Tropical
Cyclones
[Index] |
Tropical Cyclone RHONDA [Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere] |
WTXS21 PGTW 970510 03:30z SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 100321Z MAY 97// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.5S7 82.9E9 TO 15.2S8 94.2E5 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 101654Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.1S4 84.4E6. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED 1100 NM TO THE SOUTHWEST OF SUMATRA HAS INCREASED IN ORGANIZATION AND AREAL EXTENT OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS. THE PRESENCE OF A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BEEN VERIFIED BY BOTH SCATTEROMETRY AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR THE DISTURBANCE ARE ABOUT 28 C, WHILE SYNOPTIC DATA ALONG THE EQUATOR SHOWS THE PRESENCE OF STRONG EQUATORIAL WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. BOTH THESE ARE FAVORABLE INDICATORS FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. 3. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 110330Z8.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 970510 15:00z 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 36S WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 101200Z4 --- 12.4S7 85.9E2 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 12.4S7 85.9E2 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z2 --- 13.0S4 87.0E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z5 --- 13.6S0 87.8E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z3 --- 14.2S7 88.5E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 050 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z6 --- 14.8S3 89.2E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 060 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 101500Z7 POSITION 12.6S9 86.2E6 TROPICAL CYCLONE 36S IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN THE NEAR EQUATORIAL TROUGH AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE TROUGH AXIS DUE TO NORTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW. GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS FORECAST TO FACILITATE INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON A 101130Z SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110300Z5 (DTG 110151Z9) AND 111500Z8 (DTG 111351Z2). THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU 100321Z MAY 97 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 100330).// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 970511 03:00z 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 36S WARNING NR 002 RELOCATED 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 110000Z2 --- 11.5S7 90.2E1 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 105 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 11.5S7 90.2E1 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z5 --- 11.7S9 92.0E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 105 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z3 --- 12.4S7 93.5E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 040 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 115 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z6 --- 13.3S7 94.5E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 040 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 120 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z4 --- 14.5S0 95.3E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 040 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 135 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 110300Z5 POSITION 11.5S7 90.7E6 TROPICAL CYCLONE 36S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING EASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG MONSOONAL WESTERLIES. THE POSITION OF THE STORM HAS BEEN RELOCATED DUE TO 101708Z7 SCATTEROMETRY. TC 36S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY AND MOVE EASTWARD UNTIL IT GETS CLEAR OF THE CURRENT EQUATORIAL WESTERLY WIND BURST, THEN BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST. CURRENT WIND RADII IS BASED ON THE ABOVE MENTIONED SCATTEROMETRY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z8 IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z8 (DTG 111351Z2) AND 120300Z6 (DTG 120151Z0).// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 970511 09:00z 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 36S WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 110600Z8 --- 11.5S7 90.8E7 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 105 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 11.5S7 90.8E7 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z1 --- 11.6S8 92.0E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 105 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z9 --- 12.1S4 92.9E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 040 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 115 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z2 --- 12.6S9 93.8E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 040 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 120 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z0 --- 13.4S8 94.6E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 040 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 135 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z1 --- 15.2S8 95.1E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 040 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 105 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 110900Z1 POSITION 11.5S7 91.1E1 TROPICAL CYCLONE 36S (TC 36S) HAS SLOWED TO 09 KNOTS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN. TC 36S IS EMBEDDED IN EASTERLY STEERING FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN EQUATORIAL WESTERLY WIND BURST. AS TC 36S CONTINUES TO TRACK EASTWARD, IT IS EXPECTED TO LOSE THIS STEERING FLOW AND MAKE A TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST, THEN SOUTHWARD LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z8 IS 14 FEET. THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU) WILL BE ISSUING 72-HOUR WARNINGS EVERY SIX HOURS UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z8 (DTG 111351Z2), 112100Z5 (DTG 111951Z8), 120300Z6 (DTG 120151Z0) AND 120900Z2 (DTG 120751Z6).// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 970511 15:00z 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 36S WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 111200Z5 --- 11.8S0 90.8E7 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 105 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 11.8S0 90.8E7 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z3 --- 12.4S7 91.3E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 105 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z6 --- 13.1S5 91.8E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 040 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 115 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z4 --- 13.8S2 92.1E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 040 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 120 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z7 --- 14.5S0 92.4E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 040 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 135 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z8 --- 15.8S4 93.3E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 040 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 105 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 111500Z8 POSITION 11.9S1 90.9E8 TROPICAL CYCLONE 36S IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 4 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM HAS COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOWER LEVEL NORTH EASTERLY STEERING FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PASSING TO THE SOUTH. THIS FLOW IS MODIFYING THE EFFECT OF STRONG WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH OF TC36S, WHICH ARE STILL ATTEMPTING TO DRIVE THE CYCLONE TO THE EAST. THE OVERALL EFFECT HAS BEEN TO SLOW THE SYSTEM AND FORCE IT TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE AS TC 36S BECOMES FIRMLY EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE ABOVE MENTIONED RIDGE AND THE MID-LATITUDE LOW. ALTHOUGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS NOT STRONG AT PRESENT, IT IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INCREASE AS THE LOW LEVEL STEERING FLOW SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST WHILE UPPER LEVEL WINDS REMAIN WESTERLY. THIS WILL LIMIT THE INTENSIFICATION OF TC 36S. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z5 IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z5 (DTG 111951Z8), 120300Z6 (DTG 120151Z0) 120900Z2 (DTG 120751Z6) AND 121500Z9 (DTG 121351Z3).// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 970511 21:00z 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 36S WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 111800Z1 --- 12.1S4 91.6E6 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 105 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 12.1S4 91.6E6 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z9 --- 12.6S9 92.2E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 105 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z2 --- 13.1S5 92.7E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 040 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 115 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z0 --- 13.7S1 93.3E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 040 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 120 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z3 --- 14.3S8 93.8E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 040 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 135 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z4 --- 15.8S4 94.8E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 040 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 105 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 112100Z5 POSITION 12.2S5 91.7E7 TROPICAL CYCLONE 36S IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 5 KNOTS. SYSTEM MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE PASSING TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWED AS IT HAS MOVED AWAY FROM THE STRONG EQUATORIAL WESTERLIES PREVAILING IN ITS AREA OF FORMATION. MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST OVER TC 36S, WHICH WILL LIMIT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z1 IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120300Z6 (DTG 120151Z0), 120900Z2 (DTG 120751Z6), 121500Z9 (DTG 121351Z3) AND 122100Z6 (DTG 121951Z9).// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 970512 03:00z 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 36S (RHONDA) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 120000Z3 --- 11.9S1 91.7E7 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 105 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 11.9S1 91.7E7 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z6 --- 12.0S3 92.2E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 105 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z4 --- 12.5S8 92.7E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 040 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 115 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z7 --- 13.1S5 93.0E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 040 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 120 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z5 --- 13.7S1 93.1E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 040 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 130 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z6 --- 14.5S0 93.2E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 040 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 130 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 120300Z6 POSITION 11.9S1 91.8E8 TROPICAL CYCLONE 36S (RHONDA) IS SLOWLY TRACKING TOWARDS THE EAST-SOUTHEAST IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN. WE EXPECT TC 36S TO TURN SLOWLY TOWARDS THE SOUTH AND INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z3 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z2 (DTG 120751Z6), 121500Z9 (DTG 121351Z3), 122100Z6 (DTG 121951Z9) AND 130300Z7 (DTG 130151Z1).// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 970512 09:00z 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 36S (RHONDA) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 120600Z9 --- 12.3S6 92.1E2 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 040 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 105 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 12.3S6 92.1E2 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z2 --- 13.0S4 92.4E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 040 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 105 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z0 --- 13.7S1 92.7E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 040 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 115 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z3 --- 14.5S0 92.9E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 040 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 120 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z1 --- 15.3S9 93.1E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 130 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z2 --- 16.5S2 93.5E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 130 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 120900Z2 POSITION 12.5S8 92.2E3 TROPICAL CYCLONE 36S (RHONDA) IS TRACKING TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AT 05 KNOTS. WE EXPECT TC 36S TO TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTH AND WEAKEN LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z9 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 121500Z9 (DTG 121351Z3), 122100Z6 (DTG 121951Z9), 130300Z7 (DTG 130151Z1) AND 130900Z3 (DTG 130751Z7).// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 970512 15:00z 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 36S (RHONDA) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 121200Z6 --- 12.6S9 92.4E5 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 040 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 120 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 12.6S9 92.4E5 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z4 --- 13.3S7 92.6E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 045 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 130 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z7 --- 14.1S6 92.8E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 050 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 135 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z5 --- 14.9S4 93.0E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 045 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 130 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z8 --- 15.6S2 93.2E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 040 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 140 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z9 --- 17.1S9 93.8E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 140 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 121500Z9 POSITION 12.8S1 92.4E5 TROPICAL CYCLONE 36S (RHONDA) IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 4 KNOTS. WEAK STEERING FLOW HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS NOT YET GAINED SUFFICIENT LATITUDE TO INTERACT WITH THE STRONG WESTERLIES ALOFT, AND HAS THEREFORE CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR SOME FURTHER INTENSIFICATION FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING AS TC36S ENTERS THE STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REGIME TO ITS SOUTH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z6 IS 17 FEET. FUTURE WARNINGS ON TC36S WILL BE AT TWELVE HOUR INTERVALS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130300Z7 (DTG 130151Z1) AND 131500Z0 (DTG 131351Z4).// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 970513 03:00z 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 36S (RHONDA) WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 130000Z4 --- 13.2S6 93.3E5 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 040 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 120 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 13.2S6 93.3E5 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z7 --- 13.7S1 94.1E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 045 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 130 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z5 --- 14.4S9 94.8E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 050 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 135 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z8 --- 15.0S6 95.2E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 045 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 130 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z6 --- 15.8S4 95.6E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 040 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 130 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 130300Z7 POSITION 13.3S7 93.5E7 TROPICAL CYCLONE 36S (RHONDA) IS MOVING EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GAIN LATITUDE OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD AND INTENSIFY DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS DUE TO GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW TO THE SOUTH. AFTERWARDS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 131500Z0 (DTG 131351Z4) AND 140300Z8 (DTG 140151Z2).// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 970513 15:00z 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 36S (RHONDA) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 131200Z7 --- 13.9S3 93.9E1 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 040 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 120 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 13.9S3 93.9E1 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z5 --- 14.9S4 94.4E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 045 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 130 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z8 --- 15.7S3 94.8E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 050 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 135 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z6 --- 16.4S1 95.2E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 045 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 130 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z9 --- 17.1S9 95.6E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 040 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 130 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 131500Z0 POSITION 14.2S7 94.0E3 TROPICAL CYCLONE 36S (RHONDA) IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN. THE WARNING INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS IS BASED ON A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T4.5 (75 KNOTS). THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REACH PEAK INTENSITY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BEYOND THE 24-HOUR FORECAST POSITION TC 36S IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS THE SYSTEM ENTERS A REGION OF INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z7 IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140300Z8 (DTG 140151Z2) AND 141500Z1 (DTG 141351Z5).// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 970514 03:00z 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 36S (RHONDA) WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 140000Z5 --- 15.3S9 95.9E3 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 065 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 125 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S9 95.9E3 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z8 --- 17.2S0 97.8E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 075 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 140 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z6 --- 19.3S3 99.6E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 075 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 140 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z9 --- 21.7S0 101.4E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 070 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 140 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 16 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z7 --- 24.4S0 103.4E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 065 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 130 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 140300Z8 POSITION 15.8S4 96.4E9 TROPICAL CYCLONE 36S (RHONDA) IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED TO ITS SOUTH. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AND NOW DISPLAYS A RAGGED, CLOUD- FILLED 10 NM EYE. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REACH PEAK INTENSITY WITHIN 24 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO A STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND BEGIN TO TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM BY 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141500Z1 (DTG 141351Z5) AND 150300Z9 (DTG 150151Z3).// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 970514 15:00z 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 36S (RHONDA) WARNING NR 012 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 141200Z8 --- 17.4S2 98.4E1 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 17 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 065 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 125 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 17.4S2 98.4E1 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z6 --- 19.6S6 100.8E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 065 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 125 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z9 --- 21.8S1 103.2E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 065 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 125 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z7 --- 24.0S6 105.5E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 065 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 125 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 17 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z0 --- 26.6S4 107.9E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 060 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 125 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 141500Z1 POSITION 18.0S9 99.0E8 TROPICAL CYCLONE 36S (RHONDA) IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 17 KNOTS. THE CENTRAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM HAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS IS BASED ON A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T5.5 (100 KNOTS). TC 36S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK AND TO WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION NEAR THE 36- HOUR FORECAST POSITION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z8 IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150300Z9 (DTG 150151Z3) AND 151500Z2 (DTG 151351Z6).// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 970515 03:00z 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 36S (RHONDA) WARNING NR 013 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 150000Z6 --- 19.1S1 100.2E3 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 045 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 100 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 19.1S1 100.2E3 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z9 --- 21.1S4 102.2E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 090 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z7 --- 23.2S7 104.2E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 070 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z0 --- 25.3S0 106.0E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 14 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z8 --- 27.4S3 108.0E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 150300Z9 POSITION 19.6S6 100.7E8 TROPICAL CYCLONE 36S (RHONDA) IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HEAVY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IS NOW A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH THE NEAREST DEEP CONVECTION 25 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST. WE EXPECT TC 36S TO WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AND TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z6 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 151500Z2 (DTG 151353Z6) AND 160300Z0 (DTG 160153Z4).// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 970515 15:00z 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 36S (RHONDA) WARNING NR 014 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 151200Z9 --- 20.6S8 103.4E8 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 18 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 035 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 090 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 20.6S8 103.4E8 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z7 --- 22.5S9 106.7E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 070 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 19 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z0 --- 25.0S7 109.8E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 19 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z8 --- 27.6S5 112.9E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 19 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z1 --- 30.4S7 115.9E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 151500Z2 POSITION 21.1S4 104.2E7 TROPICAL CYCLONE 36S (RHONDA) IS MOVING EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 18 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM HAS ACCELERATED AND CONTINUES TO WEAKEN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. POSITION AND INTENSITY BASED ON A COMBINATION OF INFRARED SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND SCATTEROMETRY DATA. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z9 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z0 (DTG 160151Z4) AND 161500Z3 (DTG 161351Z7).// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 970516 03:00z 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 36S (RHONDA) WARNING NR 015 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 160000Z7 --- 23.1S6 107.6E4 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 22 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 090 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 23.1S6 107.6E4 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z0 --- 25.7S4 111.4E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 080 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 19 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z8 --- 28.1S1 114.8E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 160300Z0 POSITION 23.8S3 108.6E5 TROPICAL CYCLONE 36S (RHONDA) IS MOVING RAPIDLY TOWARDS SOUTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA. CURRENT WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON BOTH CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS A 151602Z5 SCATTEROMETRY PASS. WE EXPECT TC 36S TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z7 IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161500Z3 (DTG 161351Z7).// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 970516 15:00z 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 36S (RHONDA) WARNING NR 016 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 161200Z0 --- 25.1S8 110.0E2 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 25.1S8 110.0E2 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z8 --- 27.1S0 112.6E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 161500Z3 POSITION 25.6S3 110.6E8 MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z0 IS 14 FEET. TROPICAL CYCLONE 36S (RHONDA) IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED RAPIDLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
Document: rhonda.htm
Updated: 26th December 2006 |
[Australian Severe Weather index] [Copyright Notice] [Email Contacts] [Search This Site] |