) IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTHWEST
AUSTRALIA. TC 14P IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY UNTIL IT MOVES
OVER WATER IN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE
COAST, TC 14P (STEVE) SHOULD INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE
WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
040600Z0 IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 041500Z0 (DTG 041351Z4),
042100Z7 (DTG 041951Z0), 050300Z8 (DTG 050151Z2) AND 050900Z4 (DTG
050751Z8). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GLORIA) WARNINGS (WTXS31
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S
(NORMAN) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS35 PGTW 20000304 15:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (STEVE) WARNING NR 016
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z7 --- NEAR 17.3S1 122.6E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3S1 122.6E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z5 --- 17.7S5 120.7E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z8 --- 18.3S2 118.6E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z6 --- 19.1S1 116.3E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
010 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z9 --- 20.0S2 114.0E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z0 --- 22.7S1 109.9E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
041500Z0 POSITION NEAR 17.4S2 122.1E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14P (STEVE), LOCATED OVER CENTRAL DAMPIER
LAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS DURING
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 041130Z9 INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY, SYNOPTIC DATA, AND RADAR DATA. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SURFACE SYNOPTIC REPORTS AND SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY
DEPICTS IMPROVING ORGANIZATION AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING EAST AND SOUTH OF THE
LLCC. ANIMATED RADAR DATA FROM THE BROOME, AUSTRALIA RADAR SHOWS A
DEFINITE ROTATION NORTHEAST OF BROOME. SYNOPTIC DATA ALSO INDICATES
THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL DAMPIER LAND WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS NORTH OF THE LLCC ASSOCIATED WITH A CONVECTION BAND.
THE 040951Z9 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER PASS DEPICTS NEW
CONVECTION OVER LAND SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC WITH INCREASING SPIRAL
CURVATURE IN THE CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE NORTHWEST. THE 200 MB
ANALYSIS REVEALS WEAK RIDGING EXTENDING OVER THE REGION. UW-CIMSS
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 14P (STEVE) IS UNDER WEAK VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. TC 14P (STEVE) IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER
SOUTHWEST AUSTRALIA. TC 14P IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY UNTIL
IT MOVES OVER WATER IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF
THE COAST, TC 14P (STEVE) SHOULD INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE
WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
041200Z7 IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 042100Z7 (DTG 041951Z0),
050300Z8 (DTG 050151Z2), 050900Z4 (DTG 050751Z8) AND 051500Z1 (DTG
051351Z5). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GLORIA) WARNINGS (WTXS31
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (NORMAN)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 17S (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS35 PGTW 20000304 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (STEVE) WARNING NR 017
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z3 --- NEAR 17.4S2 122.2E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.4S2 122.2E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 18.0S9 120.1E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 18.7S6 118.2E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
010 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 19.2S2 115.8E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 20.2S4 113.5E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 22.9S3 109.4E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
042100Z7 POSITION NEAR 17.6S4 121.7E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14P (STEVE), LOCATED OVER THE DAMPIER LAND
COAST, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 5 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 041730Z5 INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY, SYNOPTIC DATA, AND RADAR DATA. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SURFACE SYNOPTIC REPORTS AND SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 30 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY AND RECENT
BROOME, AUSTRALIA RADAR LOOP INDICATE CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. MODERATE/HEAVY PRECIPITATION EXTENDS FROM
PENDER BAY SOUTHEAST TO DERBY THEN SOUTHWEST ACROSS DAMPIER LAND TO
THE COAST NEAR BROOME. MID-LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN
AUSTRALIA IS FORECAST TO BUILD NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS,
EAST OF TC 14P. THIS WILL CAUSE TC 14P (STEVE) TO TAKE A MORE
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. TC 14P SHOULD BEGIN TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES
OFF THE COAST OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS. TC 14P (STEVE) SHOULD INTENSIFY
AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z3
IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050300Z8 (DTG 050151Z2), 050900Z4 (DTG
050751Z8), 051500Z1 (DTG 051351Z5) AND 052100Z8 (DTG 051951Z1).
