[Index]
Tropical Cyclone JOHN
[Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere][Summaries and Track Data]
| Tropical
Cyclones
[Index] |
Tropical Cyclone JOHN [Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere][Summaries and Track Data] |
WTXS21 PGTW 19991211 05:00z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 110451Z DEC 99//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/100451Z DEC 99//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 100500)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 180 NM RADIUS OF 13.4S8 120.6E9 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 110230Z7 INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.0S4 120.3E6. THE SYSTEM IS
QUASI-STATIONARY AT 00 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THIS SUPERSEDES REF A. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER IMAGE
REVEALED A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
NEARBY SHIP REPORTS CONFIRMING 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS. ANIMATED VISIBLE
AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT PERSISTENT BUT STILL
DISORGANIZED CONVECTION AROUND THE CIRCULATION WITH UW-CIMSS WIND
SHEAR PRODUCTS SHOWING WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS THE
REGION. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS FAIR OUTFLOW ALOFT.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 120500Z8.
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 19991211 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z1 --- NEAR 13.6S0 119.8E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.6S0 119.8E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z9 --- 14.6S1 118.9E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z2 --- 15.5S1 118.2E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z0 --- 16.5S2 117.6E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z3 --- 17.5S3 117.0E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
112100Z5 POSITION NEAR 13.9S3 119.6E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S, APPROXIMATELY 250 NM NORTHWEST OF
THE KIMBERLEY COAST, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS DURING
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 111730Z3 INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CONSOLIDATION OF DEEP CONVECTION FROM THE
NORTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. SYNOPTIC DATA
INDICATES A SYMMETRIC WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. TC 02S
IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE MID-LEVEL
STEERING FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED OVER AUSTRALIA. TC
02S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z1 IS 14 FEET.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS NAVPACMETOCCEN 110451Z DEC 99
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 110500 ) NEXT WARNINGS
AT 120900Z2 (DTG 120751Z6) AND 122100Z6 (DTG 121951Z9). REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ILSA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 19991212 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z9 --- NEAR 14.3S8 119.2E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S8 119.2E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z2 --- 14.9S4 118.8E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z0 --- 15.7S3 118.3E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
105 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z3 --- 16.6S3 117.7E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z1 --- 17.7S5 117.2E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
120900Z2 POSITION NEAR 14.4S9 119.1E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (JOHN), APPROXIMATELY 350 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
AND INTENSIFIED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS
BASED ON 120530Z1 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 TO 65 KNOTS.
ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CONTINUED CONSOLIDATION
OF BANDED DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT WITH A
DEVELOPING ANTICYCLONE ABOVE THE SYSTEM. TC 02S (JOHN) IS FORECAST
TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED OVER NORTHERN AUSTRALIA. TC 02S
(JOHN) IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST OF
NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND INTERACTION WITH
LAND MAY BEGIN TO INHIBIT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z6 (DTG
121951Z9) AND 130900Z3 (DTG 130751Z7). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S
(ILSA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 19991212 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (JOHN) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z2 --- NEAR 15.6S2 119.1E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
105 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S2 119.1E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z0 --- 16.5S2 118.7E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z3 --- 17.3S1 118.2E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z1 --- 18.3S2 117.8E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
135 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z4 --- 19.2S2 117.4E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
135 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z5 --- 21.3S6 116.8E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
050 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
125 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
122100Z6 POSITION NEAR 15.8S4 119.0E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (JOHN), APPROXIMATELY 260 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF THE EIGHTY MILE BEACH, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 121730Z4 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS. A
121130Z8 TROPICAL RAINFALL MEASURING MISSION (TRMM) PASS DEPICTED A
TIGHTLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND SURROUNDING A 20 NM CLOUD-FILLED EYE.
