[Index]
Tropical Cyclone DAMIEN-BIRENDA
[Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere][Summaries and Track Data]
| Tropical
Cyclones
[Index] |
Tropical Cyclone DAMIEN-BIRENDA [Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere][Summaries and Track Data] |
WTXS21 PGTW 990122 01:00z COR
220057Z JAN 99//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 140 NM RADIUS OF 12.6S9 110.3E5 WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 220000Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.6S9 110.3E5. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: ANIMATED INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE
THIS DISTURBANCE HAS INCREASED ITS CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION DESPITE
MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM THE EAST. IF VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR WEAKENS, THIS SYSTEM IS IN AN EXTREMELY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT IN WHICH TO DEVELOP. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 230100Z6.
4. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: TO REMOVE REFERENCE TO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT IN A DIFFERENT BASIN.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 990122 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S WARNING NR 001
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
221200Z7 --- NEAR 13.4S8 107.7E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: NEAR 13.4S8 107.7E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z5 --- 14.0S5 106.4E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z8 --- 14.9S4 105.0E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z6 --- 15.8S4 103.5E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z9 --- 16.7S4 101.8E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
221500Z0 POSITION NEAR 13.6S0 107.4E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 7 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS SOUTH OF JAVA. THE WARNING POSITION AND
INTENSITY ARE BASED UPON A 221130Z9 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGE WITH
A CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 30 KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE AND
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE TC 15S HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER
ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. ALTHOUGH ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND THE UW-CIMSS SHEAR CHARTS INDICATE THE AREA OF
CONVECTION IS UNDERGOING SOME VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, THE ANIMATED
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL WRAPPED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION WITH CONVECTION JUST SLIGHTLY SHEARED TO THE
SOUTHWEST. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S SHOULD TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S IS FORECAST TO ONLY
SLOWLY INTENSIFY DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR. THE WIND RADII
ARE BASED ON A COMBINATION OF CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE SIZED
SYSTEM AND SATELLITE ANALYSIS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
221200Z7 IS 10 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS
NAVPACMETOCCEN 220051Z JAN 99 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 220100). NEXT WARNINGS AT 230300Z8 (DTG
230157Z8) AND 231500Z1 (DTG 231357Z1). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
11P (DANI) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (OLINDA) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P
WARNINGS(WTPS33 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 990123 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S WARNING NR 002
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
230000Z5 --- NEAR 14.6S1 104.9E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM WEST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6S1 104.9E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z8 --- 15.5S1 102.8E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM WEST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z6 --- 16.5S2 101.0E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z9 --- 17.5S3 99.5E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
145 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z7 --- 18.8S7 97.8E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 190 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
165 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
230300Z8 POSITION NEAR 14.8S3 104.4E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S HAS TRACKED TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT
12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 222330Z2 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS).
TC 15S HAS UNDERGONE MODERATE SHEAR, DISPLACING THE MAJORITY OF THE
CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. TC 15S HAS
TRACKED UNDER THE STEERING FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THIS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN THE DOMINANT
STEERING FORCE, AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE SYSTEMS ON ITS WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD COURSE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 15S IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO A LOWERER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT, ALLOWING FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION. THEREFORE, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INCREASE
INTENSITY NEAR CLIMATOLOGICALLY AFTER THE 12 HOUR PERIOD. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 14 FEET. REFER TO WWXS31 PGFW
FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 231500Z1
(DTG 231357Z1) AND 240300Z9 (DTG 240157Z9). REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 11P (DANI) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (OLINDA) WARNINGS (WTXS32
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P
(PETE) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 990123 15:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN) WARNING NR 003 RELOCATED
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z8 --- NEAR 14.0S5 104.5E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 14.0S5 104.5E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z6 --- 14.3S8 103.5E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z9 --- 14.8S3 102.3E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z7 --- 15.6S2 100.8E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 170 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
140 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z0 --- 16.4S1 99.1E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
160 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
231500Z1 POSITION NEAR 14.1S6 104.2E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN) WAS RELOCATED NORTHWARD BASED ON A
TROPICAL RAINFALL MEASURING MISSION (TRMM) MICROWAVE IMAGER PASS AT
230136Z5. TC 15S (DAMIEN) HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 5 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 231130Z0 INFRARED AND
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ANALYSIS. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS).
ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TC 15S HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
AND MORE CONSOLIDATED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATION ALSO
INDICATES MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS ON THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE SYSTEM AND LIGHT TO MODERATE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA. TC 15S HAS TRACKED UNDER THE STEERING FLOW OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 15S (DAMIEN) IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THIS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. TC 15S IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
A LOWER WINDSHEAR ENVIRONMENT ALLOWING FURTHER INTENSIFICATION
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
231200Z8 IS 16 FEET. REFER TO WWIO31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z9 (DTG 240157Z9) AND 241500Z2
(DTG 241357Z2). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (DANI) WARNING (WTPS31
PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (OLINDA)
WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 14P (PETE) WARNINGS (WTPS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 990124 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN) WARNING NR 004
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z6 --- NEAR 14.8S3 102.6E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S3 102.6E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z9 --- 15.5S1 101.0E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z7 --- 16.3S0 99.5E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 165 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
140 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z0 --- 17.1S9 98.1E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
160 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z8 --- 18.0S9 96.9E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 195 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
175 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
240300Z9 POSITION NEAR 15.0S6 102.2E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN) HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 7 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 232330Z3
INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS).
TC 15S (DAMIEN) HAS CONTINUED TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE DOMINANT STEERING FORCE FOR THE
SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THEREFORE, TC 15S (DAMIEN) IS
FORECASTED TO CONTINUE ON ITS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD. GRADUALLY, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE RIDGE MOVES SLOWLY EAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES GOOD OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADS ALOFT. DECREASING SHEAR HAS ALSO
ALLOWED FOR A MORE SYMMETRIC DEVELOPMENT OF THE CONVECTION AROUND
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. INFRARED IMAGERY HAS OCASSIONALLY
INDICATED A WARM CENTER, OR EYE-LIKE FEATURE, BRIEFLY APPEARING IN
SOME IMAGES. TC 15S (DAMIEN) IS THEREFORE FORECASTED TO CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY NEAR CLIMATOLOGICALLY THROUGOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z6 IS 18 FEET. REFER TO
WWPN30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT
241500Z2 (DTG 241357Z2) AND 250300Z0 (DTG 250157Z0). REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (OLINDA) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (PETE) WARNINGS
(WTPS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 990124 15:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN) WARNING NR 005
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z9 --- NEAR 15.7S3 100.0E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7S3 100.0E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z7 --- 16.4S1 97.8E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z0 --- 17.3S1 95.9E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 165 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
140 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z8 --- 18.1S0 94.1E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
160 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z1 --- 18.9S8 92.7E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 195 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
175 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
241500Z2 POSITION NEAR 15.9S5 99.5E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN) HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
241130Z1 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY (65
KNOTS) IS BASED ON A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T5.0 (90 KNOTS) AND T4.5 (75 KNOTS). TROPICAL CYCLONE
15S (DAMIEN) DEVELOPED A WELL-DEFINED EYE AT 240000Z6, AND
MAINTAINED IT UNTIL 240930Z8. INFRARED IMAGERY NOW INDICATES AN
EMBEDDED CENTER. ANIMATED INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE
THE SHEAR HAS LESSENED OVER THE SYSTEM AND OUTFLOW IS GOOD OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CYCLONE. TC 15S (DAMIEN) HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE
DOMINANT STEERING FORCE FOR THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
BETWEEN 36-48 HOURS TC 15S WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO A WEAKENED REGION
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST. IT IS
FORECAST TO MAINTAIN A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE PERIOD
AND IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AS IT MOVES INTO THIS WEAKENED FLOW REGIME.
