[Index]
Tropical Cyclone CHANTELLE
[Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere]
| Tropical
Cyclones
[Index] |
Tropical Cyclone CHANTELLE [Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere] |
WTXS21 PGTW 961123 04:00z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 230353Z NOV 96//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS OF 7.5S2 95.0E4 WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS
TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 30
KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 222330Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 6.9S5 95.0E4. THE
SYSTEM IS QUASI-STATIONARY.
2. REMARKS: A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHERN INDIAN
OCEAN IS BEGINNING TO CONSOLIDATE. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF A WELL-DEFINED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION. DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THIS CIRCULATION
HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AND THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS MOVING CLOSER TO THE DEEP CONVECTION.
SATELLITE IMAGERY ANALYSIS INDICATES THIS SYSTEM HAS
ORGANIZED SLIGHTLY DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS, AND
SUPPORTS THE PRESENCE OF 25 KNOT WINDS (DVORAK T1.0). THE
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 240400Z0.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 961124 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z6 --- 6.4S0 92.5E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 6.4S0 92.5E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z9 --- 6.5S1 91.3E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z7 --- 7.0S7 89.8E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z0 --- 8.1S9 87.8E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z8 --- 9.6S5 85.5E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
240300Z9 POSITION 6.4S0 92.2E3
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S HAS FORMED IN THE SOUTHERN INDIAN
OCEAN. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS. VISIBLE AND
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY ANALYSES SUPPORT THE
PRESENCE OF WINDS OF UP TO 30 KNOTS (DVORAK T2.0). A SHIP
LOCATED NEAR 11.8S0 90.5E4, APPROXIMATELY 350 NM
SOUTHWEST OF TC 07S, REPORTED WINDS OF 33 KNOTS IN A BAND
OF SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THAT MAY WRAP INTO TC 07S WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THIS SHIP OBSERVATION ALSO INDICATES
THAT THE WIND SPEED IN THIS BAND IS INCREASING; A
23/1645Z SCATTEROMETRY PASS ONLY INDICATED 15 TO 25 KNOT
WINDS IN THE SAME AREA AS THE SHIP. THE STRENGTH OF THE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WHICH HAS UNTIL NOW INHIBITED THE
DEVELOPMENT OF TC 07S APPEARS TO HAVE DECREASED DURING
THE PAST FEW HOURS AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SLOWLY
DIMINISHING IN THE IMMEDIATE FUTURE. THE COMBINED EFFECT
OF DIMINISHING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND THE NEAR GALE
FORCE WINDS THAT ARE APPROACHING THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
RESULT IN 35 KNOT WINDS OR GREATER WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS, THUS PROMPTING THE ISSUANCE OF THIS INITIAL
WARNING. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 241500Z2 (DTG 241353Z8) AND 250300Z0
(DTG 250153Z6). THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS
NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU 230323Z NOV 96 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 230330). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z6 IS 11 FEET.//
=========================================================================
warning 002 not available
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 961125 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z7 --- 7.4S1 86.5E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 7.4S1 86.5E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z0 --- 8.0S8 83.6E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z8 --- 8.7S5 81.1E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z1 --- 9.5S4 78.8E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z9 --- 10.4S5 76.6E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
250300Z0 POSITION 7.5S2 85.8E1
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS.
DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS IT HAS FLUCTUATED BRIEFLY IN
INTENSITY, AND AS OF WARNING TIME SATELLITE IMAGERY
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF 35 KNOT
WINDS (DVORAK T2.5). IT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE A SLOW
INTENSIFICATION TREND DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 251500Z3 (DTG 251353Z9) AND 260300Z1 (DTG
260153Z7). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z7
IS 12 FEET.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 961125 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CHANTELLE) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
251200Z0 --- 8.2S0 83.9E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 8.2S0 83.9E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z8 --- 9.2S1 81.7E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z1 --- 10.2S3 79.5E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z9 --- 11.1S3 77.8E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z2 --- 12.1S4 75.9E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
251500Z3 POSITION 8.5S3 83.3E4
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CHANTELLE) IS TRACKING WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN. CHANTELLE IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND TO
INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 260300Z1 (DTG 260153Z7) AND 261500Z4 (DTG 261353Z0).