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GLORIA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (NORMAN) WARNINGS
(WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
17S (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS35 PGTW 20000305 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (STEVE) WARNING NR 018
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z5 --- NEAR 17.9S7 121.3E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9S7 121.3E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z8 --- 18.6S5 119.0E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z6 --- 19.1S1 116.8E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z9 --- 19.9S9 114.3E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z7 --- 21.2S5 111.9E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z8 --- 23.6S1 108.7E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
050300Z8 POSITION NEAR 18.1S0 120.7E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14P (STEVE), LOCATED ABOUT 50 NM NORTHWEST OF
BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS DURING
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 042330Z2 INFRARED
AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY, SYNOPTIC DATA, AND RADAR DATA. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SURFACE SYNOPTIC REPORTS AND SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED MULTI-
SPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION AND INCREASE IN
AREAL COVERAGE AS TC 14P CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE
DAMPIER LAND COAST. BROOME, AUSTRALIA RADAR LOOP INDICATES HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION IS CONFINED TO THE ROEBUCK PLAINS JUST SOUTHEAST
OF BROOME. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN AUSTRALIA IS
FORECAST TO BUILD NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS, EAST OF TC 14P.
THIS WILL CAUSE TC 14P (STEVE) TO TAKE A MORE SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK.
TC 14P SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM
THE COAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z5 IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z4 (DTG 050751Z8), 051500Z1 (DTG 051351Z5),
052100Z8 (DTG 051951Z1) AND 060300Z9 (DTG 060151Z3). REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GLORIA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (NORMAN) WARNINGS (WTXS32
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S
(NONAME) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR FINAL WARNING.//
=========================================================================
WTXS35 PGTW 20000305 09:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (STEVE) WARNING NR 019
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z1 --- NEAR 18.5S4 119.9E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 18.5S4 119.9E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 19.2S2 117.8E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 19.9S9 115.7E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
080 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 20.8S0 113.7E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
090 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 21.8S1 112.0E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
100 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 24.5S1 110.4E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
050900Z4 POSITION NEAR 18.7S6 119.4E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14P (STEVE), LOCATED ABOUT 130 NM NORTHEAST OF
PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 050530Z3
INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY, SYNOPTIC DATA, AND RADAR
DATA. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SURFACE SYNOPTIC REPORTS AND
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED
MULTI-SPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION WITH DEEP
CONVECTION NORTHWEST AND SOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS IMPROVED OUTFLOW OVER THE
SYSTEM. THE PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA RADAR LOOP INDICATES HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION IS CONFINED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST OF THE LLCC. TC 14P
(STEVE) IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH 48 HOURS
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED OVER
SOUTHERN AUSTRALIA. TC 14P WILL GRADUALLY TRACK MORE SOUTHWESTWARD
AFTER THE 48-HOUR POINT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS EAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC
14P SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE DUE
TO A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
050600Z1 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 051500Z1 (DTG 051351Z5),
052100Z8 (DTG 051951Z1), 060300Z9 (DTG 060151Z3) AND 060900Z5 (DTG
060751Z9). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GLORIA) WARNINGS (WTXS31
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (NORMAN)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 17S (NONAME) WARNING (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR FOR ITS FINAL
WARNING.//
=========================================================================
WTXS35 PGTW 20000305 15:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (STEVE) WARNING NR 020
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z8 --- NEAR 19.1S1 119.2E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
055 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 19.1S1 119.2E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z6 --- 19.7S7 117.5E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
070 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z9 --- 20.1S3 115.8E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
090 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z7 --- 20.6S8 114.0E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
100 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z0 --- 21.4S7 112.4E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
105 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z1 --- 23.5S0 110.2E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
051500Z1 POSITION NEAR 19.3S3 118.8E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14P (STEVE), LOCATED ABOUT 80 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 051130Z0 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY, SYNOPTIC DATA, AND RADAR
DATA. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 45 AND 55 KNOTS AND SYNOPTIC SURFACE DATA. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED
TO ORGANIZE AND WRAP AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS IMPROVING
OUTFLOW OVER THE SYSTEM. UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT AN UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP OVER THE LLCC. IT ALSO SHOWS THAT
TC 14P IS UNDER WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALOFT. THE PORT HEDLAND,