AT THE 48 HOUR POSITION AN ALTERNATE TRACK SCENERIO EXISTS WHERE TC
15S MAY NOT MOVE THROUGH THE WEAKENED RIDGE ON THE SOUTHWESTWARD
TRACK, BUT TURN MORE WESTWARD AND REMAIN IN THE DOMINANT STEERING
FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST. DECREASING VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR HAS ALLOWED TC 15S TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS AND ALLOWED FOR A MORE SYMMETRIC DEVELOPMENT OF THE CONVECTION
AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 15S (DAMIEN) IS
THEREFORE FORECASTED TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY NEAR CLIMATOLOGICALLY
THROUGOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
241200Z9 22 FEET. REFER TO WWIO31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250300Z0 (DTG 250157Z0) AND 251500Z3
(DTG 251357Z3). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (OLINDA) WARNINGS
(WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
14P (PETE) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 990125 03:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN) WARNING NR 006
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z7 --- NEAR 16.1S8 97.9E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S8 97.9E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z0 --- 16.2S9 95.4E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z8 --- 16.4S1 93.2E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 165 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
140 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z1 --- 16.6S3 90.9E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
160 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z9 --- 17.0S8 88.8E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 195 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
175 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
250300Z0 POSITION NEAR 16.1S8 97.3E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15SW (DAMIEN) HAS TRACKED TOWARDS THE WEST AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
242300Z1 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON 242300Z1 SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77
KNOTS). TC 15S (DAMIEN) HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK UNDER THE STEERING
FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THIS RIDGE APPEARS VERY
PRONOUNCED AND IS FORECAST TO ALLOW TC 15S (DAMIEN) TO MAINTAIN
A MOSTLY WESTWARD TRACK. AFTER THE 24 HOUR PERIOD, THE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TRACKING MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE AND IN RESPONSE TO THE SYSTEMS OWN
SOUTHWESTWARD STEERING COMPONENT. CONDITIONS REMAIN MOSTLY FAVORABLE
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, BUT ENTRAINING COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS FROM
THE SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF INTENSIFICATION. TC 15S
(DAMIEN) IS THEREFORE FORECAST TO INTENSIFY MODERATELY THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z7
IS 23 FEET. REFER TO WWIO30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 251500Z3 (DTG 251357Z3) AND 260300Z1
(DTG 260157Z1). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (OLINDA) WARNINGS
(WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
14P (PETE) WARNINGS (WTPS33 PGTW)FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 990125 15:00z AMD
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN) WARNING NR 007A AMENDED RELOCATED
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
251200Z0 --- NEAR 15.9S5 95.8E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9S5 95.8E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z8 --- 15.4S0 93.7E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z1 --- 15.2S8 91.5E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z9 --- 15.3S9 89.3E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z2 --- 15.7S3 87.1E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
251500Z3 POSITION NEAR 15.8S4 95.3E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN) HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AND BECOME
DISORGANIZED AS CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED AND VERTICAL SHEAR HAS
INCREASED. A 250954Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES THE CENTER OF
TC 15S (DAMIEN) IS FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED.
SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES A LARGE FIELD OF COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS HAS WRAPPED INTO THE SYSTEM CENTER ACTING TO
DECREASE THE CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER, TC 15S (DAMIEN) HAS A
WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND AT LEAST MODERATE CONVECTION
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEAR THE SYSTEM CENTER FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS DESPITE REMAINING IN MODERATE SHEAR CONDITIONS. DUE TO THE
DECOUPLING OF THE LOW-LEVEL AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS, WE HAVE
BROUGHT OUR FORECAST TRACK FARTHER NORTH IN LINE WITH THE
DYNAMIC MODELS WHICH INDICATE THE DOMINANT STEERING FLOW WILL BE
DUE TO STRONG EASTERLIES NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE LOCATED TO ITS SOUTH. TC 15S (DAMIEN IS ALSO EXPECTED TO
STEADILY DECREASE IN INTENSITY DUE TO THE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
THAT IT IS MOVING THROUGH. HOWEVER, IF TC 15S SURVIVES THE
VERTICAL SHEAR AND STABLE LOW-LEVEL INFLOW FROM THE SOUTH, THEN
TC 15S MAY REINTENSIFY SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS IT MOVES INTO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT NEAR 85E
LONGITUDE WHERE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS CUT OFF. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
251200Z0 IS 23 FEET. JUSTIFICATION FOR AMENDMENT: RELOCATION OF THE
SYSTEM CENTER FARTHER NORTH AND A CHANGE IN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY
FORECASTS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260300Z1 (DTG 260157Z1) AND 261500Z4
(DTG 261357Z4). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (PETE) WARNINGS
(WTPS33 PGTW)FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
16P WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 990126 03:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN) WARNING NR 008
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
260000Z8 --- NEAR 15.2S8 94.4E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2S8 94.4E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z1 --- 14.8S3 92.4E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z9 --- 14.8S3 89.9E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z2 --- 15.0S6 87.5E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z0 --- 15.4S0 85.0E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
260300Z1 POSITION NEAR 15.1S7 93.9E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN) CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD OVER
THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPERIENCING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WAS PARTLY EXPOSED.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DEEP CONVECTION
HAS REFORMED OVER THE SYSTEM CENTER DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS.
THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 252330Z5 INFRARED
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) AND EXTRAPOLATION
FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN) IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF EASTERLY
WINDS EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY WEAKEN DUE TO VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND THE ENTRAINMENT OF
STABLE LOW-LEVEL AIR FROM THE SOUTH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 260000Z8 IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 261500Z4 (DTG 261357Z4)
AND 270300Z2 (DTG 270157Z2). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (PETE)
WARNING (WTPS33 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 990126 15:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
261200Z1 --- NEAR 14.3S8 94.1E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: NEAR 14.3S8 94.1E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z9 --- 13.5S9 93.4E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z2 --- 13.1S5 92.1E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z0 --- 12.8S1 90.9E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z3 --- 12.7S0 89.3E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
261500Z4 POSITION NEAR 14.1S6 93.9E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (DAMIEN) HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 5
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE
BASED UPON 261130Z3 ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH CURRENT
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 AND 65 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED
AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE TC 15S (DAMIEN) REMAINS A
SHEARED SYSTEM WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION 70NM TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S IS TRACKING
NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
ORIENTATED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST, WHICH IS ALLOWING FOR A MORE
NORTHWESTWARD COURSE FOR TC 15S. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND THEN TRACK MORE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES
ORIENTATED MORE WEST TO EAST. MEANWHILE, TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN)
SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND THE ENTRAINMENT OF THE STABLE LOW-LEVEL AIR FROM THE SOUTH.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z1 IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 270300Z2 (DTG 270157Z2) AND 271500Z5 (DTG 271357Z5). REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 990127 03:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN) WARNING NR 010
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
270000Z9 --- NEAR 14.4S9 93.5E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 14.4S9 93.5E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z2 --- 14.1S6 92.5E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
105 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z0 --- 14.0S5 91.4E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z3 --- 14.0S5 90.3E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z1 --- 14.1S6 89.1E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z3 --- 14.4S9 86.2E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
270300Z2 POSITION NEAR 14.3S8 93.2E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN) HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
THIS SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED ITS OVERALL INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS AND HAS INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 262330Z6 INFRARED
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 55 KNOTS. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S
(DAMIEN) IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE ENVIRONMENTAL STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH. TC 15S (DAMIEN) IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY SLOWLY THROUGH 24 HOURS THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY IN
AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. WIND RADII ARE
ADJUSTED BASED ON 270000Z9 SHIP SYNOPTIC DATA. FUTURE WARNINGS WILL
BE ISSUED EVERY 06 HOURS, VALID OUT TO 72 HOURS UNTIL FURTHER
NOTICE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z9 IS 21 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 270900Z8 (DTG 270757Z8), 271500Z5 (DTG 271357Z5),
272100Z2 (DTG 271957Z1) AND 270300Z2 (DTG 270157Z2). REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P WARNING (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING
ON THIS SYSTEM.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 990127 09:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
270600Z5 --- NEAR 14.3S8 93.1E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S8 93.1E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z8 --- 14.2S7 92.2E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
105 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z6 --- 14.1S6 90.9E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z9 --- 14.1S6 89.7E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z7 --- 14.3S8 88.3E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z9 --- 14.5S0 85.6E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
270900Z8 POSITION NEAR 14.3S8 92.9E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN) HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON ANIMATED
270530Z7 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
UPON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS. TROPICAL
CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN) CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH AND SHOULD CONTINUE
TO DO SO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH TC 15S
(DAMIEN) REMAINS UNDER MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, DEEP CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO FORM JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE SHEAR AFFECTING
TC 15S (DAMIEN) HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. INDEED,
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY NOW DEPICTS TC 15S AS A FULLY EXPOSED LLCC
WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED 45NM TO THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER, SINCE TC
15S (DAMIEN) CONTINUES TO REDEVELOP DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LLCC
DURING THE DIURNAL CYCLE, TC 15S (DAMIEN) IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A 55
TO 65 KNOT SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z5 IS 21
FEET. REFER TO WWIO30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 272100Z2 (DTG 271957Z1) AND 280900Z9 (DTG 280757Z9).