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 25/1200Z0 IS 13
FEET.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 961126 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CHANTELLE) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
260000Z8 --- 9.2S1 81.9E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 9.2S1 81.9E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z1 --- 10.1S2 79.6E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z9 --- 11.0S2 77.9E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
105 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z2 --- 11.9S1 76.1E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
115 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z0 --- 12.8S1 74.4E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
260300Z1 POSITION 9.4S3 81.3E2
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CHANTALLE) IS HEADING WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SLOW
INTENSIFICATION EXPECTED. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 260000Z IS 16 FEET. REFER TO WWIO30 PGFW FOR
ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 06P WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES. NEXT WARNINGS AT 261500Z4 (DTG 261353Z0) AND
270300Z2 (DTG 270153Z8).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 961126 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CHANTELLE) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
261200Z1 --- 9.0S9 79.8E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 9.0S9 79.8E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z9 --- 9.1S0 77.9E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z2 --- 9.4S3 75.8E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
105 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z0 --- 9.9S8 73.9E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
115 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z3 --- 10.6S7 71.6E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
261500Z4 POSITION 9.0S9 79.3E9
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CHANTELLE) IS MOVING DUE WEST AT 12
KNOTS. TC 07S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AND CONTINUE TO MOVE IN A WESTWARD TO
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DIRECTION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS IT IS FORECAST TO STAY EQUATORWARD OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 261200Z1 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270300Z2 (DTG
270153Z8) AND 271500Z5 (DTG 271353Z1).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 961127 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CHANTELLE) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
270000Z9 --- 8.9S7 77.5E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 8.9S7 77.5E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z2 --- 9.1S0 75.3E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z0 --- 9.4S3 73.6E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z3 --- 9.9S8 71.6E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
105 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z1 --- 10.5S6 69.6E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
270300Z2 POSITION 9.0S9 77.0E4
SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 262330Z INDICATES TROPICAL
CYCLONE 07S (CHANTALLE) REMAINS AT 65 KNOT INTENSITY.
THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING WEST AT 10 KNOTS. A GRADUAL TURN TOWA
RD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED AFTER
24 HOURS, WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION EXPECTED.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z IS 20 FEET.
REFER TO WWIO30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARN
INGS AT 271500Z5 (DTG 271353Z1) AND 280300Z3 (DTG 280153Z9).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 961127 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CHANTELLE) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
270600Z5 --- 8.9S7 77.3E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 8.9S7 77.3E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z8 --- 9.0S9 75.6E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z6 --- 9.3S2 73.7E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z9 --- 9.8S7 71.8E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z7 --- 10.4S5 69.8E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z9 --- 12.1S4 66.4E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
270900Z8 POSITION 8.9S7 76.9E2
SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 270530Z SHOWS TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S
(CHANTELLE) HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY DURING THE PAST SIX
HOURS TO A 60 KNOT INTENSITY AND IS MOVING WESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S HAS SLOWED ITS FORWARD
SPEED IN RESPONSE TO WEAKENING OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE DUE TO PASSAGE OF A MID LATITUDE SYSTEM TO THE
SOUTH. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED
AFTER 12 HOURS AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REBUILDS.
SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH 48 HOURS,
THEN GRADUAL WEAKENING. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 270600Z IS 18 FEET. REFER TO WWIO30 PGFW FOR
ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. WARNING FREQUENCY HAS
BEEN CHANGED FROM TWELVE-HOURLY TO SIX-HOURLY. FORECAST
PERIOD HAS BEEN LENGTHENED FROM 48 HOURS TO 72 HOURS.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 271500Z5 (DTG 271353Z1), 272100Z2 (DTG
271953Z7), 280300Z3 (DTG 280153Z9), AND 280900Z9 (DTG
280753Z5).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 961127 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CHANTELLE) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
271200Z2 --- 8.9S7 76.6E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 8.9S7 76.6E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z0 --- 9.1S0 74.7E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z3 --- 9.5S4 72.7E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z1 --- 10.1S2 70.6E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z4 --- 10.9S0 68.7E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z6 --- 12.9S2 66.7E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
271500Z5 POSITION 9.0S9 76.1E4
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CHANTELLE) IS TRACKING WESTWARD IN
THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
TC 07S HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS AS THE
AREAL EXTENT OF THE CONVECTION HAS INCREASED. TC 07S IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AXIS AND CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD BEFORE GRADUALLY
TURNING TOWARDS THE SOUTH LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z2 IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 272100Z2 (DTG 271953Z7), 280300Z3 (DTG
280153Z9) AND 280900Z9 (DTG 280753Z5).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 961127 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CHANTELLE) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z8 --- 8.9S7 76.0E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 8.9S7 76.0E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z6 --- 9.0S9 74.5E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z9 --- 9.3S2 72.6E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z7 --- 9.9S8 70.5E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z0 --- 10.8S9 68.6E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z2 --- 13.2S6 66.7E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
272100Z2 POSITION 8.9S7 75.6E8
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CHANTELLE) IS TRACKING WESTWARD IN
THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN. FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS IDENTICAL
TO THE PREVIOUS WARNINGS. TC 07S IS EXPECTED TO STAY
EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND CONTINUE ON
A GENERALLY WESTWARD COURSE IN THE EARLY PART OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD BEFORE TURNING MORE SOUTHWARD BY THE 48-
AND 72-HOUR FORECAST POSITIONS. CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON A 27/1730Z SATELLITE ESTIMATE OF 65 KNOTS.
CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON MICROWAVE IMAGERY
ANALYSIS PROVIDED AFGWC. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE AN
EXTRAPOLATION OF CURRENT WIND RADII ALLOWING FOR SOME
EXPANSION DUE TO INTENSIFICATION TC 07S. ASYMMETRIES IN
THE WIND RADII ARE DUE TO FORWARD MOTION OF TC 07S.
BASED ON THIS FORECAST, THE CLOSEST APPROACH TO DIEGO
GARCIA IS ABOUT 120 NM AT THE 24-HOUR FORECAST POSITION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z8 IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 280900Z9 (DTG 280753Z5), 281500Z6
(DTG 281353Z2) AND 282100Z3 (DTG 281953Z8).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 961128 03:00z CORRECTED
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CHANTELLE) WARNING NR 011A
AMENDED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
280000Z0 --- 7.2S9 75.8E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 7.2S9 75.8E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z3 --- 6.6S2 74.3E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z1 --- 6.1S7 72.8E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z4 --- 5.8S3 71.4E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z3 --- 5.6S1 70.1E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z1 --- 5.4S9 67.9E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
280300Z3 POSITION 7.1S8 75.4E6
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AVAILABLE JUST AFTER SUNRISE
INDICATES TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CHANTELLE) HAS BECOME
SIGNIFICANTLY SHEARED OVERNIGHT BY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
NORTHERLY WINDS. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS
BECOMING EXPOSED NORTH OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. OUR
WARNING POSITION IS REPOSITIONED NORTH OF THE LAST GIVEN
POSITION BY APPROXIMATELY 100 NM, AND OUR FORECAST TRACK
AND INTENSITY TREND ARE SIGNIFICANTLY ALTERED FROM THE
PREVIOUS WARNING, THEREFORE WE ARE PROVIDING THIS AMENDED
WARNING. TC 07S REACHED PEAK INTENSITY APPROXIMATELY 24
HOURS AGO AND IS ON A WEAKENING TREND FROM WHICH IT IS
UNLIKELY TO REINTENSIFY. SCATTEROMETER DATA AT 27/1800Z
INDICATE THE TROUGH AXIS NORTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, WHICH IS
SUPPORTED WELL BY THEIR SURFACE AND GRADIENT LEVEL
OBSERVATIONS OF SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. SCATTEROMETER
AND SYNOPTIC DATA ALSO INDICATE TC 07S IS A VERY SMALL
SYSTEM, AND OUR WIND RADII ANALYSIS AND FORECASTS REFLECT
THIS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280900Z9 (DTG 280751Z3), 281500Z6
(DTG 281351Z0), 282100Z3 (DTG 281951Z6) AND 290300Z4 (DTG
290151Z8). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z0 IS
19 FEET. //
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 961128 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CHANTELLE) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z6 --- 6.7S3 75.4E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 6.7S3 75.4E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z9 --- 6.0S6 74.2E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z7 --- 5.5S0 72.8E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z0 --- 5.3S8 71.6E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z9 --- 5.2S7 70.3E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z7 --- 5.1S6 68.2E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
280900Z9 POSITION 6.5S1 75.1E3
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CHANTELLE) CONTINUES TO MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD AND UP THE TROUGH AXIS AS A SHEARING
SYSTEM. IT IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS DUE TO VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SYNOPTIC DATA AND
SCATTEROMETRY INDICATE TC 07S IS A SMALL SYSTEM.
