[Index]
Tropical Cyclone 200017
[Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere][Summaries and Track Data]
| Tropical
Cyclones
[Index] |
Tropical Cyclone 200017 [Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere][Summaries and Track Data] |
WTXS21 PGTW 20000301 10:00z
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN YOKOSUKA JA/291251Z FEB 00//
AMPN/TROPCIAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS22 PGTW 291300)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 200 NM RADIUS OF 13.0S4 87.5E0 WITHIN THE NEXT 03 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED
TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 010254Z2 INDICATES THAT
A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.0S4 87.5E0. THE SYSTEM
IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
ANIMATED VISIBLE IMAGERY AND 010306Z0 MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATE THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS REDEVELOPED
FURTHER EAST OUTSIDE THE PREVIOUS TCFA AREA AND THIS IS THE REASON
FOR THE RE-ISSUANCE. HOWEVER DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS THIS SYSTEM
HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS THE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR HAS WEAKENED
AND AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE APPEARS TO HAVE FORMED OVER THE
LOW LEVEL CENTER. SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATES WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS
AND IF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP NEAR THE CENTER THIS SYSTEM
MAY BE WARNED ON AT 011200Z4.
3. THIS ALERT SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS22 PGTW 291300) AND IS VALID
UNTIL 021000Z3.
4. THIS IS A PRODUCT OF THE ALTERNATE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER,
YOKOSUKA, JAPAN. QUESTIONS SHOULD BE DIRECTED TO THE TYPHOON DUTY
OFFICER AT NPMOC YOKOSUKA DSN 243-8872.
FORECAST TEAM STEWART/MCKEOWN/WYNN/ILCZUK//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20000301 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S WARNING NR 001
05 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z4 --- NEAR 13.5S9 87.5E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.5S9 87.5E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z2 --- 14.0S5 86.9E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z5 --- 14.2S7 85.9E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z3 --- 14.3S8 84.7E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
055 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z6 --- 14.4S9 83.1E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
085 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
---
REMARKS:
011500Z7 POSITION NEAR 13.6S0 87.4E9.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION SOUTHWEST OF SUMATRA WHICH WAS THE SUBJECT OF
A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS AND HAS INTENSIFIED INTO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A BROAD CIRCULATION CENTER WITH MAXIMUM WINDS
SITUATED 60 TO 150 NM WEST THRU NORTH OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER DEEP
CONVECTION DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS HAS DEVELOPED SOUTHEAST THRU
WEST OF THE CENTER AS THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS WEAKENED AND
SHIFTING FROM EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY. THIS HAS ALLOWED A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO FORM OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER AND GLOBAL MODELS AND THE UW-CIMMS WATER VAPOR SHEAR CHART
INDICATES THAT TC 17S WILL GRADUALLY TRACK BENEATH A REGION OF LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AFTER 24 HOURS. OUR FORECAST TRACK IS CONSISTENT
WITH GLOBAL MODELS AND OUR OBJECTIVE FORECAST AIDS WHICH INDICATE A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR WEST AFTER 36 HOURS AS TC 17S
ENCOUNTERS THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH. ONLY SLOW
STRENGHTENING IS EXPECTED THRU 36 HOURS DUE TO THE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WITH A STEADY INTENSIFICATION OF 1 T-NUMBER PER DAY AFTER
THAT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z IS 10 FEET. THIS
SUPERCEDES TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 011000).
NEXT WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED BY NAVPACMETOCCEN JOINT TYPHOON WARNING
CENTER PEARL HARBOR HI AT 020300Z5 (DTG 020157Z5) AND 021500Z8 (DTG
021357Z8). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (KIM) WARNING (WTPS31 PGTW)
FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P
(STEVE) WARNING (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GLORIA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S WARNINGS (WTXS32
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. THIS IS A PRODUCT OF THE ALTERNATE
JTWC, YOKOSUKA, JAPAN. QUESTIONS SHOULD BE DIRECTED TO THE TYPHOON
DUTY OFFICER AT NPMOC YOKOSUKA (DSN 243-8872).//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20000302 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S WARNING NR 002
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z2 --- NEAR 13.0S4 86.8E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.0S4 86.8E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z5 --- 13.1S5 86.0E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z3 --- 13.3S7 85.1E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z6 --- 13.5S9 83.9E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z4 --- 13.7S1 82.3E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
020300Z5 POSITION NEAR 13.0S4 86.6E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S HAS DRIFTED TOWARDS THE WEST AT 03 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS, 900 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 012330Z9 INFRARED IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 TO
30 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTION SHEARED 70 NM TO THE
WEST. TC 17S HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY WITH A SLIGHT WESTWARD
DRIFT. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY BEGIN TRACKING TOWARDS THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST WITHIN THE STEERING FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. UW-CIMSS SHEAR CHARTS
INDICATE DECREASING SHEAR TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WHICH IS FORECAST TO
ALLOW GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION AFTER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z2 IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
021500Z8 (DTG 021357Z8) AND 030300Z6 (DTG 030157Z6). REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GLORIA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (NORMAN) WARNINGS (WTXS32
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. THIS IS A PRODUCT OF THE JOINT
TYPHOON WARNING CENTER, PEARL HARBOR, HAWAII. QUESTIONS SHOULD BE
DIRECTED TO THE TYPHOON DUTY OFFICER AT NPMOC PEARL HARBOR (DSN
474-2320).//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20000302 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S WARNING NR 003
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z5 --- NEAR 13.9S3 86.2E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.9S3 86.2E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z3 --- 14.4S9 85.4E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z6 --- 14.8S3 84.2E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z4 --- 15.1S7 83.0E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z7 --- 15.4S0 81.9E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
021500Z8 POSITION NEAR 14.0S5 86.0E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S, APPROXIMATELY 900 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS DURING THE PAST
6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 021130Z7 INFRARED IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
CONVECTION SHEARED 32 NM TO THE WEST. A 021036Z2 TROPICAL RAINFALL
MEASURING MISSION (TRMM) PASS ALSO SHOWS AN EXPOSED LLCC WITH
CONVECTION TO THE WEST. UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 17S BEING
SHEARED FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 17S IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT,
THEREFORE ALLOWING GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION AFTER THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z5 IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 030300Z6 (DTG 030157Z6) AND 031500Z9 (DTG 031357Z9).
