Tropical
Cyclones
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Tropical Cyclone LINDSAY [Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere] |
WTXS21 PGTW 960710 15:00z SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 101451Z JUL 96// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 125 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.1S4 91.3E3 TO 17.3S1 90.5E4 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 101335Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.2S6 91.1E1. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF SUMATRA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS. SYNOPTIC DATA AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF A LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION BENEATH AN UPPER- LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPERIENCING UPPER-LEVEL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM THE NORTHEAST WHICH IS HINDERING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM. THE PRESENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) OF 2.0 (30 KNOTS). 3. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 111500Z8.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 960710 21:00z 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (LINDSAY) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 101800Z0 --- 14.3S8 91.2E2 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S8 91.2E2 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z8 --- 16.2S9 91.6E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z1 --- 18.0S9 92.3E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z9 --- 19.9S9 93.7E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z2 --- 21.7S0 95.7E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 102100Z4 POSITION 14.8S3 91.3E3 TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (LINDSAY) HAS FORMED IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN. TC01S IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A POORLY ORGANIZED TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE DISSIPATED BY THE 48-HOUR FORECAST POSITION DUE TO INCREASED UPPER-LEVEL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR POLEWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z1 (DTG 110751Z5) AND 112100Z5 (DTG 111951Z8).// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 960711 09:00z 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (LINDSAY) WARNING NR 002 FINAL 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 110600Z8 --- 12.8S1 92.8E9 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL REPEAT POSIT: 12.8S1 92.8E9 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z1 --- 13.6S0 93.4E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z9 --- 14.4S9 94.2E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 110900Z1 POSITION 13.0S4 92.9E0 TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (LINDSAY) IS WEAKENING RAPIDLY OVER COOLER WATER AND IS BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER.
Document: lindsay.htm
Updated: 26th December 2006 |
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