[Index]
Tropical Cyclone LEON-ELINE
[Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere][Summaries and Track Data]
| Tropical
Cyclones
[Index] |
Tropical Cyclone LEON-ELINE [Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere][Summaries and Track Data] |
WTXS21 PGTW 20000203 14:00z
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.3S5 109.2E2 TO 12.9S2 105.1E7
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
031130Z8 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 11.5S7
108.7E6. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.5S8
108.9E8 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.5S7 108.7E6, APPROXIMATELY 190 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS PERSISTENT BUT DISORGANIZED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS INDICATES
WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE AREA. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS FAIR OUTFLOW ALOFT. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS NOW GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 041400Z9.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000204 03:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
040000Z4 --- NEAR 12.1S4 107.1E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.1S4 107.1E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z7 --- 12.7S0 105.9E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z5 --- 13.5S9 104.5E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z8 --- 14.0S5 103.1E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z6 --- 14.3S8 101.7E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
040300Z7 POSITION NEAR 12.2S5 106.8E5.
TC 11S HAS FORMED SOUTH OF JAVA, AND HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
032330Z1 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 25
KNOTS. A RECENT QUICK SCATT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATES AN
ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 031530Z2, PARTIAL
ERS-2 SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATES 20 KNOT WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN QUADRANTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG
CONVECTION ORGANIZING ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LLCC, WITH
CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST. UW-CIMSS VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR PRODUCT INDICATES MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN THE
AREA. TC 11S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH. TC 11S IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP AT A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE DUE TO
MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN THE AREA. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z4 IS 12 FEET. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS NAVPACMETOCCEN 031351Z3 FEB 00 TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 031400) NEXT WARNINGS AT
041500Z0 (DTG 041351Z4) AND 050300Z8 (DTG 050151Z2).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000204 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (LEON) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z7 --- NEAR 12.9S2 105.3E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.9S2 105.3E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z5 --- 13.7S1 103.8E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z8 --- 14.4S9 102.5E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z6 --- 15.0S6 101.2E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z9 --- 15.4S0 100.1E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
041500Z0 POSITION NEAR 13.1S5 104.9E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (LEON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM SOUTH
OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON 041130Z9
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS. A 041054Z4 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSMI) PASS
INDICATES A WEAK SPIRAL BAND OF CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST WITH THE MAJORITY
OF THE CONVECTION LOCATED IN THE WESTERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. 200
MB ANALYSIS DEPICTS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES FAIR OUTFLOW ALOFT. TC 11S
(LEON) IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY UNDER AN IMPROVING
ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z7 IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 050300Z8 (DTG 050151Z2) AND 051500Z1 (DTG
051351Z5).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000205 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (LEON) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z5 --- NEAR 14.0S5 104.2E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 14.0S5 104.2E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z8 --- 14.7S2 102.9E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z6 --- 15.6S2 101.8E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z9 --- 16.2S9 100.4E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z7 --- 16.8S5 98.9E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
050300Z8 POSITION NEAR 14.2S7 103.9E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (LEON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 440 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
042330Z2 INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 AND 55
KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT
OVERALL INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. ALTHOUGH
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER APPEARS TO BE NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE
OF THE CONVECTION, IMAGERY REVEALS POSSIBLE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
(CDO) DEVELOPMENT WITH A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES.
A 042222Z2 PARTIAL TROPICAL RAINFALL MEASURING MISSION (37GHZ)
(TRMM) PASS INDICATED POSSIBLE EYE FORMATION. 700 MB ANALYSIS
INDICATES ZONAL MID-LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED ALONG 30S3 WITH A WEAKNESS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH POSITIONED OFF THE SOUTHWEST
COAST OF AUSTRALIA. TC 11S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN
THE WEAKNESS OF THE RIDGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z5 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
051500Z1 (DTG 051351Z5) AND 060300Z9 (DTG 060151Z3).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000205 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (LEON) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z8 --- NEAR 14.8S3 102.8E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S3 102.8E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z6 --- 15.8S4 101.6E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z9 --- 16.8S5 100.0E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z7 --- 17.7S5 98.1E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z0 --- 18.2S1 95.8E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
051500Z1 POSITION NEAR 15.1S7 102.5E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (LEON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 380 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
051130Z0 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS IMPROVED DURING
THE PAST 6 HOURS, HOWEVER, ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC
11S (LEON) IS UNDER NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AS EVIDENCED BY A TIGHT
THERMAL GRADIENT ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM. A
050805Z8 TROPICAL RAINFALL MEASURING MISSION (TRMM) PASS DEPICTS A
CONVECTIVE BAND WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC),
WHICH WRAPS INTO THE NORTHERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. THE TRMM PASS
ALSO SHOWS THAT INFLOW HAS WEAKENED IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT AS
COMPARED TO EARLIER MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE 700 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS
THAT THE STEERING INFLUENCE, THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE, EXTENDS WESTWARD
FROM THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF AUSTRALIA ALONG 30S3 WITH A WEAKNESS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FURTHER WEST. TC 11S (LEON) IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE WEAKNESS OF THE RIDGE
THROUGH THE 36-HOUR POINT, THEN TRACK MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY DURING THE INITIAL 24 HOURS
BUT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN HAMPERED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHEAR. TC 11S (LEON) IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN
AFTER 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES INTO A MORE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z8 IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 060300Z9 (DTG 060151Z3) AND 061500Z2 (DTG 061351Z6).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000206 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (LEON) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z6 --- NEAR 15.9S5 101.6E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9S5 101.6E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z9 --- 17.0S8 100.1E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z7 --- 17.9S7 98.2E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z0 --- 18.7S6 96.0E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z8 --- 18.7S6 93.6E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
060300Z9 POSITION NEAR 16.2S9 101.2E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (LEON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM
SOUTHEAST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
052330Z3 INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65
KNOTS. A 052246Z9 TROPICAL RAINFALL MEASURING MISSION (TRMM) PASS
DEPICTED AN INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
SYSTEM AND DEVELOPMENT OF A CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURE WRAPPING IN
TOWARD THE CENTER FROM THE SOUTH AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST. THE TRMM
PASS ALSO REVEALED ANOTHER WEAKER BAND DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST OF THE
LLCC. ANIMATED IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVED OUTFLOW OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS
PARTICULARLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF. 700 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A RIDGE
EXTENDING WEST TO ABOUT 110E FROM A MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER
SOUTH AUSTRALIA. A MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EVIDENT NEAR 92E1. TC
11S (LEON) SHOULD TRACK GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
36 HOURS. AFTERWARD, A MID-LEVEL HIGH WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CAUSING TC 11S TO TRACK WESTWARD. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTERWARD,
INCREASED NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR WILL BEGIN TO INFLUENCE
THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z6 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z2 (DTG
061351Z6) AND 070300Z0 (DTG 070151Z4).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000206 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (LEON) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z9 --- NEAR 17.2S0 99.7E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2S0 99.7E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z7 --- 18.2S1 97.5E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z0 --- 19.1S1 95.1E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z8 --- 19.8S8 92.6E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z1 --- 20.1S3 89.7E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
061500Z2 POSITION NEAR 17.5S3 99.2E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (LEON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 340 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
061130Z1 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 AND 77 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
EMBEDDED ABOUT 60 NM INTO THE CONVECTION. IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS THAT
THE CONVECTION HAS DECREASED IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS AND IS SYMMETRIC AROUND THE LLCC. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS THAT OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED OVERALL IN THE PAST 8 HOURS EXCEPT
IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT, WHERE IT REMAINS HINDERED BY
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TC 11S (LEON) IS
UNDER THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, BUT MAY HAVE AN ANTICYCLONE
FORMING OVER IT. UW-CIMSS CHARTS INDICATE THAT TC 11S (LEON) IS
UNDER WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE 500 MB ANALYSIS
SHOWS A RIDGE EXTENDING WEST TO ABOUT 95E4 FROM A MID-LEVEL HIGH
CENTERED AT 24S6 113E5, AND A MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR 92E1. TC
11S (LEON) SHOULD TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE
NEXT 36 HOURS. AFTERWARD, THE MID-LEVEL HIGH WILL BUILD IN BEHIND
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH STEERING TC 11S (LEON) WESTWARD. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS DUE TO
AN IMPROVED ENVIRONMENT. AFTERWARD, TC 11S (LEON) WILL WEAKEN AS IT
ENCOUNTERS INCREASED NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z9 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
070300Z0 (DTG 070151Z4) AND 071500Z3 (DTG 071351Z7).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000207 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (LEON) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z7 --- NEAR 17.9S7 98.2E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9S7 98.2E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z0 --- 18.6S5 96.0E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z8 --- 19.2S2 93.8E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z1 --- 19.7S7 91.6E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z9 --- 20.1S3 89.0E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z1 --- 20.7S9 83.8E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
070300Z0 POSITION NEAR 18.1S0 97.7E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (LEON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
062330Z4 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 TO 77 KNOTS.