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GLORIA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (NORMAN)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20000303 03:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S WARNING NR 004
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z3 --- NEAR 14.3S8 84.8E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 075 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S8 84.8E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z6 --- 14.8S3 83.3E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z4 --- 15.3S9 81.7E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z7 --- 15.7S3 80.0E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z5 --- 16.1S8 78.1E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
030300Z6 POSITION NEAR 14.4S9 84.4E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 850 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA AND HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 8 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED
ON ANIMATED 022330Z0 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 30 KNOTS. ANIMATED IMAGERY CONTINUES
TO SUGGEST THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TC 17S IS SHEARED 30
NM NORTHWEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION, BUT THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT USING INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS BASICALLY UNCHANGED AS TC
17S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THE HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT IS RETARDING
DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME, TC 17S SHOULD BEGIN TO INTENSIFY WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES UNDER THE 200 MB RIDGE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z3 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
031500Z9 (DTG 031357Z9) AND 040300Z7 (DTG 040157Z7). REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (STEVE) WARNINGS (WTXS35 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GLORIA) WARNINGS (WTXS31
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (NORMAN)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20000303 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S WARNING NR 005
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z6 --- NEAR 16.1S8 84.1E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S8 84.1E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z4 --- 16.5S2 83.0E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z7 --- 16.8S5 81.7E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z5 --- 16.9S6 80.5E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z8 --- 17.0S8 79.2E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
031500Z9 POSITION NEAR 16.2S9 83.8E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 860 NM SOUTHEAST
OF DIEGO GARCIA AND HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON
ANIMATED 031130Z8 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 30 KNOTS. ANIMATED IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TC 17S IS SHEARED APPROXIMATELY
45 NM WEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. TC 17S IS FORECAST TO TRACK
WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THE HIGH SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT IS RETARDING DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME, TC 17S SHOULD
BEGIN TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES UNDER
THE 200 MB RIDGE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z6 IS 12
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040300Z7 (DTG 040157Z7) AND 041500Z0 (DTG
041357Z0). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (STEVE) WARNINGS (WTXS35
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GLORIA)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 16S (NORMAN) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20000304 03:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S WARNING NR 006
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
040000Z4 --- NEAR 16.1S8 83.0E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S8 83.0E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z7 --- 16.3S0 82.2E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z5 --- 16.9S6 81.3E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z8 --- 17.3S1 80.2E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
040300Z7 POSITION NEAR 16.1S8 82.8E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 815 NM SOUTHEAST
OF DIEGO GARCIA AND HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON
ANIMATED 031130Z8 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS. A 031907Z0 TROPICAL RAINFALL MEASURING
MISSION (TRMM) PASS DEPICTED AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION DISPLACED APPROXIMATELY 90 NM TO THE
NORTHWEST. TC 17S HAS COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODERATE
EASTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED SOUTH OF
THE SYSTEM. TC 17S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED
OVER THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 17S
SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BENEATH THE MODERATE
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR ENVIRONMENT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z4 IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
041500Z0 (DTG 041357Z0) AND 050300Z8 (DTG 050157Z8). REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (STEVE) WARNINGS (WTXS35 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GLORIA) WARNINGS (WTXS31
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S
(NORMAN) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20000304 15:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S WARNING NR 007
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z7 --- NEAR 16.3S0 82.1E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S0 82.1E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z5 --- 16.5S2 80.9E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z8 --- 16.6S3 79.6E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z6 --- 16.8S5 78.1E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z9 --- 16.8S5 76.5E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
041500Z0 POSITION NEAR 16.4S1 81.8E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED
ON ANIMATED 041130Z9 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 30 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A RAPIDLY WEAKENING SYSTEM UNDER
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 70 NM EAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE
040947Z4 TROPICAL RAINFALL MEASURING MISSION (TRMM) PASS DEPICTS AN
EXPOSED LLCC WITH POORLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION DISPLACED NORTHWEST.
THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 17S IS NORTH OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 17S IS
UNDER WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH MARGINAL OUTFLOW
ALOFT. TC 17S IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED OVER
THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 17S SHOULD
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE WITHIN THE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
BY THE 48 HOUR POINT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z7 IS
12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050300Z8 (DTG 050157Z8) AND 051500Z1 (DTG
051357Z1). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (STEVE) WARNINGS (WTXS35
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GLORIA)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 16S (NORMAN) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 050300
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S WARNING NR 008
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z5 --- NEAR 16.3S0 81.2E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S0 81.2E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z8 --- 16.3S0 80.2E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
050300Z8 POSITION NEAR 16.3S0 80.9E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S, ABOUT 730 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA,
HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON ANIMATED 042330Z2 INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS. A
041616Z8 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I) DEPICTED A FULLY
EXPOSED, WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION DISPLACED ABOUT 75 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. UW-
CIMSS ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 17S REMAINS UNDER A MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. TC 17S SHOULD DISSIPATE BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P
(STEVE) WARNINGS (WTXS35 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GLORIA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (NORMAN) WARNINGS (WTXS32
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
|
Document: 200006.htm
Updated: 26th December 2006 |
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