Tropical Cyclones [Index]

Monthly Global Tropical Cyclone Summary June 1999 [Summaries and Track Data] [Prepared by Gary Padgett]

                 MONTHLY GLOBAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY


                               JUNE, 1999


  (For general comments about the nature of these summaries, as well as
  information on how to download the tabular cyclone track files, see
  the Author's Note at the end of this summary.)


  ***********************************************************************


                             JUNE HIGHLIGHTS


  --> Quiet month overall--typhoon affects Philippines and China
      while Atlantic and Northeast Pacific tropical seasons get
      underway


  ***********************************************************************
  
                           ACTIVITY BY BASINS


  ATLANTIC (ATL) - North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico


  Activity for June:  1 tropical storm


  NOTE:  Much of the information presented below was obtained from the
  TPC/NHC discussion bulletins issued with every regular advisory.  All
  references to sustained winds imply a 1-min averaging period unless
  otherwise noted.  


                        Atlantic Activity for June
                        --------------------------


     The 1999 Atlantic tropical cyclone season got underway a little
  earlier than average when Tropical Storm Arlene developed in the
  subtropical Atlantic about 475 nm southeast of Bermuda on 11 June.
  Arlene posed a slight threat to Bermuda, but had weakened to a
  tropical depression by the time of its closest approach to the island.
  No other depressions or storms were tracked during the month, although
  there were some rather impressive tropical waves which moved off the
  west African coast.


                      Tropical Storm Arlene  (TC #01)
                               11 - 18 June
                      -------------------------------


     Arlene formed from a non-tropical disturbance along a decaying
  front.  A broad area of low pressure in association with an upper-
  level LOW was noted several hundred miles northeast of Puerto Rico
  on 8 Jun.  By the 10th the disturbance was moving slowly to the
  north-northwest and had become better organized.    On 11 Jun the
  center re-formed to the northeast near an area of deep convection
  and the system rapidly strengthened, becoming a tropical depression
  by 1800 UTC about 475 nm southeast of Bermuda.   Considerable banding
  surrounded a ragged CDO and outflow was impressive.  TPC/NHC began
  issuing advisories on the depression at 2100 UTC.


     By the morning of 12 Jun convection had increased near the center
  and Dvorak numbers from SAB and TAFB were 2.5, so the depression
  was upgraded to Tropical Storm Arlene at 1500 UTC.     Arlene was
  centered at this time about 450 nm east-southeast of Bermuda.  The
  storm initially drifted very slowly and somewhat erratically northward
  through 13/1200 UTC, at which time it made an abrupt turn to the west.
  The storm was caught at first in a weak steering environment between
  two mid/upper-level LOWs, but eventually came under the influence
  of a mid-tropospheric subtropical ridge to the north.


     Arlene's organization continued to improve through the night of
  12-13 Jun--outflow was good, there was no shearing, and the main low-
  level inflow was from the south and southeast with little to no
  inflow from a stable airmass to the north.  The storm reached its
  peak intensity of 50 kts for the first time at 0600 UTC on 13 Jun.
  Early on the 13th the cloud pattern looked quite healthy with cloud
  tops of -70 C.  But by mid-morning some shearing was evident as the
  low-level center was located near the northwest edge of the CDO.
  The Tropical Weather Discussion at 14/0300 UTC indicated that
  scatterometer data showed winds to be less than 50 kts around the
  system, so the MSW was decreased to 45 kts.   The central pressure,
  which had been previously reported at 1000 mb, was raised to 1009 mb
  based upon ship reports which showed environmental pressures to be
  quite high.


     As Arlene continued slowly westward vertical shear increased
  enough to inhibit strengthening but not enough to dissipate the storm;
  hence, Arlene maintained a more or less steady state for a couple of
  days.   A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for Bermuda at 1500 UTC on
  14 Jun as the forecast track was projected to carry the storm fairly
  near the island.  There may have been multiple centers late on the
  14th as SAB and TAFB fixes were 50 nm apart.   The first investigation
  of the storm by U. S. Air Force Reserves Hurricane Hunters around
  1200 UTC on 15 Jun found winds of 51 kts at 300 m, but a flight 12 hrs
  later found winds to 55 kts at 450 m in the northeast quadrant;
  therefore, the MSW was increased once more to 50 kts at 16/0000 UTC
  with the storm centered about 200 nm southeast of Bermuda.