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 990127 15:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
271200Z2 --- NEAR 14.5S0 92.6E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5S0 92.6E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z0 --- 14.6S1 91.6E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
105 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z3 --- 14.7S2 90.5E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z1 --- 14.7S2 89.4E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z4 --- 14.7S2 88.4E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z6 --- 14.6S1 85.7E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
271500Z5 POSITION NEAR 14.5S0 92.3E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN) HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON ANIMATED
271130Z4 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
UPON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 TO 60KNOTS.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S
(DAMIEN) CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
THE 700 MB RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN) IS
LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF A WEAKNESS IN THE 700 MB RIDGE, WHICH
MAY DRIVE A SLIGHT SOUTHWESTWARD DIP IN THE FORECAST TRACK FOR THE
NEXT 12 HOURS. HOWEVER, THE NOGAPS MODEL SHOWS THE 700 MB RIDGE
BUILDS TO THE SOUTH OF TC 15S (DAMIEN) BY THE 24 HOUR FORECAST
POSITION, WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN ALLOW FOR A MORE WESTWARD TRACK.
HENCE, THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH
WHILE THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS BASICALLY UNCHANGED,
CONTINUING THE WESTWARD TRACK. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM IS STILL EXPERIENCING MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, BUT
THE CONVECTION IS NOW SHEARED ONLY 30 NM TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS NOW GOOD TO THE
NORTHWEST AND TO THE SOUTHEAST. HENCE THE FORECAST INTENSITY REMAINS
55 TO 65 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z2 IS 21
FEET. REFER TO WWIO31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 272100Z2 (DTG 271957Z1), 280300Z3 (DTG 280157Z3),
280900Z9 (DTG 280757Z9) AND 281500Z6 (DTG 281357Z6). REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS34 PGTW 990127 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN) WARNING NR 013
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z8 --- NEAR 14.9S4 91.9E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S4 91.9E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z6 --- 15.5S1 90.8E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z9 --- 15.9S5 89.5E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z7 --- 16.1S8 88.1E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z0 --- 16.1S8 86.4E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z2 --- 15.6S2 83.5E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
272100Z2 POSITION NEAR 15.1S7 91.6E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN) HAS TRACKED TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST
AT 7 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 271730Z0 ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5
(55 KNOTS). TC 15S (DAMIEN) HAS TRACKED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK DUE TO VERTICAL SHEARING ON THE SYSTEM.
UPPER LEVEL STEERING IS TENDING TO DIRECT THE CONVECTION TOWARDS
THE SOUTHWEST, WHILE A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXISTS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM AT THE MID LEVELS. THE WEAKNESS MAY PROVIDE
WEAKER BUT MORE WESTWARD STEERING FLOW FOR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION.
TC 15S (DAMIEN) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A MORE SOUTHWESTWARD
TRACK OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS WITHIN THE STEERING FLOW OF THE UPPER
LEVELS DRIVING THE CONVECTION. AFTER THE 12 TO 24 HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD, TC 15S (DAMIEN) IS EXPECTED TO TRACK BACK TOWARDS THE WEST.
THE SHEARING ON THE SYSTEM WILL CAUSE THE MID AND LOWER LEVEL
STEERING FLOW TO DOMINATE THE MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM THROUGHOUT
THE REMAINDER OF THE 72 HOUR PERIOD. OUTFLOW ALOFT REMAINS GOOD
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM, BUT MODERATE SHEAR SHOULD
INHIBIT ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. TC 15S (DAMIEN) IS THEREFORE
FORECAST TO REMAIN AT A RELATIVELY CONSTANT INTENSITY WITH SOME
SLOW WEAKENING OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD TOWARDS THE END OF THE
72 HOUR PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 20
FEET. REFER TO WWIO31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 280300Z3 (DTG 280157Z3), 280900Z9 (DTG 280757Z9),
281500Z6 (DTG 281357Z6) AND 282100Z3 (DTG 281957Z2). REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (PETE) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW)FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NONAME)WARNINGS (WTXS31
PGTW)FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
=========================================================================
WARNING 014 NOT AVAILABLE
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 990128 09:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z6 --- NEAR 16.3S0 90.0E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S0 90.0E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z9 --- 16.7S4 88.0E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z7 --- 16.8S5 86.0E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z0 --- 16.8S5 83.9E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z9 --- 16.8S5 81.9E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z0 --- 16.6S3 77.8E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
280900Z9 POSITION NEAR 16.4S1 89.5E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN) HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 280530Z8
VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY, A MICROWAVE IMAGER PASS
(280219Z2), AND A TROPICAL RAINFALL MEASUREMENT MISSION (TRMM)
MICROWAVE PASS (280349Z6). THE WARNING INTENSITY (50 KNOTS) IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS AND 35 KNOTS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) ABOUT 70NM NORTHEAST OF THE REMAINING CONVECTION. VISIBLE
IMAGERY, SYNOPTIC DATA, AND A PREVIOUS MICROWAVE SCATTEROMETER PASS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A FAIRLY LARGE AND SYMMETRICAL 35KT WIND RADII.