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON VISIBLE AND ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY ANALYSIS SUPPORTING THE
PRESENCE OF 55 KNOT WINDS (DVORAK CI 3.5). NEXT WARNINGS
AT 281500Z6 (DTG 281353Z2), 282100Z3 (DTG 281953Z8),
290300Z4 (DTG 290153Z0) AND 290900Z0 (DTG 290753Z6).
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z6 IS 18 FEET.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 961128 15:00z CORRECTED
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CHANTELLE) WARNING NR 013A
CORRECTED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
281200Z3 --- 6.0S6 74.9E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 6.0S6 74.9E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z1 --- 5.0S5 73.9E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z4 --- 4.6S0 72.8E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z3 --- 4.1S5 71.3E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z6 --- 3.8S1 69.8E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z4 --- 3.3S6 66.5E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
---
REMARKS:
281500Z6 POSITION 5.7S2 74.6E7
JUSTIFICATION FOR COR: WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED EVERY 6
HOURS VICE EVERY 12 HOURS. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S
(CHANTELLE) IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD IN THE SOUTH INDIAN
OCEAN. CHANTELLE CURRENTLY DISPLAYS A TOTALLY EXPOSED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION SHEARED
APPROXIMATELY 40 NM SOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. TC 07S IS FORECAST TO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF STRONG UPPER-LEVEL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD AND TO BE DISSIPATED BY THE 72-HOUR
FORECAST POSITION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 282100Z3 (DTG
281953Z8), 290300Z4 (DTG 290153Z0), 290900Z0 (DTG
290753Z6), AND 291500Z7 (DTG 291353Z3). MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z3 IS 18 FEET.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 961128 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CHANTELLE) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
281800Z9 --- 5.5S0 74.8E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 5.5S0 74.8E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z7 --- 5.0S5 73.9E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z0 --- 4.6S0 72.8E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z9 --- 4.2S6 71.3E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z2 --- 3.9S2 69.7E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
282100Z3 POSITION 5.4S9 74.6E7
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CHANTELLE) IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN
THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN. CHANTELLE CONTINUES TO BE WEAKENED BY
NORTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG UPPER-LEVEL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WHICH WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AND TO BE
DISSIPATED BY THE 48-HOUR FORECAST POSITION. NEXT WARNINGS AT
290300Z4 (DTG 290153Z0), 290900Z0 (DTG 290753Z6), 291500Z7 (DTG
291353Z3) AND 292100Z4 (DTG 291953Z9). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT IS 15 FEET.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 961129 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CHANTELLE) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
290000Z1 --- 4.9S3 74.4E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 4.9S3 74.4E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z4 --- 4.2S6 73.5E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z3 --- 3.7S0 72.4E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z6 --- 3.3S6 71.2E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z1 --- 3.1S4 70.0E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
---
REMARKS:
290300Z4 POSITION 4.7S1 74.2E3
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CHANTELLE) IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS. OUR WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON
SATELLITE IMAGERY ANALYSIS SUPPORTING THE PRESENCE OF 35
KNOT WINDS (DVORAK CI 2.5). VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AS
OF 29/0130Z WAS INCONCLUSIVE IN ESTABLISHING WHETHER TC
07S HAS WEAKENED BELOW 35 KNOTS. CONVECTION NORTH OF
TC 07S HAS FLUCTUATED DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS AND MAY
BE SUSTAINING GALE FORCE WINDS NEAR THE CIRCULATION
CENTER. NEXT WARNING AT 290900Z0 (DTG 290753Z6). MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z1 IS 14 FEET.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 961129 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CHANTELLE) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
290600Z7 --- 3.9S2 73.8E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 3.9S2 73.8E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z0 --- 3.0S3 73.0E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
---
REMARKS:
290900Z0 POSITION 3.7S0 73.6E6
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CHANTELLE) IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD
AT APPROXIMATELY 08 KNOTS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS WEAKENED
DRAMATICALLY DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY AND IS NEARLY
UNDETECTABLE. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY
THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST
GU). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
290600Z7 IS 12 FEET.//
|
Document: chantelle.htm
Updated: 26th December 2006 |
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