A 062322Z5 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I) PASS INDICATED
THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WAS LOCATED UNDER THE
NORTHEASTERN REGION OF THE CONVECTION. THE PASS ALSO SHOWED THAT THE
CONVECTION HAD BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC THAN THE PREVIOUS PASS. THE
PREVIOUS (061404Z5) SSM/I PASS INDICATED MORE OF A BANDING FEATURE
WRAP. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE SYSTEM HAS
DECREASED IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. IMAGERY ALSO
DEPICTS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM HAS COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF NORTHERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. IT APPEARS THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE HAS WEAKENED AND SHIFTED EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. THE 500 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDING WEST FROM SOUTHWEST AUSTRALIA TO ABOUT 102E3. A MAJOR
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EVIDENT NEAR
95E1 AND EXTENDS EQUATORWARD TO APPROXIMATELY 28S0 77E4. TC 11S
(LEON) SHOULD TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE WEAKNESS
CREATED BY THE TROUGH OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AFTERWARD, THE MID-
LEVEL RIDGE WILL RE-ESTABLISH SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM CAUSING TC 11S
(LEON) TO TRACK WITHIN THE TROPICAL EASTERLIES THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD. LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
12 HOURS. AFTERWARD, TC 11S (LEON) WILL WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS
INCREASED NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070300Z0 (DTG
070151Z4), 071500Z3 (DTG 071351Z7), 072100Z0 (DTG 071951Z3), AND
080300Z1 (DTG 080151Z5).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000207 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (LEON) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z3 --- NEAR 18.1S0 97.2E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 18.1S0 97.2E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 18.7S6 95.2E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 19.3S3 93.0E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z7 --- 19.8S8 90.8E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z5 --- 20.1S3 88.2E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z7 --- 20.7S9 83.1E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
070900Z6 POSITION NEAR 18.3S2 96.7E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (LEON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM SOUTH
OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 070530Z5 VISIBLE AND
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 TO 65 KNOTS. A 062309Z0 TROPICAL
RAINFALL MEASURING MISSION (TRMM) PASS SHOWS A CONVECTIVE BAND
SOUTH WHICH WRAPS INTO THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. THE
TRMM PASS ALSO SHOWS THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS
WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAKENING
SHEARED SYSTEM WITH THE LLCC EMBEDDED ABOUT 30 NM INTO THE
CONVECTION. THE 062311Z3 SCATTEROMETRY PASS CONTINUES TO SHOW A
WELL-DEFINED SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH STRONG INFLOW IN THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE SYSTEM. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE HAS SHIFTED JUST EAST OF THE LLCC WITH
NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR OVER TC 11S. THE UW-CIMSS SHEAR
CHART ALSO INDICATES INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE LLCC.
THE 500 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING WEST FROM
SOUTHWEST AUSTRALIA TO ABOUT 98E7. A MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EVIDENT NEAR 95E4 AND
EXTENDS EQUATORWARD TO APPROXIMATELY 28S0 77E4. TC 11S (LEON)
SHOULD TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE WEAKNESS
CREATED BY THE TROUGH OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AFTERWARD, THE MID-
LEVEL RIDGE WILL RE-ESTABLISH SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM CAUSING TC 11S
(LEON) TO TRACK WITHIN THE TROPICAL EASTERLIES THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD. TC 11S (LEON) IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT REMAINS UNDER MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
AFTERWARD, TC 11S (LEON) WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT ENCOUNTERS
INCREASED NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND SHOULD BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 070600Z3 IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 071500Z3 (DTG
071351Z7), 072100Z0 (DTG 071951Z3), 080300Z1 (DTG 080151Z5) AND
080900Z7 (DTG 080751Z1).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000207 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (LEON) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z0 --- NEAR 18.4S3 96.0E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 18.4S3 96.0E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z8 --- 18.9S8 93.7E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z1 --- 19.3S3 91.5E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z9 --- 19.5S5 89.1E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z2 --- 19.8S8 86.8E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z4 --- 20.5S7 82.2E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
071500Z3 POSITION NEAR 18.5S4 95.4E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (LEON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 380 NM SOUTH
OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 071130Z2 INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS. BOTH THE 070713Z8 TROPICAL RAINFALL
MEASURING MISSION (TRMM) PASS AND THE 071156Z0 SPECIAL SENSOR
MICROWAVE IMAGER PASS DEPICT DEEP CONVECTION WEST THROUGH SOUTHWEST
OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH WELL-DEFINED CLOUD
LINES EXPOSED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAKENING SYSTEM AS
EVIDENCED BY RAPIDLY WARMING CLOUD TOPS. IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS THAT TC
11S (LEON) STILL HAS FAIR OUTFLOW ALOFT EXCEPT IN THE NORTHEASTERN
QUADRANT. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE HAS SHIFTED JUST EAST OF THE LLCC WITH NORTHEASTERLY
SHEAR OVER TC 11S. THE UW-CIMSS SHEAR CHART ALSO INDICATES INCREASED
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE LLCC. THE 500 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A MID-
LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING WEST FROM SOUTHWEST AUSTRALIA TO ABOUT 98E7. A
MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EVIDENT
NEAR 95E4 AND EXTENDS EQUATORWARD TO APPROXIMATELY 28S0 77E4. TC 11S
(LEON) SHOULD TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE
WEAKNESS CREATED BY THE TROUGH OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AFTERWARD,
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL RE-ESTABLISH SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM CAUSING TC
11S (LEON) TO TRACK WITHIN THE TROPICAL EASTERLIES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TC 11S (LEON) IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT REMAINS UNDER MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. AFTERWARD, TC 11S (LEON) WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT
ENCOUNTERS INCREASED NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND SHOULD
BEGIN TO DISSIPATE TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z0 IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
072100Z0 (DTG 071951Z3), 080300Z1 (DTG 080151Z5), 080900Z7
(DTG 080751Z1) AND 081500Z4 (DTG 081351Z8).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000207 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (LEON) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z6 --- NEAR 18.2S1 94.6E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S1 94.6E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 18.3S2 91.8E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z7 --- 18.5S4 88.8E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z5 --- 18.7S6 85.8E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z8 --- 19.0S0 82.9E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z0 --- 19.9S9 76.9E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
072100Z0 POSITION NEAR 18.2S1 93.9E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (LEON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 380 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON
071730Z8 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
UPON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY OVER THE
PAST 6 HOURS. HOWEVER, WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC 11S (LEON)
HAS FAIR OUTFLOW ALOFT EXCEPT IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THE 200
MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS LOCATED
SOUTHEAST OF TC 11S (LEON) WITH NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM.
UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE
SYSTEM. TC 11S (LEON) IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD WITHIN THE
TROPICAL EASTERLIES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH. TC 11S (LEON) IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SHOULD BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE AFTER THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z6 IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z1 (DTG
080151Z5), 080900Z7 (DTG 080751Z1), 081500Z4 (DTG 081351Z8) AND
082100Z1 (DTG 081951Z4).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000208 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (LEON) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z8 --- NEAR 18.2S1 93.2E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S1 93.2E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z1 --- 18.3S2 90.5E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z9 --- 18.3S2 87.6E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z2 --- 18.4S3 84.6E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z1 --- 18.6S5 81.7E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z2 --- 18.8S7 75.7E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
080300Z1 POSITION NEAR 18.2S1 92.5E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (LEON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 425 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON
072330Z5 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
UPON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 AND 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS WITH THE CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO THE
SOUTHWEST. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT AN UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE IS LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF TC 11S (LEON) CREATING
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM. UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM. TC 11S (LEON) IS
FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD WITHIN THE TROPICAL EASTERLIES THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE
TO VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AFTER THE 36
HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z8 IS
18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z7 (DTG 080751Z1), 081500Z4 (DTG
081351Z8), 082100Z1 (DTG 081951Z4) AND 090300Z2 (DTG 090151Z6).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000208 09:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (LEON) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z4 --- NEAR 17.7S5 91.8E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 17.7S5 91.8E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z7 --- 17.4S2 88.9E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z5 --- 17.5S3 85.8E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z8 --- 18.2S1 82.7E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z7 --- 18.5S4 79.6E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
080900Z7 POSITION NEAR 17.6S4 91.1E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (LEON), HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON
080530Z6 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED UPON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED
TO WEAKEN OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS WITH THE CONVECTION BEING SOLELY
LOCATED ALONG A BAND TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). RECENT SSMI IMAGERY INDICATES SCATTERED CONVECTION
IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES
THAT AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF TC 11S (LEON)
CREATING MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM. UW-
CIMSS ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE
SYSTEM. TC 11S (LEON) IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN ITS WESTWARD TRACK
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH.
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN DUE TO VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 080600Z4 IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 081500Z4 (DTG 081351Z8),
082100Z1 (DTG 081951Z4), 090300Z2 (DTG 090151Z6) AND 090900Z8 (DTG
090751Z2).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000208 15:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (LEON) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z1 --- NEAR 17.2S0 90.4E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2S0 90.4E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z9 --- 16.8S5 87.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z2 --- 16.8S5 83.5E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z1 --- 16.9S6 80.1E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z4 --- 17.1S9 77.5E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
081500Z4 POSITION NEAR 17.1S9 89.6E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (LEON), HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON
081130Z3 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
UPON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS AND THE CONTINUED
DEBILITATING EFFECTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ON THE SYSTEM. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED
WITH ALL THE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT AN UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF TC 11S (LEON) CREATING
MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM. UW-CIMSS
SATELLITE ANALYSIS ALSO INDICATES AN UPPER-LEVEL JET TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM, PROVIDING INCREASINGLY STRONG VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR TO THE SOUTH. TC 11S (LEON) IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN A WESTWARD
TRACK UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS
SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN DUE TO VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z1 IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z1 (DTG
081951Z4), 090300Z2 (DTG 090151Z6), 090900Z8 (DTG 090751Z2) AND
091500Z5 (DTG 091351Z9).//
=========================================================================
TXS31 PGTW 20000208 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (LEON-ELINE) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z7 --- NEAR 17.1S9 89.3E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S9 89.3E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z5 --- 17.0S8 86.5E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z8 --- 16.9S6 83.5E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z7 --- 16.8S5 80.4E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z0 --- 16.8S5 77.2E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z1 --- 16.8S5 71.1E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
082100Z1 POSITION NEAR 17.1S9 88.6E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (LEON-ELINE), HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON
081730Z9 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
UPON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED
FROM THE NORTHEAST. A 081519Z4 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER
(SSMI) PASS DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH AN AREA OF CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH. 200 MB ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS LOCATED JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM CREATING MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE
SYSTEM. TC 11S (LEON-ELINE) WILL TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH.
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY AND LLCC
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TC 11S (LEON-ELINE) IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO A MORE FAVORABLE AREA FOR INTENSIFICATION BETWEEN THE 48 AND 72
HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z7 IS
14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z2 (DTG 090151Z6), 090900Z8 (DTG
090751Z2), 091500Z5 (DTG 091351Z9) AND 092100Z2 (DTG 091951Z5).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000209 09:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (LEON) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z5 --- NEAR 17.7S5 86.3E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 17.7S5 86.3E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z8 --- 17.5S3 83.0E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z7 --- 17.5S3 80.0E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z0 --- 17.5S3 76.9E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z8 --- 17.5S3 74.0E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z9 --- 17.5S3 67.8E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
090900Z8 POSITION NEAR 17.6S4 85.5E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (LEON-ELINEA), HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON
090530Z7 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED UPON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS.
ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED DURING
THE PAST 6 HOURS WITH THE CONVECTION TRYING TO REESTABLISH ITSELF
AROUND THE TIGHTLY WRAPPED, LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). 200
MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS LOCATED OVER
THE SYSTEM IS CREATING MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
INHIBITING THE CONVECTION AND RESTRICTING IT TO THE SOUTH OF THE
LLCC. TC 11S (LEON-ELINEA) WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH. THE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TC 11S
(LEON-ELINEA) IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO A MORE FAVORABLE AREA FOR
INTENSIFICATION BY THE 36 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z5 IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
091500Z5 (DTG 091351Z9), 092100Z2 (DTG 091951Z5), 100300Z4 (DTG
100151Z8) AND 100900Z0 (DTG 100751Z4).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000209 15:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (LEON-ELINE) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z2 --- NEAR 18.3S2 84.5E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 18.3S2 84.5E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z1 --- 18.4S3 81.5E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z4 --- 18.3S2 78.0E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z2 --- 18.2S1 75.0E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z5 --- 18.2S1 71.9E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
091500Z5 POSITION NEAR 18.3S2 83.7E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (LEON-ELINE), HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 18
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON
091130Z4 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED UPON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS AND
RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED ITS TIGHTLY WRAPPED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES MINIMAL CONVECTION
RESTRICTED TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES
THAT AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS LOCATED OVER THE SYSTEM IS CREATING
MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, INHIBITING THE CONVECTION
AND RESTRICTING IT TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLCC. TC 11S (LEON-ELINE)
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN
INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TC 11S (LEON-ELINE) IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO A MORE FAVORABLE AREA FOR INTENSIFICATION BY THE 36
HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z2 IS
18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100300Z4 (DTG 100151Z8) AND 101500Z7 (DTG
101351Z1).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000210 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (LEON-ELINE) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z1 --- NEAR 18.3S2 80.7E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 18.3S2 80.7E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z4 --- 18.3S2 77.4E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z2 --- 18.8S7 74.3E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z5 --- 19.1S1 71.2E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z3 --- 19.0S0 68.0E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
100300Z4 POSITION NEAR 18.3S2 79.9E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (LEON-ELINE), HAS TRACKED TOWARDS THE WEST
AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 092330Z7 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 TO 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHWEST
AND WEST. 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THIS HAS CREATED MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION AND IS PREVENTING THE CONVECTION FROM
BUILDING COMPLETELY BACK OVER THE LLCC. TC 11S (LEON-ELINE) WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY TOWARDS THE WEST UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH.
TC 11S (LEON-ELINE) IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS THEN SLOWLY BEGIN TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER AS VERTICAL
SHEAR AND COLD AIR STRATUS ENTRAINMENT WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z1 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
101500Z7 (DTG 101351Z1) AND 110300Z5 (DTG 110151Z9).
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000210 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (LEON-ELINE) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z4 --- NEAR 18.0S9 78.0E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.0S9 78.0E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z2 --- 18.1S0 75.3E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z5 --- 18.3S2 72.6E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z3 --- 18.5S4 69.9E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
101500Z7 POSITION NEAR 18.0S9 77.3E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (LEON-ELINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 830 NM
EAST OF PORT MATHURIN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 101130Z6 VISIBLE AND
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE AND
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) SITUATED APPROXIMATELY 5 NM INTO THE
CONVECTION. IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS THAT THE CONVECTION IS WEAK AND IS
DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE 100648Z9 TROPICAL RAINFALL MEASURING
MISSION PASS DEPICTS WEAK SPARSE CONVECTION WITH A NARROW CONVECTIVE
BAND LOCATED SOUTHWEST TO WEST OF THE LLCC. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM. MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE LLCC IS HAMPERING
SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, THEREFORE, TC 11S (LEON-ELINE)
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 11S (LEON-
ELINE) WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD WITHIN THE TROPICAL
EASTERLIES UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH. TC 11S (LEON-ELINE) IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND TO BEGIN DISSIPATING NEAR THE
36-HOUR POINT DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z4 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110300Z5 (DTG
110151Z9) AND 111500Z8 (DTG 111351Z2).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000211 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (LEON-ELINE) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z2 --- NEAR 17.6S4 75.3E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S4 75.3E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z5 --- 17.1S9 72.5E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z3 --- 17.0S8 69.6E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z6 --- 17.0S8 66.7E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
110300Z5 POSITION NEAR 17.5S3 74.6E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (LEON-ELINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 680 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT MATHURIN, HAS TRACKED TOWARDS THE WEST AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
102330Z9 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 6 NM NORTH OF THE CONVECTION. TC
11S (LEON-ELINE) HAS TRACKED WITHIN THE STEERING FLOW OF THE BROAD
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO DO SO
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS THE CONVECTION
HAS REMAINED WEAK BUT PERSISTENT. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM AND HAS KEPT
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE LLCC. TC 11S (LEON-ELINE) IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND DISSIPATE OVER
WATER BY THE END OF THE 36-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z2 IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z8 (DTG
111351Z2) AND 120300Z6 (DTG 120151Z0).
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000211 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (LEON-ELINE) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z5 --- NEAR 17.5S3 71.8E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S3 71.8E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z3 --- 17.5S3 68.4E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z6 --- 17.7S5 65.1E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z4 --- 17.7S5 61.7E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
111500Z8 POSITION NEAR 17.5S3 70.9E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (LEON-ELINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT MATHURIN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 111130Z7
VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS RE-
DEVELOPED OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IN THE PAST 8
HOURS WITH THE LLCC ABOUT 15 NM INTO THE CONVECTION. ANIMATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FAIR OUTFLOW IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT OF
TC 11S (LEON-ELINE). UW-CIMSS CHARTS AND THE 200 MB ANALYSIS
INDICATE THAT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS DECREASED SLIGHTLY OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS. TC 11S (LEON-ELINE) SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK WITHIN
THE STEERING FLOW OF THE BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS STILL LOCATED SOUTH OF TC 11S PRODUCING
NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE SYSTEM. TC 11S IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN
INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, HOWEVER, IT SHOULD DISSIPATE
AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AFTER 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z5 IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120300Z6 (DTG
120151Z0) AND 121500Z9 (DTG 121351Z3).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000212 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (LEON-ELINE) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z3 --- NEAR 17.0S8 69.3E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S8 69.3E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z6 --- 16.6S3 66.6E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z4 --- 16.4S1 63.6E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z7 --- 16.3S0 60.7E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z5 --- 16.7S4 57.9E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
120300Z6 POSITION NEAR 16.9S6 68.6E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (LEON-ELINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 375 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT MATHURIN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
112330Z0 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT CONVECTION HAS RE-DEVELOPED
EAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IN THE PAST 12
HOURS. AN 112151Z1 TROPICAL RAINFALL MEASURING MISSION (TRMM) PASS
CONFIRMS THAT THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED IN THE EASTERN
QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FAIR
OUTFLOW IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF TC 11S (LEON-ELINE). UW-
CIMSS CHARTS AND THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR HAS DECREASED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. TC 11S (LEON-
ELINE) WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD DUE TO THE STEERING INFLUENCE
OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. TC 11S IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS THEN FORECAST TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AFTER THE
24 HOUR PERIOD AS IT MOVES INTO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z3 IS 15 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 121500Z9 (DTG 121351Z3) AND 130300Z7 (DTG
130151Z1).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000212 15:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (LEON-ELINE) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
