Tropical
Cyclones
[Index] |
Tropical Cyclone FREDA [Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere] |
WTPS21 PGTW 970124 00:30z SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 240021Z JAN 97// RMKS/ 1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA 2. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.0S9 170.5E3 TO 23.0S5 172.0E0 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 232330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 19.3S3 171.0E9. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 03 KNOTS. 3. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWEST PACIFIC OCEAN APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING AND BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. SCATTEROMETRY AS OF 23/1200Z SUPPORTS THE PRESENCE OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THIS AREA. DURING THE PAST 48 HOURS A LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION HAS BEEN VISIBLE ON AND OFF THROUGH THE CIRRUS COVERAGE. SYNOPTIC AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THIS CIRCULATION IS GETTING CLOSER TO THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD. 4. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 250030Z0.// ========================================================================= WTPS21 PGTW 970125 00:30z CORRECTED SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION 250021Z JAN 97// REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/240021Z JAN 97// REF/B/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/250021Z JAN 97// NARR/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 240030). REF B IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WPTXS21 PGTW 250030).// RMKS/ 1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA 2. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE HAS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER WHICH IS 119 NM SOUTH OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION. WATER VAPOR DERIVED WINDS INDICATE MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE DISTURBANCE. WHILE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, THE DISTURBANCE IS NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 3. JUSTIFICATION: MESSAGE CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT HEADER. NULLIFIES REF B.// ========================================================================= WTPS21 PGTW 970125 21:00z SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 252051Z JAN 97// RMKS/ 1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR 2. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 190 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20.1S3 172.8E8 TO 21.9S2 175.7E0 WITHIN THE NEXT 03 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA AT 251800Z INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 21.2S5 173.4E5. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS. 3. REMARKS: CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE WEST OF FIJI HAS INCREASED AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES EXCELLENT ANTICYLONIC OUTFLOW ALOFT WHICH IS ENHANCING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. GOOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL FLOW IS ALSO ENHANCING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INTO THIS DISTURBANCE. SYNOPTIC DATA FROM MATTHEW ISLAND (WMO 91598) INDICATES THE LOW- LEVEL CIRCULATION IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION. 4. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 262100Z1.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 970126 03:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 260000Z8 --- 21.0S3 174.5E7 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 21.0S3 174.5E7 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z1 --- 21.4S7 175.0E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 050 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z9 --- 21.9S2 175.6E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 025 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 060 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z2 --- 23.0S5 176.3E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 060 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z0 --- 24.6S2 176.6E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 055 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z1 --- 26.7S5 175.9E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 045 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 260300Z1 POSITION 21.1S4 174.6E8 TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P HAS DEVELOPED SOUTHWEST OF FIJI. SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY DUE TO EXCELLENT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND GOOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL FLOW AT THE LOWER LEVELS. BY THE 48 HOUR POSITION, SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED WITHIN A MODERATE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND WILL BE INFLUENCED PRIMARILY BY SHALLOW- AND MID-LEVEL STEERING. WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON A SATELLITE DERIVED DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS). FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR A LARGER THAN AVERAGE SIZE TROPICAL CYCLONE. NEXT WARNINGS AT 261500Z4 (DTG 261351Z8) AND 270300Z2 (DTG 270151Z6). THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU 252051Z JAN 97 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 252100). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z IS 12 FEET.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 970126 09:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 260600Z4 --- 21.4S7 175.2E5 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 045 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 21.4S7 175.2E5 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z7 --- 22.3S7 176.4E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 050 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z5 --- 23.4S9 177.3E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 025 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 060 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z8 --- 24.7S3 177.9E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 025 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 060 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z6 --- 26.0S8 178.0E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 055 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z7 --- 27.9S8 176.2E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 045 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 260900Z7 POSITION 21.6S9 175.5E8 TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY FURTHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO EXCELLENT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND GOOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL FLOW AT THE LOWER LEVELS. BY 48 HOURS, SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED WITHIN A MODERATE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THEREFORE, TC 22P WILL BE INFLUENCED PRIMARILY BY THE SHALLOW AND MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW. WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON A DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS). CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON SYNOPTIC DATA. AS UPPER AND LOWER LEVEL CONDITIONS REMAIN FURTHER. NEXT WARNINGS AT 261500Z4 (DTG 261351Z8), 262100Z1 (DTG 261951Z4) AND 270300Z2 (DTG270151Z6), AND 270900Z8 (DTG 270751Z2). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z IS 15 FEET.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 970126 15:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (FREDA) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 261200Z1 --- 21.5S8 176.0E4 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 060 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 21.5S8 176.0E4 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z9 --- 22.2S6 177.4E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 065 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z2 --- 23.3S8 178.4E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 020 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 070 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z0 --- 24.7S3 179.0E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 020 NM ELSEWHERE RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 075 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z3 --- 26.1S9 179.4E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 075 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z4 --- 28.6S6 179.5E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 075 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 261500Z4 POSITION 21.7S0 176.3E7 TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (FREDA) IS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS. WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 261130Z INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. CURRENT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED USING 200641Z MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY. FREDA IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY TROUGH 24 HOURS, THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN. THE FORECAST TRACK GRADUALLY TURNS TOWARD THE SOUTH WITH TIME IN RESPONSE TO STEERING FLOW AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 262100Z1 (DTG 261951Z4), 270300Z2 (DTG 270151Z6), 270900Z8 (DTG 270751Z2), AND 271500Z5 (DTG 271351Z9).// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 970126 21:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (FREDA) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 261800Z7 --- 22.1S5 176.6E0 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 060 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 22.1S5 176.6E0 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z5 --- 23.1S6 177.9E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 065 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z8 --- 24.3S9 178.9E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 070 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z6 --- 25.4S1 179.6E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 070 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z9 --- 26.7S5 179.7W4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 070 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z0 --- 29.0S1 178.5W1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 070 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 262100Z1 POSITION 22.4S8 176.9E3 TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (FREDA) IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION AND SATELLITE-DERIVED CURRENT INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS ARE BASED ON 261730Z INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH IS EXPECTED, WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN INTENSITY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITHIN 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270300Z2 (DTG 27051Z6), 270900Z8 (DTG 270751Z2), 271500Z5 (DTG 271351Z9), AND 272100Z2 (DTG 271951Z5).// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 970127 03:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (FREDA) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 270000Z9 --- 23.1S6 176.3E7 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 065 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 23.1S6 176.3E7 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z2 --- 24.2S8 176.7E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 065 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z0 --- 25.1S8 177.0E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 065 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z3 --- 26.0S8 177.1E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 065 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z1 --- 26.7S5 176.6E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 070 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z3 --- 27.1S0 175.1E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 270300Z2 POSITION 23.4S9 176.4E8 TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (FREDA) IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THE SAME TRACK THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AFTERWARDS, INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. THEREFORE, TC 22P (FREDA) IS EXPECT TO BE PRIMARILY INFLUENCED BY THE SHALLOW AND MID LEVEL STEERING FLOW. OUR PRIMARY MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS FORECAST TRACK. AN ALTERNATE LOW-PROBABILITY SCENERIO SUPPORTS THE SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AXIS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270900Z8 (270751Z2), 271500Z5 (DTG 271351Z9), 272100Z2 (271951Z6), AND 280300Z3 (DTG 280151Z7). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z IS 19 FEET.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 970127 09:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMAMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (FREDA) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 270600Z5 --- 23.6S1 176.4E8 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 065 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 23.6S1 176.4E8 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z8 --- 24.3S9 176.5E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 065 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z6 --- 25.0S7 176.6E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 065 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z9 --- 25.8S5 176.3E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 065 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z7 --- 26.2S0 175.8E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 070 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z9 --- 26.6S4 174.6E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 270900Z8 POSITION 23.8S3 176.4E8 TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (FREDA) IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 22P (FREDA) IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A SLOW SOUTHWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. AFTERWARDS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO A HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THEREFORE, SYSTEM WILL BE PRIMARILY INFLUENCED BY THE SHALLOW AND MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW. NEXT WARNINGS AT 271500Z5 (DTG 271351Z9), 272100Z2 (DTG 271951Z5), 270300Z2 (DTG 270151Z60, AND 280900Z9 (DTG 280751Z3). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 20 FEET.