AUSTRALIA RADAR LOOP SHOWS THAT CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN AREAL
COVERAGE, ESPECIALLY WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC. TC 14P (STEVE)
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH 48 HOURS UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER WESTERN
CENTRAL AUSTRALIA. TC 14P WILL GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER
THE 48-HOUR POINT AS IT TRACKS TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE CAUSED BY AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. TC 14P SHOULD
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AS IT TRACKS UNDER A
VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
051200Z8 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 052100Z8 (DTG 051951Z1),
060300Z9 (DTG 060151Z3), 060900Z5 (DTG 060751Z9) AND 061500Z2 (DTG
061351Z6). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GLORIA) WARNING (WTXS31
PGTW) FOR ITS FINAL WARNING. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (NORMAN)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS35 PGTW 20000305 21:00z AMD
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (STEVE) WARNING NR 021A AMENDED
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z4 --- NEAR 19.9S9 118.5E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
050 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 19.9S9 118.5E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 20.4S6 116.5E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
055 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 20.9S1 114.8E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
060 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 21.6S9 113.3E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
030 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
070 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 22.8S2 112.1E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z7 --- 25.7S4 110.6E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
052100Z8 POSITION NEAR 20.0S2 118.0E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14P (STEVE) HAS TAKEN A SUDDEN WESTWARD TURN
AWAY FROM THE COAST OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS. EARLIER WARNING PROJECTED
THE SYSTEM TO MOVE ON SHORE AROUND 060600Z2. LANDFALL IS NO LONGER
EXPECTED DUE TO THE SHIFT TO THE WEST. THEREFORE, WARNING 21 HAS
BEEN AMENDED TO REFLECT THE TRACK CHANGE. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14P
(STEVE), LOCATED ABOUT 22 NM NORTH OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS
TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 051730Z6 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY,
SYNOPTIC DATA, AND RADAR DATA. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 AND 55 KNOTS AND
SYNOPTIC SURFACE DATA. A 051308Z7 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER
(SSM/I) DEPICTED TWO BANDING FEATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM.
THE FIRST, EXTENDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT, FROM THE EIGHTY
MILE BEACH TO PORT HEDLAND. THE SECOND, OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT.
IMAGERY ALSO INDICATED THAT OVERALL, THE CONVECTION HAS REMAINED
OVER THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA RADAR LOOP
REVEALS A RATHER BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER JUST NORTH OF
POISSONIER POINT. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTIVE BAND OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT.
MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST AUSTRALIA TO THE NORTHWEST
REGION OF QUEENSLAND IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN ITS POSITION THROUGH 48
HOURS. AFTERWARD, IT WILL WEAKEN OVER SOUTHWEST AUSTRALIA AND SHIFT
INTO A MORE POLEWARD PATTERN AS AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVES TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST COAST. TC 14P (STEVE) IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTERWARD, TC 14P SHOULD
TRACK MORE SOUTHWARD WITHIN A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. TC 14P (STEVE)
SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHWEST CAPE.
JUSTIFICATION FOR AMMENDMENT: SUDDEN SHIFT IN TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z4 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
060300Z9 (DTG 060151Z3), 060900Z5 (DTG 060751Z9), 061500Z2 (DTG
061351Z6) AND 062100Z9 (DTG 061951Z2). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
16S (NORMAN) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS35 PGTW 20000306 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (STEVE) WARNING NR 022
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z6 --- NEAR 20.1S3 117.7E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
050 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 20.1S3 117.7E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z9 --- 20.7S9 116.1E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
060 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z7 --- 21.3S6 114.6E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
025 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
060 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z0 --- 22.3S7 113.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
025 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
060 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z8 --- 23.7S2 112.2E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
050 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z9 --- 26.7S5 111.6E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
060300Z9 POSITION NEAR 20.3S5 117.3E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14P (STEVE), LOCATED ABOUT 52 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 052330Z3 INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY, SYNOPTIC DATA,
AND RADAR DATA. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS AND SYNOPTIC SURFACE DATA. ANIMATED
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTED NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPING AND
BUILDING IN TOWARD THE BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO REMAIN OVER
THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA RADAR LOOP
REVEALS A RATHER BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER JUST NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS PROPAGATING
OVER THE ROEBOURNE, DAMPIER AREA. MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
SOUTHWEST AUSTRALIA TO THE NORTHWEST REGION OF QUEENSLAND IS
FORECAST TO MAINTAIN ITS POSITION THROUGH 36 HOURS. AFTERWARD, IT
WILL WEAKEN OVER SOUTHWEST AUSTRALIA AND SHIFT INTO A MORE POLEWARD
PATTERN AS AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST COAST. TC 14P (STEVE) IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD JUST OFF THE COAST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AFTERWARD,
TC 14P SHOULD TRACK MORE SOUTHWARD WITHIN A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE.
