Tropical
Cyclones
[Index] |
Tropical Cyclone JUSTIN [Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere] |
WTPS21 PGTW 970305 15:00z SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 051453Z MAR 97// RMKS/ 1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA. 2. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY AND AMEMBASSY HONIARA SOLOMON ISLANDS. 3. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS OF 17.0S8 157.0E3 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 60 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA AT 051230Z INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 16.5S2 157.4E7. THE SYSTEM IS QUASI-STATIONARY. 4. REMARKS: A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE CORAL SEA HAS PERSISTED FOR APPROXIMATELY 72 HOURS. A VERY STRONG WESTERLY WIND SURGE INTO THE MONSOON TROUGH IS SUPPORTING THIS SYSTEM. THE PRESENCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (GAVIN) TO THE EAST OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS ALSO ENHANCING WIND FLOW INTO THE MONSOON TROUGH. SYNOPTIC DATA NORTH OF THE TROUGH AXIS INDICATE WINDS PREDOMINANTLY 15 TO 25 KNOTS NEAR THE AXIS, WITH WINDS REACHING 35 KNOTS AND GREATER ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH AXIS. SYNOPTIC SHIP OBSERVATIONS OF WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 KNOTS ASSOCIATED WITH SQUALLS NORTH OF THE TROUGH AXIS INDICATE THIS IS A VERY SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER FEATURE EVEN IF IT IS NOT YET A TROPICAL CYCLONE. RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGER (SSM/I), SCATTEROMETRY, AND YESTERDAY=S VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE A FEW EDDIES MAY EXIST IN THE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AXIS, BUT NONE HAVE YET ORGANIZED THE SYNOPTIC FLOW INTO THEM. OVERALL THIS SYSTEM HAS ONLY BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS, BUT RECENT IMAGES INDICATE THE SYNOPTIC FLOW PATTERN IS CONSOLIDATING NEAR THE CENTROID OF THE NUMEROUS EDDIES IN THE FLOW. DUE TO THE STRONG MONSOON FLOW PRESENT NORTH OF THIS DISTURBANCE, IF IT DOES BEGIN TO ORGANIZE INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IT WILL HAPPEN RATHER QUICKLY. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD. 5. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 061500Z2.// ========================================================================= WTPS32 PGTW 970306 03:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU 051453Z MAR 97 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS22 PGTW 051500 ) 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P WARNING NR 001 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 060000Z6 --- 17.2S0 156.6E8 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 17.2S0 156.6E8 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z9 --- 17.4S2 156.4E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z7 --- 17.5S3 156.0E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z0 --- 17.7S5 155.6E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 240 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z8 --- 17.9S7 154.9E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 240 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z9 --- 18.0S9 153.0E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 240 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 060300Z9 POSITION 17.2S0 156.5E7 TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P HAS FORMED IN THE WESTERN SOUTH PACIFIC OCEAN. TC32P IS LOCATED WITHIN AN ACTIVE MONSOON TROUGH AND IS BEST CHARACTERIZED AS A MONSOON DEPRESSION WHICH REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED. MAXIMUM WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM CENTER ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS (DVORAK T2.0), HOWEVER WINDS WITHIN THE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE AREAS UP TO 300 NM TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF SYSTEM CENTER ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 35-45 KNOTS. CONSOLIDATION OF CONVECTION ABOUT THE SYSTEM CENTER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 12 FEET. REFER TO WWPW30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z5(DTG 060753Z1), 061500Z2 (DTG 061353Z8), 062100Z9(DTG 071953Z5) AND 070300Z0 (DTG 070153Z6). THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU 051453Z MAR 97 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS22 PGTW 051500 ) REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (GAVIN) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTPS32 PGTW 970306 09:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P WARNING NR 002 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 060600Z2 --- 17.3S1 156.0E2 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 17.3S1 156.0E2 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z5 --- 17.4S2 155.7E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z3 --- 17.5S3 155.2E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z6 --- 17.7S5 154.6E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 310 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z4 --- 17.7S5 153.9E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 310 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 130 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z5 --- 17.6S4 152.8E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 060 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 310 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 140 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 060900Z5 POSITION 17.3S1 155.9E0 TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE ABOUT A VERY LARGE CIRCULATION CENTER. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 990MB, HOWEVER INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL INDICATE MAXIMUM WINDS OF NEAR 30KTS (DVORAK 2.0) AS THERE IS VERY LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE SYSTEMS CENTER. SYNOPTIC DATA FROM SHIP REPORTS AND NEAR BY ISLAND REPORTS FROM 120 TO 180NM AWAY FROM THE CIRCULATION CENTER SHOW WINDS WITHIN THE MONSOON FLOW BOTH TO THE NORTH AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE CIRCULATION ARE IN EXCESS OF 35 KNOTS. THESE STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY WRAP INTO AND BE A PART OF THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 12 FEET. REFER TO WWPW30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z2 (DTG 061353Z8), 062100Z9 (DTG 061953Z4), 070300Z0 (DTG 070153Z6) AND 070900Z6 (DTG 070753Z2). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (GAVIN) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTPS32 PGTW 970306 15:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P WARNING NR 003 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 061200Z9 --- 17.4S2 154.9E9 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 17.4S2 154.9E9 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z7 --- 17.4S2 154.5E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z0 --- 17.4S2 154.0E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 310 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 120 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z8 --- 17.4S2 153.5E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 310 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 120 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z1 --- 17.4S2 153.1E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 050 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 310 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 130 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z2 --- 17.0S8 152.1E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 060 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 310 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 140 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 061500Z2 POSITION 17.4S2 154.8E8 TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (TC 32P) IS SLOWLY INTENSIFYING IN THE CORAL SEA. TC 32P IS DEVELOPING FROM A VERY LARGE CIRCULATION CENTER AND IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A SLOWER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE. WE EXPECT TC 32P TO REMAIN IN AN AREA OF WEAK STEERING FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z0 IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z9 (DTG 061953Z4), 070300Z0 (DTG 070153Z6), 070900Z6 (DTG 070753Z2) AND 071500Z3 (DTG 071353Z9). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (GAVIN) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTPS32 PGTW 970306 21:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P WARNING NR 004 RELOCATED 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 061800Z5 --- 16.9S6 154.1E1 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 320 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 200 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S6 154.1E1 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z3 --- 16.8S5 153.6E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 320 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 200 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z6 --- 16.8S5 153.0E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 320 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 200 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z4 --- 16.8S5 152.5E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 320 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 200 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 02 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z7 --- 16.5S2 152.2E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 050 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 320 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 200 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z8 --- 16.1S8 151.6E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 060 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 325 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 200 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 062100Z9 POSITION 16.9S6 154.0E0 TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS THE WEST IN THE CORAL SEA. THE POSITION OF TC 32P HAS BEEN RELOCATED DUE TO SYNOPTIC DATA FROM LIHOU REEF (WMO 94296) AS WELL AS 061248Z1 SCATTEROMETRY. THIS DATA SHOWS THE CIRCULATION CENTER TO BE FARTHER NORTH AND WEST THAN WE PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THIS SAME SCATTEROMETRY DATA ALSO SHOWS THAT TC 32P HAS INTENSIFIED TO 40 KNOTS WITH A VERY LARGE GALE (WINDS GREATER THAN 35 KNOTS) RADIUS. TC 32P IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A RELATIVELY WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST AS IT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARDS THE WEST. WE EXPECT TC 32P TO INTENSIFY SLOWER THAN CLIMATOLOGY BASED ON ITS LARGE SIZE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z5 IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070300Z0 (DTG 070153Z6), 070900Z6 (DTG 070753Z2), 071500Z3 (DTG 071353Z9) AND 072100Z0 (DTG 071953Z5). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (GAVIN) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTPS32 PGTW 970307 03:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 005 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 070000Z7 --- 16.9S6 153.5E4 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 360 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S6 153.5E4 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z0 --- 16.9S6 152.8E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 360 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z8 --- 16.8S5 152.3E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 370 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z1 --- 16.6S3 151.8E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 060 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 380 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 280 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 01 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z9 --- 16.4S1 151.6E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 060 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 380 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 280 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z1 --- 16.5S2 152.5E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 060 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 360 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 280 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 070300Z0 POSITION 16.9S6 153.3E2 TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS. SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE DISPLACED AWAY FROM THE CENTER. HOWEVER BOTH SYNOPTIC DATA AND SCATTEROMETER INFORMATION SHOW A VERY LARGE EXTENT OF GALE FORCE WINDS AROUND THE SYSTEMS CENTER. LATEST NUMERICAL FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CONTINUED SLOW WESTWARD MOTION AND THEN A TURN BACK TOWARDS THE EAST IN THE OUTLOOK PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 18 FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z6 (DTG 070753Z2), 071500Z3 (DTG 071353Z9), 072100Z0 (DTG 071953Z5) AND 080300Z1 (DTG 080153Z7). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (GAVIN) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTPS32 PGTW 970307 09:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 006 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 070600Z3 --- 16.9S6 152.9E7 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 330 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S6 152.9E7 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z6 --- 16.7S4 152.0E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 330 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z4 --- 16.6S3 151.2E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 060 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 335 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z7 --- 16.3S0 150.4E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 060 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 310 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 250 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 02 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z5 --- 15.9S5 150.5E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 060 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 250 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z7 --- 16.0S7 151.5E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 060 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 250 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 070900Z6 POSITION 16.9S6 152.7E5 LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) IS MOVING WEST AT 06 KNOTS. SYNOPTIC REPORTS FROM LIHOU REEF (WMO 94296) WITH A 985MB PRESSURE INDICATE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS TO THEIR EAST-NORTHEAST. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES THAT CONVECTION IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO ORGANIZE ABOUT ITS CENTER. FORECAST MOTION CONTINUES TO BE SLOW WITH NUMERICAL MODELS SUGGESTING A TURN BACK TOWARDS THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AFTER 48 HOURS. THIS WOULD BE IN RESPONSE TO THE RIDGE MOVING BACK OVER AUSTRALIA SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM WHILE A TROUGH DEEPENS JUST WEST OF THE NORTH ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND. MOVEMENT OF TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (GAVIN) WILL ALSO AFFECT THE CHARACTER OF THIS TROUGH. WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED TO REFLECT CURRENT SYNOPTIC DATA WHILE MAINTAINING THE STRONG WESTERLY BURST NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 21 FEET. REFER TO WWPW30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 071500Z3 (DTG 071353Z9), 072100Z0 (DTG 071953Z5), 080300Z1 (DTG 080153Z7) AND 080900Z7 (DTG 080753Z3). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (GAVIN) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTPS32 PGTW 970307 15:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 007 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 071200Z0 --- 16.9S6 152.3E1 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 330 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S6 152.3E1 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z8 --- 16.7S4 151.5E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 330 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z1 --- 16.5S2 150.8E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 060 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 335 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z9 --- 16.0S7 150.4E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 060 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 310 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 250 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 02 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z2 --- 15.8S4 150.8E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 060 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 250 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z4 --- 16.0S7 151.8E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 060 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 250 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 071500Z3 POSITION 16.9S6 152.1E9 TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) IS STILL TRACKING TOWARDS THE WEST, ALTHOUGH IT MAY HAVE SLOWED OUT OVER THE PAST THREE HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER EASTERN AUSTRALIA IS IMPEDING OUTFLOW OF TC 32P TO THE SOUTH ALTHOUGH OUTFLOW LOOKS GOOD IN THE OTHER QUADRANTS. ACCORDINGLY, HEAVY CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC 32P IS ELONGATED ALONG AN AXIS FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST AND FURTHER SYMMETRIZATION IS NECESSARY BEFORE SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION CAN OCCUR. THEREFORE, WE EXPECT TC 32P TO DEVELOP AT A SLOWER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE. TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS WARNING. WE ARE EXPECTING TC 32P TO BEGIN TO EXECUTE A LOOP WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS, AND BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARDS THE EAST BEYOND 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z0 IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z0 (DTG 071953Z5), 080300Z1 (DTG 080153Z7), 080900Z7 (DTG 080753Z3) AND 081500Z4 (DTG 081353Z0). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (GAVIN) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTPS32 PGTW 970307 21:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 008 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 071800Z6 --- 16.9S6 152.1E9 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 330 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S6 152.1E9 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z4 --- 16.8S5 151.8E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 330 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z7 --- 16.5S2 151.2E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 060 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 335 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z5 --- 16.2S9 150.6E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 060 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 310 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 250 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z8 --- 15.8S4 151.0E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 060 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 250 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z0 --- 16.0S7 152.3E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 060 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 250 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 072100Z0 POSITION 16.9S6 152.0E8 TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) IS SLOWLY MOVING WESTWARD IN THE CORAL SEA. OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS THE SURFACE WINDS FROM LIHOU REEF (WMO 94296) HAVE SHIFTED FROM SOUTHERLY TO EASTERLY, CONSISTENT WITH THE CURRENT WARNING POSITION AND SPEED. SYSTEM CONVECTION AND ORGANIZATION HAS ALSO INCREASED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS AS INDICATED BY OUR 071800Z6 SATELLITE ANALYSIS INDICATING AN INCREASE IN DVORAK T NUMBER TO T3.0. THE CLOUD PATTERN IS STARTING TO CATCH UP WITH THE SURFACE WINDS SHOWN EARLIER IN THE SCATTEROMETRY DATA. FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS TWO WARNINGS. WE EXPECT TC 32P TO MOVE WESTWARD EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD BEFORE LOOPING AND TURNING TOWARDS THE EAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z6 IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z1 (DTG 080153Z7), 080900Z7 (DTG 080753Z3), 081500Z4 (DTG 081353Z0) AND 082100Z1 (DTG 081953Z6). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (GAVIN) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTPS32 PGTW 970308 03:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 009 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 080000Z8 --- 16.9S6 151.8E5 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 330 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S6 151.8E5 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z1 --- 16.8S5 151.4E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 330 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z9 --- 16.7S4 150.9E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 060 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 335 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z2 --- 16.4S1 150.6E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 060 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 310 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 250 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 02 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z1 --- 16.1S8 150.8E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 060 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 250 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z2 --- 16.0S7 152.1E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 060 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 250 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 080300Z1 POSITION 16.9S6 151.7E4 TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS. WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 072330Z VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF SURFACE WIND REPORTS IN THE AREA AND SURFACE PRESSURE READINGS FROM LIHOU REEF (WMO 94296). JUSTIN IS QUASI-STATIONARY AND IS FORECAST TO DRIFT WESTWARD THROUGH 24 HOURS, THEN GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE EAST AS THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN IT AND GAVIN REORIENTS. JUSTIN IS STILL FORECAST TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR LESSENS OVER IT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z7 (DTG 080753Z3), 081500Z4 (DTG 081353Z0), 082100Z1 (DTG 081953Z6) AND 090300Z2 (DTG 090153Z8). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (GAVIN) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTPS32 PGTW 970308 09:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 010 RELOCATED 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 080600Z4 --- 16.9S6 152.1E9 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 330 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 250 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S6 152.1E9 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z7 --- 17.0S8 151.9E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 330 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 250 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z5 --- 17.1S9 151.5E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 055 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 330 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 250 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z8 --- 17.1S9 151.2E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 060 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 320 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 250 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 02 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z7 --- 17.2S0 150.9E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 060 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 310 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 250 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z8 --- 17.2S0 150.0E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 060 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 250 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 080900Z7 POSITION 16.9S6 152.0E8 TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) IS MOVING VERY SLOWLY WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION IS RELOCATED BASED ON 080530Z VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 080600Z SURFACE SYNOPTIC REPORTS FROM LIHOU REEF (WMO 94296). THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF SURFACE SYNOPTIC WIND AND PRESSURE REPORTS. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P IS NOW FORECAST TO PROGRESS SLOWLY IN A GENERAL WESTWARD DIRECTION THROUGH 72 HOURS. THE MID- LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER AUSTRALIA IS FORECAST TO RECEDE SLOWLY WESTWARD AND ALLOW JUSTIN TO CONTINUE ITS CURRENT GENERAL HEADING. THE PREPONDERANCE OF OUR FORECAST AIDS SUPPORT THIS SLOW WESTWARD TRACK THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. A TURN TOWARD THE EAST IS NOW CONSIDERED TO BE A LOW-PROBABILITY ALTERNATE FORECAST SCENARIO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 081500Z4 (DTG 081353Z0), 082100Z1 (DTG 081953Z6), 090300Z2 (DTG 090153Z8) AND 090900Z8 (DTG 090753Z4). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (GAVIN) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTPS32 PGTW 970308 15:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 011 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 081200Z1 --- 17.2S0 151.8E5 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 340 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 250 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 17.2S0 151.8E5 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z9 --- 17.4S2 151.4E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 340 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 250 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z2 --- 17.6S4 150.7E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 055 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 340 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 250 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z1 --- 17.7S5 150.1E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 060 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 340 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 250 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z4 --- 17.9S7 149.4E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 060 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 325 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 250 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z5 --- 18.0S9 148.7E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 060 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 310 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 250 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 081500Z4 POSITION 17.2S0 151.7E4 TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) IS MOVING WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM REMAINS LOCATED WITHIN A WEAK MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW ENVIRONMENT DUE TO THE COMBINED EFFECT OF EASTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND NORTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL CYCLONE-INDUCED RIDGE TO THE EAST OF TC 32P (JUSTIN). THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE PRIMARILY WESTWARD WITH A SLIGHT GAIN IN LATITUDE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD AT THIS TIME; HOWEVER, SHOULD TC 32P (JUSTIN) INTENSIFY SIGNIFICANTLY, THEN A MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK IS EXPECTED. WIND RADII ARE BASED ON SYNOPTIC SHIP REPORTS AT 12Z. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z1 (DTG 081953Z6), 090300Z2 (DTG 090153Z8), 090900Z8 (DTG 090753Z4) AND 091500Z5 (DTG 091353Z1). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (GAVIN) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTPS32 PGTW 970308 21:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 012 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 081800Z7 --- 17.3S1 151.4E1 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 340 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 250 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 17.3S1 151.4E1 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z5 --- 17.5S3 150.6E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 340 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 250 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z8 --- 17.7S5 150.0E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 055 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 340 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 250 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z7 --- 17.9S7 149.4E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 060 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 340 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 250 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z0 --- 18.1S0 148.7E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 060 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 325 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 250 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z1 --- 18.6S5 147.6E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 060 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 310 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 250 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 082100Z1 POSITION 17.4S2 151.2E9 TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) IS MOVING WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS. WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 081830Z INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE SYNOPTIC DATA FROM LIHOU REEF (WMO 94296) AND WILLIS ISL (WMO 94299). INFRARED SATELLITE LOOP INDICATES SYSTEM MOTION REMAINS SLOW AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS STILL NOT WELL- DEFINED. TC 32P (JUSTIN) REMAINS IN A WEAK MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW ENVIRONMENT. OVERALL STEERING FLOW IS EASTERLY; THEREFORE, THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD AND SLOWLY GAIN LATITUDE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z2 (DTG 090153Z8), 090900Z8 (DTG 090753Z4), 091500Z5 (DTG 091353Z1) AND 092100Z2 (DTG 091953Z7). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (GAVIN) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTPS32 PGTW 970309 03:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 013 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 090000Z9 --- 17.4S2 151.0E7 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 340 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 250 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 17.4S2 151.0E7 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z2 --- 17.5S3 150.2E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 340 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 250 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z1 --- 17.7S5 149.6E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 055 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 340 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 250 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z4 --- 17.9S7 148.9E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 060 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 340 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 250 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z2 --- 18.1S0 148.2E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 060 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 325 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 250 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z3 --- 18.5S4 146.7E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 060 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 310 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 250 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 090300Z2 POSITION 17.4S2 150.8E4 TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) IS MOVING WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS. THE CURRENT WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 082330Z VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY, A 090000Z SURFACE SYNOPTIC REPORT FROM LIHOU REEF (WMO 94296) AND A 082000Z SURFACE SYNOPTIC REPORT FROM WILLIS ISLETS (WMO 94299). WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF 090000Z SURFACE WIND REPORTS AND A SATELLITE-DERIVED CURRENT INTENSITY ANALYSIS USING 082330Z VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN FORECAST REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. JUSTIN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN STEERING FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THUS, TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THE SAME GENERAL HEADING AND SPEED. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z8 (DTG 090753Z4), 091500Z5 (DTG 091353Z1), 092100Z2 (DTG 091953Z7) AND 100300Z4 (DTG 100153Z0). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (GAVIN) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTPS32 PGTW 970309 09:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 014 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 090600Z5 --- 17.5S3 150.7E3 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 045 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 340 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 250 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S3 150.7E3 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z8 --- 17.6S4 150.1E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 050 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 340 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 250 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z7 --- 17.8S6 149.4E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 055 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 340 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 250 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z0 --- 17.9S7 148.8E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 060 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 340 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 250 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z8 --- 18.0S9 148.0E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 060 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 325 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 250 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z9 --- 18.0S9 146.6E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 060 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 310 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 250 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 090900Z8 POSITION 17.5S3 150.6E2 TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) IS MOVING SLOWLY WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 090530Z VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 090600Z SURFACE SYNOPTIC REPORT FROM WILLIS ISLETS (WMO 94299) AND AN 090500Z SURFACE SYNOPTIC REPORT FROM LIHOU REEF (WMO 94276). THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF A SATELLITE-DERIVED CURRENT INTENSITY ANALYSIS USING THE SAME SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS 090600Z SURFACE PRESSURE REPORTS FROM LIHOU REEF. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN FORECAST REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. JUSTIN IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AND INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z5 (DTG 091353Z1), 092100Z2 (DTG 091953Z7), 100300Z4 (DTG 100153Z0) AND 100900Z0 (DTG 100753Z6). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (GAVIN) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTPS32 PGTW 970309 15:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 015 RELOCATED 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 091200Z2 --- 17.1S9 151.0E7 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 01 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 050 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 340 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 280 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S9 151.0E7 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z1 --- 17.1S9 150.6E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 050 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 340 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 280 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z4 --- 17.2S0 150.1E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 055 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 340 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 280 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z2 --- 17.3S1 149.5E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 060 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 340 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 280 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z5 --- 17.4S2 148.8E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 060 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 330 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 265 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z6 --- 17.6S4 147.7E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 060 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 315 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 255 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 091500Z5 POSITION 17.1S9 150.9E5 TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) IS QUASI-STATIONARY WITH A WESTWARD DRIFT OF 1 KNOT. WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC REPORTS FROM WILLIS ISL (WMO 94299) AND LIHOU REEF (WMO 94276). THIS IS A RELOCATED WARNING BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOPS AND SYNOPTIC DATA. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM CENTER IS NOT WELL DEFINED AND THE DEEPEST CONVECTION IS LOCATED AWAY FROM THE CENTER. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF SATELLITE-DERIVED DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND SYNOPTIC REPORTS. WIND RADII ARE BASED ON 12Z SYNOPTIC SHIP AND LAND REPORTS. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN FORECAST REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. TC 32P (JUSTIN) IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, AND INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AFTER 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z2 (DTG 091953Z7), 100300Z4 (DTG 100153Z0), 100900Z0 (DTG 100753Z6) AND 101500Z7 (DTG 101353Z3). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (GAVIN) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTPS32 PGTW 970309 21:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 016 RELOCATED 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 091800Z8 --- 16.8S5 151.2E9 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 01 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 050 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 340 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 410 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 16.8S5 151.2E9 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z7 --- 16.8S5 150.9E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 050 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 340 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 410 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z0 --- 16.9S6 150.4E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 055 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 340 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 400 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z8 --- 17.0S8 149.9E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 060 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 340 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 400 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z1 --- 17.1S9 149.2E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE 060 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 330 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 400 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z2 --- 17.2S0 148.0E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE 060 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 325 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 400 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 092100Z2 POSITION 16.8S5 151.1E8 TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) IS QUASI-STATIONARY. WARNING POSITION HAS BEEN RELOCATED BASED ON A 091249Z SCATTEROMETER PASS AND SYNOPTIC DATA FROM WILLIS ISL (WMO 94299) AND LIHOU REEF (WMO 94276). THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN CHANGED BASED ON THE SAME SCATTEROMETER PASS. THE SYSTEM REMAINS LOCATED WITHIN A WEAK MID-LEVEL STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THE STEERING FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE SLIGHTLY OVER THE STEERING FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE EQUATORIAL WESTERLIES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLOW WESTWARD DRIFT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 0901800Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100300Z4 (DTG 100153Z0), 100900Z0 (DTG 100753Z6), 101500Z7 (DTG 101353Z3) AND 102100Z4 (DTG 101953Z9). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (GAVIN) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTPS32 PGTW 970310 03:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 017 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 100000Z1 --- 16.8S5 151.2E9 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - QUASI-STATIONARY POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE 065 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 340 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 315 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 16.8S5 151.2E9 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z4 --- 16.8S5 151.1E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE 065 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 340 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 315 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z2 --- 16.8S5 150.9E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE 070 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 340 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 315 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z5 --- 16.8S5 150.7E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE 075 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 340 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 315 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z3 --- 16.8S5 150.2E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE 075 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 330 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 315 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z4 --- 16.9S6 149.3E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE 075 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 325 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 305 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 100300Z4 POSITION 16.8S5 151.2E9 TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) IS QUASI-STATIONARY. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 092330Z VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE SYNOPTIC REPORTS FROM LIHOU REEF (WMO 94296) AND WILLIS ISLETS (WMO 94299). WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF A SATELLITE-DERIVED CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE USING 092330Z SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AN 092100Z SURFACE PRESSURE REPORT FROM LIHOU REEF. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN WEAK STEERING FLOW FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THEN MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO ITS SOUTHEAST. SOME SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. JUSTIN IS OVER WARM WATERS AND HAS FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z0 (DTG 100753Z6), 101500Z7 (DTG 101353Z3), 102100Z4 (DTG 101953Z9) AND 110300Z5 (DTG 110153Z1). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (GAVIN) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= warning 018 not available ========================================================================= WTPS32 PGTW 970310 15:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 019 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 101200Z4 --- 16.7S4 151.3E0 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 01 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE 080 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 350 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 320 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 16.7S4 151.3E0 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z2 --- 16.6S3 151.1E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE 080 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 350 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 320 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z5 --- 16.8S5 150.9E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE 080 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 350 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 320 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z3 --- 16.9S6 150.6E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE 080 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 345 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 315 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 02 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z6 --- 17.0S8 150.3E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE 080 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 335 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 315 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z7 --- 17.1S9 149.8E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE 080 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 335 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 315 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 101500Z7 POSITION 16.7S4 151.3E0 TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) IS QUASI-STATIONARY. THE SYSTEM REMAINS LOCATED BETWEEN WILLIS ISL (WMO 94299) AND LIHOU REEF (WMO 94296). THE TROPICAL CYCLONE REMAINS LOCATED WITHIN A WEAK MID-LEVEL STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. TC 32P (JUSTIN) IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD THOUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO EASTERLY STEERING FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. OUR PRIMARY DYNAMIC OBJECTIVE FORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THIS TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 23 FEET. REFER TO HIGH WIND AND SEAS WARNING FOR TANDEM THRUST EXERCISE 97 FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z4 (DTG 101953Z9), 110300Z5 (DTG 110153Z1), 110900Z1 (DTG 110753Z7) AND 111500Z8 (DTG 111353Z4). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (GAVIN) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE- HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTPS32 PGTW 970310 21:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 020 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 101800Z0 --- 16.6S3 151.4E1 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 01 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE 080 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 350 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 320 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S3 151.4E1 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z8 --- 16.6S3 151.2E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE 080 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 350 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 320 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z1 --- 16.7S4 151.0E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE 080 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 350 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 320 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z9 --- 16.8S5 150.7E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE 080 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 345 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 315 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 02 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z2 --- 16.9S6 150.4E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE 080 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 335 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 315 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z3 --- 17.0S8 150.0E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE 080 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 335 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 315 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 102100Z4 POSITION 16.6S3 151.4E1 TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) IS QUASI-STATIONARY AND REMAINS LOCATED BETWEEN WILLIS ISL (WMO 94299) AND LIHOU REEF (WMO 94296). THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE FORECAST REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE REMAINS LOCATED IN A WEAK MID-LEVEL STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD DUE TO WEAK EASTERLY STEERING FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WHICH IS BUILDING TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 23 FEET. REFER TO HIGH WIND AND SEAS WARNING FOR TANDEM THRUST EXERCISE 97 FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110300Z5 (DTG 10153Z1), 110900Z1 (DTG 110753Z7), 111500Z8 (DTG 11353Z4) AND 112100Z5 (DTG 111953Z0). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (GAVIN) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTPS32 PGTW 970311 03:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 021 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 110000Z2 --- 16.5S2 151.5E2 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 01 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE 080 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 350 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 320 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S2 151.5E2 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z5 --- 16.5S2 151.2E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE 080 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 350 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 320 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z3 --- 16.6S3 151.0E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE 080 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 350 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 320 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z6 --- 16.6S3 150.8E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE 080 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 345 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 315 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 02 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z4 --- 16.5S2 150.5E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE 080 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 335 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 315 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z5 --- 16.3S0 150.0E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE 080 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 335 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 315 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 110300Z5 POSITION 16.5S2 151.4E1 TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) IS QUASISTATIONARY IN THE CORAL SEA. CURRENT WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA FROM LIHOU REEF (WMO 94296) AND WILLIS ISLAND (WMO 94299). TC 32P IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 72 HOURS AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT ABOUT THE SAME INTENSITY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z2 IS 23 FEET. REFER TO HIGH WIND AND SEAS WARNING FOR TANDEM THRUST EXERCISE 97 FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z1 (DTG 110753Z7), 111500Z8 (DTG 111353Z4), 112100Z5 (DTG 111953Z0) AND 120300Z6 (DTG 120153Z2). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (GAVIN) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE- HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTPS32 PGTW 970311 09:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 022 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 110600Z8 --- 16.5S2 151.5E2 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - QUASISTATIONARY POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE 080 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 350 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 320 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S2 151.5E2 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z1 --- 16.5S2 151.4E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE 080 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 350 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 320 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z9 --- 16.4S1 151.1E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE 080 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 350 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 320 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z2 --- 16.3S0 151.0E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE 080 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 345 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 315 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z0 --- 16.3S0 150.6E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE 080 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 335 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 315 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z1 --- 16.2S9 149.9E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE 080 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 335 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 315 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 110900Z1 POSITION 16.5S2 151.5E2 TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) HAS REMAINED QUASISTATIONARY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. WE EXPECT TC 32P TO REMAIN IN A WEAK STEERING FLOW ENVIRONMENT FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST WITH A SMALL WESTWARD DRIFT FORECAST LATE IN THE PERIOD DUE TO A RIDGE FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AUSTRALIAN CONTINENT PROVIDING SOME WEAK WESTERLY STEERING FLOW. TC 32P IS NOT FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z8 IS 23 FEET. REFER TO HIGH WIND AND SEAS WARNING FOR TANDEM THRUST EXERCISE 97 FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z8 (DTG 111353Z4), 112100Z5 (DTG 111953Z0), 120300Z6 (DTG 120153Z2) AND 120900Z2 (DTG 120753Z8). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (GAVIN) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. // ========================================================================= WTPS32 PGTW 970311 15:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 023 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 111200Z5 --- 16.6S3 151.2E9 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 01 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE 080 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 350 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 320 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S3 151.2E9 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z3 --- 16.5S2 151.1E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE 080 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 350 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 320 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 00 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z6 --- 16.5S2 151.0E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE 080 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 350 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 320 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z4 --- 16.4S1 150.9E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE 080 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 345 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 315 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 02 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z7 --- 16.3S0 150.6E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE 080 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 335 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 315 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z8 --- 16.2S9 149.8E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE 080 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 335 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 315 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 111500Z8 POSITION 16.6S3 151.2E9 TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY IN THE SOUTHWEST PACIFIC. DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS TC 32P HAS DISPLAYED A VERY SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT WHICH CAN BE INFERRED FROM ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY. TC 32P LIES EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN A REGION WHERE EASTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE USUALLY PREDOMINATE THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENTAL STEERING FLOW ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER, STRONGER THAN USUAL WESTERLIES EXIST NORTH OF TC 32P AND THE OPPOSING STEERING FORCE FROM THESE WESTERLIES APPEARS TO BE ANCHORING TC 32P IN PLACE ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH. NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE THESE WESTERLIES WILL FLUCTUATE BOTH IN INTENSITY AND PROXIMITY TO TC 32P DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WE EXPECT THE MOTION OF TC 32P TO RESPOND TO THESE CHANGES BY SLOWLY ACCELERATING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD (THAT IS, IF 2 KNOTS OF MOTION CAN ACTUALLY BE CALLED ACCELERATING). HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF TC 32P AND THE ASSOCIATED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ARE EXPECTED TO PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z5 IS 23 FEET. REFER TO HIGH WIND AND SEAS WARNING FOR TANDEM THRUST EXERCISE 97 FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z5 (DTG 111953Z0), 120300Z6 (DTG 120153Z2), 120900Z2 (DTG 120753Z8) AND 121500Z9 (DTG 121353Z5). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (GAVIN) WARNINGS ========================================================================= WTPS32 PGTW 970311 21:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 024 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 111800Z1 --- 16.6S3 151.2E9 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 00 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE 080 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 350 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 320 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S3 151.2E9 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z9 --- 16.5S2 151.1E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE 080 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 350 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 320 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z2 --- 16.4S1 150.9E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE 080 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 350 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 320 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z0 --- 16.2S9 150.6E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE 080 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 345 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 315 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 01 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z3 --- 16.2S9 150.3E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE 080 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 335 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 315 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z4 --- 16.2S9 149.6E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE 080 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 335 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 315 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 112100Z5 POSITION 16.6S3 151.2E9 TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY IN THE SOUTHWEST PACIFIC. IT IS EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH. UNDER NORMAL CIRCUMSTANCES EASTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE WOULD STEER A SYSTEM SUCH AS THIS TOWARD THE WEST, HOWEVER THERE ARE STRONG PERSISTENT WESTERLY WINDS NORTH OF TC 32P WHICH CONTINUE TO PROVIDE AN OPPOSING STEERING FORCE WHICH HAS SLOWED THE MOTION OF TC 32P. CURRENT POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON A 11/1730Z ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY ANALYSIS SUPPORTING THE PRESENCE OF 45 KNOTS, COMBINED WITH SYNOPTIC DATA WHICH INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF STRONGER WINDS. WE EXPECT THE EFFECT OF THE WESTERLY WINDS TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, ALLOWING TC 32P TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. RIDGING TO THE SOUTHWEST OF TC 32P IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO LIMIT ANY SIGNIFICANT MOTION TO THE SOUTHWEST. OUR PRIMARY DYNAMIC FORECAST GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z1 IS 23 FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120300Z6 (DTG 120153Z2), 120900Z2 (DTG 120753Z8), 121500Z9 (DTG 121353Z5) AND 122100Z6 (DTG 121953Z1). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (GAVIN) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. // ========================================================================= WTPS32 PGTW 970312 03:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 025 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 120000Z3 --- 16.5S2 151.5E2 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 01 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 350 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 320 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S2 151.5E2 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z6 --- 16.5S2 151.4E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 350 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 320 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z4 --- 16.5S2 151.1E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 350 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 320 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z7 --- 16.5S2 150.9E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 345 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 315 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 02 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z5 --- 16.4S1 150.4E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 335 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 315 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z6 --- 16.4S1 149.7E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 335 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 315 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 120300Z6 POSITION 16.5S2 151.5E2 TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY IN THE CORAL SEA. THE TRANSLATIONAL SPEED AT WARNING TIME OF 01 KNOT IS A REFLECTION OF BOTH THE WOBBLE OF THE STORM CENTER AS WELL AS OUR UNCERTAINTY AS TO ITS EXACT LOCATION AND IS NOT AN INDICATION OF SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE MOTION. OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS TC 32P HAS WEAKENED SOMEWHAT DUE TO EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS SHOWN IN ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. WE EXPECT TC 32P TO CONTINUE TO HAVE TROUBLE DEVELOPING DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH IT IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. GALE WIND RADII CONTINUE TO BE LARGE IN AGREEMENT WITH SYNOPTIC DATA AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SHRINK SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. STEERING FLOW REMAINS WEAK AS THE WESTWARD STEERING FROM THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE COMBATS THE EASTWARD STEERING OF THE EQUATORIAL WESTERLY WIND BURST. WE EXPECT THE RIDGE TO BUILD LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AND FOR THE EQUATORIAL WESTERLIES TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT LEADING TO A SLOW WESTWARD MOVEMENT OF TC 32P BEYOND 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z3 IS 21 FEET. REFER TO HIGH WIND AND SEAS WARNING FOR TANDEM THRUST EXERCISE 97 ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z2 (DTG 120753Z8), 121500Z9 (DTG 121353Z5), 122100Z6 (DTG 121953Z1) AND 130300Z7 (DTG 130153Z3). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (GAVIN) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= warning 026 not available ========================================================================= WTPS32 PGTW 970312 15:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 027 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 121200Z6 --- 16.3S0 151.5E2 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 01 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 350 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 320 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S0 151.5E2 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z4 --- 16.2S9 151.5E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 350 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 320 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z7 --- 16.0S7 151.4E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 350 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 320 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z5 --- 15.9S5 151.1E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 345 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 315 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 02 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z8 --- 15.8S4 150.7E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 335 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 315 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z9 --- 15.6S2 149.8E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT --- REMARKS: 121500Z9 POSITION 16.3S0 151.5E2 TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) IS DRIFTING NORTH VERY SLOWLY IN THE SOUTHWEST PACIFIC OCEAN. IT HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS AND HAS PROBABLY REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY. OUR WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY ANALYSIS INDICATING THE PRESENCE OF 45 KNOT WINDS (DVORAK CI 3.0) AT 121130Z8. TC 32P REMAINS EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN A REGION OF OVERALL WEAK STEERING FLOW. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FOR TC 32P HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY. THE ONLY CHANGE IS A FORECAST OF VERY SLOW WEAKENING TREND DURING THE OUTLOOK PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z5 IS 20 FEET. REFER TO WWPW30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z6 (DTG 121953Z1), 130300Z7 (DTG 130153Z3), 130900Z3 (DTG 130753Z9) AND 131500Z0 (DTG 131353Z6).// ========================================================================= WTPS32 PGTW 970312 21:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 028 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 121800Z2 --- 15.9S5 151.0E7 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 350 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 320 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 15.9S5 151.0E7 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z0 --- 15.5S1 150.4E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 350 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 320 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z3 --- 15.4S0 149.8E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 350 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 320 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z1 --- 15.2S8 149.2E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 345 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 315 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z4 --- 15.2S8 148.6E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z5 --- 15.2S8 147.5E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT --- REMARKS: 122100Z6 POSITION 15.8S4 150.8E4 TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) HAS BEGUN TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD. IT IS STILL EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK STEERING FLOW. OUR WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY ANALYSIS AT 121730Z4 INDICATING 45 KNOT WINDS (DVORAK CI 3.0). THE CURRENT MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS VERY DIFFICULT TO DISCERN, BUT IS EVIDENT IN ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SUPPORTED BY SYNOPTIC REPORTS FROM WILLIS ISLAND (WMO 94299). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z2 IS 21 FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130300Z7 (DTG 130153Z3), 130900Z3 (DTG 130753Z9), 131500Z0 (DTG 131353Z6) AND 132100Z7 (DTG 131953Z2).// ========================================================================= WTPS32 PGTW 970313 03:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 029 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 130000Z4 --- 15.6S2 151.2E9 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 340 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 310 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S2 151.2E9 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z7 --- 15.4S0 151.2E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 340 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 310 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z5 --- 15.3S9 151.3E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 340 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 310 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z8 --- 15.2S8 151.1E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 335 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 305 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 01 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z6 --- 15.2S8 150.8E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z7 --- 15.2S8 150.1E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT --- REMARKS: 130300Z7 POSITION 15.5S1 151.2E9 TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) IS MOVING NORTH AT 03 KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 122330Z VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS A 122300Z SURFACE SYNOPTIC REPORT FROM WILLIS ISLETS (WMO 94299). THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON A SATELLITE-DERIVED CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE USING 122330Z VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. JUSTIN HAS BEEN AND IS CURRENTLY QUASI-STATIONARY. CURRENT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY USING 121800Z SYNOPTIC SHIP REPORTS. A SLOW DRIFT TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P REMAINS IN WEAK NET STEERING BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND EQUATORIAL WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH. AFTER 36 HOURS, THE EQUATORIAL WESTERLIES ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STRENGTHENS. THIS CHANGE IN STEERING FLOW SHOULD CAUSE JUSTIN TO BEGIN MOVING SLOWLY WEST AT THAT TIME. JUSTIN IS EXPERIENCING UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IS SLOWLY WEAKENING. THAT TREND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130900Z3 (DTG 130753Z9), 131500Z0 (DTG 131353Z6), 132100Z7 (DTG 131953Z2) AND 140300Z8 (DTG 140153Z4).// ========================================================================= WTPS32 PGTW 970313 09:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 030 RELOCATED 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 130600Z0 --- 14.8S3 153.2E1 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 085 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 330 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 300 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S3 153.2E1 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z3 --- 14.9S4 153.8E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 330 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 300 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z1 --- 15.2S8 153.6E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 330 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 300 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z4 --- 15.3S9 153.1E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z2 --- 15.3S9 152.4E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z3 --- 15.3S9 151.7E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT --- REMARKS: 130900Z3 POSITION 14.8S3 153.4E3 TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS. THIS WARNING IS RELOCATED BASED ON AN EXPOSED LOW- LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IN 130530Z VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF A SATELLITE-DERIVED CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE USING 130530Z SATELLITE DATA AND A 130500Z SURFACE WIND REPORT FROM WILLIS SHOALS (WMO 94299). JUSTIN HAS BEEN WEAKENING AND HAS NO DEEP CONVECTION NEAR ITS LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DUE TO UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. JUSTIN IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE WEST AS EQUATORIAL WESTERLIES WEAKEN AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REBUILDS TO THE NORTH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 131500Z0 (DTG 131353Z6), 132100Z7 (DTG 131953Z2), 140300Z8 (DTG 140153Z4) AND 140900Z4 (DTG 140753Z0). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 33P (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= warning 031 not available ========================================================================= WTPS32 PGTW 970313 21:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 032 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 131800Z3 --- 14.8S3 153.6E5 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 100 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S3 153.6E5 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z1 --- 14.9S4 153.9E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z4 --- 15.0S6 154.2E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z2 --- 15.3S9 154.3E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 01 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z5 --- 15.5S1 154.3E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z6 --- 15.8S4 154.1E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT --- REMARKS: 132100Z7 POSITION 14.8S3 153.7E6 TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) IS MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE REMAINS IN A WEAK MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD EQUATORWARD OF THE SYSTEM AS A TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD OF THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 16 FEET. REFER TO HIGH WIND AND SEAS WARNING FOR TANDEM THRUST EXERCISE 97 FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140300Z8 (DTG 140153Z4), 140900Z4 (DTG 140753Z0), 141500Z1 (DTG 141353Z7) AND 142100Z8 (DTG 141953Z3). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 33P WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTPS32 PGTW 970314 03:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 033 RELOCATED 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 140000Z5 --- 14.6S1 153.3E2 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 14.6S1 153.3E2 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z8 --- 14.4S9 153.6E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z6 --- 14.6S1 153.9E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z9 --- 14.9S4 154.1E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 140300Z8 POSITION 14.5S0 153.4E3 TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) IS MOVING EAST- NORTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS. THIS WARNING IS RELOCATED BASED ON 132330Z VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON A SATELLITE DERIVED CURRENT INTENSITY ANALYSIS USING 122330Z VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. WINDS OF 30 TO 34 KNOTS CURRENTLY EXIST BOTH WELL TO THE NORTH AND WELL TO THE SOUTH OF JUSTIN IN TWO SEPARATE AREAS. THE NORTHERNMOST AREA IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE EQUATORIAL WESTERLIES AND THE SOUTHERNMOST AREA IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHEAST TRADES, RESPECTIVELY. JUSTIN HAS BEEN AND REMAINS QUASI- STATIONARY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND EQUATORIAL WESTERLIES. THIS SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AND THAT TREND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. JUSTIN IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 14 FEET. REFER TO HIGH WIND AND SEAS WARNING FOR TANDEM THRUST EXERCISE 97 FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140900Z4 (DTG 140753Z0), 141500Z1 (DTG 141353Z7), 142100Z8 (DTG 141953Z3) AND 150300Z9 (DTG 150153Z5). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 33P WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTPS32 PGTW 970314 09:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 034 RELOCATED 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 140600Z1 --- 13.7S1 152.7E5 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 13.7S1 152.7E5 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z4 --- 13.1S5 152.9E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z2 --- 12.6S9 153.5E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z5 --- 12.7S0 154.3E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 140900Z4 POSITION 13.6S0 152.7E5 TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 03 KNOTS. THIS WARNING IS RELOCATED BASED ON 140530Z VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE SAME SATELLITE IMAGERY. JUSTIN IS FORECAST TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THEN TURN TO THE SOUTH WHEN FLOW AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE. JUSTIN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE GRADUALLY WEAKENING. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141500Z1 (DTG 141353Z7), 142100Z8 (DTG 141953Z3), 150300Z9 (DTG 150153Z5) AND 150900Z5 (DTG 150753Z1). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 33P WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTPS32 PGTW 970314 15:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 035 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 141200Z8 --- 13.0S4 152.7E5 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 140 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 13.0S4 152.7E5 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z6 --- 12.8S1 152.8E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 140 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z9 --- 12.8S1 153.0E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 140 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z7 --- 13.0S4 153.3E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 140 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z0 --- 13.6S0 153.4E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 145 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z1 --- 14.6S1 153.1E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 145 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 141500Z1 POSITION 13.0S4 152.7E5 TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) IS QUASI-STATIONARY WITH A SLOW NORTHWARD DRIFT. CURRENT WIND RADII AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON SYNOPTIC SHIP REPORTS. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. AFTERWARDS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GAIN LATITUDE DUE TO NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL CYCLONE-INDUCED RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. OUR PRIMARY DYNAMIC OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSIFICATION SCENARIO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 16 FEET. REFER TO HIGH WIND AND SEAS WARNING FOR TANDEM THRUST EXERCISE 97 FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 142100Z8 (DTG 141953Z3), 150300Z9 (DTG 150153Z5), 150900Z5 (DTG 150753Z1) AND 151500Z2 (DTG 151353Z8). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 33P WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTPS32 PGTW 970314 21:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 036 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 141800Z4 --- 12.9S2 153.0E9 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 070 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 140 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 12.9S2 153.0E9 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z2 --- 12.8S1 153.3E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 140 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z5 --- 12.8S1 153.7E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 140 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z3 --- 13.2S6 154.0E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 140 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z6 --- 13.8S2 153.9E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 145 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z7 --- 14.9S4 153.4E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 145 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 142100Z8 POSITION 12.9S2 153.1E0 TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) IS MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE FORECAST REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. AFTERWARDS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AND MOVE SOUTHWARD DUE TO NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL CYCLONE-INDUCED RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. OUR PRIMARY DYNAMIC OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE SUPPORT THIS TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 18 FEET. REFER TO HIGH WIND AND SEAS WARNING FOR TANDEM THRUST EXERCISE 97 FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150300Z9 (DTG 150153Z5), 150900Z5 (DTG 150753Z1), 151500Z2 (DTG 151353Z8) AND 152100Z9 (DTG 151953Z4). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 33P WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTPS32 PGTW 970315 03:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 037 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 150000Z6 --- 12.5S8 154.0E0 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 160 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 12.5S8 154.0E0 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z9 --- 12.5S8 154.4E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 160 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z7 --- 13.0S4 154.5E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 160 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z0 --- 13.6S0 154.3E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 160 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z8 --- 14.2S7 154.1E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 170 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z9 --- 14.8S3 153.8E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 170 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 150300Z9 POSITION 12.5S8 154.1E1 TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) IS LOCATED OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN TIP OF NEW GUINEA TRACKING TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AT 04 KNOTS. CURRENT WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON A 141919Z5 MICROWAVE IMAGE AS WELL AS ANIMATED VISIBLE IMAGERY. WARNING INTENSITY AND WIND RADII ARE BASED ON SYNOPTIC SHIP REPORTS SURROUNDING TC 32P. WE EXPECT TC 32P TO MOVE EASTWARD EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THEN BEGIN TO TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTH IN 12 TO 24 HOURS. TC 32P IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO 50 KNOTS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z6 IS 18 FEET. REFER TO HIGH WIND AND SEAS WARNING FOR TANDEM THRUST EXERCISE 97 FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION (DTG 142334Z7). NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z5 (DTG 150753Z1), 151500Z2 (DTG 151353Z8), 152100Z9 (DTG 151953Z4) AND 160300Z0 (DTG 160153Z6). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 33P WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTPS32 PGTW 970315 09:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 038 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 150600Z2 --- 12.2S5 154.7E7 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 080 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 160 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 12.2S5 154.7E7 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z5 --- 12.2S5 155.2E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 160 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z3 --- 12.9S2 155.1E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 160 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z6 --- 13.3S7 154.8E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 160 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z4 --- 13.8S2 154.4E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 170 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z5 --- 14.6S1 153.6E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 170 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 150900Z5 POSITION 12.2S5 154.8E8 TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) IS TRACKING TO THE EAST AT 06 KNOTS OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN TIP OF NEW GUINEA. CURRENT WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY IS BASED ON 150530Z4 SATELLITE INTENSITY ANALYSIS. WE EXPECT TC 32P TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARDS THE EAST BEFORE MAKING A TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTH IN 12 TO 24 HOURS. VERY SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z2 IS 18 FEET. REFER TO HIGH WIND AND SEAS WARNING FOR TANDEM THRUST EXERCISE 97 FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION (DTG 142334Z7). NEXT WARNINGS AT 151500Z2 (DTG 151353Z8), 152100Z9 (DTG 151953Z4), 160300Z0 (DTG 160153Z6) AND 160900Z6 (DTG 160753Z2). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 33P (HINA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE- HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTPS32 PGTW 970315 15:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 039 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 151200Z9 --- 11.7S9 155.5E6 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 075 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 160 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 11.7S9 155.5E6 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z7 --- 11.7S9 156.2E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 235 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 160 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z0 --- 12.0S3 156.5E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 160 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z8 --- 12.4S7 156.6E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 245 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 160 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z1 --- 12.9S2 156.6E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 165 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z2 --- 13.7S1 156.3E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 170 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 151500Z2 POSITION 11.7S9 155.7E8 TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS. OUR WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON A 151130Z1 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY ANALYSIS INDICATING 55 KNOT WINDS. WIND RADII AT WARNING TIME ARE A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS WIND RADII ANALYSIS COMBINED WITH CURRENT SYNOPTIC LAND AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS. NO RECENT MICROWAVE OR SCATTEROMETRY DATA WAS AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS FOR THIS WARNING. TC 32P IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING GENERALLY EASTWARD ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, BUT SLOW ITS FORWARD MOTION IN RESPONSE TO RIDGING BUILDING BETWEEN IT AND TC 33P WHICH IS MOVING AWAY TO THE SOUTHEAST. NUMERICAL MODELS BUILD A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IN THE VICINITY OF NEW CALEDONIA WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO STEER TC 32P SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER 24 HOURS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INDUCED BY UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING SOUTH OF TC 32P IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO HINDER GOOD OUTFLOW AND THUS SLOW FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z9 IS 21 FEET. REFER TO HIGH WIND AND SEAS WARNINGS FOR TANDEM THRUST EXERCISE 97 FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 152100Z9 (DTG 151953Z4), 160300Z0 (DTG 160153Z6), 160900Z6 (DTG 160753Z2) AND 161500Z3 (DTG 161353Z9). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 33P (HINA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTPS32 PGTW 970315 21:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 040 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 151800Z5 --- 11.8S0 155.7E8 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 050 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 290 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 170 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 11.8S0 155.7E8 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z3 --- 11.8S0 156.2E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 050 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 290 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 170 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z6 --- 12.0S3 156.6E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 060 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 290 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 170 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z4 --- 12.4S7 156.8E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 070 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 295 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 170 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 02 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z7 --- 12.8S1 156.8E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 080 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 175 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z8 --- 13.6S0 156.6E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 085 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 175 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 152100Z9 POSITION 11.8S0 155.8E9 TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS. IT HAS INTENSIFIED DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. OUR WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON A 151630Z6 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY ANALYSIS INDICATING THE PRESENCE OF 65 KNOT WINDS (DVORAK T4.0). WIND RADII AT WARNING TIME HAVE BEEN EXPANDED DUE TO OBSERVATIONS FROM SHIPS VKAA AND PCDE WHICH REPORTED WINDS OF 35 AND 40 KNOTS RESPECTIVELY. TC 32P IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE TO ITS SOUTHEAST. DYNAMIC AND CLIMATOLOGICAL FORECAST GUIDANCE ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK. STATISTICAL FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES A MORE SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z5 IS 23 FEET. REFER TO HIGH WIND AND SEAS WARNINGS FOR TANDEM THRUST EXERCISE 97 FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z0 (DTG 160153Z6), 160900Z6 (DTG 160753Z2), 161500Z3 (DTG 161353Z9) AND 162100Z0 (DTG 161953Z5). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 33P (HINA) WARNINGS (WHPS31 PHNC) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTPS32 PGTW 970316 03:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 041 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 160000Z7 --- 12.2S5 156.0E2 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 050 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 290 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 170 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 12.2S5 156.0E2 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z0 --- 12.4S7 156.3E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 050 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 290 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 170 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z8 --- 12.8S1 156.5E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 060 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 290 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 170 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z1 --- 13.4S8 156.3E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 070 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 295 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 170 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z9 --- 14.0S5 156.0E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 080 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 175 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z0 --- 14.8S3 155.3E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 085 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 175 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 160300Z0 POSITION 12.2S5 156.1E3 TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) APPEARS TO HAVE STARTED TO MOVE TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC 32P HAS LOST SOME OF ITS ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AS UPPER-LEVEL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS PUSHED THE DEEP CONVECTION FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. CURRENT WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON THIS PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CLEARLY VISIBLE IN BOTH MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AS WELL AS MICROWAVE IMAGERY. FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS THE SAME AS PREVIOUS WARNINGS. ALTHOUGH STATISTICAL GUIDANCE (PERSISTANCE BLENDED WITH CLIMATOLOGY) WOULD TAKE THIS SYSTEM AWAY FROM THE AUSTRALIAN COAST, AND AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER- AND MID-LEVEL LOW ARE ENTERING THE SOUTHWESTERN AUSTRALIAN CONTINENT AT THIS TIME (AS SHOWN BY ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY), WE BELIEVE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN STRONG AND TC 32PWILL REMAIN UNDER ITS STEERING INFLUENCE, GRADUALLY BEGINNING TO WORK ITS WAY BACK TOWARDS THE WEST LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z7 IS 23 FEET. REFER TO HIGH WIND AND SEA WARNINGS FOR TANDEM THRUST 97 FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION (DTG 152334Z8). NEXT WARNINGS AT 160900Z6 (DTG 160753Z2), 161500Z3 (DTG 161353Z9), 162100Z0 (DTG 161953Z5) AND 170300Z1 (DTG 170153Z7). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 33P (HINA) WARNINGS (WHPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE- HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTPS32 PGTW 970316 09:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 042 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 160600Z3 --- 12.2S5 155.9E0 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 01 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 050 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 310 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 170 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 12.2S5 155.9E0 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z6 --- 12.4S7 156.0E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 050 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 310 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 170 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z4 --- 12.7S0 156.1E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 050 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 310 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 170 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z7 --- 13.1S5 156.0E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 050 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 310 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 170 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z5 --- 13.6S0 155.8E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 050 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 170 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z6 --- 14.4S9 155.2E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 050 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 175 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 160900Z6 POSITION 12.2S5 155.9E0 TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) HAS STALLED (AGAIN) IN THE CORAL SEA. ANIMATED VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THE CONVECTION HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS AND MOVED BACK OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE SYSTEM IS STILL FEELING THE EFFECTS OF EASTERLY SHEAR AS OUTFLOW ON THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STORM IS RESTRICTED. FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS WARNING. TC 32P IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY TOWARDS THE SOUTH BEFORE BEGINNING A TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD. WE DON=T EXPECT SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION OF THIS SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z3 IS 21 FEET. REFER TO HIGH WIND AND SEAS WARNINGS FOR TANDEM THRUST 97 (DTG 152334Z8) FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161500Z3 (DTG 161353Z9), 162100Z0 (DTG 161953Z5), 170300Z1 (DTG 170153Z7) AND 170900Z7 (DTG 170753Z3).// ========================================================================= WTPS32 PGTW 970316 15:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 043 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 161200Z0 --- 12.2S5 156.4E6 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 050 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 310 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 170 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 12.2S5 156.4E6 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z8 --- 12.2S5 156.9E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 050 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 310 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 170 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z1 --- 12.3S6 157.3E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 050 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 310 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 170 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z9 --- 12.6S9 157.5E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 050 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 310 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 170 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z2 --- 13.1S5 157.5E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 050 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 170 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z3 --- 13.6S0 157.1E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 050 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 175 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 161500Z3 POSITION 12.2S5 156.5E7 TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS IN THE CORAL SEA. IT HAS FLUCTUATED IN INTENSITY DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS DUE TO DIURNAL AND WIND SHEAR EFFECTS. WE EXPECT TC 32P TO FLUCTUATE UPWARD IN INTENSITY AGAIN TONIGHT DUE TO THE UPCOMING DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM PERIOD COMBINED WITH DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS INDICATED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS INTENSIFICATION TREND IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED, HOWEVER, DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BEING INDICATED BY NUMERICAL MODELS AT AND BEYOND 24 HOURS. AN ABUNDANCE OF DYNAMICAL FORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE TC 32P SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO RIDGING TO THE SOUTHEAST. ADDITIONALLY, SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A FAIRLY STRONG EXTRATROPICAL LOW IS APPROACHING FROM SOUTHWEST OF AUSTRALIA WHICH MAY ENHANCE A PRE-ESTABLISHED WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS TOWARD WHICH TC 32P MAY BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD IN THE LONGER RANGE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z0 IS 21 FEET. REFER TO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS WARNINGS FOR TANDEM THRUST EXERCISE 97 FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z0 (DTG 161953Z5), 170300Z1 (DTG 170153Z7), 170900Z7 (DTG 170753Z3) AND 171500Z4 (DTG 171353Z0).// ========================================================================= WTPS32 PGTW 970316 21:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 044 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 161800Z6 --- 12.9S2 155.9E0 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 050 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 310 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 170 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 12.9S2 155.9E0 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z4 --- 13.5S9 155.4E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 050 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 310 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 170 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z7 --- 14.0S5 154.9E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 050 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 310 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 170 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z5 --- 14.5S0 154.2E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 050 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 310 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 170 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z8 --- 14.9S4 153.4E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 050 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 170 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z9 --- 15.5S1 152.1E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 050 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 170 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 162100Z0 POSITION 13.1S5 155.8E9 TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) HAS TURNED TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AND IS MOVING AT 05 KNOTS. DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS TC 32P DEVELOPED A RAGGED, 40 NM DIAMETER CLOUD FILLED EYE. OUR WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON A 16730Z7 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY ANALYSIS INDICATING 75 KNOT WINDS (DVORAK T4.5). WE ARE REASONABLY CONFIDENT THIS SYSTEM HAS TURNED TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST DUE TO GOOD POSITIONS SUPPORTED BY RECENT EYE FIXES AND SCATTEROMETRY DURING SATELLITE ECLIPSE OPERATIONS. INDICATIONS THAT THE EYE HAS BEGUN TO FILL ALREADY SUPPORT A SLOW WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z6 IS 25 FEET. REFER TO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS WARNINGS FOR TANDEM THRUST EXERCISE 97 FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170300Z1 (DTG 170153Z7), 170900Z7 (DTG 170753Z3), 171500Z4 (DTG 171353Z0) AND 172100Z1 (DTG 171953Z6).// ========================================================================= WTPS32 PGTW 970317 03:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 045 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 170000Z8 --- 12.7S0 155.5E6 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 050 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 210 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 12.7S0 155.5E6 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z1 --- 13.0S4 154.9E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 050 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 210 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z9 --- 13.3S7 154.4E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 050 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 210 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z2 --- 13.7S1 153.9E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 050 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 210 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z0 --- 14.1S6 153.3E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 050 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 200 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z2 --- 14.7S2 152.5E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 050 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 200 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 170300Z1 POSITION 12.8S1 155.3E4 TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS IN THE CORAL SEA. CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON A 162330Z5 SATELLITE IMAGERY ANALYSIS SHOWING 65 KNOT WINDS (DVORAK T4.0). THE INTENSITY OF TC 32P SEEMS TO BE OSCILLATING, BUT IN THE MEAN WE BELIEVE THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN AROUND 60-65 KNOTS FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST. TRACK PHILOSOPHY REMAINS THE SAME AS PREVIOUS WARNINGS AND WE ARE FORECASTING TC 32P TO CONTINUE ON A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. STEERING FLOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN LATE IN THE PERIOD AND TC 32P MAY BEGIN TO SLOW BEYOND 48 HOURS. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A 161236Z9 SCATTEROMETRY PASS AND AVAILABLE SHIP SYNOPTIC DATA. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE AN EXTRAPOLATION OF OUR CURRENT WIND RADII. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z8 IS 25 FEET. REFER TO HIGH WIND AND SEAS WARNINGS FOR TANDEM THRUST 97 (DTG 162334Z9) FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z7 (DTG 170753Z3), 171500Z4 (DTG 171353Z0), 172100Z1 (DTG 171953Z6) AND 180300Z2 (DTG 180153Z8).// ========================================================================= WTPS32 PGTW 970317 09:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 046 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 170600Z4 --- 12.4S7 155.4E5 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 060 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 210 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 12.4S7 155.4E5 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z7 --- 12.4S7 155.2E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 060 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 210 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z5 --- 12.6S9 154.9E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 050 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 210 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z8 --- 12.9S2 154.5E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 050 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 210 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z6 --- 13.4S8 154.0E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 050 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 200 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z8 --- 14.1S6 153.1E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 050 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 200 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 170900Z7 POSITION 12.4S7 155.4E5 TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS IS TRACKING WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS IN THE CORAL SEA. CURRENT POSITION AND INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY (DVORALK T4.0) AND EXTRAPOLATION OF A 162330Z5 SCATTEROMETRY PASS. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON AVAILABLE SYNOPTIC DATA IN AGREEMENT WITH THE ABOVE MENTI ========================================================================= WTPS32 PGTW 970317 15:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 047 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 171200Z1 --- 12.4S7 155.2E3 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 060 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 210 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 12.4S7 155.2E3 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z9 --- 12.4S7 154.9E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 060 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 210 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z2 --- 12.6S9 154.5E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 065 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 210 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z0 --- 12.9S2 154.1E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 070 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 255 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 215 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z3 --- 13.4S8 153.7E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 070 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 255 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 215 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z5 --- 14.6S1 152.8E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 075 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 215 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 171500Z4 POSITION 12.4S7 155.1E2 TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS. IT IS LOCATED EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN A REGION OF WEAK EASTERLY STEERING FLOW INDUCED BY THE RIDGE. OUR WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY ANALYSIS AS OF 171130Z3 WHICH INDICATED 75 KNOT WINDS (DVORAK T4.5). A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS EXISTS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF TC 32P, AND WE EXPECT TC 32P TO TURN TOWARD IT DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS. MODULATION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BY AN APPROACHING EXTRATROPICAL LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE THIS WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE BY 72 HOURS AS TC 32P APPROACHES IT. MOST AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL, CLIMATOLOGICAL, AND STATISTICAL FORECAST GUIDANCE TOOLS GENERALLY AGREE WITH THE FORECAST TRACK. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS CONTINUED TO SLOW THE INTENSIFICATION OF TC 32P, BUT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY AND ALLOW FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z1 IS 24 FEET. REFER TO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS WARNINGS FOR TANDEM THRUST EXERCISE 97 FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z1 (DTG 171953Z6), 180300Z2 (DTG 180153Z8), 180900Z8 (DTG 180753Z4) AND 181500Z5 (DTG 181353Z1).// ========================================================================= WTPS32 PGTW 970317 21:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 048 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 171800Z7 --- 12.4S7 154.8E8 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 060 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 210 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 12.4S7 154.8E8 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z5 --- 12.4S7 154.3E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 070 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 255 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 215 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z8 --- 12.6S9 153.9E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 080 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 220 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z6 --- 13.1S5 153.4E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 090 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 220 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z9 --- 13.8S2 153.0E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 095 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 220 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z1 --- 15.2S8 152.4E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 100 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 220 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 172100Z1 POSITION 12.4S7 154.7E7 TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS IN THE CORAL SEA. IT HAS INTENSIFIED DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS AND NOW HAS A CLEARLY DEFINED EYE. OUR WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON A 171730Z9 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY ANALYSIS OF 90 KNOTS (DVORAK T5.0, ALMOST A T5.5). THE EYE DIAMETER IS CURRENTLY 27 NM. TC 32P IS LOCATED EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IS A REGION OF WEAK EASTERLY STEERING FLOW. THE FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY REMAINS VERY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS. DUE TO THE DIURNAL NATURE OF THE INTENSIFICATION TREND OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS WE EXPECT THIS SYSTEM TO REMAIN AT ITS CURRENT INTENSITY, OR WEAKEN SLIGHTLY, DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. HOWEVER, IT IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY QUICKLY AGAIN DURING THE 12 TO 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER 24 HOURS TC 32P IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A VERY SLOW INTENSIFICATION TREND AS IT APPROACHES THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR EFFECTS DIMINISH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z7 IS 25 FEET. REFER TO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS WARNINGS FOR TANDEM THRUST EXERCISE 97 FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180300Z2 (DTG 180153Z8), 180900Z8 (DTG 180753Z4), 181500Z5 (DTG 181353Z1) AND 182100Z2 (DTG 181953Z7).// ========================================================================= WTPS32 PGTW 970318 03:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 049 RELOCATED 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 180000Z9 --- 11.9S1 155.4E5 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 01 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 060 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 260 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 11.9S1 155.4E5 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z2 --- 12.0S3 155.6E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 070 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 260 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z0 --- 12.5S8 155.5E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 080 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 285 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 260 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z3 --- 12.9S2 155.1E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 090 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 285 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 260 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z2 --- 13.3S7 154.6E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 095 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 285 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 260 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z3 --- 14.1S6 153.6E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 100 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 285 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 260 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 180300Z2 POSITION 11.9S1 155.5E6 TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) IS QUASI-STATIONARY. THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN RELOCATED BASED ON A 20 NM DIAMETER EYE ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.0 (90 KNOTS). WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED SLIGHTLY BASED ON SYNOPTIC SHIP REPORTS. OVERALL FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY REMAINS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS WARNINGS. THE SYSTEM=S MOTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTERWARDS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GAIN LATITUDE AND MOVE SOUTHWARDS AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSIFIES AND A MID-LATITUDE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 25 FEET. REFER TO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS WARNINGS FOR TANDEM THRUST 97 FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180900Z8 (DTG 180753Z4), 181500Z5 (DTG 181353Z1), 182100Z2 (DTG 181953Z7) AND 190300Z3 (DTG 190153Z9).// ========================================================================= WTPS32 PGTW 970318 09:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 050 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 180600Z5 --- 11.9S1 155.3E4 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 00 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 060 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 260 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 11.9S1 155.3E4 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z8 --- 12.0S3 155.3E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 070 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 260 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z6 --- 12.3S6 155.2E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 080 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 285 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 260 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z9 --- 12.7S0 154.8E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 090 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 285 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 260 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z8 --- 13.2S6 154.1E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 095 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 285 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 260 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z9 --- 14.2S7 152.7E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 100 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 285 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 260 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 180900Z8 POSITION 11.9S1 155.3E4 TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) IS QUASI-STATIONARY. THE SYSTEM DISPLAYS A CLOUD-FILLED, 30 NM DIAMETER EYE. WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.0 (90) KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AFTERWARDS THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHWESTWARDS IN RESPONSE TO NORTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN ANTICYCLONE TO THE EAST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE SOUTH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 24 FEET. REFER TO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS WARNINGS FOR TANDEM THRUST EXERCISE 97 FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 181500Z5 (DTG 181353Z1), 182100Z2 (DTG 181953Z7), 190300Z3 (DTG 190153Z9) AND 190900Z9 (DTG 190753Z5).// ========================================================================= WTPS32 PGTW 970318 15:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 051 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 181200Z2 --- 11.9S1 155.1E2 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 060 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 260 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 11.9S1 155.1E2 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z0 --- 12.0S3 154.7E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 070 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 260 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z3 --- 12.2S5 154.3E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 080 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 285 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 260 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z2 --- 12.5S8 154.0E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 090 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 285 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 260 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z5 --- 12.9S2 153.6E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 095 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 285 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 260 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z6 --- 13.5S9 152.7E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 100 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 285 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 260 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 181500Z5 POSITION 11.9S1 155.0E1 TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 181130Z INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. JUSTIN HAS MAINTAINED ABOUT THE SAME INTENSITY DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS AND CURRENTLY POSSESSES A 25 NM CLOUD-FILLED EYE. SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. JUSTIN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE A GENERAL WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT THROUGH 72 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 25 FEET. REFER TO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS WARNINGS FOR TANDEM THRUST EXERCISE 97 FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z2 (DTG 181953Z7), 190300Z3 (DTG 190153Z9), 190900Z9 (DTG 190753Z5) AND 191500Z6 (DTG 191353Z2).// ========================================================================= WTPS32 PGTW 970318 21:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 052 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 181800Z8 --- 12.1S4 154.6E6 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 060 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 260 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 12.1S4 154.6E6 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z6 --- 12.5S8 154.1E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 070 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 260 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z9 --- 12.8S1 153.6E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 080 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 285 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 260 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z8 --- 13.1S5 153.2E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 090 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 285 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 260 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z1 --- 13.5S9 152.7E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 095 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 285 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 260 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z2 --- 14.4S9 151.6E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 100 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 285 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 260 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 182100Z2 POSITION 12.2S5 154.5E5 TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) IS MOVING WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS. WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 181700Z INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON A SATELLITE-DERIVED CURRENT INTENSITY ANALYSIS USING THE SAME SATELLITE IMAGERY. JUSTIN IS STILL FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH 72 HOURS AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AFTER 12 HOURS. THE PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR THE STEERING MECHANISM REMAINS THE SAME AS THAT FOR THE PREVIOUS WARNING EXCEPT THE STEERING FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 26 FEET. REFER TO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS WARNINGS FOR TANDEM THRUST EXERCISE 97 FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190300Z3 (DTG 190153Z9), 190900Z9 (DTG 190753Z5), 191500Z6 (DTG 191353Z2) AND 192100Z3 (DTG 191953Z8).// ========================================================================= WTPS32 PGTW 970319 03:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 053 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 190000Z0 --- 12.3S6 153.4E3 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 070 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 260 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 12.3S6 153.4E3 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z3 --- 12.7S0 151.8E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 070 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 260 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z2 --- 13.4S8 150.4E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 070 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 260 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z5 --- 14.5S0 149.5E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 070 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 250 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z3 --- 15.9S5 149.1E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 070 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 280 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 250 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z4 --- 18.6S5 149.2E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 070 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 280 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 250 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 190300Z3 POSITION 12.4S7 153.0E9 TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) IS MOVING WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT APPROXIMATELY 10 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM HAS LOST ITS EYE, BUT REMAINS AN INTENSE SYSTEM. WARNING INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS, IS BASED ON A CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBER OF 5.0 (90 KNOTS). EXPECT A SLOW WEAKENING TREND AS THE SYSTEM MAY HAVE ALREADY REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY. HOWEVER, SYSTEM MAY REINTENSIFY SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT WILL REMAIN OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND WITHIN A LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. OVERALL TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS THE SAME, EXCEPT THE STEERING FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER. THE SYSTEM=S TRACK IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SOUTHWARD AFTER 36 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE CONTINUES TO BUILD. OUR PRIMARY DYNAMIC OBJECTIVE FORECAST GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 27 FEET. REFER TO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS WARNINGS FOR TANDEM THRUST EXERCISE 97 FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z9 (DTG 190753Z5), 191500Z6 (DTG 191353Z2), 192100Z3 (DTG 191953Z8) AND 200300Z5 (DTG 200153Z1).// ========================================================================= WTPS32 PGTW 970319 09:00z CORRECTED IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 054A CORRECTED 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 190600Z6 --- 12.6S9 153.3E2 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 070 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 260 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 12.6S9 153.3E2 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z9 --- 12.8S1 152.6E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 070 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 260 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z8 --- 12.9S2 151.6E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 070 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 260 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z1 --- 13.5S9 150.5E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 070 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 250 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z9 --- 14.4S9 149.6E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 070 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 280 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 250 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z0 --- 16.0S7 149.0E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 070 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 280 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 250 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 190900Z9 POSITION 12.6S9 153.1E0 TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT APPROXIMATELY 04 KNOTS. THE WARNING INTENSITY OF 85 KNOTS IS BASED ON A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBER OF 5.0 (90 KNOTS), AND A WEAKENING TREND WHICH IS APPARENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS EXPERIENCING WIND SHEAR FROM THE EAST AND DISPLAYS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE IN A GENERAL WESTWARD DIRECTION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DO SO OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AFTERWARDS, A MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK IS EXPECTED DUE TO NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 24 FEET. REFER TO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS WARNINGS FOR TANDEM THRUST EXERCISE 97 FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 191500Z6 (DTG 191353Z2), 192100Z3 (DTG 191953Z8), 200300Z5 (DTG 200153Z1) AND 200900Z1 (DTG 200753Z7). JUSTIFICATION: CORRECTS NUMBER OF ACTIVE STORMS// ========================================================================= WTPS32 PGTW 970319 15:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 055 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 191200Z3 --- 12.9S2 152.9E7 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 070 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 260 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 12.9S2 152.9E7 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z2 --- 13.2S6 152.2E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 065 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 260 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z5 --- 13.6S0 151.4E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 060 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 260 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z3 --- 14.2S7 150.7E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 060 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 250 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z6 --- 14.9S4 149.8E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 060 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 250 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z7 --- 16.4S1 148.6E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 250 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 191500Z6 POSITION 13.0S4 152.7E5 TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 191130Z INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. JUSTIN HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY DUE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME SHEARED 56 NAUTICAL MILES TO THE WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. ACCORDINGLY, JUSTIN IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A GENERAL COURSE TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH 72 HOURS. A MODERATE PROBABILITY ALTERNATE FORECAST SCENARIO HAS JUSTIN BECOMING AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND WEAKENING EVEN MORE RAPIDLY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. JUSTIN WOULD THEN BE GOVERNED BY SHALLOWER STEERING FLOW THAN IS NOW THE CASE. THIS WOULD CAUSE THIS SYSTEM TO STEER MORE TOWARD THE WEST AFTER 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 26 FEET. REFER TO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS WARNINGS FOR TANDEM THRUST EXERCISE 97 FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 192100Z3 (DTG 191953Z8), 200300Z5 (DTG 200153Z1), 200900Z1 (DTG 200753Z7) AND 201500Z8 (DTG 201353Z4).