Tropical
Cyclones
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Tropical Cyclone GILLIAN [Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere] |
WTPS21 PGTW 970210 01:30z CORRECTED SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 100130Z FEB 97// RMKS/ 1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA 2. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY AND AMEMBASSY HONIARA SOLOMON ISLANDS 3. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 090 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.3S7 150.6E2 TO 16.0S7 147.2E4 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 092330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.9S3 149.4E8. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS. 4. REMARKS: A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING IN THE CORAL SEA SOUTHWEST OF PORT MORESBY. CONVECTION HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY IN BOTH AREAL COVERAGE AND ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM CURRENTLY HAS GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND IS SITUATED IN A REGION OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. 5. JUSTIFICATION: CORRECTS MESSAGE HEADER. 5. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 110130Z6.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 970210 03:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24P (GILLIAN) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 100000Z1 --- 14.3S8 149.5E9 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S8 149.5E9 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z4 --- 15.2S8 148.3E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z2 --- 15.9S5 147.5E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 020 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 015 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z5 --- 16.7S4 146.9E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 020 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z3 --- 17.6S4 146.4E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 010 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 025 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 100300Z4 POSITION 14.5S0 149.2E6 TROPICAL CYCLONE 24P (GILLIAN) HAS FORMED IN THE CORAL SEA EAST OF AUSTRALIA=S CAPE YORK PENINSULA AND IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS. WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 092330Z VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE. GILLIAN HAS SHOWN A TREND FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION. THIS TREND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS, THEN SLOW. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE A GENERAL SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION, BUT DECELERATE DUE TO WEAKER STEERING FLOW AS IT MOVES THROUGH A WEAKENED PORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU 100130Z FEB 97 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 100130) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z7 (DTG 101353Z3) AND 110300Z5 (DTG 110153Z1).// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 970210 09:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24P (GILLIAN) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 100600Z7 --- 14.9S4 149.0E4 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S4 149.0E4 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z0 --- 16.5S2 148.6E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 035 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 025 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z8 --- 17.9S7 148.6E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 010 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 040 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z1 --- 19.2S2 148.7E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 015 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 040 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z9 --- 20.5S7 148.9E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 010 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 035 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z0 --- 22.4S8 149.5E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 025 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 100900Z0 POSITION 15.3S9 148.9E2 TROPICAL CYCLONE 24P (GILLIAN) IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS. WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 100530Z VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. GILLIAN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING UNTIL IT NEARS THE AUSTRALIAN COAST IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. A GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE SOUTH IS FORECAST THROUGH 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z7 (DTG 101353Z3), 102100Z4 (DTG 101953Z9), 110300Z5 (DTG 110153Z1), AND 110900Z1 (DTG 110753Z7).// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 970210 15:00z CORRECTED IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24P (GILLIAN) WARNING NR 003A RELOCATED CORRECTED 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 101200Z4 --- 15.6S2 149.8E2 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 030 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S2 149.8E2 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z2 --- 16.7S4 150.1E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 030 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z5 --- 17.8S6 150.3E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 015 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 045 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z3 --- 19.3S3 150.6E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 020 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 055 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z6 --- 20.6S8 150.8E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 025 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 055 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z7 --- 22.6S0 151.1E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 020 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 055 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 101500Z7 POSITION 15.9S5 149.9E3 TROPICAL CYCLONE 24P (GILLIAN) IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AS THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE ON ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS BECOME LARGER IN AREAL EXTENT AND TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED SLIGHTLY. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW A GENERAL SOUTHWARD TRACK DUE TO NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW. A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH CELL, AS DEPICTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF TC 24P (GILLIAN) AND IS EXPECTED TO FACILITATE INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS IS A RELOCATED WARNING BASED ON A 100753Z SATELLITE-BASED MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I) ANALYSIS AND SYNOPTIC DATA FROM WILLIS ISLETS (WMO 94299). NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z4 (DTG 101953Z9), 110300Z5 (DTG 110153Z1), 110900Z1 (DTG 110753Z7) AND 111500Z8 (DTG 111353Z4). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 12 FEET. JUSTIFICATION: WRONG TC NUMBER IN REMARKS.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 970210 21:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24P (GILLIAN) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 101800Z0 --- 16.0S7 150.0E6 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 030 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S7 150.0E6 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z8 --- 16.8S5 150.2E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 035 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z1 --- 18.0S9 150.1E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 015 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 045 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z9 --- 19.4S4 149.8E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 020 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 055 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z2 --- 21.0S3 149.4E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 025 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 060 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z3 --- 23.4S9 149.1E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 020 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE OVER WATER 055 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 102100Z4 POSITION 16.2S9 150.0E6 TROPICAL CYCLONE 24P (GILLIAN) IS MOVING SOUTH- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DUE TO INCREASED NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW AFTER 24 HOURS. OVERALL MOTION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHERLY DUE TO NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST OF TC 24P (GILLIAN). NEXT WARNINGS AT 110300Z5 (DTG 110153Z1), 110900Z1 (DTG 110753Z7), 111500Z8 (DTG 111351Z2), AND 112100Z5 (DTG 111953Z0). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 12 FEET.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 970211 03:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24P (GILLIAN) WARNING NR 005 RELOCATED 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 110000Z2 --- 16.0S7 149.1E5 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 040 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S7 149.1E5 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z5 --- 16.7S4 149.1E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 040 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z3 --- 17.3S1 149.1E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 035 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z6 --- 17.9S7 149.1E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 035 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z4 --- 18.5S4 149.1E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z5 --- 19.6S6 149.1E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT --- REMARKS: 110300Z5 POSITION 16.2S9 149E5 TROPICAL CYCLONE 24P (GILLIAN) IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW FROM A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED RIDGE TO THE EAST. THIS WILL CAUSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 24P (GILLIAN) TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHWARD AT A SLOW SPEED. WARNING POSITION HAS BEEN RELOCATED TO THE WEST BASED ON SYNOPTIC REPORTS FROM WILLIS ISLAND AND HOLMES REEF. VISUAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS UNDER MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DUE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHEASTERN AUSTRALIA. THIS HAS ARRESTED THE SYSTEMS DEVELOPMENT AND SHOULD CAUSE IT TO BEGIN WEAKENING AFTER 24 HOURS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z1 (DTG 110753Z7), 111500Z8 (DTG 111353Z4), 112100Z5 (DTG 111953Z0) AND 120300Z6 (DTG 120153Z2). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 12 FEET.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 970211 09:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24P (GILLIAN) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 110600Z8 --- 17.2S0 148.7E0 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 040 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 17.2S0 148.7E0 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z1 --- 18.5S4 148.1E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 035 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z9 --- 19.5S5 147.1E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z2 --- 20.4S6 145.8E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 110900Z1 POSITION 17.5S3 148.6E9 TROPICAL CYCLONE 24P (GILLIAN) IS MOVING SOUTH- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 8 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS ENCOUNTERING NORTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW WITH A HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24P (GILLIAN) IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN NORTHEASTERN AUSTRALIA WITHIN 24 HOURS AND DISSIPATE OVER LAND. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WILL BEGIN WEAKENING PRIOR TO LANDFALL. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z8 (DTG 111353Z4), 112100Z5 (DTG 111953Z0), 120300Z6 (DTG 120153Z2) AND 120900Z2 (DTG 120753Z8). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 12 FEET.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 970211 15:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24P (GILLIAN) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 111200Z5 --- 17.5S3 148.6E9 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 040 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S3 148.6E9 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z3 --- 18.8S7 147.9E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 040 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z6 --- 20.0S2 146.7E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z4 --- 21.1S4 145.3E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 111500Z8 POSITION 17.8S6 148.4E7 TROPICAL CYCLONE 24P (GILLIAN) IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 5 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY DISORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS DUE TO MODERATE UPPER-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE WARNING INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED ON A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF SLIGHTLY LESS THAN T3.0 (45 KNOTS). THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER NORTHEASTERN AUSTRALIA BETWEEN THE 24- AND THE 36-HOUR FORECAST POSITION AND TO BE DISSIPATED BY THE 36-HOUR FORECAST POSITION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120300Z6 (DTG 120153Z2), 120900Z2 (DTG 120753Z8), 121500Z9 (DTG 121353Z5), AND 122100Z6 (DTG 121953Z1). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 11/1200Z5 IS 12 FEET.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 970211 21:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24P (GILLIAN) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 111800Z1 --- 18.3S2 148.3E6 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 18.3S2 148.3E6 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z9 --- 19.7S7 147.4E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z2 --- 21.3S6 146.4E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z0 --- 22.7S1 145.4E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 112100Z5 POSITION 18.7S6 148.1E4 TROPICAL CYCLONE 24P (GILLIAN) IS TRACKING SOUTH- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 8 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LOSE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AS IT TRACKS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST COAST OF AUSTRALIA. TC 24P IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVERLAND AND TO BE DISSIPATED BY THE 36-HOUR FORECAST POSITION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120300Z6 (DTG 120153Z2), 120900Z2 (DTG 120753Z8), 121500Z9 (DTG 121353Z5) AND 122100Z6 (DTG 121953Z1). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 11/1800Z1 IS 12 FEET.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 970212 03:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24P (GILLIAN) WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 120000Z3 --- 18.2S1 147.2E4 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S1 147.2E4 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z6 --- 19.0S0 145.9E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z4 --- 19.4S4 145.2E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 120300Z6 POSITION 18.4S3 146.9E0 TROPICAL CYCLONE 24P (GILLIAN) IS TRACKING WESTWARD AT 9 KNOTS. THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS HAS SHEARED AWAY FROM THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO TAKE A MORE WESTWARD TRACK IN RESPONSE TO LOW LEVEL STEERING FLOW. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24P (GILLIAN) WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN NORTHEASTERN AUSTRALIA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE POSITION IS BASED ON A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE FIXES AND SYNOPTIC REPORTS FROM LUCINDA PT (WMO 942950). NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z2 (DTG 120753Z8), 121500Z9 (DTG 121353Z5) AND 122100Z6 (DTG 121953Z1). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 12 FEET.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 970212 09:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24P (GILLIAN) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 120600Z9 --- 18.5S4 146.4E5 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER. REPEAT POSIT: 18.5S4 146.4E5 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z2 --- 19.0S0 145.6E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND. VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z0 --- 19.4S4 145.1E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND. --- REMARKS: 120900Z2 POSITION 18.6S5 146.2E3 TROPICAL CYCLONE 24P (GILLIAN) IS TRACKING WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 8 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM WAS APPROACHING LANDFALL AT FORECAST TIME AND WILL BE DISSIPATED OVER LAND WITHIN 24 HOURS. WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE DATA AND SYNOPTIC REPORTS FROM LUCINDA PT (WMO 942950) AND CARDWELL (WMO 942920). NEXT WARNINGS AT 121500Z9 (DTG 121353Z5), 122100Z6 (DTG 121953Z1) AND 130300Z7 (DTG 130153Z3). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 12 FEET.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 970212 15:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24P (GILLIAN) WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 121200Z6 --- 18.9S8 146.8E9 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S8 146.8E9 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z4 --- 19.9S9 146.2E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 121500Z9 POSITION 19.2S2 146.6E7 TROPICAL CYCLONE 24P (GILLIAN) IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 3 KNOTS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 12/0730Z3 SHOWED THE PRESENCE OF A WEAKLY DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH NO DEEP CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY DISORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 12/1200Z6 IS 12 FEET.//
Document: gillian.htm
Updated: 26th December 2006 |
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