Tropical
Cyclones
[Index] |
Tropical Cyclone MELANIE-BELLAMINE [Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere] |
WTXS21 PGTW 961028 21:00z SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 282051Z OCT 96// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN A 160 NM RADIUS OF 8.0S8 98.3E0 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 281930Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 8.2S0 98.5E2. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. AN AREA OF CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS APPEARED OVER THE CENTER OF THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS FAVORING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED WITHIN A NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH. STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ALONG THE EQUATOR ARE HELPING TO SUSTAIN AND TO INTENSIFY THE SYSTEM. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 292100Z4.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 961029 03:00z 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 290000Z1 --- 9.4S3 97.0E6 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT REPEAT POSIT: 9.4S3 97.0E6 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z4 --- 10.0S1 95.0E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z3 --- 11.0S2 93.2E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z6 --- 11.6S8 90.8E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 310000Z4 --- 11.8S0 88.4E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE 040 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 290300Z4 POSITION 9.6S5 96.5E0 TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S HAS FORMED IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN. TC 05S IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND TRACK WEST-SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. NEXT WARNINGS AT 291500Z7 (DTG 291353Z3) AND 300300Z6 (DTG 300153Z2). THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU 282051Z OCT 96 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 282100). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z1 IS 09 FEET. REFER TO WWIO30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 961029 15:00z 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S WARNING NR 02 RELOCATED 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 291200Z4 --- 9.2S1 96.5E0 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 9.2S1 96.5E0 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z3 --- 10.0S1 96.8E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z6 --- 10.5S6 96.1E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE 035 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 310000Z4 --- 10.8S9 95.0E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE 040 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 311200Z7 --- 11.1S3 93.7E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE 045 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 291500Z7 POSITION 9.4S3 96.6E1 LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 29/1204Z AND ANIMATED VISUAL IMAGERY DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS INDICATES THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (TC05S) HAS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION AND IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS. THIS POSITION WAS FURTHER NORTH THAN WAS INDICATED ON THE PREVIOUS WARNING, HENCE THE RELOCATION. THE DEEPEST CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WAS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 40 TO 50NM TO THE SOUTHWEST THE CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 05S IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD IN LIGHT STEERING FLOW FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS BEFORE TURNING MORE TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 10 FEET. REFER TO WWIO30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION NEXT WARNINGS AT 300300Z6 (DTG 300153Z2) AND 301500Z9 (DTG 301353Z5).// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 961030 03:00z 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S WARNING NR 03 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 300000Z3 --- 10.4S5 96.7E2 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 10.4S5 96.7E2 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z6 --- 11.1S3 96.5E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE 040 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 310000Z4 --- 11.4S6 96.1E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE 045 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 311200Z7 --- 11.6S8 95.2E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE 050 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z1 --- 11.6S8 94.1E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE 015 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE 055 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 300300Z6 POSITION 10.6S7 96.7E2 TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS. OVERALL SYSTEM ORGANIZATION HAS REMAINED STEADY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY, AND CURVATURE OF THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES APPEARS TO BE TIGHTENING, WHICH MAY INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS BEGINNING TO GET STRONGER. OUR WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON A 2923330Z2 SATELLITE IMAGERY ANALYSIS INDICATING 35 KNOT WINDS (DVORAK T2.5). WE ANTICIPATE MOTION OF THIS SYSTEM TO REMAIN RELATIVELY SLOW DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW INDUCED BY A BROAD WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. BETWEEN 36 AND 48 HOURS STEERING FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STRONGER DUE TO THE SLOWLY SHIFTING RIDGE AXIS, WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN WESTWARD MOTION APPROACHING A MORE AVERAGE TRANSLATIONAL SPEED. NEXT WARNINGS AT 301500Z9 (DTG 301353Z5) AND 310300Z7 (DTG 310153Z3). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z3 IS 10 FEET. REFER TO WWIO31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 961030 15:00z CORRECTED 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S WARNING NR 04A CORRECTED 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 301200Z6 --- 10.5S6 96.0E5 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 10.5S6 96.0E5 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 310000Z4 --- 10.9S0 95.8E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 311200Z7 --- 11.2S4 95.0E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE 040 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z1 --- 11.4S6 94.1E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE 045 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z4 --- 11.5S7 92.6E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE 045 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 301500Z9 POSITION 10.6S7 96.0E5 LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 301130Z SHOWS THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S IS MOVING VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD AT 2 KNOTS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A COMBINATION OF ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A SCATTEROMETER PASS FROM 30/0334Z. TC 05S HAS NOT INTENSIFIED GREATLY DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS, AS ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY UPPER LEVEL SHEAR ACROSS THE CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CURRENT WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON A 301152Z SATELLITE IMAGERY ANALYSIS INDICATING 35 KNOT WINDS (DVORAK T2.5) AS WELL AS DATA FROM COCOS ISLAND (WMO 96996) JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. THE WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW, HOWEVER OUR COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE SOME SIGNS OF STRENGTHENING TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY SLOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 11 FEET. REFER TO WWIO30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 310300Z7 (DTG 310153Z3) AND 311500Z0 (DTG 311353Z6). JUSTIFICATION: CORRECTS CURRENT SEA HEIGHT.