[Index]
Tropical Cyclone HUDAH
[Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere][Summaries and Track Data]
| Tropical
Cyclones
[Index] |
Tropical Cyclone HUDAH [Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere][Summaries and Track Data] |
WTXS21 PGTW 20000324 00:30z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 240021Z MAR 00//
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
2. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.3S0 96.7E2 TO 15.6S2 85.9E2
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 232330Z3 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.0S7 95.1E5. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS.
3. REMARKS: ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES MODERATE
CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO BUILD AND WRAP AROUND THE SYSTEM=S LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THOUGH SCATTEROMETER DATA AND SCARCE
SYNOPTIC REPORTS DO NOT YET INDICATE AN INTENSIFYING WIND FIELD,
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE IMPROVED OUTFLOW ALOFT AND A
DECREASE IN VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION. THESE IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO ALLOW FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS NOW GOOD.
4. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 250030Z0.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000324 15:00z COR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z9 --- NEAR 15.3S9 93.1E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S9 93.1E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z7 --- 15.0S6 90.6E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z0 --- 14.9S4 88.0E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z8 --- 14.6S1 85.3E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z1 --- 14.3S8 82.6E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
241500Z2 POSITION NEAR 15.2S8 92.5E6.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, WHICH WAS THE
SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT, HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE TROPICAL SYSTEM,
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 295 NM SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED
WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION
IS BASED ON 241130Z1 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS.
ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICT A RELATIVELY SMALL (100
NM IN AREAL EXTENT) SYSTEM. IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A DEVELOPING CENTRAL
DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
AND A POSSIBLE BANDING FEATURE OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. IT
APPEARS THAT THE LLCC IS NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CDO. 200 MB
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS SITUATED JUST SOUTH
OF THE SYSTEM. A MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30S3 70E7, SHOULD
BUILD EASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD TO A POSITION NEAR 30S3 85E3. AS A
RESULT, TC 21S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD WITHIN THE
DOMINANT RIDGE REGION. TC IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO TRACK EQUATORWARD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z9 IS 12 FEET. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS NAVPACMETOCCEN 240021Z MAR 00 TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 240030 ) NEXT WARNINGS AT
250300Z0 (DTG 250151Z4) AND 251500Z3 (DTG 251351Z7). JUSTIFICATION
FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED DTG AND REMARKS.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000325 03:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z7 --- NEAR 15.3S9 90.3E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S9 90.3E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z0 --- 14.9S4 87.6E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z8 --- 15.0S6 85.7E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z1 --- 15.2S8 83.5E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z9 --- 15.4S0 81.5E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z0 --- 15.4S0 77.5E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
250300Z0 POSITION NEAR 15.2S8 89.6E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 430 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS DURING
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 242330Z4 INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A RELATIVELY SMALL (150 NM IN AREAL EXTENT) SYSTEM. RECENT MICROWAVE
IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK BANDING FEATURE ORGANIZING AROUND THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY, WRAPPING INTO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS SITUATED
JUST SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON ITS
WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. TC 21S IS EXPECTED
TO INTENSIFY AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK EQUATORWARD OF THE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z7 IS 14
FEET. SUBSEQUENT WARNINGS TO BE ISSUED AT 6-HOUR INTERVALS UNTIL
FURTHER NOTICE. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250900Z6 (DTG 250751Z0), 251500Z3
(DTG 251351Z7), 252100Z0 (DTG 251951Z3) AND 260300Z1 (DTG
260151Z5).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000325 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HUDAH) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
250600Z3 --- NEAR 15.3S9 89.1E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S9 89.1E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z6 --- 14.9S4 86.2E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z4 --- 14.6S1 83.3E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z7 --- 14.5S0 80.4E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z5 --- 14.5S0 77.8E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z6 --- 14.5S0 72.4E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
250900Z6 POSITION NEAR 15.2S8 88.4E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (HUDAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 250530Z5
VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 AND 55 KNOTS.
ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RELATIVELY SMALL COMPACT SYSTEM
THAT HAS INTENSIFIED RAPIDLY DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. 200 MB
ANALYSIS INDICATES GOOD DIVERGENCE OVER TC 21S (HUDAH) WITH THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON ITS WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH. TC 21S (HUDAH) IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS DUE TO THE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THE SYSTEM IS
THEN EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING BETWEEN THE 24 AND 36 HOUR PERIOD.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z3 IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 251500Z3 (DTG 251351Z7), 252100Z0 (DTG 251951Z3),
260300Z1 (DTG 260151Z5) AND 260900Z7 (DTG 260751Z1).//
=========================================================================
WARNING 004 NOT AVAILABLE
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000325 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HUDAH) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
251800Z6 --- NEAR 15.1S7 87.4E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 15.1S7 87.4E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z4 --- 14.9S4 85.4E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z7 --- 14.8S3 82.9E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z5 --- 14.8S3 80.2E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z8 --- 14.7S2 77.5E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
252100Z0 POSITION NEAR 15.0S6 86.9E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (HUDAH), LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL INDIAN
OCEAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 251730Z8 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 65 AND 77 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SMALL SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN DURING THE PAST SIX
HOURS, WITH CLOUD TOPS WARMING AND THE WARM EYE NO LONGER EVIDENT.
RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BAND IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT
WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. 200 MB ANALYSIS
CONTINUES TO INDICATE GOOD DIVERGENCE OVER TC 21S (HUDAH) WITH THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UW-CIMSS MID- TO UPPERLEVEL SATELLITE WINDS
DEPICT AN UPPERLEVEL TROUGH TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE SUB-TROPICAL WESTERLIES. TC 21S (HUDAH) IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
OUT OF THE DIVERGENT QUADRANT OF THE UPPERLEVEL TROUGH TO THE SOUTH.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z6 IS 22 FEET. SUBSEQUENT
WARNINGS TO BE ISSUED AT 12-HOUR INTERVALS UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 260900Z7 (DTG 260751Z1) AND 262100Z1 (DTG
261951Z4).//
=========================================================================
WARNING 006 NOT AVAILABLE
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000326 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HUDAH) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
261800Z7 --- NEAR 14.6S1 83.4E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6S1 83.4E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z5 --- 14.5S0 80.9E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z8 --- 14.6S1 78.3E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z6 --- 14.7S2 75.8E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z9 --- 15.1S7 73.3E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
262100Z1 POSITION NEAR 14.6S1 82.8E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (HUDAH), LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL INDIAN
OCEAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 261830Z0 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 65 AND 77KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED ITS INTENSITY DURING THE PAST TWELVE
HOURS. RECENT SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSMI) PASS INDICATES A
CONVECTIVE BAND IN THE NORTHERN QUADRANT, WITH STRONGEST CONVECTION
IN A 20 NM BAND NEAR THE CENTER. 200 MB ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO
INDICATE GOOD DIVERGENCE OVER TC 21S (HUDAH) WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. TC 21S (HUDAH) IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS,
THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES INTO AN AREA OF INCREASED
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING OFF
OF SOUTHERN AFRICA. WIND RADII TO THE SOUTH ARE SUBSTANTIALLY LARGER
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED AND ARE BASED ON A RECENT QUIKSCATT PASS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261800Z7 IS 26 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 270900Z8 (DTG 270751Z2) AND 272100Z2 (DTG 271951Z5).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000327 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HUDAH) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
270600Z5 --- NEAR 14.6S1 81.5E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6S1 81.5E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z8 --- 14.6S1 79.4E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z6 --- 14.8S3 77.3E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z9 --- 15.1S7 75.0E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z7 --- 15.5S1 72.7E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
270900Z8 POSITION NEAR 14.6S1 81.0E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (HUDAH), LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL INDIAN
OCEAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 270530Z7 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 AND 90 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS,
WITH VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWING A 7 NM CLOUD FILLED EYE. A 270325Z9
SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSMI) PASS INDICATES A SIGNIFICANT
BANDING FEATURE TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE SYSTEM. 200 MB ANALYSIS
CONTINUES TO INDICATE GOOD DIVERGENCE OVER TC 21S (HUDAH) WITH THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SITUATED ALONG THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. TC
21S (HUDAH) IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES
INTO AN AREA OF INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING OFF OF SOUTHERN AFRICA. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z5 IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 272100Z2 (DTG
271951Z5) AND 280900Z9 (DTG 280751Z3).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000327 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HUDAH) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z8 --- NEAR 14.7S2 79.7E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 14.7S2 79.7E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z6 --- 15.0S6 77.6E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z9 --- 15.4S0 75.5E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z7 --- 15.7S3 73.0E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z0 --- 15.9S5 70.5E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
272100Z2 POSITION NEAR 14.8S3 79.2E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (HUDAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 600 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS DURING
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 271730Z0 INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 KNOTS. A 271513Z9 SPECIAL SENSOR
MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I) PASS DEPICTS A WELL DEVELOPED, SYMMETRIC
SYSTEM WITH A SIGNIFICANT BANDING FEATURE EXTENDING OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM. THE PASS ALSO INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF
A CLOUD FILLED EYE WITH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE EYEWALL. TC 21S SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK WITHIN
THE DOMINANT RIDGE PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. A MORE WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK IS FORECAST AS A MID-LEVEL HIGH SITUATED EAST OF
MADAGASCAR WEAKENS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY
REACHING PEAK INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z8 IS 28 FEET. A 6 HOURLY WARNING
(WTXS31 PGTW 280300) WILL BE GENERATED TO UTILIZE VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. WARNINGS WILL THEN BE TRANSMITTED EVERY 12 HOURS.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000328 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HUDAH) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
280000Z0 --- NEAR 14.8S3 78.5E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S3 78.5E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z3 --- 15.3S9 76.2E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z1 --- 15.8S4 73.7E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z4 --- 16.2S9 71.0E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z3 --- 16.6S3 68.4E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
280300Z3 POSITION NEAR 14.9S4 77.9E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (HUDAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 575 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS DURING
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 272330Z7 INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 AND 100 KNOTS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT AN 11 NM TIGHTLY
CURVED BANDING EYE. INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE
INTENSIFICATION OF THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE INDICATIVE OF THE WELL
DEFINED OUTFLOW CHANNELS SITUATED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE LLCC.
A SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE BAND REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
SYSTEM. TC 21S SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK WITHIN THE DOMINANT RIDGE
PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A MID-LEVEL HIGH SITUATED EAST OF
MADAGASCAR WEAKENS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN CURRENT
INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AFTERWARD, THE SYSTEM WILL
SLOWLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
280000Z0 IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 281500Z6 (DTG 281351Z0) AND
290300Z4 (DTG 290151Z8). FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000328 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HUDAH) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
281200Z3 --- NEAR 15.5S1 76.1E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S1 76.1E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z1 --- 16.0S7 73.7E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z4 --- 16.6S3 71.3E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z3 --- 17.1S9 68.8E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z6 --- 17.5S3 66.3E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
281500Z6 POSITION NEAR 15.6S2 75.5E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (HUDAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 530 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
12 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
281130Z2 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102
KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN IRREGULAR 8 NM
EYE. A 280632Z1 TROPICAL RAINFALL MEASURING MISSION (TRMM) PASS
SHOWS A SMALL EYE WITH A CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING FROM THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT INTO THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT AS TC
21S (HUDAH) TRACKS UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. TC
21S SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK WITHIN THE DOMINANT RIDGE PATTERN
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A MID-LEVEL HIGH SITUATED EAST OF MADAGASCAR
WEAKENS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLOWLY AFTER THE 12 HOUR
POINT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z3 IS 28 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 290300Z4 (DTG 290151Z8) AND 291500Z7 (DTG
291351Z1).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000329 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HUDAH) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
290000Z1 --- NEAR 16.1S8 73.9E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S8 73.9E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z4 --- 16.8S5 71.3E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z3 --- 17.4S2 68.7E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z6 --- 17.9S7 66.0E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z4 --- 18.4S3 63.6E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
290300Z4 POSITION NEAR 16.3S0 73.3E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (HUDAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 546 NM
SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 282330Z8
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 KNOTS. A 282113Z7
TROPICAL RAINFALL MEASURING MISSION (TRMM) PASS DEPICTED A SMALL (10
NM) CLOUD FILLED IRREGULAR EYE WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES
EVIDENT EAST THROUGH SOUTHWEST. ANIMATED INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOW WEAKENING OF THE UPPER-ANTICYCLONE OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS PARTICULARLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM. MID-LEVEL
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27.0S9 65.0E1 WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST WITH AN
APPROACH OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FROM SOUTHEAST AFRICA OVER THE
NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. TC 21S SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK WITHIN THE
DOMINANT RIDGE PATTERN FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS BEFORE MOVING INTO THE
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
WEAKEN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
290000Z1 IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 291500Z7 (DTG 291351Z1) AND
300300Z6 (DTG 300151Z0).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000329 15:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HUDAH) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
291200Z4 --- NEAR 16.8S5 71.4E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 16.8S5 71.4E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z3 --- 17.3S1 68.8E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z6 --- 17.9S7 66.1E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z4 --- 18.4S3 63.4E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z7 --- 18.8S7 60.7E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
291500Z7 POSITION NEAR 16.9S6 70.8E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (HUDAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 486 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT MATHURIN, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
12 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
291130Z6 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90
AND 115 KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICT A 10 NM CLOUD-FILLED EYE WITH A BANDING FEATURE SOUTH OF THE
CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE 290438Z6 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER
PASS INDICATES THAT THE STRONGEST CONVECTION IS IN THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE EYEWALL. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT
OUTFLOW HAS REMAINED GOOD OVERALL EXCEPT IN THE WESTERN QUADRANT.
MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO FORECAST A WEAKENING OF THE MID-LEVEL HIGH,
CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR 27.0S9 68.5E9, AND SHIFTS IT EASTWARD WITH
THE APPROACH OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FROM SOUTHEAST AFRICA AFTER
THE 36-HOUR POINT. TC 21S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL RIDGE, WITHIN THE DOMINANT
RIDGE PATTERN (OR TROPICAL EASTERLY PATTERN) FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS
BEFORE MOVING INTO THE WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z4 IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300300Z6 (DTG
300151Z0) AND 301500Z9 (DTG 301351Z3).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000330 03:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HUDAH) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z3 --- NEAR 16.9S6 68.9E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S6 68.9E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z6 --- 16.9S6 66.5E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z4 --- 16.8S5 64.0E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z7 --- 16.8S5 61.4E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z1 --- 16.7S4 58.7E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
300300Z6 POSITION NEAR 16.9S6 68.3E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (HUDAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT MATHURIN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
300000Z3 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 KNOTS. ANIMATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION AROUND A WELL-DEFINED
EMBEDDED CENTER. ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM IS
BEING SHEARED SLIGHTLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TC 21S (HUDAH) IS
FORECAST TO TRACK UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
TO ITS SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES THIS RIDGE HAS BUILT SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD AND IS
PROVIDING A MORE WESTWARD STEERING INFLUENCE THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z3 IS 24
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 301500Z9 (DTG 301351Z3) AND 310300Z7
(DTG 310151Z1).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000330 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HUDAH) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
301200Z6 --- NEAR 16.9S6 66.5E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S6 66.5E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z4 --- 16.9S6 64.0E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z7 --- 17.0S8 61.5E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z1 --- 17.0S8 58.9E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z4 --- 16.8S5 56.3E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
301500Z9 POSITION NEAR 16.9S6 65.9E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (HUDAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT MATHURIN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS DURING
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 301130Z8 AND
301200Z6 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77
AND 90 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SOME WEAKENING OF
THE SYSTEM IN THE PAST 12 HOURS. ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY SUGGESTS
THE SYSTEM IS BEING SHEARED SLIGHTLY FROM THE EAST. THIS SHEAR IS A
RESULT OF THE 200 MB UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WHICH IS SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM. TC 21S (HUDAH) IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z6 IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
310300Z7 (DTG 310151Z1) AND 311500Z0 (DTG 311351Z4).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000331 03:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HUDAH) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
310000Z4 --- NEAR 17.0S8 64.3E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S8 64.3E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z7 --- 16.9S6 62.0E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z1 --- 16.9S6 59.7E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z4 --- 16.8S5 57.4E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z2 --- 16.4S1 55.3E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
310300Z7 POSITION NEAR 17.0S8 63.7E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (HUDAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 165 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT MATHURIN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 302330Z1
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 AND 90 KNOTS. ANIMATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BANDING TYPE EYE FEATURE AND SOME
SLIGHTLY IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION. ENHANCED INFRARED
IMAGERY SHOWS A DECREASE IN THE SHEAR THE SYSTEM WAS EXPERIENCING
PREVIOUSLY. 200MB ANALYSIS AND UW-CIMSS VERTICAL SHEAR PRODUCTS SHOW
TC 21S (HUDAH) POSITIONED BELOW THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. TC 21S
(HUDAH) IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH. AFTER
THAT, TC 21S (HUDAH) IS EXPECTED TO TRACK MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS
THE STEERING RIDGE BUILDS TOWARDS THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO STRENGTHEN UNDER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS AND THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310000Z4 IS 26 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 311500Z0 (DTG 311351Z4) AND 010300Z4 DTG
010151Z8).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000331 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HUDAH) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
311200Z7 --- NEAR 17.0S8 61.8E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S8 61.8E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z1 --- 17.0S8 59.2E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z4 --- 16.9S6 56.7E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z2 --- 16.6S3 54.3E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z5 --- 16.3S0 51.9E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
311500Z0 POSITION NEAR 17.0S8 61.2E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (HUDAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT MATHURIN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 311130Z9
VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 KNOTS.
ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS A 20
NM EYE AND HAS INTENSIFIED DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS. 200MB ANALYSIS
AND UW-CIMSS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PRODUCTS SHOW TC 21S (HUDAH)
POSITIONED BELOW THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY REVEALS GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. TC 21S (HUDAH) IS FORECAST TO
TRACK WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE
OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH. AFTER THAT, TC 21S (HUDAH) IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS THE STEERING RIDGE
BUILDS TOWARDS THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS
CURRENT INTENSITY UNDER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY WEAKEN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 311200Z7 IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010300Z4 (DTG
010151Z8) AND 011500Z7 (DTG 011351Z1).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000401 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HUDAH) WARNING NR 018
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z1 --- NEAR 17.0S8 59.4E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S8 59.4E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z4 --- 16.9S6 56.8E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z2 --- 16.7S4 54.5E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z5 --- 16.2S9 51.9E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z3 --- 15.6S2 49.8E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
050 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
010300Z4 POSITION NEAR 17.0S8 58.7E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (HUDAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 560 NM
WEST OF MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS DURING THE PAST
6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 312330Z2 INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 AND 127 KNOTS. A 312047Z7 PARTIAL
TROPICAL RAINFALL MEASURING MISSION (TRMM) PASS DEPICTED AN INTENSE,
SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH A 24 NM CLOUD FREE EYE. THE 85 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS
THAT THE EYEWALL COMPLETELY SURROUNDS THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS A CONVECTIVE BANDING
FEATURE EXTENDING OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM. A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE SITUATED OVER MOZAMBIQUE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER MADAGASCAR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TC 21S (HUDAH) WILL THEN TAKE A MORE WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS REACHING A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 125 KNOTS. THE TRMM PASS WAS USED TO ADJUST THE SIZE
(WIND RADII) OF THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
010000Z1 IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 011500Z7 (DTG 011351Z1) AND
020300Z5 (DTG 020151Z9). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (TESSI)
WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000401 15:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HUDAH) WARNING NR 019
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z4 --- NEAR 16.6S3 56.9E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S3 56.9E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z2 --- 16.2S9 54.4E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z5 --- 15.7S3 51.8E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z3 --- 15.1S7 49.4E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
050 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z6 --- 14.9S4 47.3E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
040 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
011500Z7 POSITION NEAR 16.5S2 56.3E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (HUDAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM EAST
OF ANTANAMBE, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 011130Z6
VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 127 KNOTS.
ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGERY REVEAL THAT TC 21S (HUDAH) HAS
STRENGTHENED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND HAS A 21 NM ROUND EYE.
IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS THAT DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN THE EYEWALL HAS
INTENSIFIED, ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. A
010538Z7 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER PASS DEPICTS A SYMMETRIC
EYEWALL WITH A BANDING FEATURE WRAPPING AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF
THE SYSTEM INTO THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. TC 21S (HUDAH)
IS FORECAST TO TRACK UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING OVER MADAGASCAR, AND EXTENDING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. A 010601Z8 ERS2 SCATTEROMETER PASS SUPPORTS THE
INITIAL 35-KNOT WIND RADIUS, AND INDICATES THAT THE STRONGER WINDS
ARE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY UNTIL MAKING LANDFALL NEAR THE 30-HOUR
POINT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z4 IS 30 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 020300Z5 (DTG 020151Z9) AND 021500Z8 (DTG
021351Z2). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (TESSI) WARNINGS (WTPS31
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000402 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HUDAH) WARNING NR 020
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z2 --- NEAR 16.2S9 54.4E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S9 54.4E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z5 --- 15.5S1 51.8E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
065 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z3 --- 14.9S4 49.7E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM OVER WATER
010 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
050 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z6 --- 14.6S1 47.5E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
040 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z4 --- 14.4S9 45.0E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
020300Z5 POSITION NEAR 16.0S7 53.7E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (HUDAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM EAST
OF ANTANAMBE, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 012330Z9
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 125 KNOTS. A 012109Z3
TROPICAL RAINFALL MEASURING MISSION (TRMM) PASS AND A 011813Z4
SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE (SSM/I) SHOT DEPICTED A WELL DEFINED 20 NM
EYE WITH A CONCENTRIC EYE WALL FEATURE. A CONVECTIVE BAND IS ALSO
VISIBLE ABOUT 100 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST. MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING
EASTWARD FROM MOZAMBIQUE IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN OVER MADAGASCAR
OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. TC 21S SHOULD CONTINUE ON A WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK BEFORE MOVING INTO A SLIGHT WEAKNESS AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY SLOWLY UNTIL MAKING LANDFALL NEAR THE 24 HOUR PERIOD.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z2 IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 021500Z8 (DTG 021351Z2) AND 030300Z6 (DTG 030151Z0).
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (TESSI) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000402 15:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HUDAH) WARNING NR 021
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z5 --- NEAR 15.5S1 51.6E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
060 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S1 51.6E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z3 --- 15.1S7 49.5E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
010 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
050 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z6 --- 14.9S4 47.5E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
045 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z4 --- 14.8S3 45.1E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z7 --- 14.9S4 42.7E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
021500Z8 POSITION NEAR 15.4S0 51.1E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (HUDAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 84 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANTALAHA, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
021130Z7 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 127
KNOTS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
SLIGHTLY WEAKENING SYSTEM AS TC 21S BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH LAND.
IMAGERY NOW REVEALS A BANDING EYE WITH DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN THE
EYEWALL DECREASING IN INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM MOZAMBIQUE IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN
OVER MADAGASCAR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THEREFORE, TC 21S SHOULD
CONTINUE ON A WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE 24 TO 36-HOUR POINT.
AFTERWARDS, TC 21S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO A
SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN INTENSITY UNTIL MAKING LANDFALL AT THE 6-HOUR POINT,
APPROXIMATELY 25 NM SOUTH OF ANTALAHA, MADAGASCAR. AFTER MOVING INTO
THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, TC 21S SHOULD MAINTAIN INTENSITY AT ABOUT 90
KNOTS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z5 IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 030300Z6 (DTG 030151Z0) AND 031500Z9 (DTG 031351Z3).