OVER THE PAST TWO HOURS, VISIBLE SATELLITE ANIMATION SHOWS A MORE
WESTWARD MOTION. AS SUCH, TC 15S (DAMIEN) IS FORECAST TO BEGIN A
MORE WESTWARD TRACK UNDER THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
DUE TO WINDSHEAR AS THE CONVECTION DECOUPLES FROM THE LLCC AND MOVES
TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST WITHIN THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. THOUGH OUTFLOW
REMAINS GOOD TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST, THE MODERATE VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR ACROSS THE SYSTEM WILL INHIBIT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND
BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z6 IS 20 FEET. REFER TO WWIO30
PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 281500Z6
(DTG 281357Z6), 282100Z3 (DTG 281957Z2), 290300Z4 (DTG 290157Z4) AND
290900Z0 (DTG 290757Z0).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 990128 15:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
281200Z3 --- NEAR 16.8S5 89.1E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
OUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 16.8S5 89.1E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z1 --- 17.6S4 87.1E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z4 --- 17.9S7 85.0E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z3 --- 17.9S7 83.0E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z6 --- 17.8S6 80.9E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z7 --- 17.5S3 76.9E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
281500Z6 POSITION NEAR 17.0S8 88.6E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN) HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 281130Z5
VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY (50
KNOTS) IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS
CIRCULATION CENTER ABOUT 50NM NORTHEAST OF THE CONVECTION.
SATELLITE ANIMATION SHOWS TC 15S HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK
SOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE PAST 18 HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. WHILE THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED, THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED
ABOUT 60NM FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE FIRST 12 HOURS. TC 15S (DAMIEN)
IS THEN FORECAST TO BEGIN A MORE WESTWARD TRACK AS THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE BUILDS IN TO THE SOUTH OF TC 15S. THOUGH OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD
ON THE WESTERN SIDE, MODERATE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR ACROSS THE SYSTEM
WILL INHIBIT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM
LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 281200Z3 IS 20 FEET. REFER TO WWIO31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA
HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 282100Z3 (DTG 281957Z2),
290300Z4 (DTG 290157Z4), 290900Z0 (DTG 290757Z0) AND 291500Z7 (DTG
291357Z7).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 990128 21:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
281800Z9 --- NEAR 17.0S8 87.8E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S8 87.8E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z7 --- 17.4S2 85.8E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z0 --- 17.6S4 83.6E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z9 --- 17.6S4 81.2E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z2 --- 17.5S3 78.9E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z3 --- 17.2S0 74.5E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
282100Z3 POSITION NEAR 17.1S9 87.3E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN) HAS TRACKED TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST
AT 14 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 281730Z1 ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0
AND T3.5 (45 AND 55 KNOTS). TC 15S (DAMIEN) HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE
WITHIN THE STEERING FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST.
THE LAST FEW AVAILABLE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES OVER THE REGION
INDICATED THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WAS STILL FULLY EXPOSED, AND
THAT THE SYSTEM MAY BE BEGINNING TO SEPARATE FROM THE CONVECTION.
