Tropical
Cyclones
[Index] |
Tropical Cyclone JUNE [Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere] |
WTPS21 PGTW 970502 04:00z CORRECTED SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 020351Z MAY 97 CORRECTED// RMKS/ 1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA 2. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY AND AMEMBASSY HONIARA SOLOMON ISLANDS 3. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.6S8 171.5E4 TO 17.8S6 172.8E8 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 012330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.5S8 171.7E6. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS. 4. REMARKS: THIS SYSTEM IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM THE NORTHWEST, WHICH HAS SLOWED DEVELOPMENT. THIS SHEAR HAS LESSENED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS BASED ON A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE ANALYSIS (DVORAK T1.0) AND CLOUD DRIFT DERIVED WINDS. 5. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 030400Z8. CORRECTION ISSUED TO CORRECT BULLETIN HEADER.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 970502 09:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU 020351Z MAY 97 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 020400 ) 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 35P WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 020600Z8 --- 12.3S6 171.7E6 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 12.3S6 171.7E6 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z1 --- 13.5S9 171.9E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z9 --- 14.7S2 171.5E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 035 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z2 --- 15.5S1 170.7E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z0 --- 16.3S0 169.2E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 020900Z1 POSITION 12.6S9 171.7E6 TROPICAL CYCLONE 35P IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 6 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AS IT FOLLOWS THE DOMINANT RIDGE EASTERLY STEERING PATTERN. TROPICAL CYCLONE 35P SHOULD INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY BEFORE WEAKENING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS IT MOVES INTO AN AREA OF INTENSE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z8 IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 022100Z5 (DTG 021951Z8) AND 030900Z2 (DTG 030751Z6). THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU 020351Z MAY 97 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 020400 )// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 970502 21:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 35P WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 021800Z1 --- 13.3S7 173.0E1 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 055 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 13.3S7 173.0E1 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z9 --- 14.3S8 173.3E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 025 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 070 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z2 --- 15.4S0 173.2E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 025 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 070 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z0 --- 16.9S6 172.8E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 060 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z3 --- 18.4S3 171.5E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT --- REMARKS: 022100Z5 POSITION 13.6S0 173.1E2 TROPICAL CYCLONE 35P IS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 05 KNOTS. CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON A 021730Z3 SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 45 KNOTS (DVORAK T3.0). WE EXPECT TC 35P TO INTENSIFY TO 55 KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT TWELVE HOURS BEFORE BEGINNING A WEAKENING TREND AS IT BEGINS TO GET SHEARED BY THE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES. MOVEMENT IS CURRENTLY SLOW DUE TO THE EQUATORIAL WESTERLY WIND BURST FEEDING INTO TC 35P AS WELL AS THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR 40S4 170E8. AS THIS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARDS THE EAST, WE EXPECT TC 35P TO MOVE TOWARDS THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE TOWARDS A BREAK INDICATED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. ALL OF OUR DYNAMIC GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO WHILE CLIMATOLOGY WOULD TAKE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z1 IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z2 (DTG 030751Z6) AND 032100Z6 (DTG 031951Z9).// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 970503 09:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 35P (JUNE) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 030600Z9 --- 14.0S5 175.6E9 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 240 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 120 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 14.0S5 175.6E9 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z2 --- 14.8S3 177.1E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 025 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 240 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 120 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z0 --- 15.7S3 178.5E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 030 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 240 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 120 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z3 --- 16.8S5 179.6E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 240 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 120 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z1 --- 18.2S1 179.6W3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 230 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 125 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 030900Z2 POSITION 14.2S7 176.0E4 TROPICAL CYCLONE 35P (JUNE) IS TRACKING EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE SOUTHWEST PACIFIC BASIN. THE SYSTEM HAS IMPROVED ITS CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS. WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON A COMBINATION OF SYNOPTIC DATA AND 021130Z7 SCATTEROMETER DATA. TC 35P (JUNE) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE 24-HOUR FORECAST POSITION. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BEGIN WEAKENING AFTER THE 24-HOUR FORECAST POSITION AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER INCREASED UPPER-LEVEL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z9 IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z6 (DTG 031951Z9) AND 040900Z3 (DTG 040751Z7).// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 970503 15:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 35P (JUNE) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 031200Z6 --- 14.3S8 176.0E4 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 200 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 120 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S8 176.0E4 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z4 --- 15.0S6 176.7E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 025 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 200 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 120 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z7 --- 15.8S4 177.4E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 025 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 210 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 120 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z5 --- 16.6S3 178.0E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 210 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 120 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z8 --- 17.6S4 178.5E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 205 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 120 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z9 --- 19.2S2 179.2E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 205 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 120 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 031500Z9 POSITION 14.5S0 176.2E6 TROPICAL CYCLONE 35P (JUNE) IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 5 KNOTS. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. THE CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON SYNOPTIC DATA AND THE PREVIOUS WARNING WHICH USED SCATTEROMETER DATA. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GAIN LATITUDE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS ALSO EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THEN WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO A STRONGER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED EVERY SIX HOURS UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z6 (DTG 031951Z9), 040300Z7 (DTG 040151Z1), 040900Z3 (DTG 040751Z7) AND 041500Z0 (DTG 041351Z4).// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 970503 21:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADISOR 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 35P (JUNE) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 031800Z2 --- 15.1S7 176.0E4 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 025 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 200 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 120 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 15.1S7 176.0E4 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z0 --- 16.2S9 176.4E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 025 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 200 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 120 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z3 --- 17.3S1 176.8E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 025 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 210 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 120 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z1 --- 18.3S2 177.2E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 210 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 120 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z4 --- 19.0S0 177.4E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 205 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 120 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z5 --- 19.9S9 177.6E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 032100Z6 POSITION 15.4S0 176.1E5 TROPICAL CYCLONE 35P (JUNE) IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON A BLEND OF SYNOPTIC DATA AND 031735Z SATELLITE-BASED MICROWAVE (SSM/I) DATA ANALYSIS. THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO GAIN LATITUDE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOW BY 48 HOURS AND WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO A STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 31800Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040300Z7 (DTG 040151Z1), 040900Z3 (DTG 040751Z7), 041500Z0 (DTG 041351Z4) AND 042100Z7 (DTG 041951Z0).// ========================================================================= warning 006 not available ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 970504 09:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 35P (JUNE) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 040600Z0 --- 16.2S9 176.9E3 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 025 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 200 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 120 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S9 176.9E3 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z3 --- 17.5S3 177.8E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 025 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 200 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 120 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z1 --- 18.9S8 178.2E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 210 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 120 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z4 --- 19.9S9 178.5E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 210 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 120 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z2 --- 20.9S1 178.7E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 205 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 120 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z3 --- 22.7S1 179.4E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 040900Z3 POSITION 16.5S2 177.1E6 TROPICAL CYCLONE 35P (JUNE) IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED ITS INTENSITY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 35P (JUNE) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO EXPERIENCE SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BETWEEN THE 48- AND THE 72-HOUR FORECAST POSITION CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z0 IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 041500Z0 (DTG 041351Z4), 042100Z7 (DTG 041951Z0), 050300Z8 (DTG 050151Z2) AND 050900Z4 (DTG 050751Z8).// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 970504 15:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 35P (JUNE) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 041200Z7 --- 16.4S1 177.5E0 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 025 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 200 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 120 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 16.4S1 177.5E0 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z5 --- 17.1S9 178.4E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 025 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 200 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 120 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z8 --- 18.0S9 179.1E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 210 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 120 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z6 --- 18.8S7 179.5E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 210 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 120 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z9 --- 19.7S7 179.7E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z0 --- 21.1S4 178.9E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 041500Z0 POSITION 16.6S3 177.7E2 TROPICAL CYCLONE 35P (JUNE) IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 8 KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA FROM YASAWA (WMO 91660). INFRARED SATELLITE AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS SHEARING DUE TO STRONG UPPER- LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A WEAKENING TREND AS IT GAINS LATITUDE AND REMAINS IN A STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. AFTER 48 HOURS, TC 35P (JUNE) IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TO TRACK WESTWARD AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES INFLUENCED BY THE MID AND SHALLOW LAYER EASTERLY STEERING FLOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 042100Z7 (DTG 041951Z0), 050300Z8 (DTG 050151Z2), 050900Z4 (DTG 050751Z8) AND 051500Z1 (DTG 051351Z5).// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 970504 21:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 35P (JUNE) WARNING NR 009 RELOCATED 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 041800Z3 --- 16.4S1 177.0E5 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 200 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 120 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 16.4S1 177.0E5 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z1 --- 16.9S6 177.1E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 200 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 120 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z4 --- 17.7S5 177.2E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 200 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 120 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z2 --- 18.7S6 177.0E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z5 --- 20.0S2 176.3E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 042100Z7 POSITION 16.5S2 177.0E5 TROPICAL CYCLONE 35P (JUNE) IS MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS. THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS SIGNIFICANTLY SHEARED AND NOW DISPLAYS AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THEREFORE, THIS IS A RELOCATED WARNING. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD, THEN MOVE WESTWARD FOLLOWING THE SHALLOW LAYER EASTERLY STEERING FLOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050300Z8 (DTG 050151Z2), 050900Z4 (DTG 050751Z8), 051500Z1 (DTG 051351Z5) AND 052100Z8 (DTG 051951Z1).// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 970505 03:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 35P (JUNE) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 050000Z5 --- 16.8S5 176.8E2 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 110 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 16.8S5 176.8E2 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z8 --- 17.4S2 176.3E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z6 --- 18.0S9 175.4E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z9 --- 18.6S5 174.0E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 050300Z8 POSITION 17.0S8 176.7E1 TROPICAL CYCLONE 35P (JUNE) IS TRACKING SOUTH- SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE SOUTHWEST PACIFIC BASIN. THE SYSTEM IS BEING WEAKENED BY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 35P CURRENTLY DISPLAYS A TOTALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION BEING DISPLACED 170 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC. WARNING INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED ON A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF SLIGHTLY LESS THAN T3.0 (45 KNOTS). THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW. TC 35P (JUNE) IS FORECAST TO BE DISSIPATED BY THE 36-HOUR FORECAST POSITION AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE WEAKENED BY SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z5 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z4 (DTG 050751Z8), 051500Z1 (DTG 051351Z5), 052100Z8 (DTG 051951Z1) AND 060300Z9 (DTG 060151Z3).// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 970505 09:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 35P (JUNE) WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 050600Z1 --- 17.7S5 176.6E0 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 17.7S5 176.6E0 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z4 --- 18.5S4 176.1E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z2 --- 19.3S3 175.5E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 050900Z4 POSITION 17.9S7 176.5E9 TROPICAL CYCLONE 35P (JUNE) IS TRACKING SOUTH- SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE SOUTHWEST PACIFIC BASIN. THE SYSTEM ORGANIZATION HAS CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS DUE TO SIGNIFICANT UPPER-LEVEL NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 35P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD AND TO BE DISSIPATED BY THE 24-HOUR FORECAST POSITION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z1 IS 15 FEET. WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED EVERY 12 HOURS UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. NEXT WARNING AT 052100Z8 (DTG 051951Z1).// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 970505 21:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 35P (JUNE) WARNING NR 012 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 051800Z4 --- 18.4S3 175.0E3 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 18.4S3 175.0E3 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z2 --- 18.6S5 173.2E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 052100Z8 POSITION 18.5S4 174.5E7 TROPICAL CYCLONE 35P (JUNE) IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE DEEPEST CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS SHEARED OVER 200 NM AWAY FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND WILL DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 12 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS 15 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
Document: june.htm
Updated: 26th December 2006 |
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