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 961031 03:00z 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 310000Z4 --- 10.4S5 95.4E8 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 10.4S5 95.4E8 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 311200Z7 --- 10.4S5 94.8E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z1 --- 10.4S5 94.0E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE 040 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z4 --- 10.4S5 93.1E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE 045 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z2 --- 10.4S5 92.1E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE 045 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 310300Z7 POSITION 10.4S5 95.3E7 TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN. SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 302330Z1 INDICATES TC 05S HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS, AND OUR WARNING INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON ANALYSIS OF THIS IMAGERY (DVORAK T2.5). MOTION THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE WARNING PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW DUE TO WEAK STEERING FROM THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. NEXT WARNINGS AT 311500Z0 (DTG 311353Z6) AND 010300Z4 (DTG 010153Z0). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310000Z4 IS 18 FEET. REFER TO WWIO31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 961031 15:00z 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 311200Z7 --- 10.1S2 95.1E5 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE 045 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 10.1S2 95.1E5 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z1 --- 9.9S8 94.5E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE 045 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z4 --- 9.8S7 93.9E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE 040 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z2 --- 9.8S7 92.2E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE 040 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z5 --- 9.8S7 90.2E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT --- REMARKS: 311500Z0 POSITION 10.0S1 95.0E4 TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS. TC 05S HAS COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASED NORTHEASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WIND SHEAR SLOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM. TC 05S IS FORECAST TO FOLLOW A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010300Z4 (DTG 010153Z0) AND 011500Z7 (DTG 011353Z3). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311200Z7 IS 18 FEET. REFER TO WWIO31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 961101 03:00z 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (MELANIE) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 010000Z1 --- 9.8S7 94.0E3 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE 045 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 9.8S7 94.0E3 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z4 --- 9.9S8 93.1E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE 045 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z2 --- 10.1S2 92.2E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE 040 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z5 --- 10.2S3 91.2E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z3 --- 10.1S2 90.4E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE 040 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 010300Z4 POSITION 9.8S7 93.8E0 TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM HAS FLUCTUATED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. OUR WARNING INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGERY ANALYSES INDICATING 45 KNOT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS (DVORAK T3.0). WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THIS SYSTEM IS EXPERIENCING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. A DRY SLOT OF SUBSIDING AIR NORTHEAST OF THE TC 05S IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR, INFRARED AND VISIBLE IMAGES WITH A SHARPLY DEFINED EDGE WHERE THE CLOUD SHIELD OF TC 05S IS BEING AFFECTED. CIRRUS PLUMES FROM CONVECTION ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS FURTHER NORTHEAST ARE BLOWING INTO THIS AREA AND EVAPORATING. BECAUSE OF THIS SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WE ANTICIPATE THAT TC 05S WILL CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IT IS EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN A REGION OF MINIMAL STEERING FLOW AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT WESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE INDICATING A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AXIS TO DEVELOP WELL BEYOND THE PERIOD OF OUR FORECAST WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TC 05S TO MOVE SOUTH OR SOUTHEASTWARD SEVERAL DAYS FROM NOW AND POTENTIALLY TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW. NEXT WARNINGS AT 011500Z7 (DTG 011353Z3) AND 020300Z5 (DTG 020153Z1). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z1 IS 18 FEET. REFER TO WWIO31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 961101 15:00z 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (MELANIE) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 011200Z4 --- 9.2S1 90.4E3 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 16 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE 045 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 9.2S1 90.4E3 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z2 --- 9.1S0 87.9E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE 050 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z5 --- 9.1S0 85.3E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE 055 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z3 --- 9.1S0 82.7E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE 060 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z6 --- 8.5S3 80.3E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE 060 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 011500Z7 POSITION 9.2S1 89.8E5 TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (MELANIE) IS TRACKING WESTWARD IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN. THE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR ON TC 05S HAS RELAXED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO REGAIN ORGANIZATION AND TO INTENSIFY. OUR WIND RADII ARE BASED ON 01/1123Z MICROWAVE IMAGERY (SSM/I) AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. TC 05S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD AND TO INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020300Z5 (DTG 020153Z1) AND 021500Z8 (DTG 021353Z4). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z4 IS 18 FEET. REFER TO WWIO31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 961102 03:00z 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (MELANIE) WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 020000Z2 --- 8.6S4 88.2E8 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE 010 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE 045 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 8.6S4 88.2E8 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z5 --- 8.3S1 86.1E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE 010 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE 055 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z3 --- 8.2S0 84.4E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE 010 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE 055 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z6 --- 8.2S0 82.7E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE 010 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE 060 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z4 --- 8.4S2 81.3E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE 010 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE 060 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 020300Z5 POSITION 8.5S3 87.7E2 TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (MELANIE) CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD AND INTENSIFY. NEXT WARNINGS AT 021500Z8 (DTG 021351Z2) AND 030300Z6 (DTG 030151Z0). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 21 FEET. REFER TO WWIO30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 961102 15:00z 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (MELANIE) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 021200Z5 --- 8.6S4 87.8E3 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE 010 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE 045 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 8.6S4 87.8E3 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z3 --- 8.7S5 87.0E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE 010 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE 055 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z6 --- 8.8S6 85.6E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE 010 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE 055 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z4 --- 9.2S1 83.9E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE 010 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE 055 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z7 --- 9.8S7 82.2E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE 010 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE 060 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 021500Z8 POSITION 8.6S4 87.6E1 TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (MELANIE) IS TRACKING WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS. TC 05S IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AND TAKE A MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK BY THE 48-HOUR FORECAST POSITION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030300Z6 (DTG 030153Z2) AND 031500Z9 (DTG 031353Z5). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z5 IS 21 FEET. REFER TO WWIO31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 961103 03:00z 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (MELANIE) WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 030000Z3 --- 9.6S5 87.1E6 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE 010 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE 045 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 9.6S5 87.1E6 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z6 --- 10.3S4 86.5E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE 010 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE 045 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z4 --- 11.0S2 86.0E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE 010 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE 050 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z7 --- 11.6S8 85.6E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE 010 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE 050 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z5 --- 12.3S6 85.4E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE 010 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE 050 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 030300Z6 POSITION 9.8S7 87.0E5 TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS. TC 05S IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN CURRENT INTENSITY AND CONTINUE TURNING GRADUALLY SOUTHEASTWARD. NEXT WARNINGS AT 031500Z9 (DTG 031353Z5) AND 040300Z7 (DTG 040153Z3). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 21 FEET.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 961103 15:00z 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (MELANIE) WARNING NR 012 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 031200Z6 --- 10.3S4 86.5E9 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE 010 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE 050 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 10.3S4 86.5E9 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z4 --- 10.9S0 85.9E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE 010 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE 050 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z7 --- 11.5S7 85.5E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE 010 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE 050 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z5 --- 12.3S6 85.3E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE 010 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE 050 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z8 --- 13.0S4 85.1E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE 010 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE 050 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 031500Z9 POSITION 10.4S5 86.4E8 TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (MELANIE) IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS. TC 05S IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY AND BEGIN TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD BY THE 24-HOUR FORECAST POSITION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040300Z7 (DTG 040153Z3) AND 041500Z0 (DTG 041353Z6). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z6 IS 21 FEET.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 961104 03:00z 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (MELANIE) WARNING NR 013 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 040000Z4 --- 10.4S5 85.3E6 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 020 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 075 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 10.4S5 85.3E6 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z7 --- 10.7S8 84.2E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 020 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 075 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z5 --- 11.1S3 83.5E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 020 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 070 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z8 --- 11.6S8 82.8E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 020 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 070 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z6 --- 12.4S7 82.1E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 020 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 070 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 040300Z7 POSITION 10.5S6 85.0E3 SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS INDICATES THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (MELANIE) HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INTENSIFIED AND NOW HAS A 13 NM DIAMETER EYE. CURRENT INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM IS ESTIMATED TO BE 100 KNOTS. TC 05S IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS AND IS EXPECTED TO TURN GRADUALLY SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE ADJUSTED USING SATELLITE SCATTEROME TRY DATA FROM 031734Z. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 041500Z0 (DTG 041353Z6) AND 050300Z8 (DTG 050153Z4).// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 961104 15:00z 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (MELANIE-BELLAMINE) WARNING NR 014 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 041200Z7 --- 10.5S6 85.0E3 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 020 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 075 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 10.5S6 85.0E3 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z5 --- 10.8S9 84.2E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 020 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 075 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z8 --- 11.3S5 83.3E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 020 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 070 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z6 --- 12.1S4 82.5E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 020 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 070 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z9 --- 12.9S2 81.7E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 020 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 070 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 041500Z0 POSITION 10.6S7 84.8E0 TC 05S (MELANIE-BELLAMINE) IS DRIFTING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS. TC 05S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050300Z8 (DTG 050153Z4) AND 051500Z1 (DTG 051353Z7). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z7 IS 21 FEET.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 961105 03:00z 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (MELANIE) WARNING NR 015 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 050000Z5 --- 10.7S8 84.5E7 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 025 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 080 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 10.7S8 84.5E7 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z8 --- 10.9S0 83.9E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 025 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 075 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z6 --- 11.4S6 83.0E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 025 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 075 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z9 --- 12.1S4 81.6E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 020 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 060 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z7 --- 13.4S8 79.9E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 020 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 055 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 050300Z8 POSITION 10.7S8 84.4E6 SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 042330Z INDICATES THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (MELANIE-BELLAMINE) IS CONTINUING TO DRIFT TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 03 KNOTS. THIS IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES THAT TC05S IS AT OR NEAR ITS PEAK INTENSITY. FORECAST IS FOR AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED WHILE TURNING MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AS IT WEAKENS SLOWLY. NEXT WARNINGS AT 051500Z1 (DTG 051353Z7) AND 060300Z9 (DTG 060153Z5). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 26 FEET.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 961105 15:00z 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (MELANIE-BELLAMINE) WARNING NR 016 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 051200Z8 --- 10.8S9 83.3E4 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 025 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 080 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 10.8S9 83.3E4 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z6 --- 11.2S4 82.1E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 025 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 075 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z9 --- 11.7S9 81.0E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 025 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 075 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z7 --- 12.5S8 79.9E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 020 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 060 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z0 --- 13.5S9 78.8E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 015 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 055 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 051500Z1 POSITION 10.9S0 83.0E1 SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 051030Z INDICATES TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (MELANIE-BELLAMINE) CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE WEST- SOUTHWEST. THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO HAVE PEAKED IN INTENSITY AND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC05S IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE SLIGHTLY IN ITS FORWARD MOTION AND TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060300Z9 (DTG 060153Z5) AND 061500Z2 (DTG 061353Z8). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 26 FEET.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 961106 03:00z 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (MELANIE-BELLAMINE) WARNING NR 017 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 060000Z6 --- 11.5S7 82.2E2 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 025 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 080 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 11.5S7 82.2E2 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z9 --- 12.1S4 80.8E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 025 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 075 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z7 --- 12.8S1 79.5E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 025 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 075 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z0 --- 13.3S7 77.8E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 020 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 060 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z8 --- 14.9S4 75.8E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 015 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 055 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 060300Z9 POSITION 11.7S9 81.9E8 SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 052329Z AND 052230Z INDICATE THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (MELANIE-BELLAMINE) HAS INCREASED ITS FORWARD SPEED TO 07 KNOTS. INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE A CURRENT INTENSITY OF BETWEEN 100 AND 115 KNOTS (DVORAK T5.5 TO T6.0). TRACK FORECAST REMAINS THE SAME FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST; EXPECT CONTINUED SLOW ACCELERATION WITH A TURN MORE TOWARDS THE SOUTH- SOUTHWEST IN THE OUTLOOK PERIOD AS TC05S BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH AN APPROACHING TROUGH IN THE MID-INDIAN OCEAN. NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z2 (DTG 061353Z8) AND 070300Z0 (DTG 070153Z6). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 26 FEET.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 961106 15:00z 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (MELANIE-BELLAMINE) WARNING NR 018 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 061200Z9 --- 11.8S0 80.5E3 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 025 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 080 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 11.8S0 80.5E3 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z7 --- 12.3S6 79.0E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 025 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 075 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z0 --- 12.9S2 77.5E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 025 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 075 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z8 --- 14.0S5 76.1E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 020 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 060 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z1 --- 15.9S5 74.8E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 015 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 055 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 061500Z2 POSITION 11.9S1 80.1E9 TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS. WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON A 061130Z1 SATELLITE IMAGERY ANALYSIS INDICATING WINDS BETWEEN 100 AND 115 KNOTS (DVORAK T5.5/6.0) TAPERED DOWNWARD FOR A SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. OUR FORECAST IS FOR TC 05S TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE NEAR TERM AND BEGIN A GRADUAL ARC TO THE SOUTH DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IS ENHANCED BY AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070300Z0 (DTG 070153Z6) AND 071500Z3 (DTG 071353Z9). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z9 IS 23 FEET.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 961107 03:00z 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (MELANIE-BELLAMINE) WARNING NR 019 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 070000Z7 --- 12.4S7 78.7E2 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 025 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 080 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 12.4S7 78.7E2 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z0 --- 13.2S6 76.8E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 025 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 075 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z8 --- 14.6S1 75.3E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 025 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 075 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z1 --- 16.2S9 73.8E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 020 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 060 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z9 --- 17.9S7 72.4E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 015 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 055 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 070300Z0 POSITION 12.6S9 78.2E7 TC 05S (MELANIE-BELLAMINE) IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS. TC 05S IS EQUATORWARD OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. FORECAST TC 05S TO BECOME INFLUENCED BY THIS FEATURE AND TRACK MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF THE WARNING. NEXT WARNINGS AT 071500Z3 (DTG 071351Z7) AND 080300Z1 (DTG 080151Z5). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 23 FEET. REFER TO WWPIO31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 961107 15:00z CORRECTED 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (MELANIE) WARNING NR 020A CORRECTED 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 071200Z0 --- 13.2S6 77.3E7 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 025 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 080 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 13.2S6 77.3E7 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z8 --- 14.2S7 76.1E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 025 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 075 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z1 --- 15.5S1 75.2E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 025 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 075 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z9 --- 16.8S5 74.6E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 025 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 065 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z2 --- 18.2S1 74.1E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 020 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 055 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 071500Z3 POSITION 13.5S9 77.0E4 TC 05S (MELANIE-BELLAMINE) IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS. TC 05S IS FORECAST TO BEGIN A SOUTHWARD TURN AS A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TC 05S IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z1 (DTG 080153Z7) AND 081500Z4 (DTG 081353Z0). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z0 IS 23 FEET. JUSTIFICATION FOR COR: CORRECTED THE WARNING NUMBER.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 961108 03:00z 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (MELANIE-BELLAMINE) WARNING NR 021 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 080000Z8 --- 14.7S2 76.4E7 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 025 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 075 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 14.7S2 76.4E7 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z1 --- 16.0S7 76.1E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 025 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 075 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z9 --- 17.2S0 75.8E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 025 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 075 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z2 --- 18.5S4 75.6E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 025 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 070 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z1 --- 19.7S7 75.4E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 020 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 060 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 080300Z1 POSITION 15.0S6 76.3E6 TC 05S (MELANIE-BELLAMINE) IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS AND IS EXPECTED TO TAKE A GRADUAL TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTH DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. CURRENT SATELLITE DERIVED INTENSITY ESTIMATES SHOW TC 05S TO HAVE A CURRENT INTENSITY OF 125 KNOTS (DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY OF 6.5). ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAKENING TREND FOR TC 05S WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NEXT WARNINGS AT 081500Z4 (DTG 081353Z0) AND 090300Z2 (DTG 090153Z8). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 24 FEET.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 961108 15:00z 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (MELANIE-BELLAMINE) WARNING NR 022 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 081200Z1 --- 16.0S7 76.9E2 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 025 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 075 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S7 76.9E2 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z9 --- 17.2S0 77.6E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 025 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 065 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z2 --- 18.5S4 78.3E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 025 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 060 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z1 --- 19.6S6 79.5E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 025 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 055 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z4 --- 20.3S5 81.4E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 020 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 050 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 081500Z4 POSITION 16.3S0 77.1E5 TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (MELANIE-BELLAMINE) IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT RECURVES TO THE EAST. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z2 (DTG 090153Z8) AND 091500Z5 (DTG 091353Z1). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 24 FEET.