TC 14P (STEVE) SHOULD SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS IT APPROACHES THE
NORTHWEST CAPE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z6 IS 18
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z5 (DTG 060751Z9), 061500Z2 (DTG
061351Z6), 062100Z9 (DTG 061951Z2) AND 070300Z0 (DTG 070151Z4).
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (NORMAN) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS35 PGTW 20000306 09:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (STEVE) WARNING NR 023
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z2 --- NEAR 20.2S4 116.9E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
050 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 20.2S4 116.9E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 20.6S8 115.2E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
060 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 21.3S6 113.5E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
060 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 22.2S6 112.3E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 23.5S0 111.5E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z5 --- 26.1S9 110.7E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
060900Z5 POSITION NEAR 20.3S5 116.5E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14P (STEVE), LOCATED ABOUT 200 NM NORTHEAST OF
LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS DURING THE
PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 060530Z4 INFRARED AND
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY, SYNOPTIC DATA, AND RADAR DATA. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 55 AND 65 KNOTS AND SYNOPTIC SURFACE DATA. ANIMATED MULTI-
SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC 14P (STEVE) HAS CONTINUED
TO STRENGTHEN AND HAS DEVELOPED A 105 NM DIAMETER CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST (CDO). ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM THE PORT HEDLAND,
AUSTRALIA SITE INDICATES THAT THE STRONGEST CONVECTION IS SOUTH
THROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). TC 14P
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD, ALONG THE NORTHWEST COAST
OF AUSTRALIA THROUGH 48 HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. AFTER 48 HOURS, THE MID-
LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DUE TO AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SHIFT TO A POLEWARD
PATTERN, WHICH WILL STEER TC 14P SOUTHWESTWARD. TC 14P (STEVE)
SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THROUGH THE 24-HOUR POINT AS IT
MOVES WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, SOMEWHAT HINDERED DUE TO
INTERACTION WITH LAND. AFTERWARDS TC 14P SHOULD WEAKEN DUE TO
INTERACTION WITH THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 060600Z2 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z2 (DTG
061351Z6), 062100Z9 (DTG 061951Z2), 070300Z0 (DTG 070151Z4) AND
070900Z6 (DTG 070751Z0). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (NORMAN)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS35 PGTW 20000306 15:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (STEVE) WARNING NR 024
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z9 --- NEAR 20.6S8 116.2E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
080 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 20.6S8 116.2E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z7 --- 21.2S5 114.9E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
030 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
080 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z0 --- 22.0S4 113.6E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
030 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
080 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z8 --- 23.0S5 112.3E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z1 --- 24.2S8 111.3E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z2 --- 26.3S1 110.3E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
061500Z2 POSITION NEAR 20.8S0 115.9E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14P (STEVE), LOCATED ABOUT 150 NM NORTHEAST OF
LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 061130Z1
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY, SYNOPTIC DATA, AND RADAR DATA. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 55 AND 65 KNOTS AND SYNOPTIC SURFACE DATA. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC 14P (STEVE) HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
EMBEDDED ABOUT 45 NM INTO THE CONVECTION. ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY
FROM THE PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA SITE DEPICTS AN INNER-CORE OF
CONVECTION STRADDLING THE COAST NEAR DAMPIER, AUSTRALIA WITH THE
MAJORITY OF DEEP CONVECTION NOW OVER WATER. TC 14P IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD, SKIRTING THE NORTHWEST COAST OF
AUSTRALIA THROUGH 24 HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-
LEVEL RIDGE OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. AFTER 24 HOURS, THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DUE TO AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SHIFT TO A POLEWARD PATTERN,
WHICH WILL STEER TC 14P SOUTHWESTWARD. TC 14P (STEVE) SHOULD
MAINTAIN INTENSITY AT 65 TO 70 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT
MOVES WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, SOMEWHAT HINDERED DUE TO
INTERACTION WITH LAND. AFTERWARDS TC 14P SHOULD WEAKEN DUE TO
INTERACTION WITH THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 061200Z9 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z9 (DTG
061951Z2), 070300Z0 (DTG 070151Z4), 070900Z6 (DTG 070751Z0) AND
071500Z3 (DTG 071351Z7). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (NORMAN)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS35 PGTW 20000306 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (STEVE) WARNING NR 025
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z5 --- NEAR 21.6S9 115.5E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
080 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 21.6S9 115.5E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 22.6S0 114.1E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
025 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
080 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 23.5S0 113.0E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
070 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 24.7S3 112.0E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z7 --- 26.1S9 111.0E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z8 --- 29.2S3 109.9E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