121200Z6 --- NEAR 16.5S2 67.2E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S2 67.2E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z4 --- 16.3S0 64.9E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z7 --- 16.0S7 62.4E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z5 --- 16.2S9 59.1E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z8 --- 16.3S0 55.7E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
121500Z9 POSITION NEAR 16.4S1 66.6E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (LEON-ELINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 290 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT MATHURIN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 121130Z8
VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO
CONSOLIDATE AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IN THE
PAST 12 HOURS. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY CONFIRMS THE CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE IS CONSOLIDATING AROUND THE LLCC. ANIMATED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS FAIR TO GOOD OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHWESTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANTS. UW-CIMSS CHARTS AND THE 200 MB ANALYSIS
INDICATE THAT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO DECREASE IN THE
REGION. TC 11S (LEON-ELINE) WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. TC 11S
(LEON-ELINE)IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS THEN FORECAST TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AFTER THE 24
HOUR PERIOD AS IT MOVES INTO AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z6 IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 130300Z7 (DTG 130151Z1) AND 131500Z0 (DTG 131351Z4).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000213 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (LEON-ELINE) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
130000Z4 --- NEAR 16.0S7 64.5E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S7 64.5E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z7 --- 15.9S5 61.8E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z5 --- 15.8S4 59.1E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z8 --- 15.8S4 56.4E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z6 --- 16.2S9 53.6E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
130300Z7 POSITION NEAR 16.0S7 63.8E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (LEON-ELINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT MATHURIN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 122300Z8 AND
122330Z1 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 AND 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT CONVECTION HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY
DISORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. HOWEVER, WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT GOOD OUTFLOW IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
QUADRANT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE EVIDENT TO THE EAST OF THE
SYSTEM. UW-CIMSS CHARTS AND THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO DECREASE IN THE REGION WITH TC 11S
(LEON-ELINE) LOCATED UNDER THE 200 MB RIDGE AXIS. THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. TC 11S (LEON-ELINE) IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS THEN
FORECAST TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AFTER THE 24 HOUR PERIOD AS IT MOVES
INTO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 130000Z4 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 131500Z0 (DTG 131351Z4) AND
140300Z8 (DTG 140151Z2).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000213 15:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (LEON-ELINE) WARNING NR 025
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z7 --- NEAR 16.1S8 62.6E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S8 62.6E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z5 --- 16.7S4 60.4E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z8 --- 17.8S6 57.6E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z6 --- 18.1S0 54.8E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z9 --- 18.6S5 51.8E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
131500Z0 POSITION NEAR 16.3S0 62.1E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (LEON-ELINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 235 NM
NORTH OF PORT MATHURIN, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 131130Z9
VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 AND 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT CONVECTION HAS REMAINED ORGANIZED ABOUT
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). SYNOPTIC AND MODEL ANALYSES
INDICATES A WEAK TROUGH MOVING OFF THE SOUTHERN AFRICAN CONTINENT,
WHICH IS WEAKENING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM.
THIS WEAKNESS IS CAUSING THE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK IN THE SYSTEM.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT GOOD OUTFLOW IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. UW-CIMSS CHARTS AND THE 200 MB ANALYSIS
INDICATE THAT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS WEAK TO MODERATE WITH TC
11S (LEON-ELINE) LOCATED UNDER THE 200 MB RIDGE AXIS. THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
THE WEAKENED, SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. TC 11S (LEON-ELINE) IS
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THE
SYSTEM IS THEN FORECAST TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AFTER THE 24 HOUR PERIOD
AS IT MOVES INTO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z7 IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140300Z8
(DTG 140151Z2) AND 141500Z1 (DTG 141351Z5).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000214 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (LEON-ELINE) WARNING NR 026
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z5 --- NEAR 17.0S8 60.9E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S8 60.9E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z8 --- 18.2S1 59.2E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z6 --- 19.0S0 57.2E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z9 --- 19.8S8 55.1E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z7 --- 20.6S8 53.0E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
140300Z8 POSITION NEAR 17.3S1 60.5E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (LEON-ELINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM
NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 132300Z9 INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 AND 77 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS TC 11S (LEON-ELINE) HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. A 132101Z8 TROPICAL RAINFALL MEASURING MISSION (TRMM)
REVEALED A 12 NM EYE. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS GOOD
OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS. SYNOPTIC AND MODEL ANALYSES INDICATE A
TROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM THAT IS WEAKENING THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THIS WEAKNESS IS CAUSING THE WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK OF TC 11S (LEON-ELINE). TC 11S (LEON-ELINE) WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
THE WEAKENED, SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. UW-CIMSS CHARTS AND
THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS WEAK
TO MODERATE OVER THE SYSTEM. TC 11S (LEON-ELINE) IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY AT SLIGHTLY LESS THAN A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z5 IS 26
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141500Z1 (DTG 141351Z5) AND 150300Z9 (DTG
150151Z3).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000214 15:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (LEON-ELINE) WARNING NR 027
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
141200Z8 --- NEAR 18.2S1 58.6E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S1 58.6E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z6 --- 19.2S2 56.4E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z9 --- 19.9S9 53.9E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z7 --- 20.3S5 51.7E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z0 --- 20.6S8 49.2E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
060 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
141500Z1 POSITION NEAR 18.5S4 58.1E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (LEON-ELINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 135 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
141130Z0 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 AND 77
KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TC 11S (LEON-ELINE)
HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, AS IT MOVES INTO AN AREA
OF INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. A 140500Z0 SSMI IMAGE DEPICTS A
WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH CONVECTION
SHEARED TO THE SOUTH. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS GOOD
OUTFLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST. SYNOPTIC AND MODEL ANALYSES INDICATE A
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM THAT IS WEAKENING
THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, AS WELL
AS ENHANCING WEST-NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. THIS WEAKNESS IS
CAUSING THE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK OF TC 11S (LEON-ELINE), AS WELL
AS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM. UW-CIMSS CHARTS
AND THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS
INCREASED SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. TC 11S (LEON-ELINE) IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS DUE TO THE STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT CAUSED BY THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. TC 11S (LEON-ELINE)
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE WEAKENED, SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. TC 11S
(LEON-ELINE) WILL BEGIN TO MOVE MORE WESTWARD AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS
AND IS STEERED BY THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL RIDGE, WHERE THE INFLUENCE
FROM THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL NOT BE AS SIGNIFICANT.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z8 IS 26 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 150300Z9 (DTG 150151Z3) AND 151500Z2 (DTG 151351Z6).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000215 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (LEON-ELINE) WARNING NR 028
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z6 --- NEAR 18.6S5 57.1E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 18.6S5 57.1E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z9 --- 19.2S2 55.4E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z7 --- 19.8S8 53.5E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z0 --- 20.3S5 51.5E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z8 --- 21.2S5 49.6E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
150300Z9 POSITION NEAR 18.8S7 56.7E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (LEON-ELINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF REUNION ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
142330Z3 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 AND 77 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS VARIED IN BOTH
INTENSITY AND AREAL EXTENT OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. IMAGERY ALSO
SHOWS THAT TC 11S HAS WEAKENED OVERALL IN THE PAST 6 HOURS, BUT DEEP
CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). HOWEVER, DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED
RECENTLY JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC. A 142045Z6 TROPICAL RAINFALL
MEASURING MISSION PASS DEPICTS WHAT APPEARS TO BE A PARTIAL EYEWALL
WITH A CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST OF THE LLCC.