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 970127 15:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (FREDA) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 271200Z2 --- 24.1S7 176.5E9 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 065 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 24.1S7 176.5E9 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z0 --- 25.1S8 176.6E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 065 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z3 --- 26.2S0 176.4E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 065 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z1 --- 27.0S9 176.1E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 065 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z4 --- 28.0S0 175.7E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 070 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z6 --- 29.6S7 174.8E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 070 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 271500Z5 POSITION 24.4S0 176.5E9 TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (FREDA) IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH AT 05 KNOTS. WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 271040Z INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. FREDA IS STILL FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH- SOUTHWEST. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P IS FORECAST TO BEGIN DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER WITHIN 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280300Z3 (DTG 280151Z7) AND 281500Z6 (DTG 281351Z0).// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 970128 03:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (FREDA) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 280000Z0 --- 25.7S4 177.3E8 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 065 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 25.7S4 177.3E8 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z3 --- 27.0S9 177.9E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 065 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z1 --- 28.4S4 178.0E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 065 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z4 --- 29.5S6 177.4E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 065 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z3 --- 30.7S0 176.8E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 065 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 280300Z3 POSITION 26.0S8 177.4E9 TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (FREDA) IS TRACKING SOUTH- SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE SOUTHWEST PACIFIC OCEAN. FREDA IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TRACKING SOUTHWARD NEAR THE 24-HOUR FORECAST POSITION AND TO WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. NEXT WARNINGS AT 281500Z6 (DTG 281351Z0) AND 290300Z4 (DTG 290151Z8). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 28/0000Z0 IS 18 FEET.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 970128 15:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (FREDA) WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 281200Z3 --- 27.5S4 178.2E8 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 065 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 27.5S4 178.2E8 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z1 --- 29.3S4 178.6E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 065 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z4 --- 30.6S9 178.5E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 065 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z3 --- 31.6S0 178.1E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 065 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z6 --- 32.4S9 177.6E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 065 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 281500Z6 POSITION 27.9S8 178.3E9 TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (FREDA) IS MOVING SOUTH- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS. OUR WARNING INTENSITY AND LOCATION ARE BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY ANALYSIS AS OF 28/1130Z SUPPORTING THE PRESENCE OF 65 KNOT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS (DVORAK T4.0). TC 22P IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THIS INTENSITY THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN SLOWLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290300Z4 (DTG 290151Z8) AND 291500Z7 (DTG 291351Z1). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z3 IS 20 FEET.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 970129 03:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (FREDA) WARNING NR 010 RELOCATED 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 290000Z1 --- 26.5S3 178.3E9 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 065 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 26.5S3 178.3E9 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z4 --- 26.8S6 178.6E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 065 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z3 --- 27.2S1 178.8E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 065 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z6 --- 28.3S3 178.5E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 310000Z4 --- 29.6S7 177.4E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 290300Z4 POSITION 26.6S4 178.4E0 TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (FREDA) IS QUASI-STATIONARY IN THE SOUTHWEST PACIFIC OCEAN. THE WARNING POSITION IS RELOCATED DUE TO VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING AN ELONGATED, EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION LOCATED 120 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TURN SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND TO WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 22P IS FORECAST TO BE DISSIPATED BY THE 48-HOUR FORECAST POSITION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 291500Z7 (DTG 291351Z1) AND 300300Z6 (DTG 300151Z0). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 29/0000Z1 IS 17 FEET.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 970129 15:00z 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (FREDA) WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHEASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 291200Z4 --- 26.4S2 179.2W9 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 085 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 065 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 26.4S2 179.2W9 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z3 --- 27.0S9 177.1W6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 065 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z6 --- 27.8S7 175.8W1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 310000Z4 --- 28.5S5 175.1W4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 311200Z7 --- 29.0S1 174.7W9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 291500Z7 POSITION 26.6S4 178.7W3 TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (FREDA) IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS AND HAS JUST CROSSED THE DATELINE. OUR CURRENT INTENSITY AND WARNING POSITION ARE BASED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY ANALYSIS AS OF 29/1130Z. THIS ANALYSIS SUPPORTS THE PRESENCE OF 45 KNOT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS (DVORAK CI 3.0). CERTAIN ASPECTS OF THE ANALYSIS INDICATE THE SYSTEM MAY BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN THIS, AND IT IS WEAKENING AT THIS TIME. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY ON ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND APPEARS TO BE SHEARED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION. WE EXPECT TC 22P TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AND DISSIPATE OVER WATER WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. DUE TO THIS SYSTEM CROSSING THE DATELINE THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU). NEXT WARNING WILL BE ISSUED BY NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI (SEE WHPS31 PHNC 300300). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z4 IS 15 FEET.// ========================================================================= warning 012 not available ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 970131 09:00z 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (FREDA) WARNING NR 013 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 310600Z0 --- 28.7S7 179.7E4 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 250 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE 200 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 28.7S7 179.7E4 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 311800Z3 --- 28.5S5 178.9E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 250 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE 200 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z7 --- 28.7S7 178.3E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 240 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE 190 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z0 --- 28.9S9 177.9E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 230 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE 180 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 02 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z8 --- 29.2S3 177.5E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 310900Z3 POSITION 28.6S6 179.5E2 TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (FREDA) HAS BEEN REGENERATED DUE TO SYNOPTIC REPORTS OF GALE FORCE WINDS. TC 22P (FREDA) IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS INDICATES THAT DEEPER CONVECTION HAS MOVED INTO THE SYSTEM=S CENTER. ADDITIONALLY, THE SYSTEM DISPLAYS SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE DIRECT INTERACTION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW, WHICH HAS FACILITATED A SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY QUASI-STATIONARY WITH A SLOW WESTWARD DRIFT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT GRADUALLY WEAKENS. WARNING INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS BASED ON A 310000Z SYNOPTIC SHIP REPORT OF 45 KNOTS (EQUIVALENT 1-MIN WIND AVERAGE EQUAL TO 51 KNOTS). CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A 301103Z SCATTEROMETER PASS AS WELL AS 310000Z SYNOPTIC SHIP REPORTS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 312100Z7 (DTG 311951Z0) AND 010900Z0 (DTG 310751Z4).MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310600Z IS 20 FEET.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 970131 21:00z 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (FREDA) WARNING NR 014 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHEASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 311800Z3 --- 29.1S2 178.4W0 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 200 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 29.1S2 178.4W0 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z7 --- 30.4S7 177.4W9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 200 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z0 --- 31.6S0 176.6W0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 190 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z8 --- 32.9S4 175.9W2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 180 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z1 --- 34.3S0 175.5W8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 312100Z7 POSITION 29.4S5 178.1W7 TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (FREDA) IS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 09 KNOTS. WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 311730Z INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SURFACE SHIP REPORTS. FREDA IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE A GENERAL MOTION TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD AND COMPLETE TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM WITHIN 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311800Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010300Z4 (DTG 010151Z8) AND 011500Z7 (DTG 011351Z0).// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 970201 03:00z 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (FREDA) WARNING NR 015 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHEASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 010000Z1 --- 28.9S9 178.7W3 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 200 NM ELSEWHERE REPEAT POSIT: 28.9S9 178.7W3 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z4 --- 29.6S7 177.8W3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 200 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z2 --- 30.3S6 176.9W3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z5 --- 31.4S8 175.9W2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z3 --- 32.6S1 174.9W1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 010300Z4 POSITION 29.1S2 178.5W1 TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (FREDA) IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 3 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY DISPLAYS A TOTALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SYNOPTIC SHIP DATA SURROUNDING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. TC 22P IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AND TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL NEAR THE 48- HOUR FORECAST POSITION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 011500Z7 (DTG 011351Z1) AND 020300Z5 (DTG 020151Z9). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 01/0000Z1 IS 17 FEET.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 970201 15:00z 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (FREDA) WARNING NR 016 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHEASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 011200Z4 --- 30.1S4 177.0W5 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL REPEAT POSIT: 30.1S4 177.0W5 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z2 --- 31.6S0 175.4W7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z5 --- 33.3S9 174.3W5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z3 --- 35.2S0 173.6W7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 011500Z7 POSITION 30.5S8 176.6W0 TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (FREDA) IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS. IT MOVED PAST RAOUL (WMO 93994) DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS, WHERE A 989 MB SEA LEVEL PRESSURE WAS REPORTED. THIS SYNOPTIC DATA WOULD CORRESPOND TO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 0F 48 KNOTS, ALTHOUGH WINDS REPORTED AT RAOUL WERE ONLY IN THE 20 KNOT RANGE. OUR CURRENT WARNING INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON INFRARED IMAGERY ANALYSIS INDICATING 35 KNOT WINDS (MILLER AND LANDER XT2.5) AS OF 1130Z. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THIS SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHILE IT SLOWLY WEAKENS. WE EXPECT EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION TO BE COMPLETE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020300Z5 (DTG 020151Z9) AND 021500Z8 (DTG 021351Z2). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z4 IS 16 FEET.
Document: freda.htm
Updated: 26th December 2006 |
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