062100Z9 POSITION NEAR 21.9S2 115.1E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14P (STEVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 85 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
061730Z7 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY, SYNOPTIC DATA, AND RADAR DATA.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THAT TC 14P (STEVE) HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS
WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
20 NM EAST OF ONSLOW, AUSTRALIA. TC 14P (STEVE) IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD, SKIRTING THE NORTHWEST COAST OF AUSTRALIA
THROUGH THE 24 HOUR PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-
LEVEL RIDGE OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. AFTER 24 HOURS, THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DUE TO AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SHIFT TO A POLEWARD PATTERN,
WHICH WILL STEER TC 14P (STEVE) SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY AT 55 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AFTERWARDS TC 14P (STEVE) SHOULD WEAKEN DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z5 IS
16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070300Z6 (DTG 070151Z0), 070900Z6 (DTG
070751Z0), 071500Z6 (DTG 071351Z0) AND 072100Z0 (DTG 071951Z3).
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (NORMAN) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18P (LEO)
WARNINGS (WTPS31 PHNC) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS35 PGTW 20000307 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (STEVE) WARNING NR 026
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z7 --- NEAR 22.3S7 115.2E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
060 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 22.3S7 115.2E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z0 --- 23.3S8 114.3E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
055 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z8 --- 24.3S9 113.5E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
055 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z1 --- 25.5S2 112.7E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
055 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z9 --- 26.9S7 112.2E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z1 --- 29.8S9 112.6E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
070300Z0 POSITION NEAR 22.6S0 115.0E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14P (STEVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 60 NM EAST
OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 062330Z4
VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY, SYNOPTIC DATA, AND RADAR
DATA. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65 KNOTS AND SYNOPTIC DATA. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC 14P (STEVE) HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 60 NM EAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. TC 14P
(STEVE) IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD, SKIRTING THE
NORTHWEST COAST OF AUSTRALIA THROUGH THE 24 HOUR PERIOD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA.
AFTER 24 HOURS, THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DUE TO AN
APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
SHIFT TO A POLEWARD PATTERN, WHICH WILL STEER TC 14P (STEVE)
SOUTHWARD. THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN SLIGHTLY DUE TO INTERACTION WITH
LAND OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH, INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL INHIBIT THE POSSIBILITY FOR ANY FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION AS IT MOVES BACK OVER WATER. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z7 IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z6
(DTG 070751Z0), 071500Z3 (DTG 071351Z7), 072100Z0 (DTG 071951Z3) AND
080300Z1 (DTG 080151Z5). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (NORMAN)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL
STORM LEO (18P) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PHNC) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS35 PGTW 20000307 09:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (STEVE) WARNING NR 027
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z3 --- NEAR 22.7S1 114.5E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
060 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 22.7S1 114.5E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 23.8S3 113.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
055 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 25.0S7 112.1E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
055 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z7 --- 26.1S9 111.5E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z5 --- 27.4S3 111.3E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z7 --- 31.3S7 112.3E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
070900Z6 POSITION NEAR 23.0S5 114.2E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14P (STEVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 60 NM SOUTH
OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS,
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 070530Z5
VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY, SYNOPTIC DATA, AND RADAR
DATA. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS AND SYNOPTIC DATA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC 14P (STEVE) HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE
GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT, HOWEVER INTERACTION WITH LAND HAS SERVED TO
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. TC 14P (STEVE) IS FORECAST
TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD INITIALLY, THEN INCREASINGLY SOUTHWARD
THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE SYSTEM SHOULD
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL
INHIBIT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN IT AS IT IS
ABSORBED INTO THE PASSING MID-LATITUDE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z3 IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 071500Z3 (DTG
071351Z7), 072100Z0 (DTG 071951Z3), 080300Z1 (DTG 080151Z5), AND
080900Z7 (DTG 080751Z1). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (NORMAN)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 18P (LEO) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PHNC) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS35 PGTW 20000307 15:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (STEVE) WARNING NR 028
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z0 --- NEAR 23.3S8 114.0E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
060 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 23.3S8 114.0E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z8 --- 24.6S2 112.9E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