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (TESSI) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000403 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HUDAH) WARNING NR 022
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z3 --- NEAR 14.8S3 49.5E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
050 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S3 49.5E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z6 --- 14.3S8 47.5E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
030 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z4 --- 14.1S6 44.8E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z7 --- 14.0S5 42.9E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z5 --- 14.0S5 41.0E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
040 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
030300Z6 POSITION NEAR 14.7S2 49.0E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (HUDAH) MOVED ONSHORE OVER NORTHERN
MADAGASCAR AT 021730Z3 ABOUT 15 NM SOUTHEAST OF ANTALAHA PACKING
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 115 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 140 KNOTS. TROPICAL
CYCLONE (TC) 21S (HUDAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 45 NM WEST OF
ANTALAHA, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 022330Z0
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 AND 102 KNOTS. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THAT THE EYE HAS BECOME CLOUD
FILLED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED
SIGNIFICANTLY, THE SYSTEM HAS REMAINED WELL ORGANIZED. OUTFLOW
REMAINS IMPRESSIVE INDICATIVE OF OUTFLOW CHANNELS VISIBLE OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM. TC 21S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK MORE
WESTWARD AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, MOVING OFF OF THE SOUTH AFRICA
COAST, SLIGHTLY WEAKENS THE RIDGE SITUATED OVER CENTRAL MADAGASCAR.
TC 21S SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AFTERWARD,
SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. NEXT WARNINGS AT 031500Z9 (DTG 031351Z3) AND
040300Z7 (DTG 040151Z1). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (TESSI)
(WTPS31 PGTW) FOR FINAL WARNING. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P
(NONAME) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000403 15:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HUDAH) WARNING NR 023
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z6 --- NEAR 15.1S7 46.3E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 15.1S7 46.3E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z4 --- 15.6S2 44.3E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z7 --- 16.2S9 42.0E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z5 --- 16.9S6 39.8E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z8 --- 17.5S3 37.6E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
015 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
045 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
031500Z9 POSITION NEAR 15.2S8 45.8E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (HUDAH) HAS MOVED OFF THE NORTHWEST COAST
OF MADAGASCAR AND IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 34 NM NORTH OF MAJUNGA,
MADAGASCAR. TC 21S HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS DURING
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 031130Z8 VISIBLE
AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 AND 77 KNOTS. A 030247Z6
SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I) PASS SHOWS THAT THE MAJORITY
OF THE CONVECTION IS SOUTH OF THE CENTER, WRAPPING INTO THE WESTERN
QUADRANT OF TC 21S. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS MOVED OFF THE
NORTHWEST COAST OF MADAGASCAR AND REMAINS TIGHTLY WRAPPED. INFRARED
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED SINCE THE SSM/I
PASS, BUT SOME DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO RE-DEVELOP OVER THE
LLCC. TC 21S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE CREATED BY A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
MOVING OFF OF THE SOUTH AFRICA COAST. TC 21S IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AS IT TRACKS WITHIN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z6
IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040300Z7 (DTG 040151Z1) AND 041500Z0
(DTG 041351Z4). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (NONAME) WARNINGS
(WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000404 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HUDAH) WARNING NR 024
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
040000Z4 --- NEAR 15.5S1 44.1E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
045 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S1 44.1E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z7 --- 16.3S0 42.2E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z5 --- 16.8S5 40.5E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
065 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z8 --- 17.0S8 38.8E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
075 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z6 --- 17.0S8 37.1E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
010 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
055 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
040300Z7 POSITION NEAR 15.7S3 43.6E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (HUDAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM WEST
OF MAJUNGA, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 032330Z1
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS AND SYNOPTIC DATA.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS
BEGINNING TO REINTENSIFY AS CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO REFORM AROUND
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AS IT MOVES OFF THE
NORTHWEST COAST OF MADAGASCAR AND BACK INTO OPEN WATER. TC 21S
(HUDAH) IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE CREATED BY A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH MOVING OFF OF THE SOUTH AFRICAN COAST. THE SYSTEM IS THEN
EXPECTED TO TAKE A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. TC 21S (HUDAH) IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AS IT TRACKS
WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
040000Z4 IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 041500Z0 (DTG 041351Z4) AND
050300Z8 (DTG 050151Z2). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (VAUGHAN)
WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000404 15:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HUDAH) WARNING NR 025
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z7 --- NEAR 15.3S9 42.3E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S9 42.3E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z5 --- 15.9S5 40.8E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
055 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z8 --- 16.3S0 39.4E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
055 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z6 --- 16.6S3 38.1E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
040 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z9 --- 16.6S3 36.7E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
041500Z0 POSITION NEAR 15.4S0 41.9E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (HUDAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 105 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NACALA, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
041130Z9 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55
KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM
IS BEGINNING TO REINTENSIFY AS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE
AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). TC 21S (HUDAH) IS
FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS TOWARD A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE CREATED BY A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING OFF OF
THE SOUTH AFRICAN COAST. THE SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO RESUME A
WESTWARD TRACK, AS THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. TC
21S (HUDAH) IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY UNTIL LANDFALL AT APPROXIMATELY
050600Z1, 100 NM SOUTH OF NACALA. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
041200Z7 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050300Z8 (DTG 050151Z2) AND
051500Z1 (DTG 051351Z5). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (VAUGHAN)
WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000405 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HUDAH) WARNING NR 026
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z5 --- NEAR 16.5S2 41.0E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
060 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S2 41.0E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z8 --- 17.2S0 39.3E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
030 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
085 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z6 --- 17.4S2 37.7E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
100 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z9 --- 17.4S2 36.2E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
050 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z7 --- 17.4S2 35.0E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
050300Z8 POSITION NEAR 16.7S4 40.6E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (HUDAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 100 NM
EAST OF PORTO DE MOMA, MADAGASCAR, AND HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 042330Z2 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 65 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS CONVECTION CONSOLIDATES AROUND THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). TC 21S (HUDAH) IS FORECAST TO
TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN
THE RIDGE CREATED BY A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING OFF OF THE SOUTH
AFRICAN COAST. THE SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO RESUME A WESTWARD
TRACK, AS THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. TC 21S
(HUDAH) IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY UNTIL LANDFALL AT APPROXIMATELY
060000Z6. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z5 IS 22 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 051500Z1 (DTG 051351Z5) AND 060300Z9 (DTG
060151Z3). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (VAUGHAN) WARNINGS (WTPS32
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000405 15:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HUDAH) WARNING NR 027
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z8 --- NEAR 16.9S6 39.7E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
020 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
060 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S6 39.7E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z6 --- 17.4S2 38.5E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
030 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
085 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z9 --- 17.8S6 37.8E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
030 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
090 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z7 --- 18.0S9 37.0E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
030 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
070 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z0 --- 17.9S7 36.2E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
050 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
051500Z1 POSITION NEAR 17.0S8 39.4E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (HUDAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 25 NM
EAST OF PORTO DE MOMA, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
051130Z0 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 65 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE COAST
OF MADAGASCAR. TC 21S (HUDAH) IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH
OUT THE PERIOD, MAKING LANDFALL NEAR PORTO DE QUELIMANE, MOZAMBIQUE.