THIS SEPARATION WOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO BE STEERED BY LOWER LEVELS
AND START TO TRACK TC 15S (DAMIEN) BACK TOWARDS THE WEST AFTER THE
12 TO 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM, BUT MODERATE SHEAR WILL PREVENT ANY
SIGNIFICANT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. TC 15S (DAMIEN)
IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO RETAIN A RELATIVELY CONSTANT INTENSITY WITH
GRADUAL WEAKENING TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN
ALTERNATE SCENARIO WOULD INVOLVE TC 15S (DAMIEN) CONTINUING ON MORE
OF A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK, IF THE SYSTEM REMAINS INTACT, AND SLOWLY
DISSIPATING AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING SHEAR AND COOLER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z
IS 20 FEET. REFER TO WWIO31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290300Z4 (DTG 290157Z4), 290900Z0 (DTG
290757Z0), 291500Z7 (DTG 291357Z7) AND 292100Z4 (DTG 291957Z3).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 990129 03:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
290000Z1 --- NEAR 17.5S3 86.8E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S3 86.8E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z4 --- 18.1S0 84.6E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z3 --- 18.2S1 82.2E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z6 --- 18.2S1 79.9E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z4 --- 18.1S0 77.6E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
:
010000Z1 --- 17.8S6 73.0E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
290300Z4 POSITION NEAR 17.7S5 86.2E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN) HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK TOWARDS THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 11 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 282330Z8 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF T3.0 AND T3.5 (45 AND 55 KNOTS). THE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT
CHANGED MUCH SINCE THE PREVIOUS WARNING. TC 15S (DAMIEN) REMAINS
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEMS LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS REMAINED MOSTLY
EXPOSED WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. MODERATE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS
THE REGION LOWERING THE STEERING LEVEL OF THE SYSTEM OVER TIME.
THIS LOWERING OF STEERING LEVEL IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE TC 15S (DAMIEN)
TO TRACK MORE WESTWARD AFTER ABOUT 12 HOURS AND THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO A BUILDING 700MB RIDGE
SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 15S (DAMIEN) IS FORECAST TO NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY INTENSIFY DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SHEARING ON THE
SYSTEM. TC 15S (DAMIEN) IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AFTER
THE 36 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
290000Z IS 20 FEET. REFER TO WWIO30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290900Z0 (DTG 290757Z0), 291500Z7
(DTG 291357Z7), 292100Z4 (DTG 291957Z3) AND 300300Z6 (DTG
300157Z6).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 990129 09:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN/BRIENDA) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
290600Z7 --- NEAR 17.5S3 85.6E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S3 85.6E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z0 --- 18.0S9 83.3E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z9 --- 18.4S3 81.1E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z2 --- 18.6S5 78.8E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z0 --- 18.7S6 76.4E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z7 --- 18.3S2 71.6E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
290900Z0 POSITION NEAR 17.6S4 85.0E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN/BRIENDA) HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 290530Z9 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A MICROWAVE
IMAGER PASS (290206Z9). THE WARNING INTENSITY (50 KNOTS) IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS AND
CONTINUITY WITH THE PRIOR FORECAST. OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS TC 15S
HAS BEGUN TO SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING AS WINDSHEAR REMAINS MODERATE
OVER THE AREA. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ABOUT 100NM NORTHEAST OF THE REMAINING
CONVECTION. VISIBLE IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
FAIRLY LARGE AND SYMMETRICAL 35KT WIND RADII. OVER THE PAST THREE
HOURS, VISIBLE SATELLITE ANIMATION SHOWS A MORE WESTWARD MOTION. AS
SUCH, TC 15S IS FORECAST TO BEGIN A MORE WESTWARD TRACK UNDER THE
PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE SOUTH. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DUE TO
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST,
BUT MODERATE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR ACROSS THE SYSTEM WILL INHIBIT
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS AND THEN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE FORECAST 35 KNOT
WIND RADII IS OMITTED AT THE 72 HOUR POSITION SINCE MAX WINDS ARE
ONLY FORECAST TO BE 35 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
290600Z7 IS 20 FEET. REFER TO WWIO30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 291500Z7 (DTG 291357Z7), 292100Z4 (DTG
291957Z3), 300300Z6 (DTG 300157Z6) AND 300900Z2 (DTG 300757Z2).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 990129 15:00z COR
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN/BIRENDA) WARNING NR 020A CORRECTED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
291200Z4 --- NEAR 17.8S6 83.9E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S6 83.9E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z3 --- 18.3S2 80.9E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z6 --- 18.6S5 78.1E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z4 --- 18.6S5 75.5E7
110 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z7 --- 18.6S5 72.9E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z4 --- 17.9S7 68.0E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
291500Z7 POSITION NEAR 17.9S7 83.1E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN/BIRENDA) HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 17
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
291130Z6 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A TROPICAL
WARNING INTENSITY (45 KNOTS) IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS AND 35 KNOTS. OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS TC 15S