     Arlene's motion was slow and erratic on 15 Jun, but by early on the
  16th the storm began to move to the north-northwest, eventually curving
  to the north and northeast around the mid-Atlantic subtropical ridge.
  Arlene's intensity began to decline later in the day as vertical
  shear increased.   Convection diminished, possibly due to the storm's
  location in an area of confluent upper-level flow to the north of a
  large upper-level cyclone to Arlene's south.  It was thought that the
  associated subsidence might be a factor in inhibiting the development
  of any new convection.     Vertical shear increased and Arlene was
  downgraded to a tropical depression at 0900 UTC on 17 Jun as it was
  moving northward about 100 nm due east of Bermuda.    The weakening 
  depression turned to the north-northeast and was losing its identity 
  by 18/0000 UTC about 250 nm northeast of Bermuda.   No winds anywhere
  near gale force were reported from Bermuda, and the lowest pressure
  there was around 1017 or 1018 mb.  (Thanks to Jack Beven for sending
  me this information.)
 
     Tropical Storm Arlene is the first known June tropical storm to
  form so far north and east in the Atlantic.  The vast majority of
  June tropical developments have been in the Gulf of Mexico and in the
  Western Caribbean.    There have been only two tropical storms to form
  in June east of the Lesser Antilles this century, and there have been
  a few that have formed in the Bahamas and over the warm Gulf Stream 
  waters just off the southeastern U. S. coast.   However, there have
  been several late season (November) and out-of-season tropical cyclone
  developments in the general area between Hispaniola and Bermuda and
  eastward for a thousand miles or so, so it is very possible that in
  pre-satellite days a tropical storm could have formed during June
  in this area and remained undetected or else considered to have been
  an extratropical gale.


     John Wallace of San Antonio, Texas, checked back through the records
  and sent me the observation that Arlene is only the second June
  tropical cyclone on record to move near Bermuda, and the first one
  to approach the island from the east.  The other June cyclone to pass
  near Bermuda was Hurricane Brenda of 1968, which passed well to the
  north of the island as it headed eastward across the Atlantic.
    
  ***********************************************************************


  NORTHEAST PACIFIC (NEP) - North Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 180


  Activity for June:  1 hurricane


  NOTE:  Much of the information presented below was obtained from the
  TPC/NHC discussion bulletins issued with every regular advisory (CPHC
  for locations west of 140W.)  All references to sustained winds imply
  a 1-min averaging period unless otherwise noted.



                  Northeast Pacific Activity for June
                  -----------------------------------


     The Eastern North Pacific tropical cyclone season was a little
  later than normal getting underway for the second year in a row.
  Since 1966, when complete operational satellite coverage began for
  this region, the median date for the beginning of the first tropical
  storm/hurricane has been 1 June.      Of the thirty-three seasons 
  from 1966 through 1998, the first cyclone formed in May in fifteen 
  years--almost 50% of the time.    The earliest beginning season on 
  record was in 1990, when Hurricane Alma formed on 12 May, while the 
  latest season to begin was in 1969, when Tropical Storm Ava formed on
  1 July.      Only three seasons have had a later starting date than
  1999 with one season (1994) beginning on the same date.  One storm,
  Hurricane Adrian, was tracked during the month.  On the average
  about two or three tropical cyclones develop during the month of
  June in the Eastern North Pacific.



                        Hurricane Adrian  (TC-01E)
                              18 - 22 June
                        --------------------------


     An area of disturbed weather south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec was
  mentioned in a Tropical Weather Outlook by TPC/NHC at 1700 UTC on
  16 Jun.  Over the next couple of days the area drifted slowly west-
  ward just offshore with the possibility of heavy rains forecast for
  the Mexican coastline east of Acapulco.   By early on 18 Jun the
  system was located about 250 nm south-southeast of Acapulco and had
  become sufficiently organized that depression advisories were
  initiated by TPC/NHC at 0900 UTC.   The depression displayed a band
  of very deep convection near and west of the low-level center with
  cloud top temperatures to -85 C.  A large mid/upper-level HIGH over
  Mexico steered the system on a fairly steady west-northwesterly course
  parallel to the Mexican coast.