UW-CIMSS CHARTS INDICATE THAT TC 11S (LEON-ELINE) IS UNDER WEAK TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SYNOPTIC DATA CONTINUES TO DEPICT A
WELL-DEFINED LLCC WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS SOUTH OF THE LLCC. TC 11S
(LEON-ELINE) SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH
THROUGH THE PERIOD. TC 11S (LEON-ELINE) IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS DUE TO THE INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z6 IS 26 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 151500Z2 (DTG 151351Z6) AND 160300Z0 (DTG
160151Z4).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000215 15:00z COR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (LEON-ELINE) WARNING NR 029A CORRECTED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z9 --- NEAR 19.0S0 55.6E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 19.0S0 55.6E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z7 --- 19.5S5 53.9E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z0 --- 20.1S3 52.3E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z8 --- 20.7S9 50.8E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z1 --- 21.4S7 49.0E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
151500Z2 POSITION NEAR 19.1S1 55.2E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (LEON-ELINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 115 NM
NORTH OF REUNION ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 151130Z1
VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65 KNOTS. ANIMATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS REMAINED STEADY
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND INDICATES ONLY SLIGHT WEAKENING OF TC 11S
(LEON-ELINE). UW-CIMSS CHARTS INDICATE THAT TC 11S (LEON-ELINE) IS
UNDER WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SYNOPTIC DATA CONTINUES
TO DEPICT A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS SOUTH OF THE LLCC. TC 11S (LEON-ELINE) IS
FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. TC 11S (LEON-ELINE) IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY DURING
THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS IT EXPERIENCES GREATER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z9 IS 24 FEET.
JUSTIFICATION FOR COR: TO CORRECT THE SATELLITE IMAGERY TIME FOR
WHICH THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z0 (DTG
160151Z4) AND 161500Z3 (DTG 161351Z7).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000216 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (LEON-ELINE) WARNING NR 030
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z7 --- NEAR 20.0S2 54.1E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0S2 54.1E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z0 --- 20.5S7 52.5E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z8 --- 21.0S3 50.8E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z1 --- 21.4S7 49.2E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
040 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z9 --- 21.4S7 47.6E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
160300Z0 POSITION NEAR 20.1S3 53.7E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (LEON-ELINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 100 NM
NORTHWEST OF REUNION ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 152330Z4
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN IRREGULAR 12 NM EYE SURROUNDED BY DEEP
CONVECTION FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE EAST. IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS THAT
THE CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT HAS WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY
AND DISSIPATED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY
AIR WEST OF TC 11S ENTRAINING INTO THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE
SYSTEM. UW-CIMSS CHARTS INDICATE THAT TC 11S (LEON-ELINE) IS UNDER
WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 11S IS FORECAST TO TRACK
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH THROUGH 36 HOURS, THEN TO TRACK MORE
WESTWARD AS THE RIDGE BUILDS SLIGHTLY NORTH OVER SOUTHERN
MADAGASCAR. THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT IS NOT EXPECTED
TO IMPACT THE SYSTEM SIGNIFICANTLY, BUT WILL SERVE TO HINDER FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. TC 11S (LEON-ELINE) IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN
THROUGH 36 HOURS AS IT ENCOUNTERS SLIGHTLY INCREASING SHEAR, THEN TO
DISSIPATE OVER LAND NEAR THE 48 HOUR POINT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 160000Z7 IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161500Z3 (DTG
161351Z7) AND 170300Z1 (DTG 170151Z5).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000216 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (LEON-ELINE) WARNING NR 031
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
161200Z0 --- NEAR 20.5S7 52.1E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 20.5S7 52.1E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z8 --- 20.9S1 50.5E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z1 --- 21.1S4 49.3E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
040 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z9 --- 21.2S5 48.2E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z2 --- 21.2S5 47.1E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
161500Z3 POSITION NEAR 20.6S8 51.7E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (LEON-ELINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF REUNION ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 161130Z2
INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR ENTRAINING INTO THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. UW-
CIMSS CHARTS INDICATE THAT TC 11S (LEON-ELINE) IS UNDER WEAK TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 11S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH THROUGH 24 HOURS, THEN MORE
WESTWARD AS THE RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD THE NORTH OVER SOUTHERN
MADAGASCAR. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL BEFORE THE 36
HOUR FORECAST POSITION. THE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL NOT IMPACT
TC11S SIGNIFICANTLY, THOUGH IT WILL SERVE TO HINDER FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. TC 11S (LEON-ELINE) IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN
THROUGH 24 HOURS AS IT ENCOUNTERS SLIGHTLY INCREASING SHEAR. THE
SYSTEM IS THEN FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z0 IS 24
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170300Z1 (DTG 170151Z5) AND 171500Z4 (DTG
171351Z8).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000217 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (LEON-ELINE) WARNING NR 032
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z8 --- NEAR 20.1S3 51.1E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 20.1S3 51.1E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z1 --- 19.9S9 50.1E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z9 --- 19.7S7 49.0E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
040 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z2 --- 19.7S7 48.1E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z0 --- 19.7S7 47.3E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
170300Z1 POSITION NEAR 20.0S2 50.8E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (LEON-ELINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM
EAST OF THE CENTRAL EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 162330Z5 AND 162300Z2 INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE
SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT IN ALL QUADRANTS. UW-CIMSS CHARTS
INDICATE THAT TC 11S (LEON-ELINE) IS UNDER WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
TC 11S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO MAKE LANDFALL AFTER THE 24 HOUR FORECAST POSITION. TC 11S (LEON-
ELINE) IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH 24 HOURS AS IT BEGINS
TO INTERACT WITH LAND. THE SYSTEM IS THEN FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER
LAND BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 170000Z8 IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 171500Z4 (DTG
171351Z8) AND 180300Z2 (DTG 180151Z6).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000217 15:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (LEON-ELINE) WARNING NR 033
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z1 --- NEAR 20.0S2 49.5E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
080 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0S2 49.5E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z9 --- 20.0S2 48.3E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
055 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z2 --- 19.9S9 46.6E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
040 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z0 --- 20.2S4 44.6E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z3 --- 21.2S5 42.8E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
171500Z4 POSITION NEAR 20.0S2 49.2E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (LEON-ELINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 30 NM
EAST OF THE CENTRAL EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 171130Z3 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 77 AND 90 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS
THAT THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, PEAKING
APPROXIMATELY 06 HOURS AGO NEAR 85 KNOTS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT IN ALL QUADRANTS. UW-CIMSS CHARTS INDICATE THAT
TC 11S (LEON-ELINE) IS UNDER WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 11S IS
FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH, THEN BEGIN A MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK
AFTER IT HAS CROSSED MADAGASCAR. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE
LANDFALL WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. TC 11S (LEON-ELINE) IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN THROUGH 36 HOURS AS IT MOVES OVER LAND. THE SYSTEM HAS
POTENTIAL TO REINTENSIFY AS IT MOVES INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z1 IS 26 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 180300Z2 (DTG 180151Z6) AND 181500Z5 (DTG 181351Z9).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000218 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (LEON-ELINE) WARNING NR 034
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z9 --- NEAR 19.2S2 47.8E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
065 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2S2 47.8E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z2 --- 19.2S2 46.2E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
050 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z0 --- 19.7S7 44.6E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
035 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z3 --- 20.3S5 42.8E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z2 --- 21.4S7 40.8E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
180300Z2 POSITION NEAR 19.2S2 47.4E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (LEON-ELINE) HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 172300Z3 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65
KNOTS. TC 11S (LEON-ELINE) MADE LANDFALL AT APPROXIMATELY 171500Z4
NEAR MAHANORO, MADAGASCAR WITH AN ESTIMATED INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS.
ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH LAND. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL
SHOWS GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT IN ALL QUADRANTS. TC 11S IS FORECAST TO
TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH THE 12 HOUR PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH, THEN BEGIN A MORE
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AS THE RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST. TC 11S
(LEON-ELINE) IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING THROUGH 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES OVER MADAGASCAR AND INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. THE
SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REINTENSIFY AS IT MOVES INTO THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AFTER THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z9 IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
181500Z5 (DTG 181351Z9) AND 190300Z3 (DTG 190151Z7).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000218 15:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (LEON-ELINE) WARNING NR 035
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z2 --- NEAR 19.5S5 44.8E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5S5 44.8E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z0 --- 20.0S2 42.5E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z3 --- 20.9S1 40.4E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z2 --- 22.0S4 38.0E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z5 --- 22.0S4 35.6E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
055 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
181500Z5 POSITION NEAR 19.6S6 44.2E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (LEON-ELINE) HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
181130Z4 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 35
KNOTS. TC 11S (LEON-ELINE) WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND AS IT CROSSED MADAGASCAR.
ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THE SYSTEM MOVING OFF LAND, INTO
THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL INDICATES GOOD
OUTFLOW ALOFT IN ALL QUADRANTS. TC 11S (LEON-ELINE) IS FORECAST TO
TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH. THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO REINTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AS IT CONTINUES
INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
181200Z2 IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190300Z3 (DTG 190151Z7) AND
191500Z6 (DTG 191351Z0).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000219 03:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (LEON-ELINE) WARNING NR 036
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z0 --- NEAR 20.1S3 43.2E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.1S3 43.2E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z3 --- 20.6S8 41.6E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z2 --- 21.4S7 39.9E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z5 --- 22.3S7 38.1E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z3 --- 22.5S9 36.1E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
060 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
190300Z3 POSITION NEAR 20.2S4 42.8E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (LEON-ELINE) HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS, AND IS LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 80 NM WEST OF MORONDAVA, MADAGASCAR. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 182330Z7 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND
35 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT
ORGANIZATION HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE TC 11S MOVED INTO THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL WITH THE PRIMARY SPIRAL CONVECTIVE BAND NORTH OF
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). AN 181816Z5 SPECIAL SENSOR
MICROWAVE IMAGER PASS ALSO DEPICTS A SOLID CONVECTIVE BAND ABOUT 70
NM NORTH OF THE LLCC. THE 200MB ANALYSIS INDICATES GOOD DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT OVER THE SYSTEM. UW-CIMSS CHARTS INDICATE THAT TC 11S IS UNDER
WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 11S (LEON-ELINE) IS FORECAST TO TRACK
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH 36 HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH. THE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO MOZAMBIQUE AFTER 24 HOURS, ALLOWING TC 11S
(LEON-ELINE) TO TRACK MORE WESTWARD. TC 11S IS EXPECTED TO RE-
INTENSIFY AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE WITHIN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z0 IS
10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 191500Z6 (DTG 191351Z0) AND 200300Z5 (DTG
200151Z9).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000219 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (LEON-ELINE) WARNING NR 037
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z3 --- NEAR 20.9S1 41.9E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.9S1 41.9E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z2 --- 22.0S4 40.7E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z5 --- 22.8S2 39.1E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z3 --- 23.3S8 37.3E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z6 --- 23.5S0 35.4E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
025 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
070 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
191500Z6 POSITION NEAR 21.2S5 41.6E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (LEON-ELINE) HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS AND IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MORONDAVA, MADAGASCAR. THE WARNING POSITION IS
BASED ON 191130Z5 INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35
KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY ORGANIZE AND WRAP AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) AS THE SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. THE
200MB ANALYSIS INDICATES GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WITH WEAK VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION. TC 11S (LEON-ELINE) IS FORECAST TO
TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE INITIAL 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO
MOZAMBIQUE AFTER 24 HOURS, ALLOWING TC 11S (LEON-ELINE) TO TRACK
MORE TOWARDS THE WEST. TC 11S IS EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY AT A NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z4 IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
200300Z5 (DTG 200151Z9) AND 201500Z8 (DTG 201351Z2).