055 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z1 --- 25.5S2 112.1E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z9 --- 26.4S2 111.9E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z2 --- 27.3S2 111.9E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z4 --- 30.3S6 114.4E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
071500Z3 POSITION NEAR 23.6S1 113.7E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14P (STEVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 65 NM SOUTH
OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS,
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 071130Z2
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY, AND SYNOPTIC DATA. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS, AS
WELL AS SYNOPTIC DATA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THAT TC 14P (STEVE) HAS BEGUN TO MOVE OFF OF AUSTRALIA AND INTO THE
INDIAN OCEAN. THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT OVER THE
PAST 6 HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE
GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT, HOWEVER INTERACTION WITH LAND HAS SERVED TO
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM OVER THE PAST 18 HOURS. TC 14P (STEVE) IS FORECAST
TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD INITIALLY, THEN RECURVE THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY
OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH, INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT, THEN SERVE TO WEAKEN
THE SYSTEM, UNTIL IT IS ABSORBED INTO THE PASSING MID-LATITUDE
SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z0 IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 072100Z0 (DTG 071951Z3), 080300Z1 (DTG 080151Z5),
080900Z7 (DTG 080751Z1) AND 081500Z4 (DTG 081351Z8). REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (NORMAN) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18P (LEO) WARNINGS
(WTPS31 PHNC) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS35 PGTW 20000307 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (STEVE) WARNING NR 029
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z6 --- NEAR 23.6S1 113.6E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
065 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 23.6S1 113.6E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 24.6S2 112.7E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
085 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z7 --- 25.6S3 112.1E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
075 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z5 --- 26.7S5 112.0E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
075 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z8 --- 27.7S6 112.7E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
065 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z0 --- 29.6S7 114.7E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
035 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
072100Z0 POSITION NEAR 23.9S4 113.4E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14P (STEVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 82 NM SOUTH
OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 071730Z8
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TC 14P
(STEVE) HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. ANIMATED RADAR
IMAGERY FROM DAMPIER, AUSTRALIA CLEARLY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS SITUATED JUST OFF THE COAST AND WEST OF
MINILYA. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE GOOD
OUTFLOW ALOFT. TC 14P (STEVE) IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD
INITIALLY, THEN RECURVE THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES BACK OVER
WATER DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH AFTER THE
24 HOUR PERIOD, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL INHIBIT
DEVELOPMENT, THEN SERVE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM, UNTIL IT IS ABSORBED
INTO THE PASSING MID-LATITUDE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 071800Z6 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z1 (DTG
080151Z5), 080900Z7 (DTG 080751Z1), 081500Z4 (DTG 081351Z8) AND
082100Z1 (DTG 081951Z4). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (NORMAN)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE LEO (18P) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PHNC) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS35 PGTW 20000308 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (STEVE) WARNING NR 030
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z8 --- NEAR 23.9S4 113.4E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
070 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 23.9S4 113.4E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z1 --- 24.5S1 113.0E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
085 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z9 --- 25.5S2 112.5E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z2 --- 26.6S4 112.4E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z1 --- 27.9S8 112.9E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z2 --- 30.4S7 115.4E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
040 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
080300Z1 POSITION NEAR 24.1S7 113.3E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14P (STEVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 100 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 4 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 072330Z5 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND RADAR DATA. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TC 14P (STEVE) HAS CONTINUED TO
ORGANIZE OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM DAMPIER,
AUSTRALIA CLEARLY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS
SITUATED JUST OFF THE COAST AND NORTH OF CAPE CUVIER. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. TC 14P
(STEVE) IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD INITIALLY, THEN
RECURVE THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER WATER
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH, AFTER THE 24
HOUR PERIOD, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT
AND THEN SERVE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM, UNTIL IT IS ABSORBED INTO THE
PASSING MID-LATITUDE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
080000Z8 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z7 (DTG 080751Z1),
081500Z4 (DTG 081351Z8), 082100Z1 (DTG 081951Z4) AND 090300Z2 (DTG
090151Z6). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (NORMAN) WARNINGS (WTXS32
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (LEO)