     Moderate easterly shear inhibited intensification initially and
  the depression's center was difficult to track--there was considerable
  scatter in the fixes provided by different satellite analysts--but by
  the afternoon of the 18th the shear had relaxed somewhat and the
  system was strengthening, being upgraded to Tropical Storm Adrian
  at 2100 UTC.   The storm's center seemed to re-organize to the north
  a bit to a position about 150 nm south of Acapulco.     Outflow was
  well-established in all quadrants except the eastern one.   Initially
  the center was still not well-defined.     Deep convection warmed
  considerably and what had been a large CDO feature fragmented into a
  chaotic pattern during the night, but by very early on the 19th a
  small area of convection began to grow near Adrian's center and the
  tropical storm began to intensify more rapidly.


     By 1800 UTC on 19 Jun Dvorak numbers from TAFB and SAB had reached
  4.0 and 3.5, respectively--implying that Adrian was, or almost was, a
  hurricane.  However, a ship (FNCM), located 35 nm northwest of the
  center and moving south, reported winds of only 27 kts, so TPC/NHC
  waited one advisory period before upgrading Adrian to a hurricane.
  Adrian was estimated to have reached hurricane intensity by 20/0000
  UTC when it was located about 200 nm southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.
  The hurricane continued to intensify and reached its estimated peak
  MSW of 85 kts and central pressure of 975 mb at 1800 UTC on 20 Jun.
  Adrian's center was approximately 300 nm south of Cabo San Lucas
  at this time with an eye readily apparent in satellite imagery.


     However, shortly after reaching its peak intensity, Adrian entered
  a region of cooler SSTs and began to weaken rather rapidly.  Six hours
  after peaking the eye was no longer discernible and deep convection
  had diminished and cloud tops were warming.    The storm was also
  beginning to be affected by southeasterly shear.  The first visible
  satellite pictures on 21 Jun required a relocation to the east of
  the previous position.   Adrian was downgraded to a rapidly weakening
  tropical storm at 1800 UTC.  The storm was by that time only a swirl
  of low-level clouds with no associated deep convection.     A late
  observation from Socorro Island reported a wind of 70/40 kts and
  a pressure of 993 mb at 1200 UTC.


     Adrian's forward motion had slowed throughout the 21st and the
  dying cyclone became quasi-stationary roughly 300 nm south-southwest
  of Cabo San Lucas by 0600 UTC on 22 Jun.  The latest high-resolution
  cloud motion vectors from the University of Wisconsin indicated winds
  of only about 20 kts with a few spots of 30-kt winds, so Adrian was
  downgraded to a dissipating depression.   The final advisory was issued
  at 22/2100 UTC.


  ***********************************************************************


  NORTHWEST PACIFIC (NWP) - North Pacific Ocean West of Longitude 180


  Activity for June:  1 tropical depression **
                      1 typhoon


  ** - classified as a tropical depression only by PAGASA.  Neither
       JTWC nor JMA carried the system as a depression.


  NOTE: Most of the information on each cyclone's history presented in 
  the narrative will be based upon JTWC's advisories, and references to
  winds should be understood as a 1-min avg MSW unless otherwise noted.
  However, in the accompanying tracking document I have made comparisons
  of coordinates with JMA (Japan) and the Philippines (PAGASA) when their
  positions differed from JTWC's by usually 40-50 nm or more.  Also, as
  announced earlier in a separate posting, a column of 10-min avg MSW
  is included--the values being obtained from either PAGASA's or JMA's
  advisories.  A special thanks to Michael V. Padua, owner of the Typhoon
  '99 webpage, for sending me the PAGASA and JMA tracks.


     In the title line for each storm I plan to reference all the cyclone
  names/numbers I have available:  JTWC's depression number and name (if
  any), JMA's tropical storm numeric designator, and PAGASA's name for
  systems forming in or passing through their area of responsibility.



