Tropical
Cyclones
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Tropical Cyclone CYRIL [Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere] |
WTPS21 PGTW 961122 15:00z SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 221451Z NOV 96// RMKS/ 1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA 2. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY AND AMEMBASSY HONIARA SOLOMON ISLANDS 3. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 085 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.1S2 159.8E3 TO 12.7S0 162.3E2 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA AT 221200Z INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 10.1S2 159.9E4. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS. 4. REMARKS: BOTH ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS FORMED IN THE SOLOMON ISLANDS JUST SOUTH OF GUADALCANAL AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS. SURFACE SYNOPTIC REPORTS FROM THE SOLOMONS AT 221200Z ALSO SUPPORT THE CURRENT POSITIONING OF THIS SYSTEM. WINDS HAD INCREASED TO NEAR 25 KNOTS OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT SAN CRISTOBAL IN THE SOLOMONS AS OF 221200Z. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION OF THIS SYSTEM. GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND LIGHT UPPER-LEVEL WIND SHEAR ARE PRESENT ALOFT. THE LEVEL OF CONVECTION WAS INCREASING WITH THIS SYSTEM. 5. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 231500Z1.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 961123 09:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 230600Z1 --- 13.3S7 160.7E4 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 13.3S7 160.7E4 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z4 --- 15.7S3 161.2E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 040 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z2 --- 18.3S2 161.2E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 050 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z5 --- 21.2S5 162.1E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 060 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 17 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z3 --- 23.7S2 164.6E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 070 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 230900Z4 POSITION 13.9S3 160.8E5 TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 12 KNOTS. VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT IT HAS REACHED AN INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS BASED ON 230530Z3 IMAGERY ANALYSIS (DVORAK T2.5). THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, ALTHOUGH NEAR 48 HOURS IT MAY TURN SOUTHEASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING STEERING FLOW FROM MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z8 (DTG 231951Z1) AND 240900Z5 (DTG 240751Z9). THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU 221451Z NOV 96 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 221500). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z1 IS 12 FEET.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 961123 21:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (CYRIL) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 231800Z4 --- 15.6S2 161.1E9 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S2 161.1E9 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z2 --- 17.9S7 161.3E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 040 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z5 --- 20.1S3 161.4E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 050 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z3 --- 22.0S4 162.7E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE 060 NM ELSEWHERE VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z6 --- 23.2S7 164.7E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE 070 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 232100Z8 POSITION 16.2S9 161.1E9 TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (CYRIL) IS TRACKING SOUTH- SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE CORAL SEA. TC 06P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD NEW CALEDONIA AND TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z5 (DTG 240751Z9) AND 242100Z9 (DTG 241951Z2). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 23/1800Z4 IS 12 FEET.// ========================================================================= warning 003 not available ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 961124 21:00z CORRECTED IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (CYRIL) WARNING NR 004A AMENDED 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 241800Z5 --- 17.6S4 161.4E2 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S4 161.4E2 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z3 --- 18.0S9 161.5E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z6 --- 18.7S6 161.9E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z4 --- 19.3S3 162.9E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z7 --- 20.0S2 164.8E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 242100Z9 POSITION 17.7S5 161.4E2 TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (CYRIL) IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT APPROXIMATELY 02 KNOTS. THIS WARNING IS AMENDED DUE TO A SIGNIFICANT REPOSITIONING OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. STRONGER THAN EXPECTED UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE SHEARED THE DEEP CONVECTION AWAY FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER, AND THIS WAS NOT IDENTIFIED UNTIL CONFIRMED BY VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING. OUR CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT LOCATION IS HIGH. DUE TO THE NATURE OF THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WE ANTICIPATE THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE WEAKENING. THE ADDITIONAL FACTOR OF COOL OCEAN WATER SHOULD ONLY CONTRIBUTE TO THIS WEAKENING TREND. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250900Z6 (DTG 250751Z0) AND 252100Z0 (DTG 251951Z3). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z5 IS 14 FEET.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 961125 09:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (CYRIL) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 250600Z3 --- 18.3S2 160.6E3 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM REPEAT POSIT: 18.3S2 160.6E3 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z6 --- 19.1S1 160.2E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z4 --- 20.0S2 160.5E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z7 --- 20.8S0 161.0E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z5 --- 21.4S7 161.6E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 250900Z6 POSITION 18.5S4 160.5E2 TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (CYRIL) IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT APPROXIMATELY 05 KNOTS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS EXPOSED AND THE SYSTEM IS WEAKENING. COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PREVENT TC 06P FROM RE-INTENSIFYING, ALTHOUGH CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER HAS SLIGHTLY INCREASED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 252100Z0 (DTG 251951Z3) AND 260900Z7 (DTG 260751Z1). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z3 IS 13 FEET.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 961125 21:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (CYRIL) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 251800Z6 --- 19.2S2 160.9E6 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 19.2S2 160.9E6 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z4 --- 20.0S2 161.7E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z7 --- 20.9S1 162.8E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z5 --- 21.7S0 163.6E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 252100Z0 POSITION 19.4S4 161.1E9 TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (CYRIL) IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE CORAL SEA NEAR NEW CALEDONIA. TC 06P REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG UPPER-LEVEL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WHICH IS PREVENTING THE SYSTEM FROM INTENSIFYING. TC 06P IS FORECAST TO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER- LEVEL SHEAR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AND WILL BE DISSIPATED BY THE 36-HOUR FORECAST POSITION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260900Z7 (DTG 260751Z1) AND 262100Z1 (DTG 261951Z4). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z6 IS 13 FEET.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 961126 09:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (CYRIL) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 260600Z4 --- 20.0S2 163.7E7 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 20.0S2 163.7E7 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z7 --- 20.5S7 166.3E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 260900Z7 POSITION 20.1S3 164.4E5 TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (CYRIL) IS HEADING EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 10 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
Document: cyril.htm
Updated: 26th December 2006 |
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