THE DEEP CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE ABOUT 25 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 200 MB
ANALYSIS INDICATE A DEVELOPED UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE SITUATED OVER
THE SYSTEM. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS FEEDER BANDS MOVING
OVER THE EIGHTY MILE BEACH. TC 02S (JOHN) IS FORECAST TO TRACK
GENERALLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. THE MID-LEVEL
HIGH IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS BEFORE MOVING
NORTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN TERRITORY. TC 02S (JOHN) IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH 36 HOURS. AS THE
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST OF NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA, SOME DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT AND INTERACTION WITH LAND SHOULD BEGIN TO INHIBIT
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. AS TC 02S (JOHN) MOVES ONSHORE AROUND 150600Z2,
SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130300Z7 (DTG
130151Z1), 130900Z3 (DTG 130751Z7), 131500Z0 (DTG 131351Z4) AND
132100Z7 (DTG 131951Z0). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ILSA)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 19991213 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (JOHN) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
130000Z4 --- NEAR 16.2S9 119.0E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
105 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S9 119.0E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z7 --- 17.1S9 118.7E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z5 --- 18.0S9 118.2E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
130 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z8 --- 18.9S8 117.8E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
135 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z6 --- 19.9S9 117.4E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
135 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z7 --- 21.6S9 117.1E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
020 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
080 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
130300Z7 POSITION NEAR 16.4S1 118.9E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (JOHN), APPROXIMATELY 235 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF THE EIGHTY MILE BEACH, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 122330Z1 INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55
AND 70 KNOTS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS MORE THAN
FOUR-FIFTHS OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS SURROUNDED BY
DEEP EYEWALL CONVECTIVE BANDING. OUTER DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE OVER THE EIGHTY MILE BEACH. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND 200 MB ANALYSIS REVEAL A WELL DEVELOPED UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SYSTEM. TC 02S (JOHN) IS FORECAST TO TRACK
GENERALLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. THE MID-LEVEL
HIGH IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS BEFORE MOVING
NORTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN TERRITORY. TC 02S (JOHN) IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH 36 HOURS. AS THE
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST OF NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA, SOME DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT AND INTERACTION WITH LAND SHOULD BEGIN TO INHIBIT
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. AS TC 02S (JOHN) MOVES ONSHORE AROUND 150600Z2,
SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 130000Z4 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130900Z3 (DTG
130751Z7), 131500Z0 (DTG 131351Z4), 132100Z7 (DTG 131951Z0) AND
140300Z8 (DTG 140151Z2). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ILSA)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 19991213 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (JOHN) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z7 --- NEAR 17.2S0 118.2E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
125 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2S0 118.2E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z5 --- 18.3S2 117.7E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER LAND
130 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z8 --- 19.4S4 117.3E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER LAND
070 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER LAND
130 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z6 --- 20.6S8 117.1E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER LAND
055 NM ELSEWHERE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER LAND
110 NM ELSEWHERE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z9 --- 22.0S4 117.3E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER LAND
055 NM ELSEWHERE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z0 --- 24.3S9 118.8E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
131500Z0 POSITION NEAR 17.5S3 118.1E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (JOHN), APPROXIMATELY 185 NM NORTH OF
PORT HEDLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS DURING THE
PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 131130Z9 INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 KNOTS. TC 02S (JOHN) HAS RAPIDLY
INTENSIFIED AND RETAINED ROUGHLY A 20 NM EYE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY REVEALS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION WITH
GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND AN OVERALL SYMMETRIC APPREARANCE. TC 02S
(JOHN) IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE
MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED OVER
NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA. THOUGH THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWED SLIGHTLY DURING
THE PAST 6 HOURS, TC 02S (JOHN) IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR
PORT WALCOTT AROUND THE 36 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD AND BEGIN TURNING
SOUTH THEN SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER INLAND.
TC 02S (JOHN) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. AFTERWARDS, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND INTERACTION WITH LAND
WILL INHIBIT CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION. ONCE INLAND, TC 02S (JOHN)
IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND BEGIN DISSIPATING AS IT CONTINUES
TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z
IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z7 (DTG 131951Z0), 140300Z8 (DTG
140151Z2), 140900Z4 (DTG 140751Z8) AND 141500Z1 (DTG 141351Z5).
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ILSA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 19991213 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (JOHN) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z3 --- NEAR 17.7S5 118.0E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 17.7S5 118.0E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z1 --- 18.6S5 117.6E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
130 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z4 --- 19.7S7 117.2E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
060 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
125 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z2 --- 20.8S0 117.0E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
055 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
115 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z5 --- 21.9S2 116.8E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER LAND
050 NM ELSEWHERE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z6 --- 23.9S4 117.3E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
132100Z7 POSITION NEAR 17.9S7 117.9E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (JOHN), APPROXIMATELY 180 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF PORT WALCOTT, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
131730Z5 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 AND 115 KNOTS.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TC 02S HAS INTENSIFIED
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS WITH A 20 NM DIAMETER EYE. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT, ESPECIALLY
NORTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). TC 02S (JOHN)
IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED OVER
NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA. TC 02S (JOHN) HAS SLOWED SLIGHTLY DURING THE
PAST 6 HOURS, BUT IS STILL EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR PORT
WALCOTT AROUND THE 36 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER LANDFALL, TC 02S
(JOHN) SHOULD BEGIN TURNING SOUTH THEN SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER INLAND. TC 02S (JOHN) IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN
INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AND TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT
APPROACHES LAND DUE TO DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. AFTER 36 HOURS, TC 02S
(JOHN) SHOULD RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND AND
CONTINUED DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
131800Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140300Z8 (DTG 140151Z2),
140900Z4 (DTG 140751Z8), 141500Z1 (DTG 141351Z5) AND 142100Z8 (DTG
141951Z1). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ILSA) WARNINGS (WTXS31
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 19991214 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (JOHN) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z5 --- NEAR 18.2S1 117.7E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
135 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S1 117.7E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z8 --- 19.3S3 117.3E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
070 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
135 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z6 --- 20.4S6 117.1E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
065 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
125 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z9 --- 21.4S7 116.9E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
055 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
075 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z7 --- 22.3S7 116.8E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z8 --- 23.8S3 117.3E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
140300Z8 POSITION NEAR 18.5S4 117.6E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (JOHN), APPROXIMATELY 140 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
132330Z2 INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115
KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT TC 02S
(JOHN) HAS INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, AND HAS A
ROUND 30 NM DIAMETER EYE SURROUNDED BY A CONCENTRIC EYEWALL.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT,
ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), AS
WELL AS DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. TC 02S (JOHN) IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED OVER NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA. TC 02S IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR PORT WALCOTT AFTER THE 24 HOUR
FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER LANDFALL, TC 02S (JOHN) SHOULD BEGIN TRACKING
SOUTH THEN SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER INLAND.