                   Northwest Pacific Activity for June
                   -----------------------------------


     Typhoon Maggie/Etang during the first week of the month was the
  only tropical cyclone of tropical storm or typhoon strength to develop
  in the Northwest Pacific basin during June.   Maggie became a fairly
  impressive typhoon with winds up to 105 kts as it passed through the
  Luzon Straits.   Also, during the first week of the month, a broad
  monsoon-type depression formed in the South China Sea.   JTWC never
  issued warnings on this system but PAGASA named the system Gening and
  issued bulletins from the 4th to the 6th of June.  Tropical Depression
  Gening remained quasi-stationary in the central South China Sea
  throughout its life with MSW estimated by PAGASA to have been 30 kts.
  A track for Gening is included in the companion tropical cyclone tracks
  file, courtesy of Michael V. Padua.



                 Typhoon Maggie/Etang  (TC-06W / TY 9903)
                               1 - 8 June
                 ----------------------------------------


     The disturbance which eventually developed into Typhoon Maggie was
  first mentioned by JTWC in their Tropical Weather Outlook at 0600 UTC
  on 27 May.  A broad area of scattered convection with no discernible
  rotation was located east of the Philippines and west of Palau.  By
  the 29th there was still no evidence of a circulation--the convection
  was being maintained by cross-equatorial southwesterlies merging with
  tropical easterlies.    A couple of days later deep convection was
  increasing, outflow was good and the system was in a region of weak
  vertical shear.   At 0000 UTC on 1 Jun PAGASA and JMA classified the
  system as a tropical depression and initiated advisories with PAGASA
  naming the depression Etang.  Tropical Depression Etang was located
  about 275 nm northwest of Palau with MSW (10-min) estimated at 30 kts.
  Interestingly, JTWC only issued a Formation Alert at 0000 UTC and
  did not initiate depression warnings until 0600 UTC, and then with
  the MSW estimated at only 25 kts (1-min) (even though the Remarks
  section in the warning indicated some synoptic observations in the
  area of winds to 30 kts).


     Dvorak T-numbers had reached 3.0 by 02/0000 UTC so JTWC upgraded
  the depression to Tropical Storm Maggie with 45-kt MSW.  Maggie/Etang
  initially moved on a general north-northwesterly course as it was
  steered by a subtropical ridge to its east.   JTWC upgraded the storm
  to a typhoon at 1800 UTC on 2 Jun when it was located approximately
  300 nm east of Catanduanes Island in the Philippines.   (PAGASA did
  not upgrade Maggie/Etang to a typhoon until 03/1800 UTC.)  By 1200
  UTC on 3 Jun the typhoon was beginning to move more west-northwestward
  as a mid-level ridge to the north strengthened.   JTWC upped the MSW
  to 90 kts at 04/0000 UTC as satellite imagery revealed a completely
  formed eyewall with an anticyclone centered directly over the typhoon.


     Peak MSW of 105 kts was reached at 0000 UTC on 5 Jun when Maggie/
  Etang was located about 125 nm east-northeast of Cabo Engano on the
  northern tip of Luzon.  During its most intense phase, Maggie's eye
  ranged from about 8 to 20 nm in diameter.     PAGASA's peak 10-min
  MSW reached 85 kts--JMA's value was predictably lower, reaching only
  75 kts.  As pressures built to the north, the typhoon slowly turned
  to more of a west-northwesterly, then westerly, course which carried
  it through the Batan Islands and the Bashi Channel.     The center
  passed around 60 nm south of the southern tip of Taiwan shortly after
  1800 UTC on 5 Jun.  Interaction with Taiwan caused Maggie to begin
  slowly weakening and the MSW had decreased to 80 kts when the center
  reached the Chinese coast just south of Shantou (or about 125 nm east
  of Hong Kong) around 06/1200 UTC.


     Instead of moving directly inland, Maggie turned to a slight
  west-southwesterly course and skimmed along the southern coast of
  China.   Still carried by JTWC as a minimal typhoon, the storm passed
  a short distance north of Hong Kong around 2000 UTC.  By 0000 UTC on
  the 7th, visible and infrared satellite imagery indicated Maggie had
  lost about all of its deep convection, and there were no synoptic
  observations (that JTWC had available, at least) of winds any greater
  than 30 kts, so the storm was downgraded from a typhoon to a tropical
  depression and the last warning issued at 07/0300 UTC when Maggie
  was located roughly 60 nm west of Hong Kong along the Chinese coast.


