Tropical
Cyclones
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Tropical Cyclone GWENDA [Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere][Summaries and Track Data] |
WTXS21 PGTW 990404 06:30z RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.8S0 124.3E0 TO 13.5S9 116.3E1 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 040530Z2 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 11.9S1 123.3E9. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO ORGANIZE DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS. CYCLONIC ROTATION OF THE AREA IS EVIDENT IN ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY. PREVIOUS SYNOPTIC DATA HAS ALSO SUGGESTED A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION. THE AREA IS WITHIN A REGION OF WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR AND DIRECTLY BENEATH THE AXIS OF THE 200MB RIDGE. THIS HAS PROVIDED IMPROVED OUTFLOW ALOFT ALLOWING FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS IS ESTIMATED AT 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS NOW UPGRADED TO GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 050630Z4.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 990405 03:00z SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32S WARNING NR 001 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 050000Z5 --- NEAR 12.2S5 120.8E1 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 12.2S5 120.8E1 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z8 --- 12.7S0 119.2E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z6 --- 13.4S8 117.8E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 040 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z9 --- 14.3S8 116.4E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 050 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z7 --- 15.2S8 115.1E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 060 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 050300Z8 POSITION NEAR 12.3S6 120.4E7. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32S HAS DEVELOPED NORTHWEST OF AUSTRALIA AND HAS TRACKED TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 8 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 042330Z2 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A PREVIOUS TRMM IMAGE. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS). TC 32S HAS BEEN STEERED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN APPROACHING MID LATTITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY WEST OF THE SYSTEM MAY BEGIN TO FORCE A MORE SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK NEAR THE 48 HOUR FORECAST POSITION. CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF TC 32S. WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR AND GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT SUPPORTED BY THE 200 MB RIDGE AXIS WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY NEAR CLIMATOLOGICALLY DURING THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z5 IS 12 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS NAVPACMETOCCEN 040621Z APR 99 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS22 PGTW 040630 ) NEXT WARNINGS AT 051500Z1 (DTG 051351Z5) AND 060300Z9 (DTG 060151Z3). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S (FREDERIC-EVRINA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 990405 15:00z 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32S (GWENDA) WARNING NR 002 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 051200Z8 --- NEAR 13.1S5 118.5E5 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 065 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 13.1S5 118.5E5 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z6 --- 14.2S7 116.5E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 085 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z9 --- 15.4S0 114.7E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 025 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 105 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z7 --- 16.8S5 113.1E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 030 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 115 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z0 --- 18.1S0 111.9E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 035 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 125 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 051500Z1 POSITION NEAR 13.4S8 118.0E0. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32S (GWENDA) HAS TRACKED TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 11 KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 051130Z0 SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON A SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS). TC 32S HAS TRACKED UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. THIS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE STEERING THE SYSTEM IN GENERALLY THE SAME DIRECTION DURING THE INITIAL 24 HOURS. AN APPROACHING MID- LATTITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TURNING TC 32S (GWENDA) MORE TOWARDS THE SOUTH AFTER THIS PERIOD AND THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. TC 32S HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED AND CONSOLIDATED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. INCREASED VERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN INHIBITING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AFTER THIS PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z8 IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060300Z9 (DTG 060153Z5) AND 061500Z2 (DTG 061353Z8). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S (FREDERIC- EVRINA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 990406 03:00z SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32S (GWENDA) WARNING NR 003 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 060000Z6 --- NEAR 14.6S1 117.2E1 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 115 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: NEAR 14.6S1 117.2E1 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z9 --- 16.0S7 115.8E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 030 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 140 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z7 --- 17.5S3 114.4E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 030 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 140 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z0 --- 19.1S1 113.0E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 040 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 145 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z8 --- 20.7S9 111.8E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 040 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 145 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 060300Z9 POSITION NEAR 14.9S4 116.9E7. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32S (GWENDA) HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD NORTHWEST OF AUSTRALIA AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED UPON 052330Z3 ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 AND 75 KNOTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TC 32S CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE IS WEAKENED BY AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. ALTHOUGH TC 32S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT THE NORMAL RATE, INCREASED VERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN INHIBITING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF TC 32S. INDEED, A LOW PROBABILITY FORECAST SCENARIO EXISTS IN WHICH TC 32S UNDERGOES SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AFTER 36 HOURS AND BEGINS TO WEAKEN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z6 IS 18 FEET. THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER IS SWITCHING TO SIX-HOURLY WARNINGS ON THIS SYSTEM UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z5 (DTG 060753Z1), 061500Z2 (DTG 061353Z8), 062100Z9 (DTG 061953Z4) AND 070300Z0 (DTG 070153Z6). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S (FREDERIC) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLYUPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 990406 09:00z SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32S (GWENDA) WARNING NR 004 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 060600Z2 --- NEAR 15.4S0 116.9E7 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 115 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 15.4S0 116.9E7 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z5 --- 16.6S3 116.0E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 030 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 130 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z3 --- 18.0S9 115.3E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 030 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 140 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z6 --- 19.3S3 114.7E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 040 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 170 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 150 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z4 --- 20.7S9 114.5E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 040 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 160 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z5 --- 23.9S4 115.0E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 030 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 115 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 060900Z5 POSITION NEAR 15.7S3 116.7E5. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32S (GWENDA) HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD NORTHWEST OF AUSTRALIA AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED UPON 065330Z7 ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 KNOTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TC 32S CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THEN MORE SOUTHERLY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE IS WEAKENED BY AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. TC 32S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, WHEN INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO INHIBIT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, THEN WEAKEN IT RAPIDLY. LANDFALL TO THE EAST OF EXMOUTH GULF IS EXPECTED WITHIN 60 HOURS AND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z2 IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z2 (DTG 061353Z8), 062100Z9 (DTG 061953Z4), 070300Z0 (DTG 070153Z6) AND 070900Z6 (DTG 070753Z2). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S (FREDERIC) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 990406 15:00z SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32S (GWENDA) WARNING NR 005 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 061200Z9 --- NEAR 16.2S9 116.6E4 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 040 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 115 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S9 116.6E4 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z7 --- 18.1S0 116.0E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 040 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 120 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z0 --- 20.0S2 115.5E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 040 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 140 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z8 --- 21.8S1 115.5E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 040 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 140 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z1 --- 23.7S2 115.6E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 010 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 065 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z2 --- 27.3S2 118.0E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 061500Z2 POSITION NEAR 16.7S4 116.5E3. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32S (GWENDA) HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD NORTHWEST OF AUSTRALIA AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED UPON 061130Z1 ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 KNOTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TC 32S CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE IS WEAKENED BY AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. TC 32S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS, WHEN INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO INHIBIT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, THEN WEAKEN GWENDA RAPIDLY. LANDFALL OVER ONSLOW IS EXPECTED WITHIN 48 HOURS AND WILL ENHANCE THE WEAKENING EFFECTS OF THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z9 IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 0622100Z1 (DTG 061953Z4), 070300Z0 (DTG 070153Z6), 070900Z6 (DTG 070753Z2), AND 071500Z3 (DTG 071353Z9). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S (FREDERIC) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 990406 21:00z SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32S (GWENDA) WARNING NR 006 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 061800Z5 --- NEAR 16.8S5 116.6E4 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 040 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM WEST SEMICIRCLE 115 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: NEAR 16.8S5 116.6E4 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z3 --- 18.0S9 116.3E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM WEST SEMICIRCLE 040 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM WEST SEMICIRCLE 120 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z6 --- 19.2S2 116.1E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM WEST SEMICIRCLE 040 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM WEST SEMICIRCLE 140 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z4 --- 20.6S8 116.0E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 040 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 140 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z7 --- 22.1S5 116.0E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 010 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 065 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z8 --- 26.3S1 117.5E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 062100Z9 POSITION NEAR 17.1S9 116.5E3. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 32S (GWENDA) HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD OFF THE NORTHWEST COAST OF AUSTRALIA AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED UPON 061730Z7 ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 125 AND 140 KNOTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TC 32S CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AND HAS A 16 NM DIAMETER EYE, BUT SOME DEEP CONVECTION IS NOW BEING DRAWN TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BEGINS TO INCREASE. THE TRACK PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED AS TROPICAL CYCLONE 32S CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, BUT THE FORECAST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO THE RECENT SOUTHWARD JOG IN THE TRACK. UW-CIMSS SHEAR CHARTS INDICATE THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS INCREASING OVER TC 32S, WHICH WOULD INHIBIT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. HENCE, TC 32S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND THEN REMAIN AT THAT INTENSITY BY THE 48 HOUR FORECAST POSITION. THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN REVERSED FOR THE FIRST THREE WARNING POSITIONS DUE TO SATELLITE ANALYSIS OF THE CLOUD SHIELD WHICH SHOWS MORE DEEP CONVECTION WEST OF THE SYSTEM. VE HEIGHT AT 061800Z5 IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070300Z0 (DTG 070153Z6), 070900Z6 (DTG 070753Z2), 071500Z3 (DTG 071353Z9) AND 072100Z0 (DTG 071953Z5). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S (FREDERIC-EVRINA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 990407 03:00z SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32S (GWENDA) WARNING NR 007 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 070000Z7 --- NEAR 17.4S2 116.8E6 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 040 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 115 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 17.4S2 116.8E6 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z0 --- 18.5S4 116.8E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 040 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 120 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z8 --- 19.8S8 116.8E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 040 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 140 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z1 --- 21.3S6 117.0E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 040 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 140 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z9 --- 22.9S3 117.4E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 065 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 070300Z0 POSITION NEAR 17.7S5 116.8E6. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 32S (GWENDA) HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD OFF THE NORTHWEST COAST OF AUSTRALIA AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED UPON 062330Z4 ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 125 AND 140 KNOTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND TC 32S IS BEGINNING TO ELONGATE AS THE EYE FEATURE BECOMES LESS WELL DEFINED. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32S HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE 200 MB RIDGE AXIS AND MUCH OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS NOW DRAWING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. HENCE, TC 32S HAS PROBABLY PEAKED IN INTENSITY AND IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES SOUTHWARD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z7 IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z6 (DTG 070753Z2), 071500Z3 (DTG 071353Z9), 072100Z0 (DTG 071953Z5) AND 080300Z1 (DTG 080153Z7). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S (FREDERIC-EVRINA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING OF THIS SYSTEM.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 990407 09:00z SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32S (GWENDA) WARNING NR 008 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 070600Z3 --- NEAR 18.6S5 117.4E3 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 040 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 100 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 18.6S5 117.4E3 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z6 --- 20.4S6 118.1E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 030 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 085 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z4 --- 22.1S5 119.1E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM OVER WATER 025 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 060 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 070900Z6 POSITION NEAR 19.0S0 117.6E5. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 32S (GWENDA) HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD OFF THE NORTHWEST COAST OF AUSTRALIA AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED UPON 070530Z5 ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 AND 115 KNOTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO SHORE. MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS BEING ADVECTED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LAND FALL IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS WILL WEAKEN GWENDA RAPIDLY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z3 IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 071500Z3 (DTG 071353Z9), 072100Z0 (DTG 071953Z5) AND 080300Z1 (DTG 080153Z7). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S (FREDERIC-EVRINA) WARNING (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR FINAL UPDATE.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 990407 15:00z SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32S (GWENDA) WARNING NR 009 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 071200Z0 --- NEAR 19.6S6 118.2E2 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 030 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 090 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 19.6S6 118.2E2 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z8 --- 21.2S5 119.3E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM OVER WATER RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 055 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z1 --- 23.3S8 120.1E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 045 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 071500Z3 POSITION NEAR 20.0S2 118.5E5. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 32S (GWENDA) HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD OFF THE NORTHWEST COAST OF AUSTRALIA AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED UPON 071130Z2 ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 AND 115 KNOTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS WEAKENING AS IT BEGINS TO MAKE LANDFALL. STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LANDFALL SHOULD DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z0 IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z0 (DTG 071953Z5), 080300Z1 (DTG 080153Z7), AND 080900Z7 (DTG 080753Z3). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S (FREDERIC-EVRINA) WARNING (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR FINAL UPDATE.// ========================================================================= WTXS32 PGTW 990407 21:00z SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32S (GWENDA) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 071800Z6 --- NEAR 20.7S9 119.6E7 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 17 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 030 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 20.7S9 119.6E7 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z4 --- 22.5S9 120.5E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 072100Z0 POSITION NEAR 21.1S4 119.8E9. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 32S (GWENDA) HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. TC 32S MADE LANDFALL ABOUT 25NM EAST OF PORT HEDLAND, ALONG THE NORTHWEST COAST OF AUSTRALIA. LANDFALL TIME IS ESTIMATED NEAR 071600Z4 AND INTENSITY AT LANDFALL IS ESTIMATED AT 60 KNOTS. THE CURRENT WARNING POSITION AND CURRENT INTENSITY (50 KNOTS) ARE BASED ON A COMBINATION OF 071730Z8 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AVAILABLE SYNOPTIC DATA. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WEAKEN DUE TO LANDFALL AND INCREASING VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. TC 32S IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHWARD AND DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU). THE SYSTEM WILL BECLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
Document: gwenda.htm
Updated: 26th December 2006 |
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