TC 02S (JOHN) IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS, AND TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES LAND DUE TO
INCREASING DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. AFTER 24 HOURS, TC 02S (JOHN) SHOULD
RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND AND CONTINUED DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 16 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 140900Z4 (DTG 140751Z8), 141500Z1 (DTG 141351Z5),
142100Z8 (DTG 141951Z1) AND 150300Z9 (DTG 150151Z3). REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ILSA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 19991214 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (JOHN) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z1 --- NEAR 18.7S6 117.5E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
140 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7S6 117.5E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z4 --- 19.9S9 117.2E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
070 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
140 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z2 --- 20.9S1 117.3E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
065 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
125 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z5 --- 22.0S4 117.6E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
075 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z3 --- 23.5S0 118.4E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
140900Z4 POSITION NEAR 19.0S0 117.4E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (JOHN) HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
05 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
140530Z3 INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115
AND 127 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICT TC 02S (JOHN) HAS INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS,
AND HAS A ROUND 30 NM DIAMETER EYE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. AN AREA OF DRY AIR IS ALSO
EVIDENT IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. TC 02S (JOHN) IS FORECAST TO
TRACK SOUTHWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED OVER NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA. TC 02S IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR POINT SAMSON NEAR THE 24 HOUR
FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER LANDFALL, TC 02S (JOHN) SHOULD BEGIN TRACKING
INCREASINGLY SOUTHEASTWARD AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. TC 02S
(JOHN)IS FORECAST TO INTENSITY SLIGHTLY FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS, AND TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES INLAND DUE TO INCREASING
DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT INTERACTION WITH LAND. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 140600Z1 IS 20 FEET. REFER TO WWPW30 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL
SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141500Z1 (DTG 141351Z5),
142100Z8 (DTG 141951Z1), 150300Z9 (DTG 150151Z), AND 150900Z5 (DTG
150751Z9). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ILSA) WARNINGS (WTXS31
PGTW)FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 19991214 15:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (JOHN) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
141200Z8 --- NEAR 19.5S5 117.3E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
070 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
120 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5S5 117.3E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z6 --- 20.9S1 117.4E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 035 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
060 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
110 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z9 --- 21.8S1 117.6E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
055 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
090 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z7 --- 22.9S3 117.9E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z0 --- 23.9S4 118.5E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
141500Z1 POSITION NEAR 19.8S8 117.3E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (JOHN) HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
141130Z0 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 127 KNOTS. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TC 02S (JOHN) HAS INTENSIFIED
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, AND HAS A ROUND 25 NM DIAMETER EYE. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. PORT
HEDLAND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES A VERY STRONG EYEWALL ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SYSTEM. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN ELONGATION OF THE
SYSTEM ALONG A NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST AXIS. AN AREA OF DRY AIR IS
REMAINS EVIDENT IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. TC 02S (JOHN) IS
FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED OVER NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA. TC 02S
IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR POINT SAMSON NEAR THE 12 HOUR
FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER LANDFALL, TC 02S (JOHN) WILL TRACK
INCREASINGLY SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER INLAND. TC
02S (JOHN) IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY UNTIL LANDFALL, THEN
WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES INLAND DUE TO INCREASING DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT AND INTERACTION WITH LAND. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 141200Z8 IS 22 FEET. REFER TO WWPW30 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL
SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 142100Z8 (DTG 141951Z1),
150300Z9 (DTG 150151Z3), 150900Z5 (DTG 150751Z9) AND 151500Z2 (DTG
151351Z6). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ILSA) WARNINGS (WTXS31
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 19991214 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (JOHN) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z4 --- NEAR 20.1S3 117.3E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
070 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
120 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 20.1S3 117.3E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z2 --- 21.5S8 117.3E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
060 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
110 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z5 --- 22.7S1 117.5E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z3 --- 23.6S1 117.9E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z6 --- 24.5S1 118.3E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
142100Z8 POSITION NEAR 20.4S6 117.3E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (JOHN) HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 6 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 141730Z6
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 127 KNOTS. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TC 02S (JOHN) HAS MAINTAINED