     There was considerable disagreement regarding the intensity of
  Maggie during its dissipating stages.   At the time JTWC downgraded
  the typhoon to a depression and dropped it, JMA and the Royal
  Observatory of Hong Kong (HKO) still carried Maggie as a rather strong
  tropical storm.   HKO downgraded the system to a tropical depression
  at 07/0600 UTC while JMA still reported the MSW at 50 kts.   However,
  by the time JMA downgraded Maggie to a depression and dropped it, HKO
  re-instated the system as a minimal tropical storm with 40-kt winds,
  presumably based upon some synoptic observations.   The rejuvenated
  Maggie was reported to be quasi-stationary off the coast of China
  approximately 120 nm southwest of Hong Kong.  The storm subsequently
  began to move northwestward and inland, and the last HKO warning at
  0600 UTC on 8 Jun placed the dissipating depression north of Wuzhou.


     The only report of fatalities due to Maggie that I could locate was
  a press report which indicated that two persons were killed in the
  Philippines near the town of Santo Domingo in Albay province southeast
  of Manila.  The deaths were due to a landslide triggered by heavy
  rains related to the typhoon.


  ***********************************************************************


  NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (NIO) - Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea


  Activity for June: 1 tropical depression **
                     1 tropical cyclone of gale intensity


  ** - classified as a depression only by IMD


  NOTE:  The tracking and intensity information for North Indian Ocean
  Basin tropical cyclones is based primarily upon operational warnings
  from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center of the U. S. Air Force and Navy
  (JTWC) at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii.  Occasionally some information may
  be gleaned from the daily Tropical Weather Outlooks and other bulletins
  issued by the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), which is the 
  WMO's RSMC for the basin.
          
     The MSW are based on a 1-min averaging period, which is used by
  all U. S. civilian and military weather services for tropical cyclone
  warnings.  For synoptic observations in the North Indian region,
  both 10-min and 3-min average winds are employed, but IMD makes no
  attempt to modify the Dvorak scale for estimating tropical cyclone
  intensity; hence, a 1-min avg MSW is implied.  In the North Indian
  basin JTWC usually does not initiate warnings until a system is
  well-organized and likely to attain tropical storm status within
  48 hours.



                   North Indian Ocean Activity for June
                   ------------------------------------
                                                            
     In contrast to June of 1998 when a disastrous tropical cyclone
  caused over 1000 deaths in northwest India, the month of June this
  year was relatively quiet.   A short-lived weak tropical cyclone
  formed in the extreme northern reaches of the Bay of Bengal near
  Calcutta and quickly moved inland on 10 June.   A few days later
  another system formed farther south in the Bay of Bengal and was
  classified as a deep depression by IMD.   This system moved inland
  around 1200 UTC on 17 June near Berhampur, or about 100 nm south-
  southwest of Cuttack.   A short track is given for this system in
  the accompanying tropical cyclone tracks file.



                       Tropical Cyclone  (TC-03B)
                       --------------------------


     The third tropical cyclone of 1999 to form in the North Indian Ocean
  basin and the second in the Bay of Bengal was a short-lived monsoon
  depression type of tropical cyclone.   A area of convection which had
  formed in the northern Bay of Bengal was first mentioned by JTWC on
  8 Jun.   Convection slowly became better organized over the next couple
  of days and a low-level circulation developed.   Convection developed
  explosively near the center on 10 Jun and JTWC issued the first warning
  on the developing cyclone at 1200 UTC.  The center was located just off
  the west end of the mouths of the Ganges River, or about 100 nm south
  of Calcutta.   Steered by a subtropical ridge to the north, the system
  moved west-northwestward and made landfall around 1500 UTC about 90 nm
  southwest of Calcutta.


     By 11/0000 UTC the cyclone was inland and weakening about 150 nm
  west of Calcutta.  The system was intensifying quickly at the time
  the first warning was issued, and based upon an analysis of satellite
  imagery, the MSW likely reached 40-45 kts around the time the cyclone
  made landfall.