WARNINGS (WTPS31 PHNC) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 19P WARNINGS (WTPS32 PHNC) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS35 PGTW 20000308 09:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (STEVE) WARNING NR 031
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z4 --- NEAR 24.7S3 113.3E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
070 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 24.7S3 113.3E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z7 --- 25.7S4 113.0E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
070 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z5 --- 26.7S5 112.7E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z8 --- 28.4S4 113.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z7 --- 30.0S3 114.5E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
050 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z8 --- 33.2S8 119.8E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
080900Z7 POSITION NEAR 25.0S7 113.2E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14P (STEVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 23 NM
NORTHWEST OF CARNARVON, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 080530Z6
VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY, SYNOPTIC DATA, AND RADAR
DATA. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TC 14P (STEVE) HAS BEGUN TO SHEAR OFF TO
THE EAST. ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM DAMPIER, AUSTRALIA SHOWS THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS SITUATED NEAR THE TIP OF CAPE
RONSARD IN THE GEOGRAPHE CHANNEL. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO INDICATE GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. TC 14P (STEVE) IS FORECAST
TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD INITIALLY, THEN RECURVE THROUGH A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE ALONG THE COAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WILL INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT AND THEN SERVE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM, UNTIL
IT IS ABSORBED INTO THE PASSING MID-LATITUDE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z4 IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
081500Z4 (DTG 081351Z8), 082100Z1 (DTG 081951Z4), 090300Z2
(090151Z6), AND 090900Z8 (DTG 090751Z2). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
16S (NORMAN) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER
TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18P (LEO) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PHNC) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P WARNINGS (WTPS32
PHNC) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS35 PGTW 20000308 15:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (STEVE) WARNING NR 032
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z1 --- NEAR 24.9S5 113.0E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
065 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 24.9S5 113.0E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z9 --- 25.9S6 112.8E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
065 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z2 --- 27.7S6 113.8E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z1 --- 29.8S9 115.7E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
060 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z4 --- 31.8S2 118.9E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
081500Z4 POSITION NEAR 25.2S9 113.0E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14P (STEVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 35 NM
WEST OF CARNARVON, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 03 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 081130Z3
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY, SYNOPTIC DATA, AND RADAR DATA. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 55 AND 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH TC 14P (STEVE) HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN AND IS BECOMING
MORE DISORGANIZED. ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM CARNARVON, AUSTRALIA
SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS SITUATED OVER THE
NORTHERN END OF BERNIER ISLAND. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO INDICATE GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. TC 14P (STEVE) IS FORECAST
TO TRACK SOUTHWARD RECURVING THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS IT CONTINUES TO
MOVE ALONG THE COAST OF WESTERN AUSTRALIA IN A HIGH VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. LANDFALL IS EXPECTED NEAR GERALDTON AT 091800Z8,
AFTER WHICH INTERACTION WITH LAND WILL FURTHER WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z1 IS 16
FEET. SUBSEQUENT WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED TO 48 HOURS ON A 12 HOURLY
SCHEDULE. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z2 (DTG 090151Z6) AND 091500Z5 (DTG
091351Z9). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (NORMAN) WARNINGS (WTXS32
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18P
(LEO) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PHNC) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19P WARNINGS (WTPS32 PHNC) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS35 PGTW 20000309 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (STEVE) WARNING NR 033
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z9 --- NEAR 25.6S3 113.8E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
055 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 25.6S3 113.8E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z2 --- 26.7S5 114.4E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
055 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z1 --- 28.5S5 115.9E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
035 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z4 --- 30.2S5 119.1E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z2 --- 32.4S9 123.0E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
090300Z2 POSITION NEAR 25.9S6 113.9E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14P (STEVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 45 NM
SOUTH OF CARNARVON, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
082330Z6 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY, SYNOPTIC DATA AND
RADAR IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION REMAINING OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS CONVECTION OVER THE NAVIGABLE
SEMI-CIRCLE HAS WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE
LATEST CARNARVON RADAR IMAGE INDICATED SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OF THE
HEAVY PRECIPITATION WHICH WAS SITUATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM.