ITS INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, AND HAS A ROUND 33 NM DIAMETER
EYE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD OUTFLOW
ALOFT. DAMPIER, AUSTRALIA RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES A VERY STRONG
EYEWALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN
ELONGATION OF THE SYSTEM ALONG A NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST AXIS. AN AREA
OF DRY AIR SOUTH AND WEST OF THE SYSTEM REMAINS EVIDENT IN THE WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. TC 02S (JOHN) IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWARD UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED
OVER NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA. TC 02S IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL
NEAR PORT WALCOTT WITHIN THE NEXT 3 HOURS. AFTER LANDFALL, TC 02S
(JOHN) WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTH AS THE SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER
INLAND. TC 02S (JOHN) IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY UNTIL
LANDFALL, THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES INLAND DUE TO INCREASING
DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND INTERACTION WITH LAND. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z4 IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150300Z9 (DTG
150153Z5), 150900Z5 (DTG 150753Z1), 151500Z2 (DTG 151353Z8) AND
152100Z9 (DTG 151953Z4). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ILSA)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 19991215 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (JOHN) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z6 --- NEAR 20.8S0 117.6E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
055 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
110 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 20.8S0 117.6E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z9 --- 22.1S5 118.0E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
040 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
090 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z7 --- 23.3S8 118.4E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z0 --- 24.3S9 118.9E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
150300Z9 POSITION NEAR 21.1S4 117.7E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (JOHN) HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 8 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 142330Z3
VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 127 KNOTS.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TC 02S (JOHN) MADE
LANDFALL APPROXIMATELY 60 NM WEST OF PORT HEDLAND ON 142100Z8. TC
02S (JOHN) HAS A RAGGED 28 NM DIAMETER EYE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. DAMPIER, AUSTRALIA
RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES A VERY STRONG EYEWALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM. AN AREA OF DRY AIR SOUTH AND WEST OF THE SYSTEM REMAINS
EVIDENT IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. TC 02S (JOHN) IS FORECAST TO
TRACK SOUTHWARD INITIALLY THEN SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AFTER THE 24 HOUR
POSITION UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE SITUATED TO THE EAST. TC 02S (JOHN) IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
WEAKENING RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES INLAND DUE TO INCREASING DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT AND INTERACTION WITH LAND. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 150000Z6 IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z5 (DTG
150751Z9), 151500Z2 (DTG 151351Z6), 152100Z9 (DTG 151951Z2) AND
160300Z0 (DTG 160151Z4). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ILSA)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 19991215 09:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (JOHN) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z2 --- NEAR 21.6S9 117.9E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
055 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
110 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 21.6S9 117.9E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z5 --- 23.3S8 118.3E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
030 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
080 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z3 --- 24.8S4 119.0E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
150900Z5 POSITION NEAR 22.0S4 118.0E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (JOHN) HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
08 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
150530Z4 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115
AND 127 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES WEAKENING IN THE
NORTHERN QUADRANT AND ELONGATION TO THE SOUTHEAST AS TC 02S MOVES
INLAND AND INTO A HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. TC 02S
(JOHN) HAS MAINTAINED ITS RAGGED, CLOUD FILLED EYE, THOUGH IT HAS
BEEN OVER LAND FOR THE PAST 8 HOURS. NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIAN RADAR
IMAGERY INDICATES THE EYEWALL IS COLLAPSING. DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT HAS
SERVED TO WEAKEN THE CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN BOUNDARY OF THE
SYSTEM. TC 02S (JOHN) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. TC 02S (JOHN) IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES INLAND DUE TO INCREASING DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, AND INTERACTION WITH LAND. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 150600Z2 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 151500Z2 (DTG
151351Z6), 152100Z9 (DTG 151951Z2) AND 160300Z0 (DTG 160151Z4).
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ILSA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 19991215 15:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (JOHN) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z9 --- NEAR 22.1S5 118.8E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
040 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
090 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 22.1S5 118.8E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z7 --- 24.1S7 120.1E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
151500Z2 POSITION NEAR 22.6S0 119.1E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (JOHN) HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
151130Z1 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 AND 102 KNOTS. ANIMATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES RAPID WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM DUE TO DRY
AIR ENTRAINMENT, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND INTERACTION WITH LAND. TC
02S (JOHN) IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST.
TC 02S (JOHN) HAS LOST ITS EYE, AND WILL BE COMPLETELY DISSIPATED
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
151200Z9 IS 18 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 01S (ILSA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
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Document: john.htm
Updated: 26th December 2006 |
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