  ***********************************************************************


  SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN (SIO) - South Indian Ocean West of Longitude 90E


  Activity for June:  No tropical cyclones


  ***********************************************************************


  AUSTRALIAN REGION (AUG) - From Longitude 90E Eastward to Longitude 160E


  Activity for June:  No tropical cyclones


  ***********************************************************************


  SOUTHWEST PACIFIC (SWP) - South Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 160E


  Activity for June: No tropical cyclones


  ***********************************************************************


                              EXTRA FEATURE


     In order to shorten the amount of typing in preparing the narrative
  material, I have been in the habit of freely using abbreviations and
  acronyms.   I have tried to define most of these with the first usage
  in a given summary, but I may have missed one now and then.  Most of
  these are probably understood by a majority of readers but perhaps a
  few aren't clear to some.  To remedy this I developed a Glossary of
  Abbreviations and Acronyms which I included in the July, 1998 summary.
  I will include this glossary from time to time, primarily in "lean"
  months without a lot of tropical cyclone activity to cover.  But if
  anyone missed receiving it and wishes to obtain a copy, send me an
  e-mail privately and I'll forward them a copy.


  ***********************************************************************


  AUTHOR'S NOTE:  This summary should be considered a very preliminary 
  overview of the tropical cyclones that occur in each month. The cyclone
  tracks (provided separately) will generally be based upon operational
  warnings issued by the various tropical cyclone warning centers.  The
  information contained therein may differ somewhat from the tracking and
  intensity information obtained from a "best-track" file which is based
  on a detailed post-seasonal analysis of all available data. Information
  on where to find official "best-track" files from the various warning
  centers will be passed along from time to time.


    The track files are not being sent via e-mail.  They can be retrieved
  in the following manner:


       (a) FTP to:  hrd-type42.nhc.noaa.gov [140.90.176.206]
       (b) Login as: anonymous
       (c) For a password use your e-mail address
       (d) Go to "data" subdirectory (Type: cd data)
       (e) Set file type to ASCII (Type: ascii)
       (f) Transfer file (Type: get remote_file_name local_file_name )
           (The files will be named with an obvious nomenclature--using
           June as an example:   jun99.tracks)
       (g) To exit FTP, type: quit


    Both the summaries and the track files are standard text files
  created in DOS editor.  Download to disk and use a viewer such as
  Notepad or DOS editor to view the files.


     The first summary in this series covered the month of October,
  1997.   If anyone wishes to retrieve any of the previous summaries,
  they may be downloaded from the aforementioned FTP site at HRD.  The
  summary files are catalogued with the nomenclature:  jun99.sum, for
  example.


    Back issues can also be obtained from the following websites
  (courtesy of Michael Bath, Michael V. Padua, Tom Berg, and Michael
  Pitt):


    http://australiansevereweather.com/cyclones/>
    http://www.geocities.com/capecanaveral/6825>
    http://www.hcane.com/tropcl.html>
    http://www.qisfl.net/home/hurricanemike>


     Another website where much information about tropical cyclones may
  be found is the website for the UK Meteorological Office.  Their site
  contains a lot of statistical information about tropical cyclones
  globally on a monthly basis.  The URL is:


    http://www.met-office.gov.uk/sec2/sec2cyclone/sec2cyclone.html>


                  TROPICAL CYCLONE REPORTS AVAILABLE


     I have discovered that JTWC now has available on its new website
  the complete Annual Tropical Cyclone Report for 1997 (1996-1997 season
  for the Southern Hemisphere).   Also, tracks only for the 1998 tropical
  cyclones are currently available.


     The URL is:  http://199.10.200.33/jtwc.html>


     Also, TPC/NHC has available on its webpage nice "technicolor"
  tracking charts for the 1998 Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific
  tropical cyclones; also, preliminary storm reports for all the 1998
  Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific cyclones are now available.


     The URL is:  http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/1998.html>


  Prepared by: Gary Padgett
  E-mail:  [email protected]
  Phone:  334-222-5327 (nights & weekends) / 850-882-2594 (weekdays)


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