TC 21S (HUDAH) IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY BEFORE LANDFALL AT 070000Z7,
THEN BEGIN DISSIPATING OVER LAND. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
051200Z8 IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060300Z9 (DTG 060151Z3) AND
061500Z2 (DTG 061351Z6). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (VAUGHAN)
WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000406 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HUDAH) WARNING NR 028
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z6 --- NEAR 17.6S4 39.4E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
060 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S4 39.4E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z9 --- 18.6S5 38.5E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z7 --- 18.9S8 37.7E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z0 --- 18.8S7 37.0E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
090 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z8 --- 18.1S0 35.9E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
040 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
060300Z9 POSITION NEAR 17.9S7 39.2E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (HUDAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 50 NM SOUTH
OF PORTO DE MOMA, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 03 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 052330Z3
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 AND 77 KNOTS. A 051859Z8
SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I) DEPICTED A WELL DEVELOPED
CONVECTIVE BAND EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. ABOUT 6 HOURS AGO, IT APPEARED IN ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY, THAT THE SYSTEM TEMPORARILY DEVELOPED AN
EYE. 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES IMPROVED UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER
THE REGION. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD EASTWARD OVER
SOUTHERN MADAGASCAR AFTER THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. TC 21S
(HUDAH) SHOULD CONTINUE TO PARALLEL THE MOZAMBIQUE COAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE TAKING A MORE WESTWARD TURN TOWARD THE COAST.
TC 21S (HUDAH) SHOULD INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE BEFORE
MOVING ONSHORE AFTER THE 36 HOUR PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 060000Z6 IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z2 (DTG
061351Z6) AND 070300Z0 (DTG 070151Z4). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
23P (VAUGHAN) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000406 15:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HUDAH) WARNING NR 029
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z9 --- NEAR 18.4S3 38.5E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 18.4S3 38.5E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z7 --- 19.1S1 37.9E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z0 --- 19.9S9 37.6E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z8 --- 21.0S3 37.6E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z1 --- 22.4S8 38.1E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
061500Z2 POSITION NEAR 18.6S5 38.4E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (HUDAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF BEIRA, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
061130Z1 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65
AND 77 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC
21S HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH A 12 NM
RAGGED EYE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC 21S HAS GOOD
OUTFLOW ALOFT AND ALSO SHOWS MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
MOZAMBIQUE NORTH OF THE JET. 500 MB ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS 20-30 KNOTS
OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SOUTHWEST OF TC 21S. THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER MADAGASCAR WITH A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH POSITIONED OVER SOUTH AFRICA. TC 21S (HUDAH) IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHWARD UNDER STEERING FROM THE RIDGE TO THE EAST.
TC 21S SHOULD INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES UNDER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z9 IS 22 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 070300Z0 (DTG 070151Z4) AND 071500Z3 (DTG 071351Z7).
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (VAUGHAN) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000406 21:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HUDAH) WARNING NR 030
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z5 --- NEAR 19.0S0 38.7E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 19.0S0 38.7E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 19.7S7 38.7E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 20.5S7 39.1E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 21.2S5 39.5E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z7 --- 22.2S6 39.8E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z8 --- 24.2S8 39.6E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
062100Z9 POSITION NEAR 19.2S2 38.7E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (HUDAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120 NM
SOUTHEAST OF PORTO DE QUELIMANE, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 061730Z7 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 90 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED (I/R) IMAGERY DEPICTS RAPID
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. IMAGERY ALSO REVEALS IMPROVED
DEFINITION OF THE EYE WITH A SIGNIFICANT BANDING FEATURE OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM. A 061807Z2 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE
IMAGER (SSM/I) PASS INDICATED A 15 NM IRREGULAR EYE WITH A
CONVECTIVE BAND EXTENDING SOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
I/R AND WATER VAPOR ANIMATION SHOW IMPROVED OUTFLOW PARTICULARLY
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. TC 21S IS TRACKING WITHIN A WEAKNESS
IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CREATED BY A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH SITUATED
JUST OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH AFRICA. TC 21S IS FORECAST TO TRACK
GENERALLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE 48 HOURS BEFORE TURNING SLIGHTLY
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING TO
THE SOUTHEAST. TC 21S SHOULD INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
061800Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070300Z0 (DTG 070151Z4),
070900Z6 (DTG 070751Z0), 071500Z3 (DTG 071351Z7) AND 072100Z0 (DTG
071951Z3). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (VAUGHAN) WARNINGS (WTPS32
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000407 03:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HUDAH) WARNING NR 031
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z7 --- NEAR 19.0S0 38.4E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 19.0S0 38.4E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z0 --- 19.5S5 37.9E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z8 --- 19.9S9 37.1E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z1 --- 19.5S5 36.1E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
040 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z9 --- 19.0S0 35.1E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
025 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z1 --- 17.9S7 33.4E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
070300Z0 POSITION NEAR 19.1S1 38.3E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (HUDAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 205 NM
EAST OF BEIRA, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
062330Z4 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 KNOTS. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 061953Z4 TROPICAL RAINFALL
MEASURING MISSION (TRMM) PASS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A 15 NM IRREGULAR
EYE. IMAGERY ALSO REVEALS STRONGER CONVECTION CONFINED PRIMARILY TO
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM. THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH SITUATED
OVER SOUTHEAST AFRICA HAS DECREASED IN AMPLITUDE CONSIDERABLY OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS. THEREFORE, THE TRACK PHILOSOPHY HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE CHANNEL
EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. TC 21S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE TURNING NORTHWESTWARD IN
RESPONSE TO THE RIDGE REESTABLISHING TO THE SOUTH. TC 21S SHOULD
SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 070000Z7 IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z6 (DTG
070751Z0), 071500Z3 (DTG 071351Z7), 072100Z0 (DTG 071951Z3) AND
080300Z1 (DTG 080151Z5). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (VAUGHAN)
WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR FINAL WARINING ON THIS SYSTEM.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000407 09:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HUDAH) WARNING NR 032
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z3 --- NEAR 18.7S6 38.3E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7S6 38.3E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 18.6S5 38.0E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 18.7S6 37.5E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
080 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z7 --- 18.6S5 36.8E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
070 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z5 --- 18.3S2 36.1E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