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000220 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (LEON-ELINE) WARNING NR 038
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z2 --- NEAR 22.0S4 40.7E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 22.0S4 40.7E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z5 --- 22.8S2 39.1E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z3 --- 23.3S8 37.3E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z6 --- 23.3S8 35.4E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
050 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z4 --- 22.9S3 34.0E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
200300Z5 POSITION NEAR 22.2S6 40.3E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (LEON-ELINE) HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS AND IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF INHAMBANE, MOZAMBIQUE. THE WARNING POSITION IS
BASED ON 192330Z8 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SLOWLY IMPROVING ORGANIZATION OF THE
CONVECTION WITH A BROKEN SPIRAL BAND EAST WRAPPING INTO THE
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS SOME
INDICATIONS THAT TC 11S IS BEING SHEARED WITH FLUCTUATING
CONVECTION, BUT STILL HAS GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. A 192007Z9 TROPICAL
RAINFALL MEASURING MISSION PASS SHOWS WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CLOUD
LINES NORTH OF THE LLCC WITH DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN QUADRANTS. THE UW-CIMSS CHARTS ALSO INDICATE
THAT TC 11S (LEON-ELINE) IS UNDER WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WEAK TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE UPPER-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. TC 11S IS CURRENTLY UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS SOUTH OF
MADAGASCAR WESTWARD OVER SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE. THE MODELS ARE
CURRENTLY FORECASTING THE APPROACH OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH JUST
EAST OF SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE WHICH WILL WEAKEN THE RIDGE NEAR THE 24
HOUR POINT. TC 11S (LEON-ELINE) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THIS WEAKNESS, BUT WILL TURN WESTWARD AFTER 36
HOURS AS THE RIDGE REFORMS TO ITS SOUTH. TC 11S IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE UNDER GENERALLY FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z2 IS 15 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 201500Z8 (DTG 201351Z2) AND 210300Z6 (DTG
210151Z0).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000220 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (LEON-ELINE) WARNING NR 039
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
201200Z5 --- NEAR 22.4S8 37.9E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 22.4S8 37.9E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z3 --- 22.4S8 35.9E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
080 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z6 --- 22.3S7 34.2E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z4 --- 22.1S5 32.6E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
201500Z8 POSITION NEAR 22.4S8 37.4E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (LEON-ELINE) HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS AND IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF INHAMBANE, MOZAMBIQUE. THE WARNING POSITION IS
BASED ON 201100Z4 AND 201130Z7 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE
SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH DEEP PERSISTENT
CONVECTION LOCATED OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UW-CIMSS
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 11S (LEON-ELINE) IS UNDER WEAK VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR WITH GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. TC 11S (LEON-ELINE) IS FORECAST
TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS
BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL BETWEEN THE 12 AND 24 HOUR FORECAST POSITION.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AS IT INTERACTS WITH LAND.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z5 IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 210300Z6 (DTG 210151Z0) AND 211500Z9 (DTG 211351Z3).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000221 03:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (LEON-ELINE) WARNING NR 040
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
210000Z3 --- NEAR 21.9S2 37.1E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 21.9S2 37.1E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z6 --- 21.5S8 35.6E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
030 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
090 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z4 --- 21.2S5 34.1E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z7 --- 20.5S7 32.6E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
210300Z6 POSITION NEAR 21.8S1 36.7E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (LEON-ELINE) HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS AND IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 NM
NORTHEAST OF INHAMBANE, MOZAMBIQUE. THE WARNING POSITION IS
BASED ON 202330Z0 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65 KNOTS. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO
INTENSIFY WITH TIGHTLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS THAT
OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED SLIGHTLY. A 202031Z8 TROPICAL RAINFALL
MEASURING MISSION (TRMM) PASS DEPICTS IMPROVED ORGANIZATION AND VERY
GOOD LOW-LEVEL INFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS. UW-CIMSS CHARTS ALSO SHOW AN
IMPROVED ENVIRONMENT WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SOUTHEAST OF TC 11S
THAT APPEARS TO BE ENHANCING SYSTEM OUTFLOW AS WELL AS WEAK VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM. TC 11S (LEON-ELINE) IS FORECAST TO TRACK
WESTWARD THEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS
BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL BETWEEN THE 12 AND 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AS IT INTERACTS WITH LAND.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z3 IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 211500Z9 (DTG 211351Z3) AND 220300Z7 (DTG 220151Z1).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000221 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (LEON-ELINE) WARNING NR 041
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
211200Z6 --- NEAR 21.4S7 36.5E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
080 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 21.4S7 36.5E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z4 --- 21.2S5 35.4E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
025 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
080 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z7 --- 21.1S4 34.4E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
045 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z5 --- 21.1S4 33.3E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
211500Z9 POSITION NEAR 21.4S7 36.2E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (LEON-ELINE) HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS AND IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF INHAMBANE, MOZAMBIQUE. THE WARNING POSITION IS
BASED ON 211100Z5 AND 211130Z8 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 65 AND 77 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS
THAT THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY WITH TIGHTLY CURVED
CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) AND FAVORABLE UPPERLEVEL OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS. UW-CIMSS
CHARTS DEPICT FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM. TC 11S
(LEON-ELINE) IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY
DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL BETWEEN THE 12 AND
24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AS
IT INTERACTS WITH LAND. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z6
IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220300Z7 (DTG 220151Z1) AND 221500Z0
(DTG 221351Z4). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FELICIA) WARNINGS
(WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000222 03:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (LEON-ELINE) WARNING NR 042
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z4 --- NEAR 20.9S1 35.8E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
070 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 20.9S1 35.8E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z7 --- 20.5S7 35.1E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
070 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z5 --- 19.5S5 34.0E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
045 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z8 --- 18.8S7 32.8E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
220300Z7 POSITION NEAR 20.8S0 35.6E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (LEON-ELINE) HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
03 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS AND IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 NM
SOUTHEAST OF BEIRA, MOZAMBIQUE. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
212230Z0 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 AND 102 KNOTS. ANIMATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY
WITH A WELL-DEFINED 32 NM EYE. MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICTS CONCENTRIC
EYEWALL FEATURES WITH STRONG RAINBANDS. THE UPPERLEVEL OUTFLOW IS
GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS. UW-CIMSS CHARTS DEPICT FAVORABLE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM. TC 11S (LEON-ELINE) IS FORECAST TO TRACK
NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS BEFORE
MAKING LANDFALL BETWEEN THE 12 AND 24 HOUR PERIOD. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN BEGIN TO DISSIPATE RAPIDLY AS IT INTERACTS WITH LAND. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z4 IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
221500Z0 (DTG 221351Z4) AND 230300Z8 (DTG 230151Z2). REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FELICIA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000222 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (LEON-ELINE) WARNING NR 043
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
221200Z7 --- NEAR 20.5S7 34.3E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
025 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
080 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 20.5S7 34.3E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z5 --- 20.3S5 33.4E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
015 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
060 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z8 --- 20.2S4 32.6E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
035 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z6 --- 20.0S2 31.8E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
221500Z0 POSITION NEAR 20.4S6 34.1E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (LEON-ELINE) HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS AND IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 50 NM
SOUTHWEST OF BEIRA, MOZAMBIQUE. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
221030Z8 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 KNOTS. THE
SYSTEM BEGAN MAKING LANDFALL ABOUT 40 NM SOUTH OF BEIRA AROUND
220300Z7 WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 115 KNOTS. TC 11S (LEON-ELINE) IS
FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE TO INTERACTION
WITH LAND AND SHOULD DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z7 IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 230300Z8 (DTG 230151Z2) AND 231500Z1 (DTG 231351Z5).
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FELICIA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000223 03:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (LEON-ELINE) WARNING NR 044
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
230000Z5 --- NEAR 19.5S5 31.5E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE AND
EXTRAPOLATION.
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5S5 31.5E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z8 --- 19.3S3 29.6E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
230300Z8 POSITION NEAR 19.4S4 31.0E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (LEON-ELINE) HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS AND HAS MOVED INTO
EASTERN ZIMBABWE. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 222200Z8 INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND EXTRAPOLATION. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 TO 55 KNOTS. TC 11S (LEON-
ELINE) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AND DISSIPATE OVER SOUTHERN AFRICA BY THE END OF THE 12 HOUR
FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 12S (FELICIA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
|
Document: leon.htm
Updated: 26th December 2006 |
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