HAS BEGUN TO SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING AS WINDSHEAR REMAINS MODERATE
OVER THE AREA. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ABOUT 50NM NORTHEAST OF THE
REMAINING CONVECTION. ANIMATED INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW
THE UPPER-LEVEL CIRRUS FROM THE CONVECTION BEING ADVECTED TO THE
SOUTHEAST IN FRONT OF AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. VISIBLE
IMAGERY AND SHIP REPORTS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A FAIRLY LARGE AND
SYMMETRICAL WINDFIELD. THE CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD DUE TO THE SHEAR WHILE THE LLCC CONTINUES TO MOVE WITH
THE LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW TOWARDS THE WEST. TC 15S IS THUS FORECAST TO
TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-MID
LEVEL FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THE FORWARD MOTION
OF THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN INCREASED TO REFLECT THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT. MODERATE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR ACROSS THE SYSTEM WILL INHIBIT
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE FORECAST 35 KNOT WIND RADII IS OMITTED AT THE
72 HOUR POSITION SINCE MAX WINDS ARE ONLY FORECAST TO BE 35 KNOTS.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO WHERE TC 15S COULD
GET CAUGHT UP IN THE FLOW OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND RECURVE TO
THE SOUTHWEST THEN SOUTH. TC 15S WOULD THEN ACCELERATE AND RAPIDLY
WEAKEN BY THE 72 HOUR POINT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
291200Z4 IS 20 FEET. REFER TO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS WARNING (WWIO31
PGFW) FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT
292100Z4 (DTG 291957Z3), 300300Z6 (DTG 300157Z6), 300900Z2 (DTG
300757Z2) AND 301500Z9 (DTG 301357Z9). JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION:
TO CHANGE SPELLING OF BIRENDA AND CORRECT A TYPOGRAPHIC ERROR.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 990129 21:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN-BIRENDA) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
291800Z0 --- NEAR 17.9S7 83.3E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9S7 83.3E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z9 --- 18.1S0 80.9E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z2 --- 18.4S3 78.6E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z0 --- 18.8S7 76.2E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z3 --- 19.3S3 73.8E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
292100Z4 POSITION NEAR 18.0S9 82.7E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN-BIRENDA) HAS MOVED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM THE NORTHEAST AND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER CONTINUES TO BE PARTIALLY EXPOSED. THE WARNING POSITION AND
INTENSITY ARE BASED ON INFRARED SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35
AND 45 KNOTS. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN-BIRENDA) IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD UNDER THE ENVIRONMENTAL STEERING INFLUENCE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WEAKENING DUE TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. WIND RADII
ARE BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z0 IS 19 FEET. REFER TO WWIO30 PGFW
FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300900Z2
(DTG 300757Z2) AND 302100Z6 (DTG 301957Z5).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 990130 09:00z COR
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN-BIRENDA) WARNING NR 022A CORRECTED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
300600Z9 --- NEAR 17.2S0 81.1E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: NEAR 17.2S0 81.1E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z2 --- 16.8S5 78.7E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z0 --- 16.7S4 76.3E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z3 --- 16.8S5 74.0E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
300900Z2 POSITION NEAR 17.1S9 80.5E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN-BIRENDA) HAS MOVED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
EXPERIENCE MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM THE NORTHEAST
AND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS FULLY EXPOSED. THE WARNING
POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS. TROPICAL
CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN-BIRENDA) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS IT MOVES OUT OF A WEAKNESS IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THEN, THE TRACK CONTINUES MORE WESTWARD UNDER
THE ENVIRONMENTAL STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS
SOUTH. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING DUE TO STRONG
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. WIND RADII ARE BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE
PREVIOUS WARNING AND CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWEST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z IS 18 FEET. REFER TO WWIO30
PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT
302100Z6 (DTG 301957Z5) AND 310900Z3 (DTG 310757Z3).
2. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECT NAME IN PARAGRAPH 1, LINE
1.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 990130 21:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN-BIRENDA) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
301800Z2 --- NEAR 16.6S3 79.4E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S3 79.4E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z0 --- 16.2S9 77.1E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z3 --- 16.2S9 74.0E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
302100Z6 POSITION NEAR 16.5S2 78.8E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN-BIRENDA) CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WEAKEN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS FULLY
EXPOSED AND THE ONLY REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION IS IN A CONVERGENT
BAND 180NM TO THE WEST. THE STRONGEST WINDS EXIST ON THE SOUTH SIDE
DUE TO TRANSLATIONAL MOVEMENT AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
SYSTEM AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S
(DAMIEN-BIRENDA IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW- AND MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE
SOUTH. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z2 IS 17 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
(NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
|
Document: damien.htm
Updated: 26th December 2006 |
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