040 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z7 --- 17.5S3 34.7E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
070900Z6 POSITION NEAR 18.7S6 38.2E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (HUDAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 210 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF BEIRA, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS DRIFTED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 03 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 070530Z5 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 KNOTS.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 070358Z3 TROPICAL RAINFALL
MEASURING MISSION (TRMM) PASS DEPICT A 20 NM ROUND EYE THAT HAS
BECOME BETTER DEFINED IN THE PAST 6 HOURS. IMAGERY ALSO REVEALS
STRONGER CONVECTION CONFINED PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
SYSTEM. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD OUTFLOW
ALOFT, AND SHOWS THAT THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH IS LOCATED OFF THE
SOUTH AFRICAN COAST NEAR 35E8. TC 21S (HUDAH) IS CURRENTLY SITUATED
WITHIN A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WITH THE WESTERN HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 16S7 30E3, AND THE EASTERN HIGH CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
MADAGASCAR. TC 21S IS DRIFTING WITHIN THE WEAKNESS, UNDER THE WEAK
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN HIGH. THE EASTERN RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD, SOUTH OF TC 21S, AFTER THE 12-24
HOUR POINT AS THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH PROPAGATES EAST OF THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. THIS WILL PROVIDE A MORE WESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD STEERING INFLUENCE. TC 21S SHOULD INTENSIFY WITHIN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT UNTIL IT MAKES LANDFALL NEAR THE 36-HOUR
POINT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z3 IS 22 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 071500Z3 (DTG 071351Z7), 072100Z0 (DTG 071951Z3),
080300Z1 (DTG 080151Z5) AND 080900Z7 (DTG 080751Z1).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000407 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HUDAH) WARNING NR 033
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z0 --- NEAR 18.6S5 38.2E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 18.6S5 38.2E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z8 --- 18.7S6 37.8E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z1 --- 18.7S6 37.2E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
075 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z9 --- 18.5S4 36.4E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
070 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z2 --- 18.3S2 35.6E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
035 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z4 --- 18.1S0 34.4E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
071500Z3 POSITION NEAR 18.6S5 38.1E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (HUDAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF BEIRA, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS DRIFTED NORTHWARD AT 02
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
071130Z2 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102
KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC 21S (HUDAH)
HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS WITH SLIGHTLY
IMPROVING OUTFLOW ALOFT. IMAGERY ALSO DEPICTS A 17 NM IRREGULAR EYE.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH
HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK EASTWARD AND IS LOCATED OFF THE SOUTH AFRICAN
COAST NEAR 37E0. TC 21S (HUDAH) IS CURRENTLY SITUATED WITHIN A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WITH THE WESTERN HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 16S7 30E3, AND THE EASTERN HIGH CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
MADAGASCAR. TC 21S CONTINUES TO TRACK SLOWLY NORTHWARD UNDER THE
WEAK STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN HIGH. THE EASTERN RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD, SOUTH OF TC 21S, AFTER THE 12-24 HOUR
POINT AS THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH PROPAGATES EAST OF THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL. THIS WILL PROVIDE A MORE WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
STEERING INFLUENCE. TC 21S SHOULD INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AT A NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT UNTIL IT MAKES
LANDFALL NEAR THE 36-HOUR POINT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
071200Z0 IS GREATER THAN 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z0 (DTG
071951Z3), 080300Z1 (DTG 080151Z5), 080900Z7 (DTG 080751Z1) AND
081500Z4 (DTG 081351Z8).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000407 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HUDAH) WARNING NR 034
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z6 --- NEAR 18.3S2 38.5E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 030 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM OVER WATER
070 NM
ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 18.3S2 38.5E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 18.1S0 38.6E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM OVER WATER
025 NM
ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM OVER WATER
075 NM
ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z7 --- 17.9S7 38.4E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM OVER WATER
025 NM
ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
075 NM
ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z5 --- 17.7S5 38.2E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000408 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY MAPUTO
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HUDAH) WARNING NR 035
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z8 --- NEAR 18.0S9 38.4E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
070 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 18.0S9 38.4E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z1 --- 17.6S4 38.3E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM OVER WATER
025 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
060 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z9 --- 17.2S0 37.9E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM OVER WATER
025 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
060 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z2 --- 16.8S5 36.9E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
040 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z1 --- 16.4S1 36.0E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
080300Z1 POSITION NEAR 17.9S7 38.4E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (HUDAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 85 NM
EAST OF QUELIMANE, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS DRIFTED NORTHWARD AT 03 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 072330Z5
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 AND 90 KNOTS. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC 21S (HUDAH) HAS SLIGHTLY
WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS THAT THE EYE HAS
BECOME VERY RAGGED AND COMPLETELY CLOUD FILLED. ANIMATED IMAGERY AND
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT TC 21S (HUDAH) IS SITUATED WITHIN
A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WITH THE WESTERN HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 16S7 30E3, AND THE EASTERN HIGH CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
MADAGASCAR. TC 21S HAS TRACKED TOWARDS THE NORTH UNDER THE WEAK
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN HIGH. THE EASTERN RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD, PROVIDING A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
WESTWARD STEERING INFLUENCE. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL
NEAR PEBANE, MOZAMBIQUE AROUND THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. TC 21S
SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN SLOWLY AS IT APPROACHES LAND, AND THEN
RAPIDLY WEAKEN AFTER MAKING LANDFALL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 080000Z8 IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z7 (DTG
080751Z1), 081500Z4 (DTG 081351Z8), 082100Z1 (DTG 081951Z4) AND
090300Z2 (DTG 090151Z6).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000408 09:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY MAPUTO
AMEMBASSY MAPUTO REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HUDAH) WARNING NR 036
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z4 --- NEAR 17.2S0 38.3E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
020 NM
ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
070 NM
ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2S0 38.3E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z7 --- 16.5S2 38.2E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM OVER WATER
025 NM
ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
050 NM
ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z5 --- 15.7S3 37.6E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
040 NM
ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z8 --- 14.8S3 36.6E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
080900Z7 POSITION NEAR 17.0S8 38.3E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (HUDAH), IS CURRENTLY MAKING
LANDFALL OVER PEBANE, MOZAMBIQUE. TC 21S (HUDAH) HAS
TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 080530Z6 INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 KNOTS.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC 21S
(HUDAH) HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS.
RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT STRONG CONVECTION IS
LIMITED TO THE FORMER EYE WALL. TC 21S (HUDAH) HAS BEGUN
TO ACCELERATE TO THE NORTH, UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE WEST. THE SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE INCREASINGLY WESTWARD AFTER THE 12 HR
TIMEFRAME AS IT MOVES AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS. TC 21S WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND, DISSIPATING OVER
LAND BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z4 IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
082100Z1 (DTG 081951Z4) AND 090900Z8 (DTG 090751Z2).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000408 15:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY MAPUTO
AMEMBASSY MAPUTO REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HUDAH) WARNING NR 037
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z1 --- NEAR 16.7S4 38.4E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
020 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
060 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 16.7S4 38.4E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z9 --- 16.0S7 38.5E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
030 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z2 --- 15.0S6 38.1E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
081500Z4 POSITION NEAR 16.5S2 38.4E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (HUDAH), HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05
KNOTS IN NORTHEASTERN, MOZAMBIQUE DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 081130Z3 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 AND 77 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THAT TC 21S (HUDAH) HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS. THERE IS NO LONGER ANY EYE FEATURE EVIDENT. TC 21S (HUDAH) IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE NORTH UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE WEST. TC 21S (HUDAH)WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES FURTHER INLAND DISSIPATING OVERLAND WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z1 IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 082100Z1 (DTG 081951Z4), 090300Z2 (DTG 090151Z6) AND
090900Z8 (DTG 090751Z2).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000408 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY MAPUTO
AMEMBASSY MAPUTO REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HUDAH) WARNING NR 038
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z7 --- NEAR 16.1S8 38.5E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
050 NM
ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S8 38.5E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z5 --- 15.1S7 38.5E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
082100Z1 POSITION NEAR 15.8S4 38.5E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (HUDAH) HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER NORTHEASTERN MOZAMBIQUE DURING THE PAST
6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 081730Z9
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55
KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW TC
21S (HUDAH) WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS OVER LAND. CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME WEAK AND
DISORGANIZED WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING INCREASED
WARMING OF THE CLOUD TOPS. TC 21S (HUDAH) IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TRACKING NORTH UNDER THE WEAK STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE WEST. THE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FURTHER INLAND
DISSIPATING OVER LAND WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 090300Z2 (DTG 90151Z6).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000409 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY MAPUTO
AMEMBASSY MAPUTO REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HUDAH) WARNING NR 039
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z9 --- NEAR 15.4S0 38.6E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4S0 38.6E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z2 --- 13.7S1 38.3E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
LAND
---
REMARKS:
090300Z2 POSITION NEAR 15.0S6 38.5E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (HUDAH) HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER NORTHEASTERN MOZAMBIQUE DURING THE
PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 082330Z6
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30
AND 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO
SHOW TC 21S (HUDAH) WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS OVER LAND.
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME WEAK
AND DISORGANIZED, ALTHOUGH IT REMAINS PERSISTENT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASED WARMING OF THE
CLOUD TOPS. TC 21S (HUDAH) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TRACKING NORTH UNDER THE WEAK STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE WEST. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FURTHER INLAND DISSIPATING OVER
LAND WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z8
(DTG 090751Z2).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000409 09:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY MAPUTO
AMEMBASSY MAPUTO REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HUDAH) WARNING NR 040
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z5 --- NEAR 15.0S6 38.5E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 120 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0S6 38.5E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z8 --- 14.3S8 38.3E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
090900Z8 POSITION NEAR 14.8S3 38.4E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (HUDAH) HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT
03 KNOTS OVER NORTHEASTERN MOZAMBIQUE DURING THE PAST 6
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 090530Z7 VISIBLE
AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND
35 KNOTS. TC 21S (HUDAH) HAS DISSIPATED OVER LAND WITH
SOME LOCALIZED, PERSISTENT CONVECTION RESULTING FROM
OROGRAPHIC LIFT OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THE CENTER
HAS BECOME DIFFICULT TO FIND IN THE SCATTERED CONVECTION.
THE REMNANTS OF TC 21S (HUDAH) ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TRACKING NORTH UNDER THE WEAK STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE WEST. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING
ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
(NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
|
Document: hudah.htm
Updated: 26th December 2006 |
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