MODERATE PRECIPITATION IS NOW CONFINED TO AN AREA OVER SHARK BAY
NEAR THE LLCC. MID-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS TC 14P (STEVE) HAS
REMAINED WITHIN A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. TC 14P HAS
BEGUN TO TURN MORE TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH THE APPROACH OF A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING TOWARD
SOUTHWEST AUSTRALIA. TC 14P (STEVE) IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE COAST AND ULTIMATELY,
DISSIPATES OVER LAND. LANDFALL IS EXPECTED NEAR HAMELIN AT 090800Z7.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z9 IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 091500Z5 (DTG 091351Z9) AND 100300Z4 (DTG 100151Z8).
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (NORMAN) (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR FINAL
WARNING. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (LEO) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PHNC)
FOR FINAL WARNING. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (MONA) WARNINGS
(WTPS32 PHNC) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS35 PGTW 20000309 15:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (STEVE) WARNING NR 034
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z2 --- NEAR 25.9S6 114.2E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
065 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 25.9S6 114.2E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z1 --- 26.6S4 114.9E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
055 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z4 --- 27.6S5 115.8E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z2 --- 29.1S2 117.5E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
091500Z5 POSITION NEAR 26.1S9 114.4E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14P (STEVE), HAS INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY AND MADE
LANDFALL NEAR HAMELIN, AUSTRALIA AT APPROXIMATELY 091130Z4, AND HAS
TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 091130Z4 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY,
SYNOPTIC DATA AND RADAR IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS, AND
SYNOPTIC DATA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE
CONVECTION HAS STRENGTHENED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. IMAGERY
ALSO DEPICTS A 90-NM DIAMETER SYMMETRIC AREA OF CONVECTION CENTERED
OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE LATEST CARNARVON
RADAR IMAGE SHOWS THAT THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION IS NOW OVER LAND
EAST AND SOUTH OF THE LLCC. A 091027Z9 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE
IMAGER PASS DEPICTS A RELATIVELY SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR
THE LLCC WITH A LARGE AREA DISPLACED ABOUT 120 NM SOUTH OF THE LLCC.
MID-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS TC 14P (STEVE) HAS REMAINED WITHIN A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. TC 14P SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLOWLY
AND TO DISSIPATE OVER LAND NEAR THE 24 TO 36 HOUR PERIOD. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 100300Z4 (DTG 100151Z8) AND 101500Z7 (DTG 101351Z1).
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE MONA (19P) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PHNC) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS35 PGTW 20000310 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (STEVE) WARNING NR 035
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z1 --- NEAR 26.8S6 115.9E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.8S6 115.9E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z4 --- 28.4S4 118.1E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z2 --- 30.5S8 121.2E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
100300Z4 POSITION NEAR 27.2S1 116.4E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14P (STEVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 97 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HAMELIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 092330Z7 INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY, AND SYNOPTIC
DATA. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS, AND SYNOPTIC DATA. ANIMATED INFRARED AND
MULTI-SPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICT THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN
PERSISTENT AND HAS REMAINED OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) EVEN THOUGH THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN TRACKING OVER LAND DURING THE
PAST 12 HOURS. THE LLCC, HOWEVER, APPEARS TO BE CLOSER TO THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION THAN 6 HOURS AGO, INDICATIVE OF AN
INCREASING WESTERLY WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. TC 14P SHOULD CONTINUE
TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA AND
DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z7 (DTG 101351Z1). REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 19P (MONA) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PHNC) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS35 PGTW 20000310 15:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (STEVE) WARNING NR 036
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z4 --- NEAR 29.0S1 118.9E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 29.0S1 118.9E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z2 --- 31.2S6 122.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
101500Z7 POSITION NEAR 29.6S7 119.7E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14P (STEVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM EAST
OF GERALDTON, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 17 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 101130Z6
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS, AND SYNOPTIC
DATA. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY WEAKENING SYSTEM
WITH DEEP CONVECTION DECREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES THAT TC 14P (STEVE) HAS A PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND IS UNDER STRONG
WESTERLY WIND SHEAR. TC 14P SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD
OVER SOUTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA AND DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE
SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE MONA (19P) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PHNC) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
|
Document: steve.htm
Updated: 26th December 2006 |
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