// ========================================================================= WTPS32 PGTW 970319 21:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 056 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 191800Z9 --- 13.4S8 152.3E1 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 070 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 250 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 200 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 13.4S8 152.3E1 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z8 --- 14.0S5 151.5E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 060 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 240 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 190 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z1 --- 14.6S1 150.7E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 055 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 230 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 180 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z9 --- 15.2S8 149.9E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 220 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 170 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z2 --- 15.9S5 149.3E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 220 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 170 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z3 --- 17.2S0 148.0E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 220 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 170 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 192100Z3 POSITION 13.6S0 152.1E9 TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 191730Z INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. CURRENT WIND RADII TO THE NORTH, EAST, AND SOUTH ARE BASED ON 191236Z SATELLITE SCATTEROMETRY DATA. CURRENT WIND RADII IN THE WEST QUADRANT ARE BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION OF THE SCATTEROMETRY DATA. JUSTIN HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN. DEEP CONVECTION IS NOW SHEARED 186 NM WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING DUE TO MAINTAINED STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM THE EAST. JUSTIN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHWEST THROUGH 72 HOURS AS IT IS STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHEAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 20 FEET. REFER TO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS WARNINGS FOR TANDEM THRUST EXERCISE 97 FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200300Z5 (DTG 200153Z1), 200900Z1 (DTG 200753Z7), 201500Z8 (DTG 201353Z4) AND 202100Z5 (DTG 201953Z0).// ========================================================================= WTPS32 PGTW 970320 03:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 057 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHEASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 200000Z2 --- 14.1S6 151.4E1 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 070 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 250 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 200 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 14.1S6 151.4E1 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z5 --- 15.2S8 150.1E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 240 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 190 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z3 --- 16.1S8 149.2E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 230 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 180 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z6 --- 16.9S6 148.5E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 220 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 170 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z4 --- 17.4S2 148.1E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 220 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 170 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z5 --- 17.9S7 147.7E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 220 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 170 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 200300Z5 POSITION 14.4S9 151.1E8 TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) IS TRACKING SOUTHWEST AT 09 KNOTS IN THE CORAL SEA. CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON A 202330Z0 SATELLITE INTENSITY ANALYSIS OF 55 KNOTS (DVORAK CI3.5). TC 32P IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD COURSE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AND BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A MEDIUM PROBABILITY ALTERNATE SCENARIO IS THAT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS STRONG AND TC 32P MOVES ON A MORE WESTWARD COURSE THAN FORECAST. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND WATER VAPOR DERIVED UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SHOW THAT TC 32P IS STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SIGNIFICANT UPPER-LEVEL EAST-NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR TC 32P TO WEAKEN TO A 45 KNOT SYSTEM BY THE 24-HOUR POINT AN REMAIN STEADY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT AS TC 32P MOVES SOUTHWESTWARD AND UNDER THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND INTO AN AREA OF LOWER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THAT TC 32P WILL REINTENSIFY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 18 FEET. REFER TO HIGH WIND AND SEAS WARNINGS FOR TANDEM THRUST EXERCISE 97 FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z1 (DTG 200753Z7), 201500Z8 (DTG 201353Z4), 202100Z5 (DTG 201953Z0) AND 210300Z6 (DTG 210153Z2).// ========================================================================= WTPS32 PGTW 970320 09:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 058 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 200600Z8 --- 14.7S2 150.8E4 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 045 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 150 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 14.7S2 150.8E4 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z1 --- 15.7S3 149.7E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 150 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z9 --- 16.6S3 148.8E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 130 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z2 --- 17.2S0 148.2E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 120 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z0 --- 17.7S5 147.6E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z1 --- 18.3S2 146.6E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT --- REMARKS: 200900Z1 POSITION 15.0S6 150.5E1 TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) IS MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 08 KNOTS TOWARDS THE AUSTRALIAN COAST. TC 32P IS NOW AN EXTREMELY WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER THAT HAS LOST ALMOST ALL OF ITS DEEP CONVECTION. THERE IS STILL HEAVY EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ON THIS SYSTEM AS SHOWN BY ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND WATER VAPOR DERIVED WINDS. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON SURROUNDING SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS AND A 200002Z4 SCATTEROMETRY PASS FROM THE NEW NASA SCATTEROMETER. WE EXPECT TC 32P TO CONTINUE ITS SOUTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS AND TO WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. A LOW-PROBABILITY ALTERNATE INTENSITY SCENARIO HAS THE UPPER-LEVEL WIND SHEAR RELAXING ON TC 32P AND THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN INTENSITY LONGER THAN FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z8 IS 18 FEET. REFER TO HIGH WIND AND SEA WARNINGS FOR TANDEM THRUST EXERCISE 97 FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 201500Z8 (DTG 201353Z4), 202100Z5 (DTG 201953Z0), 210300Z6 (DTG 210153Z2) AND 210900Z2 (DTG 210753Z8).// ========================================================================= WTPS32 PGTW 970320 15:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 059 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHWEST PACIFIC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 201200Z5 --- 15.0S6 149.9E3 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 150 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 15.0S6 149.9E3 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z3 --- 16.0S7 148.2E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 130 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z6 --- 17.0S8 146.6E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 120 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z4 --- 17.5S3 145.7E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z7 --- 17.9S7 144.9E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 201500Z8 POSITION 15.3S9 149.5E9 TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) IS MOVING WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 9 KNOTS. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER CONTINUES TO BE WELL DEFINED. THE SYSTEM HAS VERY LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION AND IS WEAKENING DUE TO STRONG EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. WIND RADII BASED ON SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS AND A 200002Z4 NASA SCATTEROMETER PASS. TC 32P WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEAKEN, MAKING LANDFALL IN NORTHEASTERN AUSTRALIA WITHIN 36 HOURS. TC 32P IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER LAND IN 48 HOURS. TC 32P IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY A DOMINANT RIDGE TO THE SOUTH, AND IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AS IT NEARS LANDFALL DUE TO AN APPROACHING WEAK AREA. A LOW- PROBABILITY ALTERNATE INTENSITY SCENARIO HAS THE UPPER- LEVEL SHEAR RELAXING ON TC 32P, RESULTING IN THE SYSTEM MAINTAINING A HIGHER INTENSITY THAN FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z5 IS 18 FEET. REFER TO HIGH WIND AND SEA WARNINGS FOR TANDEM THRUST EXERCISE 97 FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 202100Z5 (DTG 201953Z0),210300Z6 (DTG 210153Z2), 210900Z2 (DTG 210753Z8) AND 211500Z9 (DTG 211353Z5).// ========================================================================= WTPS32 PGTW 970320 21:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 060 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHWEST PACIFIC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 201800Z1 --- 15.3S9 149.1E5 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 150 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S9 149.1E5 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z9 --- 16.3S0 147.6E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 130 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z2 --- 17.1S9 146.2E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 120 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z0 --- 17.5S3 145.4E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z3 --- 18.2S1 145.1E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 202100Z5 POSITION 15.5S1 148.7E0 TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) IS MOVING WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 9 KNOTS. POSITION BASED ON SATELLITE FIXES ON A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER AND A 1200Z NASA SCATTEROMETER PASS. CONVECTION ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED IN THE LAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WEAKEN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM THE EAST. TC 32P IS BEING STEERED BY A DOMINANT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN NORTHEASTERN AUSTRALIA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. A LOW TO MODERATE PROBABILITY ALTERNATE SCENARIO HAS THE SYSTEM TURNING SOUTHWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN APPROACHING MID LATITUDE TROUGH AND REINTENSIFYING AS IT MOVES UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS 18 FEET. REFER TO HIGH WIND AND SEA WARNINGS FOR TANDEM THRUST EXERCISE 97 FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210300Z6 (DTG 210153Z2), 210900Z2 (DTG 210753Z8), 211500Z9 (DTG 211353Z5) AND 212100Z6 (DTG 211953Z1).// ========================================================================= WTPS32 PGTW 970321 03:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 061 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 210000Z3 --- 15.4S0 148.3E6 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 150 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 15.4S0 148.3E6 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z6 --- 15.7S3 146.9E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 130 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z4 --- 16.3S0 145.6E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z7 --- 17.0S8 144.6E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 210300Z6 POSITION 15.5S1 147.9E1 TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) IS MOVING WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS TOWARDS THE AUSTRALIAN COAST. THERE IS CURRENTLY HEAVY CONVECTION IN THE NORTHWEST OUTER BAND OF THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE BUT NO SERIOUS CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER. IT APPEARS THAT TC 32P WILL REMAIN ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. WE EXPECT TC 32P TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST AND TO DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z3 IS 18 FEET. REFER TO HIGH WIND AND SEAS WARNINGS FOR TANDEM THRUST EXERCISE 97 FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210900Z2 (DTG 200753Z8), 201500Z9 (DTG 211353Z5) 212100Z (DTG 211953Z1), AND 220300Z7 (DTG 220153Z3).// ========================================================================= WTPS32 PGTW 970321 09:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 062 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 210600Z9 --- 15.5S1 147.8E0 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 150 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S1 147.8E0 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z2 --- 15.8S4 146.9E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 130 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z0 --- 16.6S3 146.0E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z3 --- 17.5S3 145.2E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 210900Z2 POSITION 15.6S2 147.6E8 TC 32P (JUSTIN) IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS TOWARDS THE AUSTRALIAN COAST. CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED IN PART ON A 210530Z1 SATELLITE INTENSITY ANALYSIS SHOWING 45 KNOTS (DVORAK T2.5/3.0) AND PREVIOUS SCATTEROMETRY DATA. OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS THE SYSTEM HAS INCREASED IN ORGANIZATION AS CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREVIOUSLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BEGUN TO INCREASE. THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR TC 32P TO CONTINUE ON A SOUTHWESTWARD COURSE, MAKE LANDFALL IN ABOUT 24 HOURS, AND TO DISSIPATE OVER LAND. MOST OF OUR DYNAMIC GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO. WE EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN AS IT BEGINS INTERACT WITH LAND AND BEGINS TO ENTRAIN DRY AIR FROM THE AUSTRALIAN CONTINENT. HOWEVER, THE REDUCTION IN UPPER-LEVEL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 KNOTS VS. YESTERDAY=S 40 KNOTS) AS TC 32P GETS CLOSER TO THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, THE WEAKNESS IN THE LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (CAUSED BY THE FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE CONTINENT), AND THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTING THIS FRONT BECOMING MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, HAS LED US TO A LOW-PROBABILITY ALTERNATE SCENARIO. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT TC 32P DOES NOT WEAKEN AS FORECAST AND TAKES A MORE SOUTHERLY TURN ALONG THE AUSTRALIAN COASTLINE. THIS TRACK IS SUPPORTED BY CLIMATOLOGY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z9 IS 18 FEET. REFER TO HIGH WIND AND SEA WARNINGS FOR TANDEM THRUST EXERCISE 97 FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 211500Z9 (DTG 211353Z5), 212100Z6 (DTG 211953Z1), 220300Z7 (DTG 220153Z3) AND 220900Z3 (DTG 220753Z9).// ========================================================================= WTPS32 PGTW 970321 15:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 063 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHWEST PACIFIC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 211200Z6 --- 15.6S2 147.5E7 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 150 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S2 147.5E7 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z4 --- 16.0S7 147.1E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 150 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z7 --- 16.5S2 146.8E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 150 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z5 --- 17.0S8 146.6E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 150 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z8 --- 17.5S3 146.3E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 150 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z9 --- 18.5S4 146.4E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 150 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 211500Z9 POSITION 15.7S3 147.4E6 TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) IS MOVING WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 3 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM HAS ENTERED AN AREA OF WEAK STEERING FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS BREAK IS AT THE TRAILING END OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WHICH IS ATTEMPTING TO ADVECT THE CYCLONE SOUTHWARD, CORRESPONDING TO AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO DISCUSSED IN PREVIOUS WARNINGS. ALL DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS NOW SUPPORTING SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT THROUGH THE SURFACE RIDGE. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P HAS MOVED UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, RESULTING IN A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SYSTEM IS NO LONGER FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER, HOWEVER INTERACTION WITH LAND SHOULD INHIBIT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DESPITE LOWER VERTICAL SHEAR AND WARMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. INFARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS, RESULTING IN HIGHER DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES BY ALL SATELLITE FIXING SITES. WE DO NOT BELIEVE THAT THIS CORRESPONDS TO AN ACTUAL INCREASE IN INTENSITY, BECAUSE WE HAVE BEEN HOLDING THE WARNING INTENSITY HIGHER THAN THE DVORAK ANALYSIS DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS DUE TO THE TIGHTLY WRAPPED NATURE OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. A LOW PROBABILITY ALTERNATE SCENARIO HAS THE CYCLONE CONTINUING WESTWARD PAST THE BREAK IN THE RIDGE AND DISSIPATING OVER LAND AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 18 FEET. REFER TO HIGH WIND AND SEA WARNINGS FOR TANDEM THRUST EXERCISE 97 FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z6 (DTG 211953Z1), 220300Z7 (DTG 220153Z3), 220900Z3 (DTG 220753Z9) AND 221500Z0 (DTG 221353Z6).// ========================================================================= WTPS32 PGTW 970321 21:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 064 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHWEST PACIFIC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 211800Z2 --- 16.2S9 147.0E2 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 150 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S9 147.0E2 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z0 --- 17.1S9 146.5E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 150 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z3 --- 18.0S9 146.3E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM OVER WATER RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 200 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 160 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z1 --- 18.9S8 146.4E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM OVER WATER RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 200 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 160 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z4 --- 19.8S8 146.6E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 150 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z5 --- 20.8S0 147.6E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 212100Z6 POSITION 16.4S1 146.9E0 TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 5 KNOTS. POSITION BASED ON A BLEND OF SATELLITE, RADAR, AND SYNOPTIC DATA. THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO TURN SOUTHWARD AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, AND IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE THROUGH A WEAK AREA IN THE RIDGE. SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST DUE TO THE CYCLONE ENTERING WARMER WATER AND AN AREA OF WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR. HOWEVER, INTERACTION WITH LAND WILL INHIBIT MORE SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN DISSIPATING OVER LAND WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A LOW TO MODERATE PROBABILITY ALTERNATE SCENARIO IS FOR THE CYCLONE TO RECURVE MORE SHARPLY THAN FORECAST, RESULTING IN CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION OVER WATER. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 18 FEET. REFER TO HIGH WIND AND SEA WARNINGS FOR TANDEM THRUST EXERCISE 97 FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220300Z7 (DTG 220153Z3), 220900Z3 (DTG 220753Z9), 221500Z0 (DTG 221353Z6) AND 222100Z7 (DTG 221953Z2).// ========================================================================= WTPS32 PGTW 970322 03:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 065 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 220000Z4 --- 16.8S5 146.0E1 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM OVER WATER RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 170 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 125 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 16.8S5 146.0E1 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z7 --- 17.7S5 145.1E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 170 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 120 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z5 --- 18.6S5 144.9E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 170 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 120 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z8 --- 19.6S6 145.2E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z6 --- 21.0S3 146.2E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT --- REMARKS: 220300Z7 POSITION 17.0S8 145.8E8 TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON SYNOPTIC DATA FROM CAIRNS (WMO 94287) AND GREEN ISL (WMO 95289) AS WELL AS SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM 212330Z. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON A DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) AND SYNOPTIC REPORTS FROM GREEN ISL. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT MAKES LANDFALL OVER THE AUSTRALIAN COAST. AFTERWARDS, A WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH THE GREGORY RANGE AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVERLAND. A SOUTHWARD TRACK AFTER 12 HOURS IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS; HOWEVER, SHOULD THE SYSTEM WEAKEN MUCH MORE RAPIDLY THAN ANTICIPATED, THEN WESTWARD MOVEMENT FOLLOWING THE SHALLOW LAYER FLOW IS POSSIBLE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 18 FEET. REFER TO HIGH SEAS AND WINDS WARNINGS FOR TANDEM THRUST EXERCISE 97 FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220900Z3 (DTG 220753Z9), 221500Z0 (DTG 221353Z6), 222100Z7 (DTG 221953Z2) AND 230300Z8 (DTG 230153Z4).// ========================================================================= WTPS32 PGTW 970322 09:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 066 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 220600Z0 --- 17.0S8 145.3E3 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 100 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S8 145.3E3 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z3 --- 17.7S5 144.0E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 100 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z1 --- 18.8S7 143.4E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z4 --- 20.0S2 143.4E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 220900Z3 POSITION 17.2S0 145.0E0 TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) IS MOVING WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER AUSTRALIA. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON A DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) AND A WEAKENING TREND FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE ON THE LEEWARD SIDE OF THE GREGORY RANGE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 17 FEET. REFER TO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS WARNINGS FOR TANDEM THRUST EXERCISE 97 FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221500Z0 (DTG 221353Z6), 222100Z7 (DTG 221953Z2), 230300Z8 (DTG 230153Z4) AND 230900Z4 (DTG 230753Z0).// ========================================================================= WTPS32 PGTW 970322 15:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 067 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 221200Z7 --- 17.1S9 144.9E8 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 100 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S9 144.9E8 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z5 --- 17.8S6 144.2E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 070 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z8 --- 18.9S8 143.9E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z6 --- 20.3S5 144.2E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 221500Z0 POSITION 17.3S1 144.7E6 TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) IS MOVING WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 221130Z INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 221140Z RADAR REPORT FROM CAIRNS (WMO 94287). THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF A SATELLITE-DERIVED CURRENT INTENSITY ANALYSIS USING THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE SYNOPTIC REPORTS FROM GREEN ISLAND (WMO 95289) AND LOW ISLES (WMO 94285). JUSTIN HAS CONTINUED MOVING INLAND AND WEAKENING. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER OVER WATER. THE 35 KNOT WIND RADIUS IS CONFIRMED USING A 221200Z 37 KNOT WIND REPORT FROM GREEN ISLAND (WMO 95289). TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P HAS SLOWED ITS FORWARD MOTION AND IS EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTH INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE INDUCED BY A MID-LATITUDE SYSTEM PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH. JUSTIN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DISSIPATING AND BECOME DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND WITHIN 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 16 FEET. REFER TO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS WARNINGS FOR TANDEM THRUST EXERCISE 97 FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 222100Z7 (DTG 221953Z2), 230300Z8 (DTG 230153Z4), 230900Z4 (DTG 230753Z0) AND 231500Z1 (DTG 231353Z7).// ========================================================================= WTPS32 PGTW 970322 21:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 068 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 221800Z3 --- 17.5S3 144.7E6 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 060 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S3 144.7E6 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z1 --- 18.4S3 144.3E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z4 --- 19.5S5 144.4E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 222100Z7 POSITION 17.7S5 144.6E TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) IS MOVING SOUTH- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS. WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 221730Z INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 221800Z RADAR DATA. WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON A COMBINATION OF A SATELLITE-DERIVED CURRENT INTENSITY ANALYSIS USING THE SAME SATELLITE IMAGERY ABOVE AND SURFACE WIND REPORTS FROM GREEN ISLAND (WMO 95289). THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE WELL TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER OVER WATER. JUSTIN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING GENERALLY TO THE SOUTH AND WEAKEN. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND WITHIN 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 15 FEET. REFER TO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS WARNINGS FOR TANDEM THRUST EXERCISE 97 FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230300Z8 (DTG 230153Z4), 230900Z4 (DTG 230753Z0) AND 231500Z1 (DTG 231353Z7).// ========================================================================= WTPS32 PGTW 970323 03:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 069 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 230000Z5 --- 17.8S6 144.8E7 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 045 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S6 144.8E7 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z8 --- 18.5S4 144.9E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 045 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z6 --- 19.1S1 145.0E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 040 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z9 --- 19.8S8 145.1E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 230300Z8 POSITION 18.0S9 144.8E7 TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) IS MOVING SOUTH- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE GREGORY RANGE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE IN A GENERALLY SOUTHWARD DIRECTION AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN. A 40 KNOT INTENSITY, HOWEVER, HAS BEEN MAINTAINED THROUGH 24 HOURS AS GALES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 12 FEET. REFER TO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS WARNINGS FOR TANDEM THRUST EXERCISE 97 FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230900Z4 (DTG 230753Z0), 231500Z1 (DTG 231353Z7), 232100Z8 (DTG 231953Z3) AND 240300Z9 (DTG 240153Z5).// ========================================================================= WTPS32 PGTW 970323 09:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 070 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 230600Z1 --- 18.3S2 145.3E3 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 045 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 18.3S2 145.3E3 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z4 --- 19.0S0 146.2E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 045 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z2 --- 19.8S8 147.2E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 040 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z5 --- 20.5S7 148.4E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z3 --- 21.5S8 150.3E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 090 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z4 --- 23.1S6 154.6E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 090 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 230900Z4 POSITION 18.5S4 145.5E5 TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON SYNOPTIC DATA FROM CARDWELL (WMO 94292), SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 230530Z, AND RADAR DATA FROM TOWNSVILLE (WMO 94294). THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS IT REMAINS OVERLAND. BY 48 HOURS, THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER WATER AND REINTENSIFY ONLY SLIGHTLY AS IT WILL BE MOVING INTO A STRONGER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 12 FEET. REFER TO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS WARNINGS FOR TANDEM THRUST EXERCISE 97 FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 231500Z1 (DTG 231353Z7), 232100Z8 (DTG 231953Z3), 240300Z9 (DTG 240153Z5) AND 240900Z5 (DTG 240753Z1).// ========================================================================= WTPS32 PGTW 970323 15:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 071 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 231200Z8 --- 18.7S6 146.3E4 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 040 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 18.7S6 146.3E4 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z6 --- 19.3S3 148.0E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 030 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 045 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z9 --- 20.0S2 149.7E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 035 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 060 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z7 --- 20.7S9 151.5E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 085 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z0 --- 21.5S8 153.6E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 090 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z1 --- 22.6S0 158.2E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 090 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 231500Z1 POSITION 18.8S7 146.7E8 TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 231100Z SURFACE SYNOPTIC REPORTS FROM CARDWELL (WMO 94292) AND LUCINDA POINT (WMO 94295), SUPPLEMENTED BY A 231200Z RADAR REPORT FROM TOWNSVILLE (WMO 94294) AND A 231130Z SATELLITE FIX USING INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON A SATELLITE- DERIVED CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE USING THE SAME SATELLITE IMAGERY. JUSTIN HAS INCREASED ITS FORWARD SPEED AND HAS REEMERGED OVER WATER NEAR INGHAM. THIS, AND CONTINUED FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS LED TO AN INCREASE IN FORECAST INTENSITY FOR JUSTIN DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. AFTER 36 HOURS, JUSTIN IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS STRONGER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GENERAL MOTION TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P IS STEERED TO THE EAST BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES TO THE SOUTH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 17 FEET. REFER TO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS WARNINGS FOR TANDEM THRUST EXERCISE 97 FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z8 (DTG 231953Z3), 240300Z9 (DTG 240153Z5), 240900Z5 (DTG 240753Z1) AND 241500Z2 (DTG 241353Z8).// ========================================================================= WTPS32 PGTW 970323 21:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 072 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 231800Z4 --- 18.9S8 146.9E0 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 035 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S8 146.9E0 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z2 --- 19.4S4 148.5E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 040 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z5 --- 20.0S2 150.3E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 030 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 055 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z3 --- 20.6S8 152.2E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 080 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z6 --- 21.3S6 154.3E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 085 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z7 --- 22.6S0 158.5E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 085 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 232100Z8 POSITION 19.0S0 147.3E5 TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) IS MOVING EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON A 231700Z SURFACE SYNOPTIC REPORT FROM TOWNSVILLE (WMO 94294), AS WELL AS A 231820Z RADAR REPORT FROM TOWNSVILLE AND 231730Z INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON A SATELLITE-DERIVED CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE (DVORAK 3.0). JUSTIN IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY THROUGH 24 HOURS, THEN WEAKEN. EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 14 FEET. REFER TO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS WARNINGS FOR TANDEM THRUST EXERCISE 97 FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z9 (DTG 240153Z5), 240900Z5 (DTG 240753Z1), 241500Z2 (DTG 241353Z8) AND 242100Z9 (DTG 241953Z4).// ========================================================================= WTPS32 PGTW 970324 03:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 073 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 240000Z6 --- 19.5S5 147.9E1 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 035 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 19.5S5 147.9E1 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z9 --- 20.1S3 149.2E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 040 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z7 --- 20.7S9 150.3E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 050 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z0 --- 21.3S6 151.2E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z8 --- 21.9S2 152.0E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 240300Z9 POSITION 19.7S7 148.2E5 TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) IS MOVING EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD AT APPROXIMATELY 09 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM=S INTENSITY IS BASED ON A 232330Z DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBER 3.0 (45 KNOTS). VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS SHEARING DUE TO STRONG UPPER- LEVEL NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AHEAD OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AS AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER EASTWARD. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE BY 48 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO A VERY STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 14 FEET. REFER TO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS WARNINGS FOR TANDEM THRUST EXERCISE 97 FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z5 (DTG 240753Z1), 241500Z2 (DTG 241353Z8), 242100Z9 (DTG 241953Z4) AND 250300Z0 (DTG 250153Z6).// ========================================================================= WTPS32 PGTW 970324 09:00z CORRECTED IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 074A CORRECTED 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 240600Z2 --- 19.7S7 148.7E0 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 035 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 19.7S7 148.7E0 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z5 --- 20.5S7 150.4E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 040 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z3 --- 21.5S8 152.1E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 060 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z6 --- 22.5S9 153.5E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z4 --- 23.4S9 154.4E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WATER --- REMARKS: 240900Z5 POSITION 19.9S9 149.1E5 TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) IS MOVING EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON SYNOPTIC DATA AT 05Z FROM BOWEN (WMO 94366) AND HOOK REEF. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON A SATELLITE-BASED DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBER OF 3.0 (45 KNOTS). NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE FORECAST REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOW ITS FORWARD MOTION AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AHEAD OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 36 HOURS AS IT MOVES INTO A STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 15 FEET. REFER TO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS WARNINGS FOR TANDEM THRUST EXERCISE 97 FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 241500Z2 (DTG 241353Z8), 242100Z9 (DTG 241953Z4), 250300Z0 (DTG 250153Z6) AND 250900Z6 (DTG 250753Z2). JUSTIFICATION: ADDED COMMENT TO THE 48 HOUR POSIT, DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER.// ========================================================================= WTPS32 PGTW 970324 15:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 075 RELOCATED 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 241200Z9 --- 20.0S2 149.0E4 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 20.0S2 149.0E4 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z7 --- 20.6S8 150.2E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z0 --- 21.5S8 151.8E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 241500Z2 POSITION 20.2S4 149.3E7 TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) IS MOVING EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS. THIS WARNING IS RELOCATED BASED ON SURFACE SYNOPTIC REPORTS FROM HOOK REEF AND HAMILTON ISLAND (WMO 94368). THE WARNING INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON A SATELLITE-DERIVED CURRENT INTENSITY ANALYSIS USING 241130Z INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN A GENERAL MOTION TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. IT WILL REMAIN IN STEERING FLOW BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST AND WESTERLIES TO THE SOUTH. JUSTIN HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY. THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME SHEARED 60 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THIS WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DUE TO PERSISTENT STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER WITHIN 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 14 FEET. REFER TO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS WARNINGS FOR TANDEM THRUST EXERCISE 97 FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z9 (DTG 241953Z4), 250300Z0 (DTG 250153Z6) AND 250900Z6 (DTG 250753Z2).// ========================================================================= WTPS32 PGTW 970324 21:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 076 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 241800Z5 --- 20.6S8 150.1E7 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 20.6S8 150.1E7 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z3 --- 21.5S8 151.9E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 18 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 18 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z0 --- 21.9S2 152.8E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 242100Z9 POSITION 20.8S0 150.5E1 TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) IS MOVING EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 241730Z INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS SURFACE SYNOPTIC REPORTS FROM CREAL REEF (WMO 94371) AND MACKAY (WMO 94367). THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON A SATELLITE-DERIVED CURRENT INTENSITY ANALYSIS USING THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SATELLITE IMAGERY. JUSTIN CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER WITHIN 18 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 11 FEET. REFER TO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS WARNINGS FOR TANDEM THRUST EXERCISE 97 FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250300Z0 (DTG 250153Z6) AND 250900Z6 (DTG 250753Z2).// ========================================================================= WTPS32 PGTW 970325 03:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) WARNING NR 077 RELOCATED 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 250000Z7 --- 20.7S9 150.4E0 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 20.7S9 150.4E0 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z0 --- 21.5S8 151.8E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 250300Z0 POSITION 20.9S1 150.8E4 TROPICAL CYCLONE 32P (JUSTIN) IS MOVING EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 8 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED RAPIDLY DUE TO INTENSE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND SHEAR WHICH HAS SEPARATED THE DEEP CONVECTION FROM THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER BY OVER 100 NM. THE REMNANTS OF TC 32P ARE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. WARNING HAS BEEN RELOCATED TO REFLECT SLOWER ALONG TRACK PROGRESS THAN INDICATED BY FIXES TAKEN DURING THE NIGHT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z IS 10 FEET. REFER TO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS WARNINGS FOR TANDEM THRUST EXERCISE 97 FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
Document: justin.htm
Updated: 26th December 2006 |
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