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 961109 03:00z 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (MELANIE) WARNING NR 023 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 090000Z9 --- 17.7S5 78.3E8 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 025 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 075 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 17.7S5 78.3E8 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z2 --- 19.0S0 80.2E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 025 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 065 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z1 --- 20.2S4 82.5E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 025 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 060 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z4 --- 21.4S7 84.0E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 025 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 055 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z2 --- 23.6S1 83.9E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 020 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 050 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 090300Z2 POSITION 18.0S9 78.8E3 TC 05S (MELANIE-BELLAMINE) IS TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 13 KNOTS. MELANIE=S POSITION IS BASED ON A 08/2330Z ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGE, AND A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER EVIDENT ON A 08/1922Z SSM/I IMAGE FROM DMSP F-10. INTENSITY IS BASED ON A SATELLITE DERIVED DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 5.5 (100 KNOTS). INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS SYSTEM ORGANIZATION HAS WEAKENED, CONVECTIVE INTENSITY HAS DECREASED, AND HAS BECOME ELONGATED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. MELANIE IS APPROACHING A MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT, AND THE LEFTWARD TURN BETWEEN 36 AND 48 HOURS IS A REPRESENTATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION SHEARING AWAY FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION. EVEN SO, THE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL TAKE A FEW DAYS TO DIMINISH BELOW WARNING CRITERIA. NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z5 (DTG 091351Z9) AND 100300Z4 (DTG 100151Z8). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 26 FEET. REFER TO WWIO31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 961109 15:00z 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (MELANIE-BELLAMINE) WARNING NR 024 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 091200Z2 --- 19.2S2 79.7E3 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 035 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 060 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 19.2S2 79.7E3 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z1 --- 20.5S7 80.6E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 030 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 055 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z4 --- 21.8S1 80.9E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 025 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 050 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z2 --- 23.2S7 80.5E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 030 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 045 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z5 --- 24.3S9 80.3E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 020 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 045 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 091500Z5 POSITION 19.5S5 79.9E5 TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS. IT HAS BEGUN TO SHEAR APART AND WEAKEN. CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY ANALYSIS INDICATING 77 KNOT WINDS (DVORAK CI 4.5). WIND RADII ARE BASED UPON EXTRAPOLATION OF SCATTEROMETRY. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100300Z4 (DTG 100153Z0) AND 101500Z7 (DTG 101353Z3). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z2 IS 21 FEET.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 961110 03:00z 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (MELANIE-BELLAMINE) WARNING NR 025 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 100000Z1 --- 22.1S5 79.5E1 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 17 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 060 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 22.1S5 79.5E1 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z4 --- 25.3S0 78.2E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 055 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z2 --- 28.5S5 78.2E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z5 --- 30.6S9 81.2E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 15 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z3 --- 32.3S8 84.0E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 100300Z4 POSITION 22.9S3 79.2E8 TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (MELANIE-BELLAMINE) IS TRACKING SOUTHWARD IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN. THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TC 05S HAS BECOME SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. TC 05S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AND TO WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z7 (DTG 101353Z3) AND 110300Z5 (DTG 110153Z1). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z1 IS 18 FEET.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 961110 15:00z CORRECTED 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (MELANIE-BELLAMINE) WARNING NR 026A CORRECTED 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 101200Z4 --- 22.0S4 78.1E6 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM REPEAT POSIT: 22.0S4 78.1E6 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z2 --- 22.5S9 76.4E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z5 --- 24.3S9 75.0E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z3 --- 27.1S0 75.6E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 14 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z6 --- 29.3S4 77.5E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 101500Z7 POSITION 22.1S5 77.7E1 TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (MELANIE-BELLAMINE) IS MOVING WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN AT 08 KNOTS. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS SEPARATED FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION. SATELLITE IMAGERY ANALYSIS INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF 25 KNOT WINDS (DVORAK CI 1.5) BUT DUE TO THE RAPID WEAKENING TREND OF THIS SYSTEM WE HAVE KEPT THE WARNING INTENSITY HIGHER SINCE IT IS UNLIKELY THE WELL DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS SPUN DOWN AS QUICKLY AS THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE INDICATES. NEXT WARNING AT 110300Z5 (DTG 110153Z1). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z4 IS 15 FEET. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION:CORRECT WARNING NUMBER.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 961111 03:00z 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (MELANIE-BELLAMINE) WARNING NR 027 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 110000Z2 --- 22.5S9 77.3E7 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 22.5S9 77.3E7 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z5 --- 23.2S7 76.4E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 110300Z5 POSITION 22.7S1 77.1E5 TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (MELANIE-BELLAMINE) IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN. TC 05S IS FORECAST TO BE DISSIPATED BY THE 12-HOUR FORECAST POSITION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 11/0000Z2 IS 15 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
Document: melanie.htm
Updated: 26th December 2006 |
[Australian Severe Weather index] [Copyright Notice] [Email Contacts] [Search This Site] |